practically, if next 25-75bps doesn't unlock [housing/industrials/whatever] in next 6m but feeds AI debt origination machine as it ramps up, it might be counter-productive
idk the right balance here but feels like the debt piece will determine by how much ai capex overshoots over next 12-24m
idk the right balance here but feels like the debt piece will determine by how much ai capex overshoots over next 12-24m
November 19, 2025 at 7:37 PM
practically, if next 25-75bps doesn't unlock [housing/industrials/whatever] in next 6m but feeds AI debt origination machine as it ramps up, it might be counter-productive
idk the right balance here but feels like the debt piece will determine by how much ai capex overshoots over next 12-24m
idk the right balance here but feels like the debt piece will determine by how much ai capex overshoots over next 12-24m
interesting from woodmac latest LCOE forecast at end of decade even with sunsetting if IRA tax credits. Notable that lots of the behind the meter stuff fueling DCs right is among most expensive electricity source alas its what's available to them
November 18, 2025 at 4:19 PM
interesting from woodmac latest LCOE forecast at end of decade even with sunsetting if IRA tax credits. Notable that lots of the behind the meter stuff fueling DCs right is among most expensive electricity source alas its what's available to them
us energy and permitting and what not is really complex, but i think a good example lies in things like "rooftop solar" which had very rich incentives in the us and resulted in subsidies captured by parties other than end-consumers... so ira2.0 i think will have to do a lot more w/ less$
November 14, 2025 at 7:44 PM
us energy and permitting and what not is really complex, but i think a good example lies in things like "rooftop solar" which had very rich incentives in the us and resulted in subsidies captured by parties other than end-consumers... so ira2.0 i think will have to do a lot more w/ less$
Looks like it was a story that was pulled because ”NY Mag's lawyers weren't thrilled about a story that alleged various rich and potentially litigious men socialized with a sexual predator without any proof or calling them for comment.”
x.com/AlexYablon/s...
x.com/AlexYablon/s...
November 13, 2025 at 11:22 PM
Looks like it was a story that was pulled because ”NY Mag's lawyers weren't thrilled about a story that alleged various rich and potentially litigious men socialized with a sexual predator without any proof or calling them for comment.”
x.com/AlexYablon/s...
x.com/AlexYablon/s...
..(3) a seeming note to self describing a "list to steve bannon" which includes a host of known epstein associates/contacts and includes sulzberger on it. Like has anyone asked AG what his and his family's relationship with epstein was?
November 13, 2025 at 8:01 PM
..(3) a seeming note to self describing a "list to steve bannon" which includes a host of known epstein associates/contacts and includes sulzberger on it. Like has anyone asked AG what his and his family's relationship with epstein was?
...(2) a seemingly unpublished story about AG's grandpa having a chummy relationship with epstein at dalton and...
November 13, 2025 at 7:59 PM
...(2) a seemingly unpublished story about AG's grandpa having a chummy relationship with epstein at dalton and...
... its mentioned in (3) emails: (1) musings with wolff speculating ag is at risk of a metoo takedown...
November 13, 2025 at 7:58 PM
... its mentioned in (3) emails: (1) musings with wolff speculating ag is at risk of a metoo takedown...
this is an interesting mention of him in today's dump (context: bemoaning various peers getting metoo'ed)
November 13, 2025 at 3:08 AM
this is an interesting mention of him in today's dump (context: bemoaning various peers getting metoo'ed)
i sort of feel semianalysis would be a much better source to go to for this?
newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/microsofts...
newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/microsofts...
November 13, 2025 at 12:12 AM
i sort of feel semianalysis would be a much better source to go to for this?
newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/microsofts...
newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/microsofts...
lol there’s also a point of diminishing returns in the pursuit of mathematics as demonstrated by the wage discount found in math departments.
Anyway, really funny coming from the OP given her own background
Anyway, really funny coming from the OP given her own background
November 12, 2025 at 12:10 AM
lol there’s also a point of diminishing returns in the pursuit of mathematics as demonstrated by the wage discount found in math departments.
Anyway, really funny coming from the OP given her own background
Anyway, really funny coming from the OP given her own background
Similarly, there is a provision that gives Musk an out if regulators make it more difficult for him to deliver FSD/Bots/Robotaxis... (!) If Mcap goes to 3tn for even a short period of time over 10yrs and he can avail himself to this excuse, he can pocket close to $100bn under this comp package
November 11, 2025 at 4:15 PM
Similarly, there is a provision that gives Musk an out if regulators make it more difficult for him to deliver FSD/Bots/Robotaxis... (!) If Mcap goes to 3tn for even a short period of time over 10yrs and he can avail himself to this excuse, he can pocket close to $100bn under this comp package
Lots has been said about Musk's trillion dollar pay package, but what's remarkable to me is the level of compensation available to him if the company completely underperforms from hereon. If it only grows stock price by 4% p.a. and achieves 1.2m deliveries p.a., Musk earns salary of US$2bn a year!
