Rob Wiblin
@robertwiblin.bsky.social
Exploring the inviolate sphere of ideas one interview at a time: http://80000hours.org/podcast/
Trump seems hell-bent on shattering US alliances and abandoning American global hegemony.
Professor Emeritus Hugh White has predicted this retreat for 30 years.
And despite calling the US-led order a 'golden age' he argues it's probably a good thing.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=m0WO...
Professor Emeritus Hugh White has predicted this retreat for 30 years.
And despite calling the US-led order a 'golden age' he argues it's probably a good thing.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=m0WO...
The Graph That Explains Most of Geopolitics Today | Professor Hugh White
YouTube video by 80,000 Hours
www.youtube.com
June 13, 2025 at 12:58 PM
Trump seems hell-bent on shattering US alliances and abandoning American global hegemony.
Professor Emeritus Hugh White has predicted this retreat for 30 years.
And despite calling the US-led order a 'golden age' he argues it's probably a good thing.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=m0WO...
Professor Emeritus Hugh White has predicted this retreat for 30 years.
And despite calling the US-led order a 'golden age' he argues it's probably a good thing.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=m0WO...
AI models currently have a 50% chance of doing something that takes a human expert one hour.
This doubles every 7 months.
In 2 years? They could automate full workdays. In 4 years? A full month.
I discuss with Beth Barnes who uncovered this rule of AI progress:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=jXtk...
This doubles every 7 months.
In 2 years? They could automate full workdays. In 4 years? A full month.
I discuss with Beth Barnes who uncovered this rule of AI progress:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=jXtk...
The most important graph in AI right now | Beth Barnes, CEO of METR
YouTube video by 80,000 Hours
www.youtube.com
June 2, 2025 at 5:31 PM
AI models currently have a 50% chance of doing something that takes a human expert one hour.
This doubles every 7 months.
In 2 years? They could automate full workdays. In 4 years? A full month.
I discuss with Beth Barnes who uncovered this rule of AI progress:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=jXtk...
This doubles every 7 months.
In 2 years? They could automate full workdays. In 4 years? A full month.
I discuss with Beth Barnes who uncovered this rule of AI progress:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=jXtk...
Reposted by Rob Wiblin
If you want to understand why British governments are so chaotic, be they Labour or Conservative, it's worth at least mentioning the fact that we run this country in a fundamentally irrational way.
"10 Downing Street works on a system of professionalised loitering ...
People just kind of hang around thinking 'How do I get the most facetime with the prime minister — and how do I act as a barricade to stop other people...'" — @iandunt.bsky.social
Full episode here: youtu.be/1Yfo1aS0O6s
People just kind of hang around thinking 'How do I get the most facetime with the prime minister — and how do I act as a barricade to stop other people...'" — @iandunt.bsky.social
Full episode here: youtu.be/1Yfo1aS0O6s
May 9, 2025 at 9:31 AM
If you want to understand why British governments are so chaotic, be they Labour or Conservative, it's worth at least mentioning the fact that we run this country in a fundamentally irrational way.
Reposted by Rob Wiblin
This is a great interview (actually something more than an interview). I have read Ian's book a couple of times, but it came alive with such intelligent interrogation. Your engagement is remarkable, Rob, and it was evident that Ian appreciated it.
May 6, 2025 at 5:23 PM
This is a great interview (actually something more than an interview). I have read Ian's book a couple of times, but it came alive with such intelligent interrogation. Your engagement is remarkable, Rob, and it was evident that Ian appreciated it.
"There is no democratic element to the House of Lords and it is by far the most effective part of British system.
This is not a popular view, as you can imagine.
But you have to go on the evidence in front of your eyes." –
@iandunt.bsky.social
More: bsky.app/profile/robe...
This is not a popular view, as you can imagine.
But you have to go on the evidence in front of your eyes." –
@iandunt.bsky.social
More: bsky.app/profile/robe...
May 3, 2025 at 9:18 AM
"There is no democratic element to the House of Lords and it is by far the most effective part of British system.
This is not a popular view, as you can imagine.
But you have to go on the evidence in front of your eyes." –
@iandunt.bsky.social
More: bsky.app/profile/robe...
This is not a popular view, as you can imagine.
But you have to go on the evidence in front of your eyes." –
@iandunt.bsky.social
More: bsky.app/profile/robe...
"…in the final hours when people's lives could have been saved… the team ended up reformatting a table on Microsoft Word for Dominic Raab to look at while people were being left to the mercy of the Taliban." — @iandunt.bsky.social
From How British Government Got So Amateurish: youtu.be/1Yfo1aS0O6s
From How British Government Got So Amateurish: youtu.be/1Yfo1aS0O6s
May 3, 2025 at 9:12 AM
"…in the final hours when people's lives could have been saved… the team ended up reformatting a table on Microsoft Word for Dominic Raab to look at while people were being left to the mercy of the Taliban." — @iandunt.bsky.social
From How British Government Got So Amateurish: youtu.be/1Yfo1aS0O6s
From How British Government Got So Amateurish: youtu.be/1Yfo1aS0O6s
"10 Downing Street works on a system of professionalised loitering ...
