Prof. Stefan Rahmstorf
@rahmstorf.bsky.social
Climate scientist, professor of Physics of the Oceans in Potsdam. Opinions my own.
Hey Murdoch fake-news media! The study you report on here
1. Predicts nothing but is about the past.
2. Is not about Gulf Stream but #AMOC.
3. An AMOC collapse wouldn’t cause an Ice Age.
Incompetence or intent to confuse?
The study by Ren et al shows AMOC has weakened: www.nature.com/articles/s43...
1. Predicts nothing but is about the past.
2. Is not about Gulf Stream but #AMOC.
3. An AMOC collapse wouldn’t cause an Ice Age.
Incompetence or intent to confuse?
The study by Ren et al shows AMOC has weakened: www.nature.com/articles/s43...
November 18, 2025 at 1:06 PM
Hey Murdoch fake-news media! The study you report on here
1. Predicts nothing but is about the past.
2. Is not about Gulf Stream but #AMOC.
3. An AMOC collapse wouldn’t cause an Ice Age.
Incompetence or intent to confuse?
The study by Ren et al shows AMOC has weakened: www.nature.com/articles/s43...
1. Predicts nothing but is about the past.
2. Is not about Gulf Stream but #AMOC.
3. An AMOC collapse wouldn’t cause an Ice Age.
Incompetence or intent to confuse?
The study by Ren et al shows AMOC has weakened: www.nature.com/articles/s43...
A little reminder of science history: air temperature change after a shutdown of the Atlantic overturning circulation #AMOC, as simulated in climate models 36 years apart.
Suki Manabe went on to win the physics Nobel prize in 2021 jointly with his colleagues Klaus Hasselmann and Giorgio Parisi.
Suki Manabe went on to win the physics Nobel prize in 2021 jointly with his colleagues Klaus Hasselmann and Giorgio Parisi.
November 17, 2025 at 7:11 PM
A little reminder of science history: air temperature change after a shutdown of the Atlantic overturning circulation #AMOC, as simulated in climate models 36 years apart.
Suki Manabe went on to win the physics Nobel prize in 2021 jointly with his colleagues Klaus Hasselmann and Giorgio Parisi.
Suki Manabe went on to win the physics Nobel prize in 2021 jointly with his colleagues Klaus Hasselmann and Giorgio Parisi.
The government of Iceland now considers this a national security threat. www.arctictoday.com/iceland-sees...
And the Foreign Intelligence Service of Germany together with other German institutions published a National Climate Risk Assessment this year.
Here is what it says about #AMOC tipping risk.
And the Foreign Intelligence Service of Germany together with other German institutions published a National Climate Risk Assessment this year.
Here is what it says about #AMOC tipping risk.
November 16, 2025 at 3:58 PM
The government of Iceland now considers this a national security threat. www.arctictoday.com/iceland-sees...
And the Foreign Intelligence Service of Germany together with other German institutions published a National Climate Risk Assessment this year.
Here is what it says about #AMOC tipping risk.
And the Foreign Intelligence Service of Germany together with other German institutions published a National Climate Risk Assessment this year.
Here is what it says about #AMOC tipping risk.
In 2024, renewable energy accounted for over 90% of global power capacity expansion. That is because it makes economic sense. IRENA_DAT_RE_Capacity_Highlights_2025-1.pdf
November 16, 2025 at 11:22 AM
In 2024, renewable energy accounted for over 90% of global power capacity expansion. That is because it makes economic sense. IRENA_DAT_RE_Capacity_Highlights_2025-1.pdf
All nations committed under the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to 1.5 degC for good reason. Instead many governments are beholden to the fossil fuel lobby and even subsidize fossil fuel use with your money. We’re now at 1.4 degC & emissions are rising not falling.
unfccc.int/process-and-...
unfccc.int/process-and-...
November 15, 2025 at 4:09 PM
All nations committed under the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to 1.5 degC for good reason. Instead many governments are beholden to the fossil fuel lobby and even subsidize fossil fuel use with your money. We’re now at 1.4 degC & emissions are rising not falling.
unfccc.int/process-and-...
unfccc.int/process-and-...
We have reached 1.4 degrees celsius #globalheating according to NASA data (smooth black trend line). Breaching 1.5 is now inevitable. From now on the fight is to keep overshoot as small and short as possible.
November 15, 2025 at 1:41 PM
We have reached 1.4 degrees celsius #globalheating according to NASA data (smooth black trend line). Breaching 1.5 is now inevitable. From now on the fight is to keep overshoot as small and short as possible.
30 years COP - do your job!
November 14, 2025 at 4:57 PM
30 years COP - do your job!
Ist jeder Mensch in der Bundesregierung sich dieser immensen Verantwortung bewusst? Frage für meine Kinder.
November 14, 2025 at 2:16 PM
Ist jeder Mensch in der Bundesregierung sich dieser immensen Verantwortung bewusst? Frage für meine Kinder.
In Sonntagsreden angeblich hinter dem Pariser Klimaabkommen stehen, aber in den Taten die Abrissbirne am Klimaschutz ansetzen?
