Vitaly Portnikov
@portnikov.bsky.social
Ukrainian author and journalist. Espreso TV. Radio Liberty. Visegrad Insight Fellow. Ukrainian PEN
The longer Donald Trump refrains from such leadership, the clearer the risk that the world will slide toward large-scale war. In that scenario, given contemporary realities and technological changes, the U.S. risks becoming not just an arbiter but a battlefield. open.substack.com/pub/portniko...
What Will Trump Do
The shift in Donald Trump’s rhetoric toward the Russian president and his aggression against Ukraine was received in Kyiv with optimism — but also with concern.
open.substack.com
September 29, 2025 at 5:14 PM
The longer Donald Trump refrains from such leadership, the clearer the risk that the world will slide toward large-scale war. In that scenario, given contemporary realities and technological changes, the U.S. risks becoming not just an arbiter but a battlefield. open.substack.com/pub/portniko...
The managed escalation is no longer about Ukraine alone. It is about remaking the balance of power, one humiliation at a time. And with each red line crossed, Putin’s confidence grows — matched only by the West’s silence. open.substack.com/pub/portniko...
Putin’s Ultimatums and Trump’s Silence
Vladimir Putin’s latest threats to use “military-technical means” — in plain language, war — against the West mark a calculated continuation of his policy of managed escalation.
open.substack.com
September 22, 2025 at 2:49 PM
The managed escalation is no longer about Ukraine alone. It is about remaking the balance of power, one humiliation at a time. And with each red line crossed, Putin’s confidence grows — matched only by the West’s silence. open.substack.com/pub/portniko...
That is why I say — without exaggeration — that the frontline which will run for years between Ukrainian and Russian armies is not only a military boundary. It is also becoming the civilizational border of China. open.substack.com/pub/portniko...
Russia’s Asian Turn
When I argue that the most important outcome of Russia’s war against Ukraine is not just territorial aggression, but a deliberate civilizational pivot from Europe to Asia, many see it as an exaggerati...
open.substack.com
September 21, 2025 at 3:09 PM
That is why I say — without exaggeration — that the frontline which will run for years between Ukrainian and Russian armies is not only a military boundary. It is also becoming the civilizational border of China. open.substack.com/pub/portniko...
Donald Trump’s return to the White House is itself a precondition for a major war. He is dismantling the system of alliances that for decades restrained chaos.
open.substack.com/pub/portniko...
open.substack.com/pub/portniko...
Saudi Arabia and Pakistan: A Dangerous New Alliance
The signing of a strategic cooperation agreement between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan is not just a diplomatic gesture.
open.substack.com
September 19, 2025 at 2:46 PM
Donald Trump’s return to the White House is itself a precondition for a major war. He is dismantling the system of alliances that for decades restrained chaos.
open.substack.com/pub/portniko...
open.substack.com/pub/portniko...
The information campaign surrounding the resignation of Dmitry Kozak from the Russian presidential administration once again exposes the vulnerability of both Ukrainian and Western media spaces to Kremlin manipulation. open.substack.com/pub/portniko...
The Kozak Illusion
The information campaign surrounding the resignation of Dmitry Kozak from the Russian presidential administration once again exposes the vulnerability of both Ukrainian and Western media spaces to Kre...
open.substack.com
September 18, 2025 at 3:01 PM
The information campaign surrounding the resignation of Dmitry Kozak from the Russian presidential administration once again exposes the vulnerability of both Ukrainian and Western media spaces to Kremlin manipulation. open.substack.com/pub/portniko...
Which means that if it turns out the West lacks an effective judiciary—the judiciary, not just free media—then disobedient journalists will soon disappear not only from Trump’s press conferences but from America
open.substack.com/pub/portniko...
open.substack.com/pub/portniko...
From Populist to Autocrat: Trump’s Roadmap
Donald Trump, who publicly promises an Australian journalist to complain about him to the Prime Minister of Australia, may at first provoke only a condescending smile.
open.substack.com
September 17, 2025 at 10:12 AM
Which means that if it turns out the West lacks an effective judiciary—the judiciary, not just free media—then disobedient journalists will soon disappear not only from Trump’s press conferences but from America
open.substack.com/pub/portniko...
open.substack.com/pub/portniko...