People just kind of hang around thinking 'How do I get the most facetime with the prime minister — and how do I act as a barricade to stop other people...'" — @iandunt.bsky.social
Full episode here: youtu.be/1Yfo1aS0O6s
People just kind of hang around thinking 'How do I get the most facetime with the prime minister — and how do I act as a barricade to stop other people...'" — @iandunt.bsky.social
Full episode here: youtu.be/1Yfo1aS0O6s
May 3, 2025 at 8:58 AM
"10 Downing Street works on a system of professionalised loitering ...
People just kind of hang around thinking 'How do I get the most facetime with the prime minister — and how do I act as a barricade to stop other people...'" — @iandunt.bsky.social
Full episode here: youtu.be/1Yfo1aS0O6s
People just kind of hang around thinking 'How do I get the most facetime with the prime minister — and how do I act as a barricade to stop other people...'" — @iandunt.bsky.social
Full episode here: youtu.be/1Yfo1aS0O6s
Reposted by Rob Wiblin
This was great fun and very, very, very thorough
My interview with @iandunt.bsky.social on how the UK government got to be so bad.
It's not individuals but bad incentives and bad systems that make effective governance impossible.
We run through the UK's many institutional absurdities and how to fix them.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Yfo...
It's not individuals but bad incentives and bad systems that make effective governance impossible.
We run through the UK's many institutional absurdities and how to fix them.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Yfo...
Why Governments Can’t Get Anything Done and How We Can Fix It | Ian Dunt
YouTube video by 80,000 Hours
www.youtube.com
May 2, 2025 at 4:41 PM
This was great fun and very, very, very thorough
My interview with @iandunt.bsky.social on how the UK government got to be so bad.
It's not individuals but bad incentives and bad systems that make effective governance impossible.
We run through the UK's many institutional absurdities and how to fix them.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Yfo...
It's not individuals but bad incentives and bad systems that make effective governance impossible.
We run through the UK's many institutional absurdities and how to fix them.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Yfo...
Why Governments Can’t Get Anything Done and How We Can Fix It | Ian Dunt
YouTube video by 80,000 Hours
www.youtube.com
May 2, 2025 at 4:25 PM
My interview with @iandunt.bsky.social on how the UK government got to be so bad.
It's not individuals but bad incentives and bad systems that make effective governance impossible.
We run through the UK's many institutional absurdities and how to fix them.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Yfo...
It's not individuals but bad incentives and bad systems that make effective governance impossible.
We run through the UK's many institutional absurdities and how to fix them.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Yfo...
If you can remember Musk spent years actually trying to prevent climate change.
Is preventing climate change now bad and suspect by association?
Or has Musk perhaps changed over time. (Or maybe has a combination of good and bad views.)
Is preventing climate change now bad and suspect by association?
Or has Musk perhaps changed over time. (Or maybe has a combination of good and bad views.)
i think "an effective altruist is personally denying twenty million people their HIV medications despite a court order telling him to send the money" is a pretty good summary of effective altruism as a real world philosophy
February 26, 2025 at 12:33 AM
If you can remember Musk spent years actually trying to prevent climate change.
Is preventing climate change now bad and suspect by association?
Or has Musk perhaps changed over time. (Or maybe has a combination of good and bad views.)
Is preventing climate change now bad and suspect by association?
Or has Musk perhaps changed over time. (Or maybe has a combination of good and bad views.)
Reposted by Rob Wiblin
On the one hand 10,000 of us are screaming that this is horrific and against everything we've been working for.
On the other hand this guy who took some EA themed courses at college is in favour of it.
So it's hard to tell where EA stands on the topic overall.
On the other hand this guy who took some EA themed courses at college is in favour of it.
So it's hard to tell where EA stands on the topic overall.
February 25, 2025 at 11:45 PM
On the one hand 10,000 of us are screaming that this is horrific and against everything we've been working for.
On the other hand this guy who took some EA themed courses at college is in favour of it.
So it's hard to tell where EA stands on the topic overall.
On the other hand this guy who took some EA themed courses at college is in favour of it.
So it's hard to tell where EA stands on the topic overall.
Reposted by Rob Wiblin
Anthropic states that the next Claude model has "a substantial probability" of meeting ASL-3 👀
Recall that ASL-3 means AI models that substantially increase catastrophic misuse risk of AI. ASL-3 requires stronger safeguards: robust misuse prevention and enhanced security.
Recall that ASL-3 means AI models that substantially increase catastrophic misuse risk of AI. ASL-3 requires stronger safeguards: robust misuse prevention and enhanced security.
