Mykola Bielieskov
@mykolabielieskov.bsky.social
Research fellow at National Institute for Strategic Studies under UA President, senior analyst at UA NGO “Come back alive”; all ideas tabled here are private position
Escalation management as basis of Biden Admin policy to UA-RU big war is in contradiction with sound mil strategy which is about destroying enemy in defence&offence quicker than he recovers without giving him a chance to regroup&adjust. Sure gen Patton would have said just that.
November 10, 2023 at 2:08 PM
Escalation management as basis of Biden Admin policy to UA-RU big war is in contradiction with sound mil strategy which is about destroying enemy in defence&offence quicker than he recovers without giving him a chance to regroup&adjust. Sure gen Patton would have said just that.
If RU decides to conduct another major offensive these missiles both in cluster&unitary warheads versions might prove instrumental in easing pressure on frontline UA formations provided proper application.
SRBM ATACMS is surest way for US to sustain UA fighting in short order.
SRBM ATACMS is surest way for US to sustain UA fighting in short order.
November 10, 2023 at 12:17 PM
If RU decides to conduct another major offensive these missiles both in cluster&unitary warheads versions might prove instrumental in easing pressure on frontline UA formations provided proper application.
SRBM ATACMS is surest way for US to sustain UA fighting in short order.
SRBM ATACMS is surest way for US to sustain UA fighting in short order.
Good calculation
November 10, 2023 at 6:32 AM
Good calculation
Today 19th missile brigade of UA Defense Forces celebrated day of its establishment.
19th brigade employed SRBM Tochka-U against RU both in 2014-15 and after 24.02.
But before 2007 19th brigade had SRBM SCUD which Ukraine was pressed to scrap under nonproliferation rubric.
19th brigade employed SRBM Tochka-U against RU both in 2014-15 and after 24.02.
But before 2007 19th brigade had SRBM SCUD which Ukraine was pressed to scrap under nonproliferation rubric.
November 9, 2023 at 8:38 PM
Today 19th missile brigade of UA Defense Forces celebrated day of its establishment.
19th brigade employed SRBM Tochka-U against RU both in 2014-15 and after 24.02.
But before 2007 19th brigade had SRBM SCUD which Ukraine was pressed to scrap under nonproliferation rubric.
19th brigade employed SRBM Tochka-U against RU both in 2014-15 and after 24.02.
But before 2007 19th brigade had SRBM SCUD which Ukraine was pressed to scrap under nonproliferation rubric.
105 years ago today as A-H empire collapsed UAs seized key administrative buildings in Lviv to declare West Ukrainian People’ Republic.
Ukraine didn’t come out of blue in 1991. Our claim to statehood is based on feats of people who in 1917-18 made clear desire for independence.
Ukraine didn’t come out of blue in 1991. Our claim to statehood is based on feats of people who in 1917-18 made clear desire for independence.
November 1, 2023 at 11:48 AM
105 years ago today as A-H empire collapsed UAs seized key administrative buildings in Lviv to declare West Ukrainian People’ Republic.
Ukraine didn’t come out of blue in 1991. Our claim to statehood is based on feats of people who in 1917-18 made clear desire for independence.
Ukraine didn’t come out of blue in 1991. Our claim to statehood is based on feats of people who in 1917-18 made clear desire for independence.
Sustained flow along with wise employment of SRBM ATACMS even with cluster munitions warhead is not a silver bullet itself but it might create new dilemmas for RU grouping of forces and new openings for UA Defense Forces to exploit.
November 1, 2023 at 6:08 AM
Sustained flow along with wise employment of SRBM ATACMS even with cluster munitions warhead is not a silver bullet itself but it might create new dilemmas for RU grouping of forces and new openings for UA Defense Forces to exploit.
UA not only surrendered strat&tac nukes+delivery means but things like SRBMs SCUD&bombers Tu-22M3. UA was weakened under nonproliferation/disarmament rubric with no hard security guarantees in NATO. It was ok when RU was weak. But it proved disastrous when RU recovered.
October 31, 2023 at 1:05 PM
UA not only surrendered strat&tac nukes+delivery means but things like SRBMs SCUD&bombers Tu-22M3. UA was weakened under nonproliferation/disarmament rubric with no hard security guarantees in NATO. It was ok when RU was weak. But it proved disastrous when RU recovered.
Most of people think in terms of costs/risks of specific action instead of costs/risks of inaction. Unfortunately.
In some distant future people will agree that admitting UA into NATO would have been much cheaper than just transferring billion dollars of arms under Israeli model.
In some distant future people will agree that admitting UA into NATO would have been much cheaper than just transferring billion dollars of arms under Israeli model.
October 23, 2023 at 3:09 PM
Most of people think in terms of costs/risks of specific action instead of costs/risks of inaction. Unfortunately.
In some distant future people will agree that admitting UA into NATO would have been much cheaper than just transferring billion dollars of arms under Israeli model.
In some distant future people will agree that admitting UA into NATO would have been much cheaper than just transferring billion dollars of arms under Israeli model.
Prophets of “air power alone delivered effects” might be disappointed a little bit. Artillery still matters.
On the other hand it’s very unfortunate that US can’t deconflict rightly UA and Isreal needs - let Israel receive more JDAMs&Hellfires and UA gets more artillery ammo.
