Dr Luke Mansillo
@lukemansillo.com
Political scientist: public opinion, political behaviour, survey research methods, advanced democracy elections, Australian politics and racial politics. Penchant for Bayesian statistics.
https://www.lukemansillo.com
https://www.lukemansillo.com
Reposted by Dr Luke Mansillo
Job Opportunity!
University of Zurich
Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences
Professorship for Africa (open rank)
Focus: Sub-Saharan African societies and their complex relations with Europe and the world, late 19th-early 21st century.
networks.h-net.org/jobs/69543/u...
University of Zurich
Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences
Professorship for Africa (open rank)
Focus: Sub-Saharan African societies and their complex relations with Europe and the world, late 19th-early 21st century.
networks.h-net.org/jobs/69543/u...
University of Zurich - Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences - Professorship for Africa – Europe in the Long 20th Century (open rank) | H-Net
networks.h-net.org
December 2, 2025 at 6:33 AM
Job Opportunity!
University of Zurich
Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences
Professorship for Africa (open rank)
Focus: Sub-Saharan African societies and their complex relations with Europe and the world, late 19th-early 21st century.
networks.h-net.org/jobs/69543/u...
University of Zurich
Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences
Professorship for Africa (open rank)
Focus: Sub-Saharan African societies and their complex relations with Europe and the world, late 19th-early 21st century.
networks.h-net.org/jobs/69543/u...
Reposted by Dr Luke Mansillo
Needed - larger samples, more realism about (the lack of) heterogeneous treatment effects:
-"less than a third of proposed hypotheses were supported... the largest predictor of positive exp. results was sample size"
-"moderation hypotheses were rarely significant"
academic.oup.com/poq/advance-...
-"less than a third of proposed hypotheses were supported... the largest predictor of positive exp. results was sample size"
-"moderation hypotheses were rarely significant"
academic.oup.com/poq/advance-...
An Audit of Social Science Survey Experiments
Abstract. Survey experiments have become a popular methodology for causal inference across the social sciences. We study the efficacy of survey experiment
academic.oup.com
November 30, 2025 at 3:16 PM
Needed - larger samples, more realism about (the lack of) heterogeneous treatment effects:
-"less than a third of proposed hypotheses were supported... the largest predictor of positive exp. results was sample size"
-"moderation hypotheses were rarely significant"
academic.oup.com/poq/advance-...
-"less than a third of proposed hypotheses were supported... the largest predictor of positive exp. results was sample size"
-"moderation hypotheses were rarely significant"
academic.oup.com/poq/advance-...
Reposted by Dr Luke Mansillo
🎉 New publication 🎉 Why do #youngpeople vote for the #AfD? This question has kept our research project busy for quite some time, so I'm beyond excited that our first article - co-authored with @timonscheuer.bsky.social - is now out in #GermanPolitics! 🤩 www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
November 22, 2025 at 9:36 AM
🎉 New publication 🎉 Why do #youngpeople vote for the #AfD? This question has kept our research project busy for quite some time, so I'm beyond excited that our first article - co-authored with @timonscheuer.bsky.social - is now out in #GermanPolitics! 🤩 www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
Reposted by Dr Luke Mansillo
NYT: “Epstein emails a distraction from the Republican shutdown victory”
WSJ: “We estimate the Epstein files to be 67% Trump by weight”
WSJ: “We estimate the Epstein files to be 67% Trump by weight”
November 14, 2025 at 11:08 PM
NYT: “Epstein emails a distraction from the Republican shutdown victory”
WSJ: “We estimate the Epstein files to be 67% Trump by weight”
WSJ: “We estimate the Epstein files to be 67% Trump by weight”
Reposted by Dr Luke Mansillo
"This assault on higher education is best understood as a means of destroying a locus of political opposition."
Over the last 10 months, the federal government has cracked down on political expression with a persistence and viciousness reminiscent of some of the darkest periods of U.S. history. Welcome to the Third Red Scare.
The First Amendment Won’t Go Quietly
Welcome to the third Red Scare.
www.theatlantic.com
November 14, 2025 at 1:41 PM
"This assault on higher education is best understood as a means of destroying a locus of political opposition."