February 25, 2025 at 4:00 PM
Anthropic states that the next Claude model has "a substantial probability" of meeting ASL-3 👀
Recall that ASL-3 means AI models that substantially increase catastrophic misuse risk of AI. ASL-3 requires stronger safeguards: robust misuse prevention and enhanced security.
Recall that ASL-3 means AI models that substantially increase catastrophic misuse risk of AI. ASL-3 requires stronger safeguards: robust misuse prevention and enhanced security.
Reposted by Rob Wiblin
This is a crazy paper. Fine-tuning a big GPT-4o on a small amount of insecure code or even "bad numbers" (like 666) makes them misaligned in almost everything else. They are more likely to start offering misinformation, spouting anti-human values, and talk about admiring dictators. Why is unclear.
February 25, 2025 at 9:01 PM
This is a crazy paper. Fine-tuning a big GPT-4o on a small amount of insecure code or even "bad numbers" (like 666) makes them misaligned in almost everything else. They are more likely to start offering misinformation, spouting anti-human values, and talk about admiring dictators. Why is unclear.
Actual EA is vocal and united in its condemnation of these actions,which are the literal opposite of what we've been working to accomplish in our global health and wellbeing work.
I'm not aware of Musk having engaged in any EA giving which speaks for itself given his wealth.
I'm not aware of Musk having engaged in any EA giving which speaks for itself given his wealth.
i think "an effective altruist is personally denying twenty million people their HIV medications despite a court order telling him to send the money" is a pretty good summary of effective altruism as a real world philosophy
February 25, 2025 at 11:18 PM
Actual EA is vocal and united in its condemnation of these actions,which are the literal opposite of what we've been working to accomplish in our global health and wellbeing work.
I'm not aware of Musk having engaged in any EA giving which speaks for itself given his wealth.
I'm not aware of Musk having engaged in any EA giving which speaks for itself given his wealth.
When you don't run your article through an LLM to check for completely clear factual inaccuracies.
February 25, 2025 at 7:47 PM
When you don't run your article through an LLM to check for completely clear factual inaccuracies.
Reposted by Rob Wiblin
This is a frequently missed issue in the discussion about fertility rates.
The most commonly cited statistic is based on how many children are born in an individual year.
That can understate completed fertility rates in periods when women have children later.
The most commonly cited statistic is based on how many children are born in an individual year.
That can understate completed fertility rates in periods when women have children later.
New article by me!
It's a common mistake to think the TFR is a prediction of the average number of children women will have over their lifetimes.
But it's not. The TFR can decline even when the eventual number of children per woman stays constant or even increases; the opposite can happen too. 🧵
It's a common mistake to think the TFR is a prediction of the average number of children women will have over their lifetimes.
But it's not. The TFR can decline even when the eventual number of children per woman stays constant or even increases; the opposite can happen too. 🧵
February 24, 2025 at 11:25 AM
This is a frequently missed issue in the discussion about fertility rates.
The most commonly cited statistic is based on how many children are born in an individual year.
That can understate completed fertility rates in periods when women have children later.
The most commonly cited statistic is based on how many children are born in an individual year.
That can understate completed fertility rates in periods when women have children later.
Reposted by Rob Wiblin
Good thing we recently withdrew from the WTO and killed USAID's international public health programs www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/0...
‘Unknown disease’ that can kill within days leaves 53 dead in Congo
World Health Organization officials said the outbreak appeared to originate from a village where three children died after reportedly eating a bat carcass.
www.washingtonpost.com
February 25, 2025 at 6:34 PM
Good thing we recently withdrew from the WTO and killed USAID's international public health programs www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/0...
What is with the people who insist "no the AI isn't 'thinking', no AI can think".
Are they conflating thinking with subjective experience?
Do they think the human brain is doing some magic other than information processing?
Honestly just have no idea WTF they're on about.
Are they conflating thinking with subjective experience?
Do they think the human brain is doing some magic other than information processing?
Honestly just have no idea WTF they're on about.
February 24, 2025 at 11:09 PM
What is with the people who insist "no the AI isn't 'thinking', no AI can think".
Are they conflating thinking with subjective experience?
Do they think the human brain is doing some magic other than information processing?
Honestly just have no idea WTF they're on about.
Are they conflating thinking with subjective experience?
Do they think the human brain is doing some magic other than information processing?
Honestly just have no idea WTF they're on about.
Reposted by Rob Wiblin
NEW: updated long-run gap in voting between young men and women in Germany:
Gender divide continues to widen, but contrary to what is often assumed, young men continue to vote roughly in line with the overall population, while young women have swung sharply left.
www.ft.com/content/29fd...
Gender divide continues to widen, but contrary to what is often assumed, young men continue to vote roughly in line with the overall population, while young women have swung sharply left.
www.ft.com/content/29fd...
