Prof. Liz Stephens
@lizstephens.bsky.social
210 followers 93 following 7 posts
Professor in Climate Risks & Resilience, University of Reading; Science Lead, Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre (opinions my own)
Posts Media Videos Starter Packs
lizstephens.bsky.social
An interesting / worrying forecast for the South West Indian Ocean, with another tropical cyclone on the way.

@ecmwf.bsky.social IFS: growing likelihood of the cyclone making 2nd landfall in MDG.
AI models: storm staying out in Moz channel, or even landfall in MOZ

charts.ecmwf.int/products/cyc...
Forecasts of tropical cyclone 05S made by different AI models, as displayed on the ECMWF website.
lizstephens.bsky.social
Small islands must be supported to build resilience to tropical cyclones. It is not enough to just improve early warning systems. We must strengthen homes and critical infrastructure to ensure that people have somewhere safe to shelter &essential services like power &water supply remain operational.
lizstephens.bsky.social
The intensity of tropical cyclones in the South West Indian Ocean is increasing, in line with what is expected due to climate change.

Small islands are particularly vulnerable, because a single storm can devastate an entire island.
lizstephens.bsky.social
The path of #CycloneChido was well forecasted several days ahead, but communities on small islands like Mayotte can't move out of the path of the storm - there's nowhere to go.
lizstephens.bsky.social
Super Typhoon Man-yi (Pepito) was the first time we triggered the Philippines Red Cross Early Action Protocol. Previously we've had issues due to poor intensity forecasts 72 hours ahead of landfall, related to rapid intensification.

This time the @ecmwf.bsky.social 9km ensemble did well!
ifrc.org
IFRC @ifrc.org · Nov 21
Six tropical typhoons have hit the Philippines in a month in an unprecedented pattern of extreme weather.

The IFRC is appealing for more aid, increasing its initial Emergency Appeal with the aim of enabling the Philippine Red Cross to widen its scope of assistance. bit.ly/4fFExaf
Early warning systems only way to begin tackling unprecedented number of Philippines typhoons | IFRC
Manila/ Kuala Lumpur/ Geneva, 18 November:  Six tropical typhoons have hit the Philippines in a month in an unprecedented pattern of extreme weather, not seen since records in the Pacific basin began ...
bit.ly
Reposted by Prof. Liz Stephens
edhawkins.org
You can now share the Warming Stripes directly to BlueSky, such as these for my town of Reading:

showyourstripes.info/s/europe/uni...

(Find the graphic you want to share, click the blue options button - the one with three horizontal lines - and select the butterfly!)
Show Your Stripes
Visualising how the climate has changed for every country across the globe
showyourstripes.info
lizstephens.bsky.social
Great new paper by Climate Centre colleague and Reading PhD student Dorothy Heinrich (+ Erin Coughlan de Perez:

"More than Magnitude: Towards a multidimensional understanding of unprecedented weather to better support disaster management"

doi.org/10.1016/j.wa...

www.linkedin.com/posts/antici...
Anticipation Hub on LinkedIn: #anticipatoryaction
A new paper by by Dorothy Heinrich, Liz Stephens and Erin Coughlan de Perez explores unprecedented weather events and the humanitarian risks these pose.…
www.linkedin.com