Reposted by Dr Luke Mansillo
⚙️ #ecprjs26 Workshop directors 🎬 @beatrizlbuarque.bsky.social & @scopelliti.bsky.social
💡 Seeks Papers exploring the European far-right politics of truth in digital spaces buff.ly/7Zm46uu
✔️ @ecpr-ead.bsky.social endorsed
⌛ Submit by 10 Dec
#CallforPapers #AI #PoliticalParties #Policymaking
💡 Seeks Papers exploring the European far-right politics of truth in digital spaces buff.ly/7Zm46uu
✔️ @ecpr-ead.bsky.social endorsed
⌛ Submit by 10 Dec
#CallforPapers #AI #PoliticalParties #Policymaking
The European Far-Right Politics of Truth in Digital Spaces
Joint Sessions of Workshops, 7 – 10 April 2026, University of Innsbruck
buff.ly
November 13, 2025 at 3:03 PM
⚙️ #ecprjs26 Workshop directors 🎬 @beatrizlbuarque.bsky.social & @scopelliti.bsky.social
💡 Seeks Papers exploring the European far-right politics of truth in digital spaces buff.ly/7Zm46uu
✔️ @ecpr-ead.bsky.social endorsed
⌛ Submit by 10 Dec
#CallforPapers #AI #PoliticalParties #Policymaking
💡 Seeks Papers exploring the European far-right politics of truth in digital spaces buff.ly/7Zm46uu
✔️ @ecpr-ead.bsky.social endorsed
⌛ Submit by 10 Dec
#CallforPapers #AI #PoliticalParties #Policymaking
Reposted by Dr Luke Mansillo
What is the most profitable industry in the world, this side of the law? Not oil, not IT, not pharma.
It's *scientific publishing*.
We call this the Drain of Scientific Publishing.
Paper: arxiv.org/abs/2511.04820
Background: doi.org/10.1162/qss_...
Thread @markhanson.fediscience.org.ap.brid.gy 👇
It's *scientific publishing*.
We call this the Drain of Scientific Publishing.
Paper: arxiv.org/abs/2511.04820
Background: doi.org/10.1162/qss_...
Thread @markhanson.fediscience.org.ap.brid.gy 👇
November 12, 2025 at 10:31 AM
What is the most profitable industry in the world, this side of the law? Not oil, not IT, not pharma.
It's *scientific publishing*.
We call this the Drain of Scientific Publishing.
Paper: arxiv.org/abs/2511.04820
Background: doi.org/10.1162/qss_...
Thread @markhanson.fediscience.org.ap.brid.gy 👇
It's *scientific publishing*.
We call this the Drain of Scientific Publishing.
Paper: arxiv.org/abs/2511.04820
Background: doi.org/10.1162/qss_...
Thread @markhanson.fediscience.org.ap.brid.gy 👇
Reposted by Dr Luke Mansillo
The race to churn out papers is a systemic problem.
Early career scholars are desperate to get more papers to compete in the academic job market. This can make it hard for faculty mentors hard to reduce their output unless they shrink their lab (which removes opportunities from next generation).
Early career scholars are desperate to get more papers to compete in the academic job market. This can make it hard for faculty mentors hard to reduce their output unless they shrink their lab (which removes opportunities from next generation).
November 11, 2025 at 7:26 PM
The race to churn out papers is a systemic problem.
Early career scholars are desperate to get more papers to compete in the academic job market. This can make it hard for faculty mentors hard to reduce their output unless they shrink their lab (which removes opportunities from next generation).
Early career scholars are desperate to get more papers to compete in the academic job market. This can make it hard for faculty mentors hard to reduce their output unless they shrink their lab (which removes opportunities from next generation).
Reposted by Dr Luke Mansillo
I don’t agree with everything, but this is a very thoughtful and, indeed, thought-provoking post
open.substack.com/pub/laurenzg...
open.substack.com/pub/laurenzg...
Strategies of Non-Populist Parties
Why most of them are wrong and how they can do better
open.substack.com
November 11, 2025 at 5:41 PM
I don’t agree with everything, but this is a very thoughtful and, indeed, thought-provoking post
open.substack.com/pub/laurenzg...
open.substack.com/pub/laurenzg...
Reposted by Dr Luke Mansillo
Anthropologists have discovered a lost tribe that uses the "one, two, many" system of counting.