February 24, 2025 at 9:16 AM
NEW: updated long-run gap in voting between young men and women in Germany:
Gender divide continues to widen, but contrary to what is often assumed, young men continue to vote roughly in line with the overall population, while young women have swung sharply left.
www.ft.com/content/29fd...
Gender divide continues to widen, but contrary to what is often assumed, young men continue to vote roughly in line with the overall population, while young women have swung sharply left.
www.ft.com/content/29fd...
Reposted by Rob Wiblin
The youth gender divide is real and important, but it can mask the fact that the populist right is gaining ground among young women as well as young men in many countries (this was also true in the US).
AfD tripled their vote share among 18-24 year old men, but the same was true of young women.
AfD tripled their vote share among 18-24 year old men, but the same was true of young women.
February 24, 2025 at 3:48 PM
The youth gender divide is real and important, but it can mask the fact that the populist right is gaining ground among young women as well as young men in many countries (this was also true in the US).
AfD tripled their vote share among 18-24 year old men, but the same was true of young women.
AfD tripled their vote share among 18-24 year old men, but the same was true of young women.
Reposted by Rob Wiblin
JUST IN:
The UN has adopted Ukraine’s resolution condemning Russian aggression and demanding the immediate withdrawal of Putin’s forces, marking the war’s third anniversary.
The U.S. joined Russia, North Korea, Belarus, and Hungary in opposing the resolution.
The UN has adopted Ukraine’s resolution condemning Russian aggression and demanding the immediate withdrawal of Putin’s forces, marking the war’s third anniversary.
The U.S. joined Russia, North Korea, Belarus, and Hungary in opposing the resolution.
February 24, 2025 at 5:04 PM
JUST IN:
The UN has adopted Ukraine’s resolution condemning Russian aggression and demanding the immediate withdrawal of Putin’s forces, marking the war’s third anniversary.
The U.S. joined Russia, North Korea, Belarus, and Hungary in opposing the resolution.
The UN has adopted Ukraine’s resolution condemning Russian aggression and demanding the immediate withdrawal of Putin’s forces, marking the war’s third anniversary.
The U.S. joined Russia, North Korea, Belarus, and Hungary in opposing the resolution.
Reposted by Rob Wiblin
"Donald Trump has embarked upon a very different global mission. The US president is making the world safe for autocracy." - terrific column by @gideonrachman.bsky.social:
Trump wants a world safe for autocracy
Europe will have to defend liberal democracy without American support
www.ft.com
February 24, 2025 at 5:01 PM
"Donald Trump has embarked upon a very different global mission. The US president is making the world safe for autocracy." - terrific column by @gideonrachman.bsky.social:
Reposted by Rob Wiblin
Been using Claude 3.7 for a couple days and it is very, very good.
Its "vibe coding" from language is impressive. I wrote a whole Substack post about the model (& Grok 3).
Here's a one-shot prompted game based on the Melville story “Bartleby the Scrivener” www.oneusefulthing.org/p/a-new-gene...
Its "vibe coding" from language is impressive. I wrote a whole Substack post about the model (& Grok 3).
Here's a one-shot prompted game based on the Melville story “Bartleby the Scrivener” www.oneusefulthing.org/p/a-new-gene...
February 24, 2025 at 6:51 PM
Been using Claude 3.7 for a couple days and it is very, very good.
Its "vibe coding" from language is impressive. I wrote a whole Substack post about the model (& Grok 3).
Here's a one-shot prompted game based on the Melville story “Bartleby the Scrivener” www.oneusefulthing.org/p/a-new-gene...
Its "vibe coding" from language is impressive. I wrote a whole Substack post about the model (& Grok 3).
Here's a one-shot prompted game based on the Melville story “Bartleby the Scrivener” www.oneusefulthing.org/p/a-new-gene...
Reposted by Rob Wiblin
A tracker estimating deaths caused by the partial PEPFAR funding suspension: pepfar.impactcounter.com. Methodology here: pepfar.impactcounter.com/methodology.
February 23, 2025 at 5:09 PM
A tracker estimating deaths caused by the partial PEPFAR funding suspension: pepfar.impactcounter.com. Methodology here: pepfar.impactcounter.com/methodology.
Reposted by Rob Wiblin
Cool new reporting from @aylinwoodward.bsky.social on the ancient history of lead pollution - Roman silver smelting produced enough lead to lower population IQ by 3 points, potentially contributing to its decline. Hopefully we can eradicate the problem of lead exposure this century!
February 21, 2025 at 12:22 AM
Cool new reporting from @aylinwoodward.bsky.social on the ancient history of lead pollution - Roman silver smelting produced enough lead to lower population IQ by 3 points, potentially contributing to its decline. Hopefully we can eradicate the problem of lead exposure this century!