Peter Garnry, CFA
@petergarnry.gesdacapital.com
CEO & Co-founder at Gesda Capital. I’m passionated about equity investing and equity valuation. My vision is to show that active equity investing can work if set up properly. I was previously the Chief Investment Strategist at Saxo Bank.
Waymo will likely end up being the category winner based on the information we have today. What is the value of that business to Alphabet?
“Waymo has never rear-ended another vehicle at injury level.” www.nytimes.com/2025/12/02/o...
Opinion | Don’t Fear Self-Driving Cars. They Save Lives.
www.nytimes.com
December 2, 2025 at 4:19 PM
Waymo will likely end up being the category winner based on the information we have today. What is the value of that business to Alphabet?
We always talk about the ressource curse when it comes to commodities.
What if high concentration and wealth from technology sector is also a ressource curse?
What if high concentration and wealth from technology sector is also a ressource curse?
December 2, 2025 at 11:44 AM
We always talk about the ressource curse when it comes to commodities.
What if high concentration and wealth from technology sector is also a ressource curse?
What if high concentration and wealth from technology sector is also a ressource curse?
Interesting observation.
Push marketing for Copilot across Microsoft’s productivity suite has increased.
Google has also increased its push marketing recently when you engaged on Google Search.
Push marketing for Copilot across Microsoft’s productivity suite has increased.
Google has also increased its push marketing recently when you engaged on Google Search.
December 2, 2025 at 8:12 AM
Interesting observation.
Push marketing for Copilot across Microsoft’s productivity suite has increased.
Google has also increased its push marketing recently when you engaged on Google Search.
Push marketing for Copilot across Microsoft’s productivity suite has increased.
Google has also increased its push marketing recently when you engaged on Google Search.
One can spin it both ways but given the state of the lower part of the K economy I find this distressing. Not a good sign.
Klarna, the Buy Now Pay Later app, a reported a 45% year-over-year jump in U.S. sales from November 1 through Black Friday.
December 1, 2025 at 9:15 PM
One can spin it both ways but given the state of the lower part of the K economy I find this distressing. Not a good sign.
It is Christmas time so let us talk about snowballs! ⛄️
After more than 22 years investing in equities and thinking about markets I finally got to read the Warren Buffett biography The Snowball.
Here are my three main takeaways. Yes, I am a bit critical…
open.substack.com/pub/petergar...
After more than 22 years investing in equities and thinking about markets I finally got to read the Warren Buffett biography The Snowball.
Here are my three main takeaways. Yes, I am a bit critical…
open.substack.com/pub/petergar...
The most famous snowball
Learnings from Warren Buffett's life and investments
open.substack.com
December 1, 2025 at 8:33 PM
It is Christmas time so let us talk about snowballs! ⛄️
After more than 22 years investing in equities and thinking about markets I finally got to read the Warren Buffett biography The Snowball.
Here are my three main takeaways. Yes, I am a bit critical…
open.substack.com/pub/petergar...
After more than 22 years investing in equities and thinking about markets I finally got to read the Warren Buffett biography The Snowball.
Here are my three main takeaways. Yes, I am a bit critical…
open.substack.com/pub/petergar...
It always find it interesting to plot a company’s revenue on a log scale. You clearly see patterns of growth rates changing.
In the case of Tesla it is quite remarkable…
$TSLA
In the case of Tesla it is quite remarkable…
$TSLA
November 28, 2025 at 8:43 PM
It always find it interesting to plot a company’s revenue on a log scale. You clearly see patterns of growth rates changing.
In the case of Tesla it is quite remarkable…
$TSLA
In the case of Tesla it is quite remarkable…
$TSLA
The glass half empty would say the jobs are never coming back and the biggest companies are getting stronger and more profitable.
The glass half full would say that it frees up resources which with the help of AI starts many new businesses faster and better that competes with the big.
The glass half full would say that it frees up resources which with the help of AI starts many new businesses faster and better that competes with the big.
The alarming trend I'm seeing in 2025 is that companies are quietly laying off employees and replacing their positions with AI.
This means that even if the economy improves, those jobs are not coming back.
So where will these people work? What will this do to our economy?
This means that even if the economy improves, those jobs are not coming back.
So where will these people work? What will this do to our economy?
November 27, 2025 at 2:56 PM
The glass half empty would say the jobs are never coming back and the biggest companies are getting stronger and more profitable.
The glass half full would say that it frees up resources which with the help of AI starts many new businesses faster and better that competes with the big.
The glass half full would say that it frees up resources which with the help of AI starts many new businesses faster and better that competes with the big.
Google was never really out. They had the LLM idea before OpenAI, but was slowed down by ethical concerns.
Hassabis and his team at DeepMind is in a class of its own. Hassabis is also much hype driven and more scientific in his approach.