On the other hand it’s very unfortunate that US can’t deconflict rightly UA and Isreal needs - let Israel receive more JDAMs&Hellfires and UA gets more artillery ammo.
October 20, 2023 at 9:48 AM
Prophets of “air power alone delivered effects” might be disappointed a little bit. Artillery still matters.
On the other hand it’s very unfortunate that US can’t deconflict rightly UA and Isreal needs - let Israel receive more JDAMs&Hellfires and UA gets more artillery ammo.
On the other hand it’s very unfortunate that US can’t deconflict rightly UA and Isreal needs - let Israel receive more JDAMs&Hellfires and UA gets more artillery ammo.
If majority tend to turn a blind eye on biggest European war it won’t mean that problem somehow solve itself.
I’ve tried in broad terms to frame parameters of next year campaign and UA mil strategy for Atlantic council given objective constraint and known unknowns.
I’ve tried in broad terms to frame parameters of next year campaign and UA mil strategy for Atlantic council given objective constraint and known unknowns.
October 17, 2023 at 6:32 AM
If majority tend to turn a blind eye on biggest European war it won’t mean that problem somehow solve itself.
I’ve tried in broad terms to frame parameters of next year campaign and UA mil strategy for Atlantic council given objective constraint and known unknowns.
I’ve tried in broad terms to frame parameters of next year campaign and UA mil strategy for Atlantic council given objective constraint and known unknowns.
A transcript of conversation done with @fabricedeprez.bsky.social approximately month ago.
Hope you’ll find smth interesting that improve your understanding of UA-RU big war dynamics.
t.co/FIA7J8N8fx
Hope you’ll find smth interesting that improve your understanding of UA-RU big war dynamics.
t.co/FIA7J8N8fx
October 16, 2023 at 6:11 PM
A transcript of conversation done with @fabricedeprez.bsky.social approximately month ago.
Hope you’ll find smth interesting that improve your understanding of UA-RU big war dynamics.
t.co/FIA7J8N8fx
Hope you’ll find smth interesting that improve your understanding of UA-RU big war dynamics.
t.co/FIA7J8N8fx
This text aged well.
October 13, 2023 at 8:25 AM
This text aged well.
When your so called strategic depth is close to zero you have no other option than to hone such a mobilisation model. Impressive feat in any case.
October 11, 2023 at 12:16 PM
When your so called strategic depth is close to zero you have no other option than to hone such a mobilisation model. Impressive feat in any case.
First RU was allowed to mobilise, regroup, stabilise front line and create proper defense in depth with obstacles and now it’s about properly shaping perception.
Time lost is most precious thing in strategy.
Time lost is most precious thing in strategy.
October 10, 2023 at 12:32 PM
First RU was allowed to mobilise, regroup, stabilise front line and create proper defense in depth with obstacles and now it’s about properly shaping perception.
Time lost is most precious thing in strategy.
Time lost is most precious thing in strategy.
He-he. “China firsters” have been weakened in its argument “Let’s concentrate on China threat and disregard Russia ongoing aggression against Ukraine”. Republic of China politicians are more prudent and farsighted as clearly see a stake in UA-RU war proper endgame.
October 10, 2023 at 11:19 AM
He-he. “China firsters” have been weakened in its argument “Let’s concentrate on China threat and disregard Russia ongoing aggression against Ukraine”. Republic of China politicians are more prudent and farsighted as clearly see a stake in UA-RU war proper endgame.
Yom Kippur war which started 50 years ago today demonstrated that lethality of conventional weaponry increased a couple of times compared with WWII thought mil art applied by both sides was WWII in nature with manoeuvring and massing of preponderant power at certain points.
October 6, 2023 at 6:21 AM
Yom Kippur war which started 50 years ago today demonstrated that lethality of conventional weaponry increased a couple of times compared with WWII thought mil art applied by both sides was WWII in nature with manoeuvring and massing of preponderant power at certain points.
Ukraine taught NATO countries how to wage modern lethal combined arms warfare cheaply. It’s especially a conceptual challenge for US Armed Forces for which if it’s not a multibillion price tag attached it’s not a solution at all.
October 5, 2023 at 6:55 PM
Ukraine taught NATO countries how to wage modern lethal combined arms warfare cheaply. It’s especially a conceptual challenge for US Armed Forces for which if it’s not a multibillion price tag attached it’s not a solution at all.
Side effects of escalation management as cornerstone of Biden Admin policy emerge. People want to see decisive results which is natural. Decisive results can be ensured with speed of weaponry shipment to prevent RU from mobilisation, regrouping and stabilisation of frontline.
October 5, 2023 at 11:12 AM
Side effects of escalation management as cornerstone of Biden Admin policy emerge. People want to see decisive results which is natural. Decisive results can be ensured with speed of weaponry shipment to prevent RU from mobilisation, regrouping and stabilisation of frontline.
Out of “greatness of RU culture” the spectre of RU greatness in its ugliest forms might emerge one day…
October 5, 2023 at 6:18 AM
Out of “greatness of RU culture” the spectre of RU greatness in its ugliest forms might emerge one day…
Interesting document first scooped by POLITICO.
October 2, 2023 at 11:21 AM
Interesting document first scooped by POLITICO.