November 11, 2025 at 4:08 PM
Lots has been said about Musk's trillion dollar pay package, but what's remarkable to me is the level of compensation available to him if the company completely underperforms from hereon. If it only grows stock price by 4% p.a. and achieves 1.2m deliveries p.a., Musk earns salary of US$2bn a year!
Ed promised he’s figured out depreciation
November 8, 2025 at 11:10 PM
Ed promised he’s figured out depreciation
It was 7.8 and included 2.5 in stock comp. feels like the 12bn following quarter must include significant non cash/extraordinary charges
November 8, 2025 at 3:34 AM
It was 7.8 and included 2.5 in stock comp. feels like the 12bn following quarter must include significant non cash/extraordinary charges
and other advanced goodies too...
November 7, 2025 at 11:38 PM
and other advanced goodies too...
the part that's really funny is traders essentially warehousing lng offtake deals for strategic tariff negotiations
October 29, 2025 at 9:49 PM
the part that's really funny is traders essentially warehousing lng offtake deals for strategic tariff negotiations
if you open up map and sort by "listings with price-cuts", I think you very much see this east of 16th and likely would take a loss (esp after fees) if you bought in past few yrs and need to exit today in those neighborhoods
October 29, 2025 at 7:48 PM
if you open up map and sort by "listings with price-cuts", I think you very much see this east of 16th and likely would take a loss (esp after fees) if you bought in past few yrs and need to exit today in those neighborhoods
Based on current trends, electricity cost will soon exceed gas expenditure for average American household - it helps that we don't pay for electricity in retail setting but hard to see how this doesn't turn into a more visceral political point heading into 2026+
October 29, 2025 at 2:37 AM
Based on current trends, electricity cost will soon exceed gas expenditure for average American household - it helps that we don't pay for electricity in retail setting but hard to see how this doesn't turn into a more visceral political point heading into 2026+
just feels so far out and too small relative to the gas stuff - via bbg: "three planned restarts could add about 2.3 GW by decade’s end" www.bloomberg.com/professional...
October 29, 2025 at 1:56 AM
just feels so far out and too small relative to the gas stuff - via bbg: "three planned restarts could add about 2.3 GW by decade’s end" www.bloomberg.com/professional...
I think the below doesn't look that extreme but is basically the same density.
Intuitively, I think its a bit like school - some can just sit and write papers all day in their room alone and others (most?) are better in a more social library/study hall setting.
Intuitively, I think its a bit like school - some can just sit and write papers all day in their room alone and others (most?) are better in a more social library/study hall setting.
October 23, 2025 at 2:39 PM
I think the below doesn't look that extreme but is basically the same density.
Intuitively, I think its a bit like school - some can just sit and write papers all day in their room alone and others (most?) are better in a more social library/study hall setting.
Intuitively, I think its a bit like school - some can just sit and write papers all day in their room alone and others (most?) are better in a more social library/study hall setting.
feels off based on moco vibes. Redfin suggests slightly less extreme swing?
October 2, 2025 at 11:39 PM
feels off based on moco vibes. Redfin suggests slightly less extreme swing?
there is this limitation of where some of these sectors (energy & industrials...) felt their ideological alignment would yield accretive policy and yet it turned into a limited attention economy for this stuff that goes to highest bidder (tech & crypto)
September 24, 2025 at 7:32 PM
there is this limitation of where some of these sectors (energy & industrials...) felt their ideological alignment would yield accretive policy and yet it turned into a limited attention economy for this stuff that goes to highest bidder (tech & crypto)
you obviously get to keep all the specialty seafood items from the Asian Pizza Hut menus items in region "D"
September 17, 2025 at 3:43 PM
you obviously get to keep all the specialty seafood items from the Asian Pizza Hut menus items in region "D"
this Is basically the gist of current us energy dominance policy: ability to peddle conflicting strategies without having to reconcile their consequences. This chart also might have consequences not fully digested on power/lng in a stagnant/declining us liquids prod environment.
September 14, 2025 at 11:42 PM
this Is basically the gist of current us energy dominance policy: ability to peddle conflicting strategies without having to reconcile their consequences. This chart also might have consequences not fully digested on power/lng in a stagnant/declining us liquids prod environment.
I had to jog my memory and UberX only launched in 2012, and I think the growth we associate it with happened only really in second half of the decade. This is Millennial bias but not having as many prospects of easy$ perhaps led into more investment into career-enhancing prospects (grad school etc)
July 23, 2025 at 1:00 PM
I had to jog my memory and UberX only launched in 2012, and I think the growth we associate it with happened only really in second half of the decade. This is Millennial bias but not having as many prospects of easy$ perhaps led into more investment into career-enhancing prospects (grad school etc)