November 10, 2025 at 4:57 AM
Anthropologists have discovered a lost tribe that uses the "one, two, many" system of counting.
Reposted by Dr Luke Mansillo
A two-headed coin.
Isn’t it the perfect symbol of Trumpian politics?
Heads, I win. Heads, I win. Again.
Yes, the odds are forever stacked against you!
Isn’t it the perfect symbol of Trumpian politics?
Heads, I win. Heads, I win. Again.
Yes, the odds are forever stacked against you!
November 9, 2025 at 4:45 PM
A two-headed coin.
Isn’t it the perfect symbol of Trumpian politics?
Heads, I win. Heads, I win. Again.
Yes, the odds are forever stacked against you!
Isn’t it the perfect symbol of Trumpian politics?
Heads, I win. Heads, I win. Again.
Yes, the odds are forever stacked against you!
Reposted by Dr Luke Mansillo
Here's a law professor lamenting the fads in legal theory popular among law professors that become popular for a decade or two and then fade away— written in 1950. Specifically, it's Roscoe Pound, reflecting on trends since he became a lawyer in 1890.
jle.aals.org/cgi/viewcont...
jle.aals.org/cgi/viewcont...
November 9, 2025 at 5:43 AM
Here's a law professor lamenting the fads in legal theory popular among law professors that become popular for a decade or two and then fade away— written in 1950. Specifically, it's Roscoe Pound, reflecting on trends since he became a lawyer in 1890.
jle.aals.org/cgi/viewcont...
jle.aals.org/cgi/viewcont...
Reposted by Dr Luke Mansillo
free markets, amirite?
every time you think the new WaPo editorial board can't embarrass itself any more, they manage to find a way.
Left: 'Texas gerrymandering is no big deal!', from August.
Right: 'Maryland gerrymandering is an affront to Western civilization!', from today.
Left: 'Texas gerrymandering is no big deal!', from August.
Right: 'Maryland gerrymandering is an affront to Western civilization!', from today.
November 8, 2025 at 5:53 PM
free markets, amirite?
Reposted by Dr Luke Mansillo
Also remarkable: the polarisation of young UK voters. Top two parties supported now Reform and Greens
on.ft.com/4qKurLm Young Britons’ attitudes hardening on crime and welfare
on.ft.com/4qKurLm Young Britons’ attitudes hardening on crime and welfare
November 3, 2025 at 1:24 PM
Also remarkable: the polarisation of young UK voters. Top two parties supported now Reform and Greens
on.ft.com/4qKurLm Young Britons’ attitudes hardening on crime and welfare
on.ft.com/4qKurLm Young Britons’ attitudes hardening on crime and welfare
Reposted by Dr Luke Mansillo
Last Friday, new English Indices of Deprivation were released for the first time since 2019, measuring relative deprivation in 33,755 areas of England across multiple domains. How do these geographic disparities relate to voting patterns in the UK’s last General Election? A short thread 🧵
November 3, 2025 at 8:41 AM
Last Friday, new English Indices of Deprivation were released for the first time since 2019, measuring relative deprivation in 33,755 areas of England across multiple domains. How do these geographic disparities relate to voting patterns in the UK’s last General Election? A short thread 🧵
Reposted by Dr Luke Mansillo
For anyone interested in nationalization, have we got a book for you: global.oup.com/academic/pro...
November 1, 2025 at 1:54 AM
For anyone interested in nationalization, have we got a book for you: global.oup.com/academic/pro...
Reposted by Dr Luke Mansillo
It is finally finished and released! I was proud to be a member of the Task Force on 2024 Pre-Election Polling, and to play just a small role in producing this report.
Here is the report:
aapor.org/wp-content/u...
And here is the Executive Summary: aapor.org/wp-content/u...
Here is the report:
aapor.org/wp-content/u...
And here is the Executive Summary: aapor.org/wp-content/u...
aapor.org
October 29, 2025 at 8:16 PM
It is finally finished and released! I was proud to be a member of the Task Force on 2024 Pre-Election Polling, and to play just a small role in producing this report.
Here is the report:
aapor.org/wp-content/u...
And here is the Executive Summary: aapor.org/wp-content/u...
Here is the report:
aapor.org/wp-content/u...
And here is the Executive Summary: aapor.org/wp-content/u...
