This translates to ~ 40% wind and solar generation share by 2030 and 50% by 2035. Non-fossil generation reaching 50% by 2030 and 70-80% by 2035. In total, we found wind+solar capacity should be 3000-3800 GW. Hence, China's wind+solar NDC is upper range of what is needed for broader climate effort.

Earlier this year, together with researchers from Tsinghua University, we examined how wind and solar targets must evolve to align with climate scenarios. Under these scenarios, China’s power sector emissions would need to fall from roughly 5,000 MtCO₂ today to between 3,300–3,800 MtCO₂ by 2035.

4️⃣ Second, introducing explicit wind and solar generation share targets—eg achieving ~ 40% by 2030 and reaching 50% by 2035—would provide clear guidance to maintain momentum toward 2060 carbon neutrality.

1️⃣ Consistent with a 2ºC scenario, China will need to significantly scale its wind and solar installations. We project requirements of 2,350–2,780 GW by 2030 and increasing to 2,910–3,800 GW by 2035.

5️⃣ Robust planning matters. Locationally dependent resources (RE and storage deployments) are sensitive to policy uncertainty. States with clearer clean-energy targets have nearly double the renewable build-out compared to states with uncertain policies. While firm resources are more robust.

4️⃣ Transmission vs storage? It's complicated. Coordination leads to bigger transmission networks: lines expand by up to 149% under optimal coordination. But reaching net zero requires more storage than transmission relative to current state policy.

2️⃣ Fully coordinated power markets save about $3.25B/year compared to current fragmented market structures. But even incremental coordination (like expanding real-time markets) offers substantial cost reductions. Moving from an EIM to RTO (and more) generates greater savings.

Indonesia’s new president has committed to phase out coal and all fossil power in 15 years. If this is where you’re starting from, with less than 1 GW of wind and solar on the grid—that is the definition of ambitious.

From my political economy of energy policy course (based on the 2019 report). No one has guessed correctly before the reveal.