Patrick Chovanec
@prchovanec.bsky.social
Private sector economist. Former professor at China's Tsinghua University and Columbia SIPA. Author of “Cleared for the Option: A Year Learning to Fly”, now available on Amazon. Visit me at http://patrickchovanec.com
I don't think that's accurate. CPI y/y in January 2021 was +1.4%, which is the usual way to measure, though the annualized m/m rate was +6.0%, which shows that inflation was just starting to heat up.
December 8, 2025 at 8:50 PM
I don't think that's accurate. CPI y/y in January 2021 was +1.4%, which is the usual way to measure, though the annualized m/m rate was +6.0%, which shows that inflation was just starting to heat up.
Trump keeps claiming that gasoline has fallen below $2 per gallon. Actually, it in recent days it has fallen slightly to just below $3 per gallon.
December 7, 2025 at 6:39 AM
Trump keeps claiming that gasoline has fallen below $2 per gallon. Actually, it in recent days it has fallen slightly to just below $3 per gallon.
Things you first learn about when you're 79 years old.
December 6, 2025 at 3:11 PM
Things you first learn about when you're 79 years old.
Decaying hands rising from the grave to clutch at the Earth. Awesome.
December 5, 2025 at 9:17 PM
Decaying hands rising from the grave to clutch at the Earth. Awesome.
Someone should just stand outside the committee room with a big copy of this:
December 4, 2025 at 6:44 PM
Someone should just stand outside the committee room with a big copy of this:
It's just unbelievable what 80,000 Somalis have done to Minnesota.
December 3, 2025 at 11:28 PM
It's just unbelievable what 80,000 Somalis have done to Minnesota.
I'm guessing the high-pitched maniacal laugh is one give-away.
December 3, 2025 at 12:14 AM
I'm guessing the high-pitched maniacal laugh is one give-away.
Not to mention that Franklin just killed everyone in the copter with the back-blast from his RPG. Kind of appropriate, really.
December 2, 2025 at 1:46 PM
Not to mention that Franklin just killed everyone in the copter with the back-blast from his RPG. Kind of appropriate, really.
It still needs some human help, though.
December 2, 2025 at 2:28 AM
It still needs some human help, though.
I couldn't resist:
December 2, 2025 at 2:25 AM
I couldn't resist:
US manufacturers across multiple sectors responding to ISM survey continue to cite tariff uncertainty as a big damper on business and decision-making. Some are starting to make longer-term cutbacks due tariffs. Others mention the government shutdown as another negative.
December 1, 2025 at 4:30 PM
US manufacturers across multiple sectors responding to ISM survey continue to cite tariff uncertainty as a big damper on business and decision-making. Some are starting to make longer-term cutbacks due tariffs. Others mention the government shutdown as another negative.
New orders weakened by -2.0 points and remain in contraction, suggesting overall weakness will continue, even though output actually expanded slightly. Price pressure rose +0.5 points to 58.5. Order backlogs fell deep into contraction.
December 1, 2025 at 4:26 PM
New orders weakened by -2.0 points and remain in contraction, suggesting overall weakness will continue, even though output actually expanded slightly. Price pressure rose +0.5 points to 58.5. Order backlogs fell deep into contraction.
The ISM Manufacturing Index fell -0.5 points in November to 48.2, its 9th straight month of contraction.
December 1, 2025 at 4:24 PM
The ISM Manufacturing Index fell -0.5 points in November to 48.2, its 9th straight month of contraction.
As did their assessments of the family's future financial situation:
December 1, 2025 at 1:15 PM
As did their assessments of the family's future financial situation:
Consumer assessments of their family's current financial situation also deteriorated in November.
December 1, 2025 at 1:14 PM
Consumer assessments of their family's current financial situation also deteriorated in November.
Consumer perceptions of present conditions fell -4.3 points to 126.9, while their expectations for future conditions dropped -8.6 points to 63.2, well below the level (80) that typically indicates an impending recession.
December 1, 2025 at 1:12 PM
Consumer perceptions of present conditions fell -4.3 points to 126.9, while their expectations for future conditions dropped -8.6 points to 63.2, well below the level (80) that typically indicates an impending recession.
US Consumer Confidence (as measured by the Conference Board) fell a sharp -6.8 points in November to 88.7, its lowest level since April's tariff scare.
December 1, 2025 at 1:09 PM
US Consumer Confidence (as measured by the Conference Board) fell a sharp -6.8 points in November to 88.7, its lowest level since April's tariff scare.
If I had been grading, I wouldn't have said anything about it being "offensive" or "disrespectful", but would have hung my hat entirely on the missing requirements. Ok, you told us your personal reaction (we did ask), but nothing more.
December 1, 2025 at 4:36 AM
If I had been grading, I wouldn't have said anything about it being "offensive" or "disrespectful", but would have hung my hat entirely on the missing requirements. Ok, you told us your personal reaction (we did ask), but nothing more.
Pete Hegseth, being informed that - contrary to what he was told - a max PT score does not give you immunity for war crimes:
November 30, 2025 at 3:52 PM
Pete Hegseth, being informed that - contrary to what he was told - a max PT score does not give you immunity for war crimes:
The captain of a German submarine in WWI was also accused war crimes related to sinking the hospital ship HMHS Llandovery Castle in June 1918. Besides sinking the ship itself, he was charged with ramming and firing on lifeboats carrying the survivors. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Helmut_...
November 30, 2025 at 3:33 PM
The captain of a German submarine in WWI was also accused war crimes related to sinking the hospital ship HMHS Llandovery Castle in June 1918. Besides sinking the ship itself, he was charged with ramming and firing on lifeboats carrying the survivors. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Helmut_...
At least three Imperial Japanese Navy captains were charged with killing survivors of Allied ships that had been sunk. Two were convicted and executed; a third committed suicide.
November 30, 2025 at 3:11 PM
At least three Imperial Japanese Navy captains were charged with killing survivors of Allied ships that had been sunk. Two were convicted and executed; a third committed suicide.
What the hell is this "kulturkampf" shit from the Department of Labor? Don't they have actual jobs to do?
November 29, 2025 at 5:25 PM
What the hell is this "kulturkampf" shit from the Department of Labor? Don't they have actual jobs to do?
I always find it interesting that Nate Silver headlines and promotes his reports with the first image (which makes it appear like Trump’s popularity is narrow, close-run thing) when the actual trend data is the second image.
November 29, 2025 at 5:24 AM
I always find it interesting that Nate Silver headlines and promotes his reports with the first image (which makes it appear like Trump’s popularity is narrow, close-run thing) when the actual trend data is the second image.