Kyle Jennison
@kylecjennison.bsky.social
Dad of 3 in Pittsburgh, PA —
baseball, analytics, Dem politics and policy | lifetime @CleGuardians fan
baseball, analytics, Dem politics and policy | lifetime @CleGuardians fan
Dillon Gabriel's early returns are pretty uninspiring, even compared to past Browns QBs in their post-1999 era.
8.5 yards per completion, 4.19 adjusted net yards per attempt. 🥶 Checkdown city.
8.5 yards per completion, 4.19 adjusted net yards per attempt. 🥶 Checkdown city.
November 10, 2025 at 6:42 PM
Dillon Gabriel's early returns are pretty uninspiring, even compared to past Browns QBs in their post-1999 era.
8.5 yards per completion, 4.19 adjusted net yards per attempt. 🥶 Checkdown city.
8.5 yards per completion, 4.19 adjusted net yards per attempt. 🥶 Checkdown city.
Dillon Gabriel's checkdown-heavy mediocrity so far is about middle of the pack among Browns QBs in the Stefanski era - and about on par with the productivity of the injured albatross the Browns are paying $46M this year.
October 22, 2025 at 4:59 PM
Dillon Gabriel's checkdown-heavy mediocrity so far is about middle of the pack among Browns QBs in the Stefanski era - and about on par with the productivity of the injured albatross the Browns are paying $46M this year.
Cleveland has been among the winningest organizations in baseball since the beginning of the Francona and Vogt eras (2013-present). Only LAD and NYY have more total regular season wins in that span.
October 6, 2025 at 7:12 PM
Cleveland has been among the winningest organizations in baseball since the beginning of the Francona and Vogt eras (2013-present). Only LAD and NYY have more total regular season wins in that span.
This popup ad on the MLB app today sure makes an interesting player choice for Cleveland.
October 1, 2025 at 3:21 PM
This popup ad on the MLB app today sure makes an interesting player choice for Cleveland.
Noel just can’t possibly be on the team again next year.
September 28, 2025 at 1:27 AM
Noel just can’t possibly be on the team again next year.
Spencer Strider's xwOBA allowed on his last 50 plate appearances faced is .497 😶
August 22, 2025 at 1:47 PM
Spencer Strider's xwOBA allowed on his last 50 plate appearances faced is .497 😶
It looks like Andres Munoz has lost 2-3 ticks on the fastball avg. velo since ~June. I doubt it's cause for alarm at this point (the stuff and the outcomes are still outstanding) - but I do wonder about fatigue down the stretch and into October.
August 19, 2025 at 3:00 PM
It looks like Andres Munoz has lost 2-3 ticks on the fastball avg. velo since ~June. I doubt it's cause for alarm at this point (the stuff and the outcomes are still outstanding) - but I do wonder about fatigue down the stretch and into October.
Jose Ramirez continues to climb the Cleveland franchise's career leaderboards - now top 5 in most major categories.
July 21, 2025 at 7:22 PM
Jose Ramirez continues to climb the Cleveland franchise's career leaderboards - now top 5 in most major categories.
The AL Central briefly holding four playoff spots in mid-May did... not age well. 😂😭
Since May 15th:
Detroit 29-19 (.604)
Minnesota 19-27 (.413)
Kansas City 19-28 (.404)
Cleveland 16-30 (.348)
Since May 15th:
Detroit 29-19 (.604)
Minnesota 19-27 (.413)
Kansas City 19-28 (.404)
Cleveland 16-30 (.348)
July 8, 2025 at 7:21 PM
The AL Central briefly holding four playoff spots in mid-May did... not age well. 😂😭
Since May 15th:
Detroit 29-19 (.604)
Minnesota 19-27 (.413)
Kansas City 19-28 (.404)
Cleveland 16-30 (.348)
Since May 15th:
Detroit 29-19 (.604)
Minnesota 19-27 (.413)
Kansas City 19-28 (.404)
Cleveland 16-30 (.348)
Not nearly as important as the concrete real-world cruelties this administration renders daily - but amateurish correspondence like this (random capitalization, exclamation marks, childlike writing) reminds us how cartoonishly stupid and incapable these people are.
July 7, 2025 at 6:47 PM
Not nearly as important as the concrete real-world cruelties this administration renders daily - but amateurish correspondence like this (random capitalization, exclamation marks, childlike writing) reminds us how cartoonishly stupid and incapable these people are.