Google was never of the game…
Hassabis and his team at DeepMind is in a class of its own. Hassabis is also much hype driven and more scientific in his approach.
Google was never of the game…
Gemini 3’s Success Means Google Is Back, Baby
Gemini 3’s Success Means Google Is Back, Baby
Plus: Beware of AI-generated slop recipes this Thanksgiving.
www.forbes.com
November 27, 2025 at 8:01 AM
Google was never really out. They had the LLM idea before OpenAI, but was slowed down by ethical concerns.
Hassabis and his team at DeepMind is in a class of its own. Hassabis is also much hype driven and more scientific in his approach.
Google was never of the game…
Hassabis and his team at DeepMind is in a class of its own. Hassabis is also much hype driven and more scientific in his approach.
Google was never of the game…
This highlights the dangers of being exposed in the part of the value chain where the winning position can quickly flip. There are other ways to play AI more conservatively…
Google has taken OpenAI to the woodshed. 👀
(via MS desk) $GOOGL
(via MS desk) $GOOGL
November 27, 2025 at 7:57 AM
This highlights the dangers of being exposed in the part of the value chain where the winning position can quickly flip. There are other ways to play AI more conservatively…
To a large extent, this is the reason why Europe has chosen to socialise the costs of childcare.
It expands labour participation without penalising the lower 25% of the distribution from adding number two in the household to the labour market.
It is a mindset…
It expands labour participation without penalising the lower 25% of the distribution from adding number two in the household to the labour market.
It is a mindset…
This is an insightful but deeply upsetting article about why everyone in the US feels poor, and why the current political situation emerges as a direct result.
www.yesigiveafig.com/p/part-1-my-...
www.yesigiveafig.com/p/part-1-my-...
Part 1: My Life Is a Lie
How a Broken Benchmark Quietly Broke America
www.yesigiveafig.com
November 26, 2025 at 8:06 AM
To a large extent, this is the reason why Europe has chosen to socialise the costs of childcare.
It expands labour participation without penalising the lower 25% of the distribution from adding number two in the household to the labour market.
It is a mindset…
It expands labour participation without penalising the lower 25% of the distribution from adding number two in the household to the labour market.
It is a mindset…
I always like to listen to Antti Ilmanen because he is so genuine and humble.
On the CAPE ratio I left it intellectually long time ago. It is well established that intangibles changed a lot in equity valuation and accounting. 1/n
podcasts.apple.com/dk/podcast/t...
On the CAPE ratio I left it intellectually long time ago. It is well established that intangibles changed a lot in equity valuation and accounting. 1/n
podcasts.apple.com/dk/podcast/t...
AQR’s Antti Ilmanen – US Exceptionalism: Growth Story or Valuation Trap? | #607
Podcastepisode · The Meb Faber Show - Better Investing · 21.11.2025 · 1 t. 4 min.
podcasts.apple.com
November 26, 2025 at 7:53 AM
I always like to listen to Antti Ilmanen because he is so genuine and humble.
On the CAPE ratio I left it intellectually long time ago. It is well established that intangibles changed a lot in equity valuation and accounting. 1/n
podcasts.apple.com/dk/podcast/t...
On the CAPE ratio I left it intellectually long time ago. It is well established that intangibles changed a lot in equity valuation and accounting. 1/n
podcasts.apple.com/dk/podcast/t...
I think I will print Oracle’s FCF over the past 30 years, frame it, and then put it up on the wall of our office.
It really is one for the ages…
It really is one for the ages…
November 20, 2025 at 8:44 PM
I think I will print Oracle’s FCF over the past 30 years, frame it, and then put it up on the wall of our office.
It really is one for the ages…
It really is one for the ages…
Nvidia has four customers that are 65% of their business.
November 20, 2025 at 11:42 AM
Nvidia has four customers that are 65% of their business.
An early Christmas present arrived today. Really looking forward to read the book “The Compounders”.
November 20, 2025 at 11:37 AM
An early Christmas present arrived today. Really looking forward to read the book “The Compounders”.
Congratulations to 🏴! One of the most craziest matches I have ever seen with the Danish national team in football.
Now we are going through two nerve wrecking playoff matches before hopefully reaching the World Cup 2026.
Go 🇩🇰 !
Now we are going through two nerve wrecking playoff matches before hopefully reaching the World Cup 2026.
Go 🇩🇰 !
November 18, 2025 at 10:02 PM
Congratulations to 🏴! One of the most craziest matches I have ever seen with the Danish national team in football.
Now we are going through two nerve wrecking playoff matches before hopefully reaching the World Cup 2026.
Go 🇩🇰 !
Now we are going through two nerve wrecking playoff matches before hopefully reaching the World Cup 2026.
Go 🇩🇰 !
