Sander Tordoir
@sandertordoir.bsky.social
Chief economist @ Centre for European Reform. Eurozone macroeconomic policies | Role of 🇩🇪 🇳🇱 in EU. Formerly @ECB, @IMF, @Worldbank.
Turns out I wasn’t the only one who thought this paper was an excellent x-ray of the UK economy.
It features prominently in Martin Wolfs new FT column
It features prominently in Martin Wolfs new FT column
November 24, 2025 at 5:55 PM
Turns out I wasn’t the only one who thought this paper was an excellent x-ray of the UK economy.
It features prominently in Martin Wolfs new FT column
It features prominently in Martin Wolfs new FT column
The United States is no longer providing any financial support for Ukraine according to Kiel's tracker - and has not been for a few months now (although I do wonder how one counts the intelligence support).
Europe is footing the bill alone.
Europe is footing the bill alone.
November 24, 2025 at 1:01 AM
The United States is no longer providing any financial support for Ukraine according to Kiel's tracker - and has not been for a few months now (although I do wonder how one counts the intelligence support).
Europe is footing the bill alone.
Europe is footing the bill alone.
My hunch is that the trade data cited do not go deep enough to capture the dependencies.
The ECB showed nicely that the eurozone for example imports a lot of REE and REE magnets from US subsidiaries who in turn rely on China.
2/2
The ECB showed nicely that the eurozone for example imports a lot of REE and REE magnets from US subsidiaries who in turn rely on China.
2/2
November 23, 2025 at 5:45 PM
My hunch is that the trade data cited do not go deep enough to capture the dependencies.
The ECB showed nicely that the eurozone for example imports a lot of REE and REE magnets from US subsidiaries who in turn rely on China.
2/2
The ECB showed nicely that the eurozone for example imports a lot of REE and REE magnets from US subsidiaries who in turn rely on China.
2/2
The Economists new cover.
November 20, 2025 at 6:38 PM
The Economists new cover.
Thorsten Benner not mincing his words. Hard hitting piece on China eating Germanys lunch and the woefully inadequate response.
The Scholz-Li Qiang anecdote is stunning.
www.handelsblatt.com/meinung/kolu...
The Scholz-Li Qiang anecdote is stunning.
www.handelsblatt.com/meinung/kolu...
November 20, 2025 at 11:42 AM
Thorsten Benner not mincing his words. Hard hitting piece on China eating Germanys lunch and the woefully inadequate response.
The Scholz-Li Qiang anecdote is stunning.
www.handelsblatt.com/meinung/kolu...
The Scholz-Li Qiang anecdote is stunning.
www.handelsblatt.com/meinung/kolu...
I’ve been saying this on panels recently.
Europes EV tariffs are starting to fail. China is simply switching to exporting hybrids which weren’t under the duty.
I’m not convinced the EU can fully avoid a broader duty on all Chinese cars (EV Hybrid and ICE) - who all get subsidised anyway.
Europes EV tariffs are starting to fail. China is simply switching to exporting hybrids which weren’t under the duty.
I’m not convinced the EU can fully avoid a broader duty on all Chinese cars (EV Hybrid and ICE) - who all get subsidised anyway.
November 20, 2025 at 10:49 AM
I’ve been saying this on panels recently.
Europes EV tariffs are starting to fail. China is simply switching to exporting hybrids which weren’t under the duty.
I’m not convinced the EU can fully avoid a broader duty on all Chinese cars (EV Hybrid and ICE) - who all get subsidised anyway.
Europes EV tariffs are starting to fail. China is simply switching to exporting hybrids which weren’t under the duty.
I’m not convinced the EU can fully avoid a broader duty on all Chinese cars (EV Hybrid and ICE) - who all get subsidised anyway.
From the great new NBER paper by Bloom et al on the cost of Brexit.
It ain't pretty - they estimate UK GDP is down between 6-8%. Consistent with the doppelgang model of @johnspringford.bsky.social for CER.
A lot of 'free' GDP available availabe for Labour if it had the courage to reset properly.
It ain't pretty - they estimate UK GDP is down between 6-8%. Consistent with the doppelgang model of @johnspringford.bsky.social for CER.
A lot of 'free' GDP available availabe for Labour if it had the courage to reset properly.
November 17, 2025 at 9:57 PM
From the great new NBER paper by Bloom et al on the cost of Brexit.
It ain't pretty - they estimate UK GDP is down between 6-8%. Consistent with the doppelgang model of @johnspringford.bsky.social for CER.
A lot of 'free' GDP available availabe for Labour if it had the courage to reset properly.
It ain't pretty - they estimate UK GDP is down between 6-8%. Consistent with the doppelgang model of @johnspringford.bsky.social for CER.
A lot of 'free' GDP available availabe for Labour if it had the courage to reset properly.
More evidence of European luxury facing increasing competition from home-grown Chinese brands.
Bloomberg: "Chinese consumers are losing interest in heritage European and US luxury brands, instead favoring homegrown premium labels for their distinctive Eastern aesthetic"
Bloomberg: "Chinese consumers are losing interest in heritage European and US luxury brands, instead favoring homegrown premium labels for their distinctive Eastern aesthetic"
November 17, 2025 at 9:55 AM
More evidence of European luxury facing increasing competition from home-grown Chinese brands.