Heute könnt ihr zeigen, was ihr davon haltet, in Berlin und vielen weiteren Orten. Die Mehrheit der Menschen will mehr Klimaschutz!
table.media/berlin/news/...
Heute könnt ihr zeigen, was ihr davon haltet, in Berlin und vielen weiteren Orten. Die Mehrheit der Menschen will mehr Klimaschutz!
table.media/berlin/news/...
November 14, 2025 at 8:26 AM
In Sonntagsreden angeblich hinter dem Pariser Klimaabkommen stehen, aber in den Taten die Abrissbirne am Klimaschutz ansetzen?
Heute könnt ihr zeigen, was ihr davon haltet, in Berlin und vielen weiteren Orten. Die Mehrheit der Menschen will mehr Klimaschutz!
table.media/berlin/news/...
Heute könnt ihr zeigen, was ihr davon haltet, in Berlin und vielen weiteren Orten. Die Mehrheit der Menschen will mehr Klimaschutz!
table.media/berlin/news/...
Never forget: At breakneck speed we are leaving the stable Holocene climate in which human society developed and thrived. Weather extremes are outside historical experience. Sea-level rise is accelerating. Dangerous tipping points are ahead.
Graph: ed-hawkins.github.io/climate-visu...
Graph: ed-hawkins.github.io/climate-visu...
November 13, 2025 at 11:52 AM
Never forget: At breakneck speed we are leaving the stable Holocene climate in which human society developed and thrived. Weather extremes are outside historical experience. Sea-level rise is accelerating. Dangerous tipping points are ahead.
Graph: ed-hawkins.github.io/climate-visu...
Graph: ed-hawkins.github.io/climate-visu...
Am Freitag könnt ihr die vielen Menschen unterstützen, die sich derzeit beim Klimagipfel #COP30 in Belém für unsere Zukunft einsetzen - und auch ein Signal an die Bundesregierung senden. Jede Verzögerung von Klimaschutz kostet viel Geld, Glaubwürdigkeit, Menschenleben, Zukunft.
November 10, 2025 at 11:10 PM
Am Freitag könnt ihr die vielen Menschen unterstützen, die sich derzeit beim Klimagipfel #COP30 in Belém für unsere Zukunft einsetzen - und auch ein Signal an die Bundesregierung senden. Jede Verzögerung von Klimaschutz kostet viel Geld, Glaubwürdigkeit, Menschenleben, Zukunft.
Today the 2025 State of the Cryosphere report was published by over 50 leading cryosphere scientists.
An urgent warning about the global consequences of the meltdown of ice, including the risk of shutdown of the Atlantic Ocean current system #AMOC. 🌊
iccinet.org/statecryo25/
An urgent warning about the global consequences of the meltdown of ice, including the risk of shutdown of the Atlantic Ocean current system #AMOC. 🌊
iccinet.org/statecryo25/
November 6, 2025 at 10:43 PM
Today the 2025 State of the Cryosphere report was published by over 50 leading cryosphere scientists.
An urgent warning about the global consequences of the meltdown of ice, including the risk of shutdown of the Atlantic Ocean current system #AMOC. 🌊
iccinet.org/statecryo25/
An urgent warning about the global consequences of the meltdown of ice, including the risk of shutdown of the Atlantic Ocean current system #AMOC. 🌊
iccinet.org/statecryo25/
New study in Nature by Lin et al shows how the sea-level rise from the melting Ice Age ice (a total of 120 meters rise) ended thousands of years ago.
Until our fossil fuel use started a new phase of rising seas.
Graph shows the global mean rate of sea level rise.
🌊
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Until our fossil fuel use started a new phase of rising seas.
Graph shows the global mean rate of sea level rise.
🌊
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
November 3, 2025 at 12:09 PM
New study in Nature by Lin et al shows how the sea-level rise from the melting Ice Age ice (a total of 120 meters rise) ended thousands of years ago.
Until our fossil fuel use started a new phase of rising seas.
Graph shows the global mean rate of sea level rise.
🌊
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Until our fossil fuel use started a new phase of rising seas.
Graph shows the global mean rate of sea level rise.
🌊
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Extended hurricane category scale, following Wehner&Kossin, Proceedings of the National Academy 2024: www.pnas.org/doi/abs/10.1...
If that scale didn't stop at Category 5 for historic reasons, we would have had several Category 6 tropical cyclones since year 2000.
If that scale didn't stop at Category 5 for historic reasons, we would have had several Category 6 tropical cyclones since year 2000.
November 2, 2025 at 4:56 PM
Extended hurricane category scale, following Wehner&Kossin, Proceedings of the National Academy 2024: www.pnas.org/doi/abs/10.1...
If that scale didn't stop at Category 5 for historic reasons, we would have had several Category 6 tropical cyclones since year 2000.
If that scale didn't stop at Category 5 for historic reasons, we would have had several Category 6 tropical cyclones since year 2000.
One striking result is that the dangers of the dramatic decline in natural ecosystems and biodiversity (in oceans and on land) are not widely recognised by the general public, and I would say are still underestimated by the experts. We all ultimately depend on a functioning biosphere.
