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Reposted by Josh Bivens

Elise Gould @elisegould.bsky.social · Aug 1

Big news in today's #jobs report are the revisions. The labor market is much weaker than originally reported the last two months. While payrolls grew 73k in July, May and June data were revised down a total of 258k to 19k and 14k, respectively, bringing 3-month average growth down to 35k.
#EconSky

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Josh Bivens @joshbivens-econ.bsky.social · Aug 1

To me, today's jobs report is what entering a recession looks like. Could we pull up? Sure. But if we look back and end up dating an official recession that starts 3-6 months from now, this is what it would look like today - rapid softening/deterioration in the labor market.

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Josh Bivens @joshbivens-econ.bsky.social · Jun 20

I'm sure somebody has pointed this out already, but, the Trump administration's excitement about 1.7% ytd growth in real average hourly earnings for prod/non-supervisory workers is...weird? Kind of 'meh' relative to what they inherited? For context, last bar on right is what they're so excited about

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Josh Bivens @joshbivens-econ.bsky.social · Jun 12

Finally, I'd just note that part of this disconnect is that many of us don't realize just how much incredibly vital stuff the federal govt does every day. Even small cuts (and the OBBB cuts are not small) to these have dire consequences for human welfare. 11

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Josh Bivens @joshbivens-econ.bsky.social · Jun 12

The parade is big and in-your-face and infuriating, while the OBBB is a boring piece of reconciliation legislation slowly worming its way through Congress. But the OBBB is much more important – folks should focus more attention and advocacy on stopping it. 10

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Josh Bivens @joshbivens-econ.bsky.social · Jun 12

Note that ALL of these things absolutely are happening in the OBB - it's not the "this or that" implied in comparisons of the parade's cost to other social priorities. 9

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Josh Bivens @joshbivens-econ.bsky.social · Jun 12

The OBBB also cuts key investments that would help spur the needed transition to a cleaner energy economy. These cuts could be as high as $460 billion, or almost 3 parades every single day for the next decade. 8

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Josh Bivens @joshbivens-econ.bsky.social · Jun 12

The OBBB is also cutting assistance to purchase health insurance on the ACA exchanges by $30 billion per year. That’s just about 2 parades every single day for the next decade. 7

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Josh Bivens @joshbivens-econ.bsky.social · Jun 12

SPLC noted that the parade cost could provide nutritional assistance to 14 million students. That would be a better use for that money! But the OBBB is cutting food stamps by more than $20 billion per year. That’s a parade every single day for the next decade. 6

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Josh Bivens @joshbivens-econ.bsky.social · Jun 12

The SPLC noted that $45 million could cover 6,000 people with Medicaid for a year. It would be a better use for that money! But the OBBB is cutting Medicaid by $70 billion + per year every year. That’s more than 4 parades every single day for the next decade. 5 www.splcenter.org/resources/ho...

5 things $45 million could pay for instead of military parade

The expected price of the June 14, 2025, Army display through Washington, D.C., could instead provide for critical services and programs.

www.splcenter.org

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Josh Bivens @joshbivens-econ.bsky.social · Jun 12

But since people have gotten intrigued by the waste of money in the parade, here’s a comparison between that cost and what it means for other social priorities, and what the OBBB does for those. Sorry if folks have done this already and I missed it. 4

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Josh Bivens @joshbivens-econ.bsky.social · Jun 12

I get that we’re all overwhelmed with how much bad and stupid stuff is happening. But the scale of bad and stupid of the OBBB is, I’m afraid, being neglected. It is a catastrophic bill for tens of millions of people and makes us a much worse country. 3 www.epi.org/blog/house-b...

House budget bill would kick 15 million people off health insurance and damage local economies

Update: On June 4, 2025, the Congressional Budget Office released a new estimate that as many as 16 million people would lose their health insurance under the House's budget bill. House Republicans wa...

www.epi.org

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Josh Bivens @joshbivens-econ.bsky.social · Jun 12

$45 million for something stupid is obviously too much. But, again, I’m surprised at how much angst there is about this price tag and what it means for other should-be priorities of the US as compared to discussions about the OBBB winding its way through Congress. 2 www.nytimes.com/2025/06/09/o...

Opinion | Seven Hidden Ways Trump’s Megabill Would Remake America

www.nytimes.com

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Josh Bivens @joshbivens-econ.bsky.social · Jun 12

Like many, I’m not looking forward to the Trump parade this Saturday. It is dumb on so many levels. I’ve been a bit surprised, though, at how many people seem very upset about its cost – which estimates seem to put as high as $45 million. 1 www.npr.org/2025/06/12/g...

