Market seems to be doing a last cut trade as the Fed is about re-rate UR higher and core PCE lower.

Just incredible numbers in the Chinese trade data for November. Despite tariffs from the US, China's trade surplus is now the size of the economy in Poland, Switzerland or the Netherlands. CNH is too low.

An interesting dynamic in FX is that while the US prices cuts through March of '27, a lot of DMs now have 1y1y rates that trade above their respective policy rates. YTD a lot of the yield convergence between US and RoW has come from above, but it is starting to come from below.

A non-trivial part of these post Trump fiscal announcements around the world is that capital exporters are effectively going to need their money back. Thats meaningful when US NIIP position is 80% of GDP.

Sweet, @jturek18.bsky.social on Odd Lots: open.spotify.com/episode/5miC...

Good time to revisit
@jturek18.bsky.social’s “The Dollar’s Imperial Circle” with USD ripping www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary...