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Combined, these two vote swings eliminate Biden’s 2020 margin of victory and set up Harris’ loss. 13/13

Libertarian voters tend to lean conservative and Greens liberal. If we assume those voters were at least open to supporting a major party candidate, 195,000 Libertarian votes went Trump’s way in 2024, and 112,000 Green votes came out of Harris’ 2024 results... 12/

The Greens took more than 112,000 swing state presidential votes in 2024 than they did in 2020.

The bottom line: 11/

While Trump figured out how to peel Libertarian support away from their presidential candidate, the Democrats tried to assassinate the Greens. It is easy to see how this strategy would fail to draw Green supporters to Harris in 2024. 10/

The Greens were on just one swing state ballot in 2020 but made the ballot in five swing states in 2024. The Democrats tried hard to keep the Greens off the ballot in 2024 but lost several lawsuits. 9/

The difference between the Senate and presidential vote counts is very likely explained by Libertarians voting for Trump as President while casting a vote for the Libertarian Senate candidate. 8/

In MI, NV, PA, and WI, the 2024 ballot had Chase Oliver as the Libertarian presidential candidate and another Libertarian running for a US Senate seat. In each state, the Libertarian Senate candidate received many times the vote total of the Libertarian presidential candidate. 7/

That promise (plus getting RFK’s support) led to an astonishing result. 2024 Libertarian Presidential candidate Chase Oliver received more than 195,000 FEWER swing state votes than Jo Jorgensen did in 2020. Those votes very likely went to Trump. 6/

I saw a Libertarian presidential candidate as an issue that would likely doom Trump’s 2024 campaign. He wrangled an invitation to the Libertarians’ 2024 convention and got roundly booed. However, he promised the Libertarians that he would eliminate the Department of Education if elected. 5/

In 2020, Libertarian presidential candidate Jo Jorgensen took more votes than Trump lost to Biden in Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin. In GA and AZ, Jorgensen took nearly 5 times as many votes as Trump’s margin of loss. She took as many votes as Trump lost to Biden in Pennsylvania. 4/

The data in this analysis came from each swing state’s official election results website, except for 2024 Wisconsin data. All 2024 data in this analysis was pre-election certification, meaning the numbers can differ slightly from the certified results. 3/