Read the Carbon Brief post on our article: www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-w...

The paper is open access: www.cell.com/cell-reports...

Co-authors: @zhenhuazhang.bsky.social, Ziheng Zhu, Xi Lu, and Da Zhang (Tsinghua)

To translate these large capacity numbers to generation and fossil displacement, need more efforts on integration- interconnection, transmission bottlenecks, efficient dispatch & markets, esp cross-provincial. Without these, even more capacity will be needed for ~ 50% wind+solar share by 2035.

While emissions caps central to global climate governance, complementary policies in China's context help mobilize resources and guide state-owned enterprises and local gov planning & investment. Given evolving renewable energy supports in Document 136, this is essential to keep clean energy pace.

This translates to ~ 40% wind and solar generation share by 2030 and 50% by 2035. Non-fossil generation reaching 50% by 2030 and 70-80% by 2035. In total, we found wind+solar capacity should be 3000-3800 GW. Hence, China's wind+solar NDC is upper range of what is needed for broader climate effort.

Earlier this year, together with researchers from Tsinghua University, we examined how wind and solar targets must evolve to align with climate scenarios. Under these scenarios, China’s power sector emissions would need to fall from roughly 5,000 MtCO₂ today to between 3,300–3,800 MtCO₂ by 2035.

On the power sector, China has opted for a total wind and solar capacity target, striving to reach 3600 GW. This represents an acceleration over the previous 1200 GW by 2030 target, and is more in line with deployment trends over the last 5 years.

Many observers will note the underwhelming emissions target. There will be more analyses on how far from a 2C scenario--some have noted 30%. For non fossil fuel share reaching 30%, assuming this is primary energy, with higher rates of electrification plus clean energy, it is possible to exceed this.

I’m deeply grateful to everyone in my lab (past and present) who have supported me and each other on this journey. And thankful to my mentors, collaborators and colleagues--I look forward to continuing to build solutions for a more sustainable energy future.

Connect with us! pwrlab.org

Together, we’re advancing research in the U.S., China, Southeast Asia, and India on:
⚡ Tackling power sector greening
⚡ Modeling political economy challenges of energy transitions
⚡ Finding solutions to clean tech trade and supply chains issues

where we study the engineering implications, institutional conflicts, and global value chains inherent in deploying low-carbon energy at scale. I’m fortunate to work with amazing students, and colleagues and partners across academia, government, industry, and civil society.

This study was led by UCSD MAE PhD student @zhenhuazhang.bsky.social and collaborators at Tsinghua University, Ziheng Zhu, Xi Lu, Da Zhang. #CleanEnergy #EnergyPolicy #energysky #ClimateAction #RenewableEnergy #China

As countries release their new NDCs this year, China's decisions could shape the pace and ambition of global efforts. Explore all the details, along with access to our data and modeling code: github.com/Power-Lab/Ce...

6️⃣ Critical infrastructure investments in transmission and storage are essential to accommodate the rapid growth of renewables. Without enhanced coordination, integrated planning and expanded infrastructure, China’s grid may face constraints, risking renewable curtailment and reliability issues.

5️⃣ Third, adopting a broader clean energy generation target (including hydro, nuclear, and biomass) of over 60% by 2030 and 70%-80% by 2035 is achievable and strategically beneficial.

4️⃣ Second, introducing explicit wind and solar generation share targets—eg achieving ~ 40% by 2030 and reaching 50% by 2035—would provide clear guidance to maintain momentum toward 2060 carbon neutrality.

3️⃣ Our study recommends several sets of possible targets for China to set its sights high on RE. First, renewable energy capacity targets: 2030 goal could rise from 1,200 GW to at least 2,200 GW, and by 2035 an ambitious target of 2,800 GW by 2035 to ensure robust progress toward climate goals.

2️⃣ Wind and solar energy's role in China’s electricity mix will grow dramatically—from 17.9% in 2024 to 41%–46% by 2030, and further to 49%–56% by 2035. This substantial increase underscores the pivotal role renewable energy will play in China’s decarbonization efforts.

1️⃣ Consistent with a 2ºC scenario, China will need to significantly scale its wind and solar installations. We project requirements of 2,350–2,780 GW by 2030 and increasing to 2,910–3,800 GW by 2035.