Awesome! Yeah it’s a great way to highlight the evolution of these important environmental values for TC activity.

Sad but true 😔… felt this a lot of times in upstate SC.

Really love the idea you have of producing joint probabilities of relevant TC env, but can’t help but wonder how sensitive this result is to the thresholds you have chosen. Maybe try RH >70%, SSTs >27C, & shear <7.5 m/s. May also need to use vortex removal to get rid of TC influenced environments.

Interesting plot… but a little confused on the AEW activity right at the end of the plot in late Oct right before Nov. Aside from the wave the spawned #Melissa what other waves were contributing to the index… could this be a case of much activity produced by one single TC in the MDR box?

That’s great to hear the progress in this space! Really with future funding for supercomputers likely partitioning between both CPUs & GPUs, it’s going to be increasingly critical going forward for physics based models behind able to run with CPUs/GPUs. Looking forward to seeing the developments!

They won’t go away *if* funding is provided for these critical datasets. We are at a pretty precarious crossroads in ATMS. A big advantage of ML-based modeling techniques is efficiency gains using GPUs.

We should also spend similar efforts rewriting NWP for GPUs for similar parallelization gains.

Interesting to see that the only period where the shear went above normal in Aug-Sep-Oct was at end of October, when #Melissa was in the Caribbean.

There was significant shear affecting it from 10-21 to 10-24, but if there was no vortex removal, some of the increase may be the TC vortex itself?

The last sentence resonated with me most. We now have a TC ensemble, in addition to hurricane regional models, capable of forecasting high-end TC intensity.

In Melissa's case, combo of HAFS-A/B & Google DeepMind increased confidence in a Category 5 forecast.

Human interpretation & NWP still vital.

Unfortunately #Senyar has been a very impactful system. Widespread flooding appears to have taken the lives of hundreds of people across #Thailand, #Malaysia, & #Indonesia. 😔

www.dw.com/en/southeast...

We just so happened to be driving along the San Luis Reservoir on Hwy 152 where this was observed today. A good 10F difference between being in the fog (49F) vs in the clear (60F)! #CAwx