Putin made mistakes — classic Putin-style mistakes.
open.substack.com/pub/portniko...
open.substack.com/pub/portniko...
This isn’t an apocalypse. It’s a pause.
Just a month ago, Trump expressed doubts that Putin wanted to end the war.
open.substack.com
July 27, 2025 at 11:51 AM
Putin made mistakes — classic Putin-style mistakes.
open.substack.com/pub/portniko...
open.substack.com/pub/portniko...
And to restore the Soviet Union, Russia first and foremost needs Ukraine. We see it clearly — in the war now raging on Ukrainian soil. Without Ukraine, the Russian Federation does not see itself as a European power. open.substack.com/pub/portniko...
The Empire Never Left
I clearly warned that if the Russian Federation declared independence, it would inevitably lead to war — both on its own territory and across the entire former Soviet space.
open.substack.com
July 26, 2025 at 3:00 PM
And to restore the Soviet Union, Russia first and foremost needs Ukraine. We see it clearly — in the war now raging on Ukrainian soil. Without Ukraine, the Russian Federation does not see itself as a European power. open.substack.com/pub/portniko...
From the Kremlin’s point of view, Azerbaijan is a territory that will eventually lose its statehood and become part of an empire that Russia is actively trying to resurrect. Not as a fantasy — as a concrete political project.
open.substack.com/pub/portniko...
open.substack.com/pub/portniko...
Why Russia Will Never Say Sorry
I’m not surprised by how Moscow is behaving after the tragedy involving the Azerbaijani passenger aircraft.
open.substack.com
July 25, 2025 at 3:36 PM
From the Kremlin’s point of view, Azerbaijan is a territory that will eventually lose its statehood and become part of an empire that Russia is actively trying to resurrect. Not as a fantasy — as a concrete political project.
open.substack.com/pub/portniko...
open.substack.com/pub/portniko...
I keep wondering whether this is due to political short-sightedness and incompetence — or if it’s simply the result of vested business interests,with certain circles eager to profit from deals with China, even if it means sacrificing Ukraine’s sovereignty and future open.substack.com/pub/portniko...
Ukraine’s Taiwan Card in the China Game
This Thursday, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President António Costa will travel to China for the EU–China Summit.
open.substack.com
July 21, 2025 at 9:09 AM
I keep wondering whether this is due to political short-sightedness and incompetence — or if it’s simply the result of vested business interests,with certain circles eager to profit from deals with China, even if it means sacrificing Ukraine’s sovereignty and future open.substack.com/pub/portniko...
So yes — Trump’s frustration with the “set” he built around Putin is our opportunity. And it would be a sin not to take advantage of it. open.substack.com/pub/portniko...
Trump vs. Putin: When the Set Collapses
Has Donald Trump Changed His Stance on Russia and Putin?
open.substack.com
July 15, 2025 at 9:08 AM
So yes — Trump’s frustration with the “set” he built around Putin is our opportunity. And it would be a sin not to take advantage of it. open.substack.com/pub/portniko...
If the West again chooses “peace” over justice, we will end up like Bosnia — fractured, dysfunctional, forever haunted. If Russia is rewarded for its crimes, if Putin gets to dictate terms, then Bucha becomes our Srebrenica. And the world will forget us too.
open.substack.com/pub/portniko...
open.substack.com/pub/portniko...
The Balkan Bucha
This week, the world marks 30 years since the Srebrenica massacre — one of the darkest chapters in Europe’s modern history.
open.substack.com
July 13, 2025 at 9:27 AM
If the West again chooses “peace” over justice, we will end up like Bosnia — fractured, dysfunctional, forever haunted. If Russia is rewarded for its crimes, if Putin gets to dictate terms, then Bucha becomes our Srebrenica. And the world will forget us too.
open.substack.com/pub/portniko...
open.substack.com/pub/portniko...
Today, the scale of Putin’s bombing campaign seems designed to push the West toward legitimizing the results of Russia’s crimes and annexations as well. But even if concessions to Putin turn Ukraine into another Bosnia, it won’t prevent another war. open.substack.com/pub/portniko...
open.substack.com
July 11, 2025 at 2:34 PM
Today, the scale of Putin’s bombing campaign seems designed to push the West toward legitimizing the results of Russia’s crimes and annexations as well. But even if concessions to Putin turn Ukraine into another Bosnia, it won’t prevent another war. open.substack.com/pub/portniko...