Over the last 30 days, the Cleveland Guardians are the worst offense in MLB by a considerable margin.
.198/.269/.321, 66 wRC+, -0.6 fWAR, 69 runs scored in 26 games (2.7 per game)
.198/.269/.321, 66 wRC+, -0.6 fWAR, 69 runs scored in 26 games (2.7 per game)
July 7, 2025 at 2:51 PM
Over the last 30 days, the Cleveland Guardians are the worst offense in MLB by a considerable margin.
.198/.269/.321, 66 wRC+, -0.6 fWAR, 69 runs scored in 26 games (2.7 per game)
.198/.269/.321, 66 wRC+, -0.6 fWAR, 69 runs scored in 26 games (2.7 per game)
Yeah - still getting plenty of hard contact and barrels. Nothing amiss in his swing decisions either.
Running a hard-luck BABIP of .200 in the last ~2 weeks (vs. his career BABIP of .317) that won't last. And rate of seeing first-pitch strikes way up, which I think relates to his BB% being down.
Running a hard-luck BABIP of .200 in the last ~2 weeks (vs. his career BABIP of .317) that won't last. And rate of seeing first-pitch strikes way up, which I think relates to his BB% being down.
June 2, 2025 at 5:46 PM
Yeah - still getting plenty of hard contact and barrels. Nothing amiss in his swing decisions either.
Running a hard-luck BABIP of .200 in the last ~2 weeks (vs. his career BABIP of .317) that won't last. And rate of seeing first-pitch strikes way up, which I think relates to his BB% being down.
Running a hard-luck BABIP of .200 in the last ~2 weeks (vs. his career BABIP of .317) that won't last. And rate of seeing first-pitch strikes way up, which I think relates to his BB% being down.
Love the idea. Great picks across the board.
I’d be considering these two on the baseball side:
I’d be considering these two on the baseball side:
May 30, 2025 at 9:15 PM
Love the idea. Great picks across the board.
I’d be considering these two on the baseball side:
I’d be considering these two on the baseball side:
Manzardo and Santana have also filled in at 1B pretty admirably for Naylor - although this move has been more of a wash. Naylor is producing well for AZ.
If Cecconi continues to impress it will move the needle, though.
If Cecconi continues to impress it will move the needle, though.
May 30, 2025 at 6:20 PM
Manzardo and Santana have also filled in at 1B pretty admirably for Naylor - although this move has been more of a wash. Naylor is producing well for AZ.
If Cecconi continues to impress it will move the needle, though.
If Cecconi continues to impress it will move the needle, though.
I can't imagine the Guardians FO has any qualms with the Gimenez/Sandlin trade so far.
Guards getting 2.2 fWAR from the 2B position, and some quality innings from Ortiz - while Gimenez has struggled and both Gimenez/Sandlin have been hurt.
And that's without mentioning the payroll trajectories.
Guards getting 2.2 fWAR from the 2B position, and some quality innings from Ortiz - while Gimenez has struggled and both Gimenez/Sandlin have been hurt.
And that's without mentioning the payroll trajectories.
May 30, 2025 at 6:15 PM
I can't imagine the Guardians FO has any qualms with the Gimenez/Sandlin trade so far.
Guards getting 2.2 fWAR from the 2B position, and some quality innings from Ortiz - while Gimenez has struggled and both Gimenez/Sandlin have been hurt.
And that's without mentioning the payroll trajectories.
Guards getting 2.2 fWAR from the 2B position, and some quality innings from Ortiz - while Gimenez has struggled and both Gimenez/Sandlin have been hurt.
And that's without mentioning the payroll trajectories.
I badly want to know more about how “Everybody’s Live with John Mulaney” decided to abruptly change their theme song to a 2014 track by an artist with 35 monthly listeners on Spotify.
May 29, 2025 at 3:20 AM
I badly want to know more about how “Everybody’s Live with John Mulaney” decided to abruptly change their theme song to a 2014 track by an artist with 35 monthly listeners on Spotify.
Yeah, that def. makes sense. Although, even today, Judge is less than 2 wins (by fWAR) away from Ichiro's career total.
And comparing Judge's career (1,042 games) to the equivalent period of Ichiro's career, there's a 19-WAR gap. Judge is far more productive even with defense and speed included.
And comparing Judge's career (1,042 games) to the equivalent period of Ichiro's career, there's a 19-WAR gap. Judge is far more productive even with defense and speed included.
