Jim Barrineau
@jwb12.bsky.social
Foundation CIO. Consultant for RIAs. 25 years Wall Street, portfolio manager ($6B AUM at peak) and strategist. Follow our dynamic beta approach here:
www.barrineau.substack.com
Ex-USN, ex-CIA
www.barrineau.substack.com
Ex-USN, ex-CIA
Where does value investing actually work? Internationally. The chart below shows a variety of value approaches versus EFA, the international index ETF--all have soundly beaten the index whether the focus was small caps, cash flow, or dividends. Sharp contrast to tech-centric US!
November 28, 2025 at 2:00 PM
Where does value investing actually work? Internationally. The chart below shows a variety of value approaches versus EFA, the international index ETF--all have soundly beaten the index whether the focus was small caps, cash flow, or dividends. Sharp contrast to tech-centric US!
Dollar is looking toppy here. Likely a good time for more international equity exposure.
November 26, 2025 at 3:45 PM
Dollar is looking toppy here. Likely a good time for more international equity exposure.
Now that the market has seemingly decided we are a lock for a rate cut in December, its interesting that January odds for another rate cut are quite low as shown here, suggesting that a rally based on rate cuts alone probably isn't going to get too extended.
November 25, 2025 at 2:45 PM
Now that the market has seemingly decided we are a lock for a rate cut in December, its interesting that January odds for another rate cut are quite low as shown here, suggesting that a rally based on rate cuts alone probably isn't going to get too extended.
Bond market has responded to recent Fed member comments, and we are at a 2/3 probability of a rate cut, so hard to see how Powell pushes against this pricing. Atlanta Fed GDP Nowcast sees a 4.2% GDP print for Q3, tough to see a dovish message to accompany the actual cut.
November 24, 2025 at 8:45 PM
Bond market has responded to recent Fed member comments, and we are at a 2/3 probability of a rate cut, so hard to see how Powell pushes against this pricing. Atlanta Fed GDP Nowcast sees a 4.2% GDP print for Q3, tough to see a dovish message to accompany the actual cut.
The dollar is at six month highs. In those six months the S&P has out-performed international developed EFA by about 450 basis points.
November 23, 2025 at 6:00 PM
The dollar is at six month highs. In those six months the S&P has out-performed international developed EFA by about 450 basis points.
EM equities faltering this month on a relative basis versus S&P on the back of continued dollar strength. EM had doubled S&P performance over the previous 3 months, but that super hot streak seems over for now.
November 23, 2025 at 4:30 PM
EM equities faltering this month on a relative basis versus S&P on the back of continued dollar strength. EM had doubled S&P performance over the previous 3 months, but that super hot streak seems over for now.
This chart is from a nice Substack by Phil Bak:
We are an economy of financial asset inflation. If you own financial assets, you are golden. If you do not, you are dead in the water. It's not much more complicated than that.
We are an economy of financial asset inflation. If you own financial assets, you are golden. If you do not, you are dead in the water. It's not much more complicated than that.
November 19, 2025 at 1:30 PM
This chart is from a nice Substack by Phil Bak:
We are an economy of financial asset inflation. If you own financial assets, you are golden. If you do not, you are dead in the water. It's not much more complicated than that.
We are an economy of financial asset inflation. If you own financial assets, you are golden. If you do not, you are dead in the water. It's not much more complicated than that.
Rate cut odds for December have essentially been cut in half in the past month. Over that period, the return on the Barclays Bond Aggregate has been negative 0.29%. We'll have to see if the narrative changes with the coming deluge of data.
November 17, 2025 at 1:15 PM
Rate cut odds for December have essentially been cut in half in the past month. Over that period, the return on the Barclays Bond Aggregate has been negative 0.29%. We'll have to see if the narrative changes with the coming deluge of data.
High yield spreads have bottomed and started to rise, representing a tightening of financial conditions that will be a headwind to risk assets.
November 17, 2025 at 1:00 PM
High yield spreads have bottomed and started to rise, representing a tightening of financial conditions that will be a headwind to risk assets.
If tech is set to correct, it is logical that value strategies should do better. Two funds we quite like in this space--VLUE for domestic value and DFIV for international--have started to outperform their broad market peers.
November 10, 2025 at 9:26 PM
If tech is set to correct, it is logical that value strategies should do better. Two funds we quite like in this space--VLUE for domestic value and DFIV for international--have started to outperform their broad market peers.
Consumer sentiment--quite the trend.
November 7, 2025 at 3:11 PM
Consumer sentiment--quite the trend.
The Fed meeting marked the near-term peak for bonds, which have steadily retreated in price as December rate cut hopes faded. Tough to see a catalyst here that would turn this around. Higher yields not going to help equity risk appetite in general.
November 5, 2025 at 9:16 PM
The Fed meeting marked the near-term peak for bonds, which have steadily retreated in price as December rate cut hopes faded. Tough to see a catalyst here that would turn this around. Higher yields not going to help equity risk appetite in general.