Reposted by Dr Luke Mansillo
When assessing the 2025 wins and losses, it’s important to also put them in the context of the 2023 wins and losses. Compared to 2021
D66 +3
PVV +8
GL/PvdA +3
VVD -11
CDA +4
D66 +3
PVV +8
GL/PvdA +3
VVD -11
CDA +4
October 29, 2025 at 11:28 PM
When assessing the 2025 wins and losses, it’s important to also put them in the context of the 2023 wins and losses. Compared to 2021
D66 +3
PVV +8
GL/PvdA +3
VVD -11
CDA +4
D66 +3
PVV +8
GL/PvdA +3
VVD -11
CDA +4
Reposted by Dr Luke Mansillo
Dutch parliament reads like the results of a blood test
Netherlands, 9:30 PM Ipsos-I&O exit poll:
Seat projection national parliament
D66-RE: 27 (+18)
PVV-PfE: 25 (-12)
VVD-RE: 23 (-1)
GL/PvdA-G/EFA|S&D: 20 (-5)
CDA-EPP: 19 (+14)
JA21~ECR: 9 (+8)
FvD-ESN: 6 (+3)
BBB-EPP: 4 (-3)
...
+/- vs. Last election result
➤ europeelects.eu/netherlands
Seat projection national parliament
D66-RE: 27 (+18)
PVV-PfE: 25 (-12)
VVD-RE: 23 (-1)
GL/PvdA-G/EFA|S&D: 20 (-5)
CDA-EPP: 19 (+14)
JA21~ECR: 9 (+8)
FvD-ESN: 6 (+3)
BBB-EPP: 4 (-3)
...
+/- vs. Last election result
➤ europeelects.eu/netherlands
October 29, 2025 at 11:21 PM
Dutch parliament reads like the results of a blood test
Reposted by Dr Luke Mansillo
The ACTU’s Liam O’Brien talking about the rort that is the PRRT #RevenueSummit
October 28, 2025 at 11:47 PM
The ACTU’s Liam O’Brien talking about the rort that is the PRRT #RevenueSummit
Reposted by Dr Luke Mansillo
Discounted but not ‘affordable’: NSW policy to build cheaper rental apartments a boon for developers
Discounted but not ‘affordable’: NSW policy to build cheaper rental apartments a boon for developers
Developers flock to build ‘affordable’ housing – but are poised to reap benefits while tenants could pay 50% of post-tax income in rent
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A small block of units on Clovelly Road built in 2021 was granted extra floor space so the developer could add five affordable units, taking the total development to 13. The units, three minutes’ walk from the beach, with parking and a bus stop outside, are in a highly desirable spot.
But “affordable” they are not. Continue reading...
www.theguardian.com
October 28, 2025 at 11:48 PM
Discounted but not ‘affordable’: NSW policy to build cheaper rental apartments a boon for developers
Reposted by Dr Luke Mansillo
Post-liberalism has distinctive British and US sources but increasingly the US elements are driving changes in British politics - see my new book Against Post Liberalism to find out why and to see why that might be a problem… @lsegovernment.bsky.social @politybooks.bsky.social #Postliberalism
October 26, 2025 at 7:47 AM
Post-liberalism has distinctive British and US sources but increasingly the US elements are driving changes in British politics - see my new book Against Post Liberalism to find out why and to see why that might be a problem… @lsegovernment.bsky.social @politybooks.bsky.social #Postliberalism
Reposted by Dr Luke Mansillo
The most Republican guy is the guy who owns the used car dealership, a tanning salon, and a boat in a place that has been economically decimated by deindustrialization
See, for instance:
See, for instance:
October 24, 2025 at 2:17 PM
The most Republican guy is the guy who owns the used car dealership, a tanning salon, and a boat in a place that has been economically decimated by deindustrialization
See, for instance:
See, for instance:
Reposted by Dr Luke Mansillo
Sounds eerily like what happened in Scotland and helped lead to the SNP sweeping the board in Westminster seats - amazing that Labour didn't learn that hard lesson! (Source: www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-...)
October 24, 2025 at 10:01 AM
Sounds eerily like what happened in Scotland and helped lead to the SNP sweeping the board in Westminster seats - amazing that Labour didn't learn that hard lesson! (Source: www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-...)