By the numbers: A look at the Army's 250th anniversary parade on Trump's birthday

In a few days, the nation's capital will host its largest military parade in more than three decades. We look at some numbers behind the celebration and the key historical moments leading up to it.

www.npr.org

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Josh Bivens @joshbivens-econ.bsky.social · Apr 9

Stock prices can be a noisy signal - some declines aren't bad and some increases reflect policy choices that hurt normal people. But past few weeks' declines are unambiguously bad - they are correct predictions that the US economy will be poorer because of Trump policies. www.epi.org/blog/the-sto...

The stock market is not the economy, but this time they really are sinking together

Many of Donald Trump’s economic plans put forward during the presidential campaign seemed extremely unwise even to the corporate leaders who supported him and care about profits over everything else. ...

www.epi.org

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Josh Bivens @joshbivens-econ.bsky.social · Apr 7

Just noting that Congress can stop the market carnage anytime they want to by rolling back these tariffs. 100% in their power. They're watching a house ablaze with a firehose sitting at their feet and just refusing to use it. GOP leadership, not the Fed, should be having emergency meetings today.

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Josh Bivens @joshbivens-econ.bsky.social · Apr 7

And what the GOP budget ideas mean for all of these flows will inevitably cause pain. There's no legislative dishonesty that can avoid this. 3 www.epi.org/publication/...

There will be pain: Continuing low tax rates for the rich and corporations will hurt working families

Extending Trump’s Tax Cuts and Jobs Act will have painful trade-offs for the U.S. economy and most Americans.

www.epi.org

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Josh Bivens @joshbivens-econ.bsky.social · Apr 7

It calls for huge tax cuts, mostly for the richest households, but pretends these can be hidden with budget gimmicks. But markets don't care about whether or not something is called "current policy" or "current law", they care about taxes, spending, deficits, and debt. 2 www.cbpp.org/press/statem...

New Budget Resolution Is Upside Down, Hurting Families the President Pledged to Serve to Shower Tax Cuts on the Wealthy and Powerful | Center on Budget and Policy Priorities

Congress is speeding down a path to a deeply harmful budget and tax “reconciliation” bill that showers tax cuts on millionaires, billionaires, and corporations — and pays for it in part by raising hea...

www.cbpp.org

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Josh Bivens @joshbivens-econ.bsky.social · Apr 7

The recent market implosion is mostly about the crazy approach to tariffs the admin is taking, but this crazy approach also likely opened eyes to just how much pain is implied in all sorts of other Trump/GOP policies. For example, the Senate budget resolution is incredibly irresponsible. 1

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Josh Bivens @joshbivens-econ.bsky.social · Apr 7

Liz Truss is very excited to hand off the "Dumbest Macro Policymaker in the World" sash to Donald Trump.

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Josh Bivens @joshbivens-econ.bsky.social · Apr 7

The Trump economic agenda is intense short-run pain to bring us to a long-run equilibrium where we're noticeably poorer than we'd otherwise be. All forms of income - including profits - will grow more slowly going forward and the market's not wrong here. 2

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Josh Bivens @joshbivens-econ.bsky.social · Apr 7

This take is wearing ok. The stock market is a noisy signal and doesn't generally correlate tightly at all with broad-based economic security...but in recent weeks its moves are highly informative. 1 www.epi.org/blog/the-sto...

The stock market is not the economy, but this time they really are sinking together

Many of Donald Trump’s economic plans put forward during the presidential campaign seemed extremely unwise even to the corporate leaders who supported him and care about profits over everything else. ...

www.epi.org

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Reposted by Josh Bivens

Mark Cuban @mcuban.bsky.social · Mar 27

Based on the replies l, it looks like there a lot of fed workers on @bsky.app

I just wanted to say THANK YOU. I can't imagine the shit you are going through right now

Thanks for your service to our country

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Reposted by Josh Bivens

Elise Gould @elisegould.bsky.social · Mar 27

Latest #NumbersDay data out from the Department of Labor (www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf) show those initial federal UI claims from the last few weeks have translated into insured continuing claims, up by nearly 50% from this time last year.
#EconSky

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Josh Bivens @joshbivens-econ.bsky.social · Mar 24

Does "running the govt more like a business" at least mean that the dummies who cost it $500 billion (with a 'b') get fired? www.washingtonpost.com/business/202...

Tax revenue could drop by 10 percent amid turmoil at IRS

Staff cuts and disruptions related to the U.S. DOGE Service have officials bracing for a sharp loss of revenue.

www.washingtonpost.com

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