It has been a while since we had financial conditions tightening rather than loosening (readings below zero are loosening for the Chicago Fed index). One reading does not make a treng, but a stronger dollar and higher corporate bond spreads are early warning signals. Maybe BTC telling us the same?
November 5, 2025 at 2:15 PM
It has been a while since we had financial conditions tightening rather than loosening (readings below zero are loosening for the Chicago Fed index). One reading does not make a treng, but a stronger dollar and higher corporate bond spreads are early warning signals. Maybe BTC telling us the same?
With bitcoin falling and USD rising, another indicator of risk appetite fading is the sharp decline in small cap stocks.
November 5, 2025 at 12:30 PM
With bitcoin falling and USD rising, another indicator of risk appetite fading is the sharp decline in small cap stocks.
With the Fed no longer a lock to cut rates in December and core inflation at 3% and very unlikely to decline, we find little value in most traditional fixed income. If your best case scenario is price stability, you are still looking at a real return below 2% for wide swath of the universe.
November 3, 2025 at 2:26 PM
With the Fed no longer a lock to cut rates in December and core inflation at 3% and very unlikely to decline, we find little value in most traditional fixed income. If your best case scenario is price stability, you are still looking at a real return below 2% for wide swath of the universe.
One alternative income trade we like very much is writing covered calls on oil. OPEC is largely out of the way after pumping lots more barrels into the market. We could bounce along a rough bottom for quite some time, with drastic downside limited while you accrue income.
November 3, 2025 at 1:26 PM
One alternative income trade we like very much is writing covered calls on oil. OPEC is largely out of the way after pumping lots more barrels into the market. We could bounce along a rough bottom for quite some time, with drastic downside limited while you accrue income.
Japan has well out-performed the US over the past three months, and seems like a nice diversifier away from AI-bubble worries.
November 3, 2025 at 12:26 PM
Japan has well out-performed the US over the past three months, and seems like a nice diversifier away from AI-bubble worries.
Feeling this morning a little bit like BTC's 12% fall from its high two weeks ago might be a "canary in the coalmine" for risk assets in general...
October 18, 2025 at 11:29 AM
Feeling this morning a little bit like BTC's 12% fall from its high two weeks ago might be a "canary in the coalmine" for risk assets in general...
Bitcoin has been acting as neither a proxy for abundant financial liquidity, nor a store of value (see GLD), nor as a safe haven.
October 15, 2025 at 1:29 AM
Bitcoin has been acting as neither a proxy for abundant financial liquidity, nor a store of value (see GLD), nor as a safe haven.
After Powell speech:
I don't think the markets have EVER priced in two consecutive rate cuts with near 100% conviction with core inflation at 3% and growth above 3.5%. It's objectively crazy.
I guess if we never get economic data again we can officially forget inflation numbers actually exist....
I don't think the markets have EVER priced in two consecutive rate cuts with near 100% conviction with core inflation at 3% and growth above 3.5%. It's objectively crazy.
I guess if we never get economic data again we can officially forget inflation numbers actually exist....
October 14, 2025 at 5:40 PM
After Powell speech:
I don't think the markets have EVER priced in two consecutive rate cuts with near 100% conviction with core inflation at 3% and growth above 3.5%. It's objectively crazy.
I guess if we never get economic data again we can officially forget inflation numbers actually exist....
I don't think the markets have EVER priced in two consecutive rate cuts with near 100% conviction with core inflation at 3% and growth above 3.5%. It's objectively crazy.
I guess if we never get economic data again we can officially forget inflation numbers actually exist....
Absolute classic FT headline....the dumb money that is up about 50% in two and a half years is the problem here!!
October 14, 2025 at 11:22 AM
Absolute classic FT headline....the dumb money that is up about 50% in two and a half years is the problem here!!
I keep seeing articles about investors shifting money to international assets, it's a long-term trend etc etc. But since the third week in April the S&P has steadily out-performed international developed stocks.
October 11, 2025 at 2:29 PM
I keep seeing articles about investors shifting money to international assets, it's a long-term trend etc etc. But since the third week in April the S&P has steadily out-performed international developed stocks.
Junk bond rally stalls. With about an 80% chance for two rate cuts in the next two meetings priced, there is not a lot of room for bonds to rally from here. Tight credit spreads are another reason that high yield debt seems particularly unattractive now.
October 10, 2025 at 11:59 AM
Junk bond rally stalls. With about an 80% chance for two rate cuts in the next two meetings priced, there is not a lot of room for bonds to rally from here. Tight credit spreads are another reason that high yield debt seems particularly unattractive now.
Steep dollar fall seems to be over for now, creating a headwind for international assets versus USD heading into year-end.
October 10, 2025 at 11:45 AM
Steep dollar fall seems to be over for now, creating a headwind for international assets versus USD heading into year-end.
From Torsten Slok at Apollo. Could not agree more. Focus on real return--that skimpy number is likely contributing to gold's supercharged rally.
October 10, 2025 at 11:21 AM
From Torsten Slok at Apollo. Could not agree more. Focus on real return--that skimpy number is likely contributing to gold's supercharged rally.