October 31, 2025 at 9:57 AM
One striking result is that the dangers of the dramatic decline in natural ecosystems and biodiversity (in oceans and on land) are not widely recognised by the general public, and I would say are still underestimated by the experts. We all ultimately depend on a functioning biosphere.
AXA and Ipsos have published the 12th edition of the Future Risks Report, a report based on a global survey of 23,000 citizens and 3,595 risk experts.
What do both experts and citizens rank as greates risk?
*** Climate change ***
So do I, after over 35 years experience in climate science.
What do both experts and citizens rank as greates risk?
*** Climate change ***
So do I, after over 35 years experience in climate science.
October 31, 2025 at 9:41 AM
AXA and Ipsos have published the 12th edition of the Future Risks Report, a report based on a global survey of 23,000 citizens and 3,595 risk experts.
What do both experts and citizens rank as greates risk?
*** Climate change ***
So do I, after over 35 years experience in climate science.
What do both experts and citizens rank as greates risk?
*** Climate change ***
So do I, after over 35 years experience in climate science.
I could not resist to query further. First it invents a doi link, claiming that one is correct. Then it claims it actually meant the 2018 IPCC report - mind you, my original query was whether ChatGPT can point me to literature criticising a study published in 2021. It could have answered: Sorry, no.
October 30, 2025 at 3:08 PM
I could not resist to query further. First it invents a doi link, claiming that one is correct. Then it claims it actually meant the 2018 IPCC report - mind you, my original query was whether ChatGPT can point me to literature criticising a study published in 2021. It could have answered: Sorry, no.
ChatGPT cited a paper of mine which I did not know existed, so I asked it for the link to it.
Unfortunately that link to the Nature website just gave a "Page not found".
So sad.
Unfortunately that link to the Nature website just gave a "Page not found".
So sad.
October 30, 2025 at 11:11 AM
ChatGPT cited a paper of mine which I did not know existed, so I asked it for the link to it.
Unfortunately that link to the Nature website just gave a "Page not found".
So sad.
Unfortunately that link to the Nature website just gave a "Page not found".
So sad.
Here’s a reminder how closely the sea-surface temperature response to an #AMOC slowing matches what is actually observed in the past decades in the Atlantic.
More on that here: www.realclimate.org/index.php/ar...
More on that here: www.realclimate.org/index.php/ar...
October 23, 2025 at 9:23 PM
Here’s a reminder how closely the sea-surface temperature response to an #AMOC slowing matches what is actually observed in the past decades in the Atlantic.
More on that here: www.realclimate.org/index.php/ar...
More on that here: www.realclimate.org/index.php/ar...
New study by Falkena et al. shows that most climate models
don’t capture the established key mechanism that can destabilize the North Atlantic subpolar gyre. Those models that get it predict abrupt subpolar gyre changes in coming decades 😳.
@swinda.bsky.social
esd.copernicus.org/articles/16/...
don’t capture the established key mechanism that can destabilize the North Atlantic subpolar gyre. Those models that get it predict abrupt subpolar gyre changes in coming decades 😳.
@swinda.bsky.social
esd.copernicus.org/articles/16/...
October 23, 2025 at 10:28 AM
New study by Falkena et al. shows that most climate models
don’t capture the established key mechanism that can destabilize the North Atlantic subpolar gyre. Those models that get it predict abrupt subpolar gyre changes in coming decades 😳.
@swinda.bsky.social
esd.copernicus.org/articles/16/...
don’t capture the established key mechanism that can destabilize the North Atlantic subpolar gyre. Those models that get it predict abrupt subpolar gyre changes in coming decades 😳.
@swinda.bsky.social
esd.copernicus.org/articles/16/...
The floating French Tara Polar Research Station in Reykjavik harbor.
October 17, 2025 at 8:30 PM
The floating French Tara Polar Research Station in Reykjavik harbor.
Obama‘s former science advisor John Holdren speaking right now on the threats to the future of science through demagoguery, misinformation and autocratic leaders. #ArcticCircle
October 17, 2025 at 2:29 PM
Obama‘s former science advisor John Holdren speaking right now on the threats to the future of science through demagoguery, misinformation and autocratic leaders. #ArcticCircle
„This is a national security issue!“ says Dame Angela McLean, the UK Government Chief Scientific Adviser, about the collapse risk of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre.
Interesting discussion on Forecasting Arctic Tipping Points - Building an Early Warning System for Everyone, at #ArcticCircle.
Interesting discussion on Forecasting Arctic Tipping Points - Building an Early Warning System for Everyone, at #ArcticCircle.
October 17, 2025 at 9:20 AM
„This is a national security issue!“ says Dame Angela McLean, the UK Government Chief Scientific Adviser, about the collapse risk of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre.
Interesting discussion on Forecasting Arctic Tipping Points - Building an Early Warning System for Everyone, at #ArcticCircle.
Interesting discussion on Forecasting Arctic Tipping Points - Building an Early Warning System for Everyone, at #ArcticCircle.