Michael Weissman
Michael Weissman
@mbweissman.bsky.social
November 2, 2025 at 6:42 PM
What I actually wrote:
May 22, 2025 at 8:29 PM
Yes, Kopp is a right-wing nut but she also did a good job obtaining documents that are easy enough to read.
May 22, 2025 at 3:21 AM
May 21, 2025 at 2:09 AM
I think this looks an awful lot like what Bruttel had said he thought had been done. Until this came out the RE pattern didn't seem to justify a noticeable Bayes factor, but it raised P(pattern|LL).
May 20, 2025 at 8:54 PM
May 20, 2025 at 3:48 PM
May 20, 2025 at 3:47 PM
??
May 18, 2025 at 8:53 PM
From the full blog
May 5, 2025 at 2:47 PM
Here's what I wrote. I'm heading out to garden now.
May 4, 2025 at 8:19 PM
Now you got me intrigued. Is this business about this?
May 4, 2025 at 2:41 PM
Since that arXiv paper is hard to read, this could help. michaelweissman.substack.com/p/explanatio...
April 24, 2025 at 4:02 PM
April 16, 2025 at 1:09 AM
Someone has replied (before blocking) that it couldn't have been an error in Bayes logic because the paper didn't even use that. This paper:
April 3, 2025 at 12:50 PM
The next one should. P2022 had an egregious error in basic Bayesian logic. arxiv.org/html/2502.20...
tl;dr version
April 1, 2025 at 6:19 PM
Unfortunately there is a meaning to the claim:
March 28, 2025 at 1:32 PM
That answered (2), this answers (1). Guess you haven't got too far into it.
February 2, 2025 at 2:33 AM
February 2, 2025 at 2:28 AM
Except I wasn't being cute. I was being boring and conventional. I asked an editor at Annals of Applied Stats if they'd be interested in a shorter version but he said that the methods were too standard.
I did have one cute idea tho, literally in the middle of the night.
doi.org/10.1093/jrss...
January 27, 2025 at 1:37 AM
January 26, 2025 at 3:02 PM
maybe more readable
January 26, 2025 at 3:02 PM
January 26, 2025 at 2:43 PM
If you want to see the exchange, sorry for the crude screen shots.
January 26, 2025 at 2:43 PM
Re the map featured in your pinned skeet:
doi.org/10.1093/jrss...

non-paywalled arxiv.org/abs/2401.08680
November 27, 2024 at 2:12 PM