Rob Fahey
@robfahey.net
CTO at VETA (https://veta.co.jp), where we’re building data science tools to tackle social issues. Recovering academic (formerly at Waseda). Occasional journalist. 🇮🇪/🏳️🌈/He/Him
(It’s the same performative act they’re doing with tourism - they don’t want to harm revenues but they know citizens are getting fed up of negative externalities, so they’ll poke and prod haphazardly at various bits of policy until they actually manage to break something.)
November 29, 2025 at 8:50 AM
(It’s the same performative act they’re doing with tourism - they don’t want to harm revenues but they know citizens are getting fed up of negative externalities, so they’ll poke and prod haphazardly at various bits of policy until they actually manage to break something.)
It’s nothing as strategic as a smokescreen; they’re pushing buttons and pulling levers in an attempt to square an impossible circle in domestic public opinion, and as is often the case with migration policy, struggle to understand that migrants themselves also have agency and follow the news.
November 29, 2025 at 8:46 AM
It’s nothing as strategic as a smokescreen; they’re pushing buttons and pulling levers in an attempt to square an impossible circle in domestic public opinion, and as is often the case with migration policy, struggle to understand that migrants themselves also have agency and follow the news.
Right, there’s still very clearly an understanding at high levels of government that they need foreign labour to keep the country afloat - so you end up with an incoherent mess of positioning that’s designed to appease diametrically opposed constituencies.
November 29, 2025 at 8:46 AM
Right, there’s still very clearly an understanding at high levels of government that they need foreign labour to keep the country afloat - so you end up with an incoherent mess of positioning that’s designed to appease diametrically opposed constituencies.
The same factors allowing that sector to put heavy downward pressure on pay and conditions in recent years will also allow them to shrug and say “not my problem” over visa fees. (Japan losing interest in English language education was arguably an early warning sign for the anti-globalist turn…)
November 29, 2025 at 7:40 AM
The same factors allowing that sector to put heavy downward pressure on pay and conditions in recent years will also allow them to shrug and say “not my problem” over visa fees. (Japan losing interest in English language education was arguably an early warning sign for the anti-globalist turn…)
It will absolutely suck for ALTs as individuals, but thinking of the employer perspective (since they actually have the voice to make the government reconsider these proposals), unfortunately I don’t think ALT dispatch companies etc. have much clout… or will be particularly troubled.
November 29, 2025 at 7:40 AM
It will absolutely suck for ALTs as individuals, but thinking of the employer perspective (since they actually have the voice to make the government reconsider these proposals), unfortunately I don’t think ALT dispatch companies etc. have much clout… or will be particularly troubled.
Oh 100% - the popularity of the Leopards Eating People’s Faces Party is a global phenomenon, and there’s no doubt a serious level of “but I’m one of the good ones!” thinking going on within some of those groups too. Even so, I think hiring for skilled jobs is about to get a lot harder here…
November 29, 2025 at 4:20 AM
Oh 100% - the popularity of the Leopards Eating People’s Faces Party is a global phenomenon, and there’s no doubt a serious level of “but I’m one of the good ones!” thinking going on within some of those groups too. Even so, I think hiring for skilled jobs is about to get a lot harder here…
I’d draw a significant distinction here between the “expats” (here on transfers etc.) and the much larger population of regular immigrants working in high-skilled and reasonably well paid positions across sectors like software, engineering etc. - the large majority of whom are not white westerners.
November 29, 2025 at 3:54 AM
I’d draw a significant distinction here between the “expats” (here on transfers etc.) and the much larger population of regular immigrants working in high-skilled and reasonably well paid positions across sectors like software, engineering etc. - the large majority of whom are not white westerners.
By the time of his assassination there were already dissenting voices on the far-right accusing him of hoodwinking conservatives by paying lip-service to them while pursuing a globalist policy agenda. His death stemmed that talk, but it could have been the start of a pretty serious schism.
November 29, 2025 at 3:20 AM
By the time of his assassination there were already dissenting voices on the far-right accusing him of hoodwinking conservatives by paying lip-service to them while pursuing a globalist policy agenda. His death stemmed that talk, but it could have been the start of a pretty serious schism.
I do wonder how Abe would have coped with the sharply anti-globalist turn on the right that we've seen since COVID. His death makes him easy for the right to canonise, but there's a good chance that they'd have demonised him for his globalist stances instead, had he lived.
November 29, 2025 at 3:17 AM
I do wonder how Abe would have coped with the sharply anti-globalist turn on the right that we've seen since COVID. His death makes him easy for the right to canonise, but there's a good chance that they'd have demonised him for his globalist stances instead, had he lived.
(Not that I disagree that there are going to be a lot of shocked_pikachu_face reactions when employers in the US find international workers are going cold on the idea of moving there; I just think places like Japan will find this stove burns their hand FAR more quickly when they touch it.)
November 29, 2025 at 2:10 AM
(Not that I disagree that there are going to be a lot of shocked_pikachu_face reactions when employers in the US find international workers are going cold on the idea of moving there; I just think places like Japan will find this stove burns their hand FAR more quickly when they touch it.)