Thanks for sharing @jessefelder.bsky.social - you were faster than I was to get the message out…
‘Many high-SBC companies use excess cash flow to buy back their own shares. If the company does this to conceal dilution, then the so-called free cash flows were not truly “free to shareholders.”’ petergarnry.substack.com/p/free-cash-... by @petergarnry.gesdacapital.com
Free cash flow mirage
How share-based compensation masks the true profitability
petergarnry.substack.com
November 18, 2025 at 9:59 PM
Thanks for sharing @jessefelder.bsky.social - you were faster than I was to get the message out…
Is Lululemon the new Under Armour?
Investors pay nothing for future growth, but revenue growth has derailed a lot from the long-term trend. Can the company find its way back to solid growth?
$LULU #stocks
Investors pay nothing for future growth, but revenue growth has derailed a lot from the long-term trend. Can the company find its way back to solid growth?
$LULU #stocks
November 17, 2025 at 8:48 AM
Is Lululemon the new Under Armour?
Investors pay nothing for future growth, but revenue growth has derailed a lot from the long-term trend. Can the company find its way back to solid growth?
$LULU #stocks
Investors pay nothing for future growth, but revenue growth has derailed a lot from the long-term trend. Can the company find its way back to solid growth?
$LULU #stocks
Who will be holding the bag?
‘Billionaire Peter Thiel’s latest 13F didn’t show off a mere trim, but a full-blown exit from AI bellwether Nvidia (NVDA). Thiel had previously warned about AI’s hype cycle running far ahead of its real economics, and his Q3 portfolio shakeup aligns with that view.‘ www.thestreet.com/investing/pe...
November 16, 2025 at 5:55 PM
Who will be holding the bag?
A transformer on all banking is not a bad idea
November 14, 2025 at 11:26 PM
A transformer on all banking is not a bad idea
This chart shows that policies carried out in the US over the past couple of decades have not been generational neutral which is otherwise a good yardstick for any policy.
‘In 2010, the median age of all US homebuyers was 39 years old. Today, it is 59.’ www.apolloacademy.com/median-age-o...
November 13, 2025 at 6:34 PM
This chart shows that policies carried out in the US over the past couple of decades have not been generational neutral which is otherwise a good yardstick for any policy.
Reposted by Peter Garnry, CFA
Yardeni: “We are tracking the meltup scenario by monitoring the ratio of the S&P 100 to the S&P 500. The rapid rise in this ratio over the past couple of years is reminiscent of what happened during the Tech Bubble of the late 1990s.” www.dailychartbook.com/p/796 via @dailychartbook.bsky.social
November 13, 2025 at 3:38 PM
Yardeni: “We are tracking the meltup scenario by monitoring the ratio of the S&P 100 to the S&P 500. The rapid rise in this ratio over the past couple of years is reminiscent of what happened during the Tech Bubble of the late 1990s.” www.dailychartbook.com/p/796 via @dailychartbook.bsky.social
I like Cliff Asness’ comment on Odd Lots that 100% passive is a singularity. Like a black hole.
We know that we cannot go 100% but happens just before?
We know that we cannot go 100% but happens just before?
November 13, 2025 at 4:39 PM
I like Cliff Asness’ comment on Odd Lots that 100% passive is a singularity. Like a black hole.
We know that we cannot go 100% but happens just before?
We know that we cannot go 100% but happens just before?
Listed private equity firms are down 16.5% from the peak and have been in a drawdown since late January.
November 12, 2025 at 8:23 PM
Listed private equity firms are down 16.5% from the peak and have been in a drawdown since late January.
Det her er også et problem i Danmark. Jeg synes det er dybt foruroligende så meget betting fylder overalt. Og unge mænd er de mest sårbare viser statistikkerne…
Hate to keep beating the dead horse but sports betting is a societal scourge with serious repercussions www.statnews.com/2025/11/11/s... via @statnews.com
The rise of sports betting is a growing public health crisis
Sports betting is more addictive than ever, and millions of young Americans are paying the price.
www.statnews.com
November 11, 2025 at 10:33 PM
Det her er også et problem i Danmark. Jeg synes det er dybt foruroligende så meget betting fylder overalt. Og unge mænd er de mest sårbare viser statistikkerne…
I wrote an updated defense of active equity investing. I argue that the pendulum has swung too much in the direction of passive investing causing all sorts of distortions. Finally, I argue that understanding intangibles is a must for surviving the game...
petergarnry.substack.com/p/why-active...
petergarnry.substack.com/p/why-active...
Why active managers matter more than ever
The dominance of passive investing is at an inflection point
petergarnry.substack.com
November 10, 2025 at 9:23 PM
I wrote an updated defense of active equity investing. I argue that the pendulum has swung too much in the direction of passive investing causing all sorts of distortions. Finally, I argue that understanding intangibles is a must for surviving the game...
petergarnry.substack.com/p/why-active...
petergarnry.substack.com/p/why-active...