The main thing about the meeting between Ilham Aliyev and Nikol Pashinyan is that bilateral negotiations without mediators took place at all. And that there was no shadow of Putin behind both participants.
youtu.be/R9u-LK99Pq8
youtu.be/R9u-LK99Pq8
Алиев-Пашинян: главное | Виталий Портников
YouTube video by Портников. Аргументы
youtu.be
July 11, 2025 at 1:57 PM
The main thing about the meeting between Ilham Aliyev and Nikol Pashinyan is that bilateral negotiations without mediators took place at all. And that there was no shadow of Putin behind both participants.
youtu.be/R9u-LK99Pq8
youtu.be/R9u-LK99Pq8
Putin wants not only to occupy more Ukrainian territory, but also to force the Ukrainians to surrender. This is the main goal of shelling peaceful Ukrainian cities.
youtu.be/K4qoyRc8nik
youtu.be/K4qoyRc8nik
Головна ціль обстрілів Путіна | Віталій Портников @gvlua
YouTube video by Віталій Портников
youtu.be
July 11, 2025 at 8:04 AM
Putin wants not only to occupy more Ukrainian territory, but also to force the Ukrainians to surrender. This is the main goal of shelling peaceful Ukrainian cities.
youtu.be/K4qoyRc8nik
youtu.be/K4qoyRc8nik
Marco Rubio's first meeting with Sergey Lavrov after Trump's disappointment with Putin ended with talks about some new approach to war
«Новий підхід» до війни | Віталій Портников
youtu.be/1ko_dyfrD_k
«Новий підхід» до війни | Віталій Портников
youtu.be/1ko_dyfrD_k
«Новий підхід» до війни | Віталій Портников
YouTube video by Віталій Портников
youtu.be
July 10, 2025 at 2:02 PM
Marco Rubio's first meeting with Sergey Lavrov after Trump's disappointment with Putin ended with talks about some new approach to war
«Новий підхід» до війни | Віталій Портников
youtu.be/1ko_dyfrD_k
«Новий підхід» до війни | Віталій Портников
youtu.be/1ko_dyfrD_k
Vitalii’s Substack
portnikov.substack.com?r=mrti1&utm_...
portnikov.substack.com?r=mrti1&utm_...
Vitalii’s Substack | Vitalii Portnikov | Substack
My personal Substack. Click to read Vitalii’s Substack, by Vitalii Portnikov, a Substack publication. Launched 2 minutes ago.
portnikov.substack.com
July 9, 2025 at 9:44 PM
Vitalii’s Substack
portnikov.substack.com?r=mrti1&utm_...
portnikov.substack.com?r=mrti1&utm_...
Russia’s summer offensive stalls across all fronts. Is Putin's grand plan collapsing before our eyes?
youtu.be/VIRF_7plq1Y
youtu.be/VIRF_7plq1Y
Putin’s Summer Offensive Is Falling Apart | Portnikov Post
YouTube video by Portnikov Post
youtu.be
June 30, 2025 at 9:26 AM
Russia’s summer offensive stalls across all fronts. Is Putin's grand plan collapsing before our eyes?
youtu.be/VIRF_7plq1Y
youtu.be/VIRF_7plq1Y
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said that Donald Trump is ready to come to his country to meet with Vladimir Putin to resolve the issue of ending the Russian-Ukrainian war. However, it is unlikely that Putin needs such a meeting.
youtu.be/wnjbBWN_9I8
youtu.be/wnjbBWN_9I8
Will Putin Meet Trump to End the Ukraine War? | Portnikov Post
YouTube video by Portnikov Post
youtu.be
June 27, 2025 at 10:11 AM
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said that Donald Trump is ready to come to his country to meet with Vladimir Putin to resolve the issue of ending the Russian-Ukrainian war. However, it is unlikely that Putin needs such a meeting.
youtu.be/wnjbBWN_9I8
youtu.be/wnjbBWN_9I8
Putin continues to feign readiness for negotiations and insist on the legality of the occupation of Ukrainian territories. This is his tactic towards Trump.