May 23, 2025 at 4:32 PM
Yeah, that def. makes sense. Although, even today, Judge is less than 2 wins (by fWAR) away from Ichiro's career total.
And comparing Judge's career (1,042 games) to the equivalent period of Ichiro's career, there's a 19-WAR gap. Judge is far more productive even with defense and speed included.
And comparing Judge's career (1,042 games) to the equivalent period of Ichiro's career, there's a 19-WAR gap. Judge is far more productive even with defense and speed included.
But when he does hit the ball, he isn't pulling it (down from 41.7% to 29.4%).
And bat speed: his average bat speed is down 4 MPH in the last two years, and his rate of "fast swings" (75+ mph) has plummeted from 40% to about 7%.
And bat speed: his average bat speed is down 4 MPH in the last two years, and his rate of "fast swings" (75+ mph) has plummeted from 40% to about 7%.
May 13, 2025 at 7:02 PM
But when he does hit the ball, he isn't pulling it (down from 41.7% to 29.4%).
And bat speed: his average bat speed is down 4 MPH in the last two years, and his rate of "fast swings" (75+ mph) has plummeted from 40% to about 7%.
And bat speed: his average bat speed is down 4 MPH in the last two years, and his rate of "fast swings" (75+ mph) has plummeted from 40% to about 7%.
And not just average swing speed, but the overall distribution. In 2023, 6.6% of his swings were >= 75 MPH; in 2025, 19.8% are.
May 2, 2025 at 5:00 PM
And not just average swing speed, but the overall distribution. In 2023, 6.6% of his swings were >= 75 MPH; in 2025, 19.8% are.
Only 48 PAs so far, but Zach Neto couldn't be hitting the ball much better. 55.9% LA Sweet-Spot % would be best in MLB if he were qualified.
One factor: Avg. Swing speed is up +1.3 MPH over 2034 and up +3 MPH since 2023.
One factor: Avg. Swing speed is up +1.3 MPH over 2034 and up +3 MPH since 2023.
May 2, 2025 at 5:00 PM
Only 48 PAs so far, but Zach Neto couldn't be hitting the ball much better. 55.9% LA Sweet-Spot % would be best in MLB if he were qualified.
One factor: Avg. Swing speed is up +1.3 MPH over 2034 and up +3 MPH since 2023.
One factor: Avg. Swing speed is up +1.3 MPH over 2034 and up +3 MPH since 2023.
I knew Ben Rice had been hot but YOWZA
April 25, 2025 at 2:47 PM
I knew Ben Rice had been hot but YOWZA
post your comfort album
April 25, 2025 at 1:55 PM
post your comfort album
Still very young and with only 278 MLB plate appearances, but I like what we're seeing directionally from Jackson Holliday so far.
Gradual declines in his chase rate and swing-and-miss rate, and improvement in his zone contact rate and wOBA.
Gradual declines in his chase rate and swing-and-miss rate, and improvement in his zone contact rate and wOBA.
April 24, 2025 at 4:17 PM
Still very young and with only 278 MLB plate appearances, but I like what we're seeing directionally from Jackson Holliday so far.
Gradual declines in his chase rate and swing-and-miss rate, and improvement in his zone contact rate and wOBA.
Gradual declines in his chase rate and swing-and-miss rate, and improvement in his zone contact rate and wOBA.
Last summer I was criticizing Gabriel Arias' plate approach: compared to his first 228 MLB PAs, his walk rate had plummeted, and his K%, SwStr%, and swing rates had spiked (especially *outside* of the zone).
He was getting more barrels, hard-hit balls, and higher SLG -but overall worse production.
He was getting more barrels, hard-hit balls, and higher SLG -but overall worse production.
April 23, 2025 at 4:39 PM
Last summer I was criticizing Gabriel Arias' plate approach: compared to his first 228 MLB PAs, his walk rate had plummeted, and his K%, SwStr%, and swing rates had spiked (especially *outside* of the zone).
He was getting more barrels, hard-hit balls, and higher SLG -but overall worse production.
He was getting more barrels, hard-hit balls, and higher SLG -but overall worse production.
NL picks quite a bit less varied, with 3 unanimous playoff team picks (LAD, ATL, PHI) and only one division (NL Central) with four or more teams getting division-winner votes.
March 27, 2025 at 3:16 PM
NL picks quite a bit less varied, with 3 unanimous playoff team picks (LAD, ATL, PHI) and only one division (NL Central) with four or more teams getting division-winner votes.