...default to using mortality rates. Life is better with rates, and the approach scales beautifully with multistate models, where you can simply multiply the transition rate matrix (Q) with the survey intervals (tau) and matrix exponentiate it to get the probability matrix, P = exp(Q * tau). 2/2

By default, mark-recapture models parameterise the survival process with survival probabilities. This is unfortunate, because logit-linear survival functions aren't time invariant, and you can't just exponentiate multistate transition probabilities like you can survival. Instead, we should... 1/2

We just updated our HMM blog by applying the backward sampling algorithm to recover the posterior distributions of latent states. Check it out!

quantecol.com.au/blog/hmm-in-...

Quantecol is on Bluesky! We are a statistical consultancy specialised in (but not limited to) quantitative ecology. We also blog about ecological statistics, with our latest post being about fitting various ecological models in Stan. quantecol.com.au/blog/margina...