youtu.be/mIWPjbhqe-4
youtu.be/mIWPjbhqe-4
Нові заяви Путіна: головне | Віталій Портников
YouTube video by Віталій Портников
youtu.be
June 19, 2025 at 8:02 AM
Putin continues to feign readiness for negotiations and insist on the legality of the occupation of Ukrainian territories. This is his tactic towards Trump.
youtu.be/mIWPjbhqe-4
youtu.be/mIWPjbhqe-4
The second day of war in the Middle East marks a dangerous turning point. Iran threatens retaliation against Western forces, while proxy groups and missile strikes raise fears of a wider regional conflict.
youtu.be/3a4Ib0zT-Mo
youtu.be/3a4Ib0zT-Mo
Iran vs Israel: War Without Limits | Portnikov Post
YouTube video by Portnikov Post
youtu.be
June 15, 2025 at 10:40 AM
The second day of war in the Middle East marks a dangerous turning point. Iran threatens retaliation against Western forces, while proxy groups and missile strikes raise fears of a wider regional conflict.
youtu.be/3a4Ib0zT-Mo
youtu.be/3a4Ib0zT-Mo
What Israel and Ukraine have demonstrated is not simply ingenuity. It is necessity. And the longer Western democracies fail to absorb this lesson, the more fragile their own security will become. blogs.timesofisrael.com/ukraine-isra...
The Blogs: Ukraine, Israel, and the Drone Doctrine
From the blog of Vitalii Portnikov at The Times of Israel
blogs.timesofisrael.com
June 13, 2025 at 2:36 PM
What Israel and Ukraine have demonstrated is not simply ingenuity. It is necessity. And the longer Western democracies fail to absorb this lesson, the more fragile their own security will become. blogs.timesofisrael.com/ukraine-isra...
The world is on the brink of a major war in the Middle East, with rising tensions between the U.S., Iran, and Israel. As nuclear risks escalate and diplomacy collapses, global attention may shift away from Ukraine — just as authoritarian regimes like Russia stand to benefit.
youtu.be/maimk_RVPe0
youtu.be/maimk_RVPe0
Trump’s Gamble: Will the Middle East Explode? | Portnikov Post
YouTube video by Portnikov Post
youtu.be
June 12, 2025 at 5:03 PM
The world is on the brink of a major war in the Middle East, with rising tensions between the U.S., Iran, and Israel. As nuclear risks escalate and diplomacy collapses, global attention may shift away from Ukraine — just as authoritarian regimes like Russia stand to benefit.
youtu.be/maimk_RVPe0
youtu.be/maimk_RVPe0
A top Russian negotiator revives threats of territorial losses for Ukraine if it rejects ultimatums.But behind this narrative lies a deeper obsession — a false imperial myth about “one people,”used to justify war,deny Ukrainian sovereignty,and rewrite history to suit propaganda
youtu.be/XA69VFre16o
youtu.be/XA69VFre16o
Russia Won’t End the War — And This Is Why | Portnikov Post
YouTube video by Portnikov Post
youtu.be
June 12, 2025 at 7:32 AM
A top Russian negotiator revives threats of territorial losses for Ukraine if it rejects ultimatums.But behind this narrative lies a deeper obsession — a false imperial myth about “one people,”used to justify war,deny Ukrainian sovereignty,and rewrite history to suit propaganda
youtu.be/XA69VFre16o
youtu.be/XA69VFre16o
Putin’s virtual meeting of Russia’s Security Council, framed as a response to Ukraine but focused on “traditional values.” Behind this rhetoric lies a deeper message: an appeal to the far right in the West and a warning — choose Russia as a partner, or face war.
youtu.be/75NUq9hLfC8
youtu.be/75NUq9hLfC8
Putin’s “Security Council” and the Message to the Far Right | Portnikov Post
YouTube video by Portnikov Post
youtu.be
June 11, 2025 at 10:34 AM
Putin’s virtual meeting of Russia’s Security Council, framed as a response to Ukraine but focused on “traditional values.” Behind this rhetoric lies a deeper message: an appeal to the far right in the West and a warning — choose Russia as a partner, or face war.
youtu.be/75NUq9hLfC8
youtu.be/75NUq9hLfC8