America arguably has more leeway on this because salaries in fields like tech are very high by global standards, creating a major pull factor. Japan (and other countries experiencing similar anti-migrant turns, like the UK) have far less runway before the economic damage starts to bite hard.
November 29, 2025 at 2:09 AM
America arguably has more leeway on this because salaries in fields like tech are very high by global standards, creating a major pull factor. Japan (and other countries experiencing similar anti-migrant turns, like the UK) have far less runway before the economic damage starts to bite hard.
I've seen many comments along the lines of "the number of foreigners in Japan suddenly increased after Abe died, MAKES YOU THINK". The way his spirit is invoked in RW discourses is honestly fascinating, and they definitely want to revise the history of his actual immigration policies.
November 29, 2025 at 1:57 AM
I've seen many comments along the lines of "the number of foreigners in Japan suddenly increased after Abe died, MAKES YOU THINK". The way his spirit is invoked in RW discourses is honestly fascinating, and they definitely want to revise the history of his actual immigration policies.
I know many fellow "lifers" who won't be inconvenienced by these changes but worry about the direction of travel. Restricting foreign residents' access to health and social welfare systems, for example, remains a fringe proposal for now - but the slope definitely looks more slippery than it used to.
November 29, 2025 at 1:50 AM
I know many fellow "lifers" who won't be inconvenienced by these changes but worry about the direction of travel. Restricting foreign residents' access to health and social welfare systems, for example, remains a fringe proposal for now - but the slope definitely looks more slippery than it used to.
Consequently, there will probably be some fairly hard pushback from employers / businesses on these and other changes - but with the government themselves fanning the flames on this issue, it may be hard for them to back down from their proposals.
November 29, 2025 at 1:31 AM
Consequently, there will probably be some fairly hard pushback from employers / businesses on these and other changes - but with the government themselves fanning the flames on this issue, it may be hard for them to back down from their proposals.
For all the rhetoric, Japan struggles to attract migrants - salaries are poor and the weak Yen dissuades migrants from the developing world who need to send money home. The relatively open, easy to navigate immigration system was a rare boon to employers trying to access international labour pools.
November 29, 2025 at 1:31 AM
For all the rhetoric, Japan struggles to attract migrants - salaries are poor and the weak Yen dissuades migrants from the developing world who need to send money home. The relatively open, easy to navigate immigration system was a rare boon to employers trying to access international labour pools.
These rises will disproportionately impact lower income migrants. People in fields like tech or finance can afford the fees, and employers may cover the costs for many of them. But this will be a hammer blow for fields like agriculture and construction, which are deeply reliant on migrant workers.
November 29, 2025 at 1:31 AM
These rises will disproportionately impact lower income migrants. People in fields like tech or finance can afford the fees, and employers may cover the costs for many of them. But this will be a hammer blow for fields like agriculture and construction, which are deeply reliant on migrant workers.
There’s a case for bumping fees associated with visas if it funds better staffing etc. at the immigration agency, which is operating wildly beyond capacity in Tokyo in particular. The proposed rises go beyond that and are clearly intended to be punitive and dissuade migrants from coming / staying.
November 29, 2025 at 1:31 AM
There’s a case for bumping fees associated with visas if it funds better staffing etc. at the immigration agency, which is operating wildly beyond capacity in Tokyo in particular. The proposed rises go beyond that and are clearly intended to be punitive and dissuade migrants from coming / staying.
Sadly there is no extra zero - the proposal floated this week is to raise the cost for PR to 300,000円, so ~$1900 is accurate.
November 29, 2025 at 1:10 AM
Sadly there is no extra zero - the proposal floated this week is to raise the cost for PR to 300,000円, so ~$1900 is accurate.
It’s both! Some classic Nihonjinron (“intestines uniquely evolved to digest rice”) kitbashed with national victimhood conspiracy (“foreign powers, knowing about the magical rice-eating intestines, forced the importation of wheat products to weaken Japanese people’s bodies and neuter the nation”).
November 10, 2025 at 11:34 PM
It’s both! Some classic Nihonjinron (“intestines uniquely evolved to digest rice”) kitbashed with national victimhood conspiracy (“foreign powers, knowing about the magical rice-eating intestines, forced the importation of wheat products to weaken Japanese people’s bodies and neuter the nation”).
I propose a meta-review of the field, conducted by phrenological examination of the papers’ authors’ heads. Could their faces reveal why they’re so bad at doing science?
November 6, 2025 at 11:55 PM
I propose a meta-review of the field, conducted by phrenological examination of the papers’ authors’ heads. Could their faces reveal why they’re so bad at doing science?
There’s also no $250bn, but since most AI deals now seem to be pure speculative fiction they may as well get freaky with it; why NOT swap a machine god for imaginary money?
October 28, 2025 at 2:12 PM
There’s also no $250bn, but since most AI deals now seem to be pure speculative fiction they may as well get freaky with it; why NOT swap a machine god for imaginary money?