Bloomberg: "Chinese consumers are losing interest in heritage European and US luxury brands, instead favoring homegrown premium labels for their distinctive Eastern aesthetic"
Bloomberg: "Chinese consumers are losing interest in heritage European and US luxury brands, instead favoring homegrown premium labels for their distinctive Eastern aesthetic"
Excellent AER paper from Luca et al. demonstrating how China’s exports crowd out production and curb innovation globally.
It reinforces the argument I made in Politico last year about the drag China’s distortions place on EU productivity and innovation.
1/
It reinforces the argument I made in Politico last year about the drag China’s distortions place on EU productivity and innovation.
1/
November 17, 2025 at 9:42 AM
Excellent AER paper from Luca et al. demonstrating how China’s exports crowd out production and curb innovation globally.
It reinforces the argument I made in Politico last year about the drag China’s distortions place on EU productivity and innovation.
1/
It reinforces the argument I made in Politico last year about the drag China’s distortions place on EU productivity and innovation.
1/
Some reflections from my side in the FT.
There’s widespread concern about the low quality of Germany’s spending.
I’d add that the European single market is indispensable to rekindle the German economy.
1/
There’s widespread concern about the low quality of Germany’s spending.
I’d add that the European single market is indispensable to rekindle the German economy.
1/
November 15, 2025 at 2:26 PM
Some reflections from my side in the FT.
There’s widespread concern about the low quality of Germany’s spending.
I’d add that the European single market is indispensable to rekindle the German economy.
1/
There’s widespread concern about the low quality of Germany’s spending.
I’d add that the European single market is indispensable to rekindle the German economy.
1/
Gold and Rolex helped too
November 15, 2025 at 11:30 AM
Gold and Rolex helped too
One indicator of all this: Germany's car exports to China are headed to very low levels.
November 13, 2025 at 11:23 AM
One indicator of all this: Germany's car exports to China are headed to very low levels.
So I don’t think Dalia’s or my proposals are particularly radical -- Germany needs to start making moves to level the playing field with China or accept widespread industrial damage.
Whether or not you like cars or manufacturing, it matters greatly for productivity.
11/
Whether or not you like cars or manufacturing, it matters greatly for productivity.
11/
November 13, 2025 at 11:21 AM
So I don’t think Dalia’s or my proposals are particularly radical -- Germany needs to start making moves to level the playing field with China or accept widespread industrial damage.
Whether or not you like cars or manufacturing, it matters greatly for productivity.
11/
Whether or not you like cars or manufacturing, it matters greatly for productivity.
11/
A few hundred more tanks help, but Germany has already lost 50% of its net car exports - a million vehicles - and China’s global car exports continue to surge.
I hope France’s G7 presidency helps convince China to lift internal demand, but hope is not a plan.
10/
I hope France’s G7 presidency helps convince China to lift internal demand, but hope is not a plan.
10/
November 13, 2025 at 11:21 AM
A few hundred more tanks help, but Germany has already lost 50% of its net car exports - a million vehicles - and China’s global car exports continue to surge.
I hope France’s G7 presidency helps convince China to lift internal demand, but hope is not a plan.
10/
I hope France’s G7 presidency helps convince China to lift internal demand, but hope is not a plan.
10/
But they also shouldn't overlook the key role of an undervalued yuan exchange rate nor the mismatch between ever-expanding Chinese supply and anaemic domestic demand (see chart from the strong ECB blog)
EU diplomats will have to pick up the baton on currency issues and macroeconomic imbalances.
4/
EU diplomats will have to pick up the baton on currency issues and macroeconomic imbalances.
4/
November 13, 2025 at 11:21 AM
But they also shouldn't overlook the key role of an undervalued yuan exchange rate nor the mismatch between ever-expanding Chinese supply and anaemic domestic demand (see chart from the strong ECB blog)
EU diplomats will have to pick up the baton on currency issues and macroeconomic imbalances.
4/
EU diplomats will have to pick up the baton on currency issues and macroeconomic imbalances.
4/
The changing role of China from customer to fierce competitor is a key reason why German industrial production has slumped back to 2005 (ouch) levels.
Good to see the FT give China the attention it deserves in Germany’s decline -- that wasn’t always the case in the debate.
2/
Good to see the FT give China the attention it deserves in Germany’s decline -- that wasn’t always the case in the debate.
2/
November 13, 2025 at 11:21 AM
The changing role of China from customer to fierce competitor is a key reason why German industrial production has slumped back to 2005 (ouch) levels.
Good to see the FT give China the attention it deserves in Germany’s decline -- that wasn’t always the case in the debate.
2/
Good to see the FT give China the attention it deserves in Germany’s decline -- that wasn’t always the case in the debate.
2/
The exportweltmeister has been dethroned. Can anything halt the decline of German industry?
Rarmament won’t turn things around. As the FT's Storbeck notes, Germany employs fewer people building tanks than making toys.
Macroeconomic and civilian industrial policies will be vital. Some thoughts
1/
Rarmament won’t turn things around. As the FT's Storbeck notes, Germany employs fewer people building tanks than making toys.
Macroeconomic and civilian industrial policies will be vital. Some thoughts
1/
November 13, 2025 at 11:21 AM
The exportweltmeister has been dethroned. Can anything halt the decline of German industry?
Rarmament won’t turn things around. As the FT's Storbeck notes, Germany employs fewer people building tanks than making toys.
Macroeconomic and civilian industrial policies will be vital. Some thoughts
1/
Rarmament won’t turn things around. As the FT's Storbeck notes, Germany employs fewer people building tanks than making toys.
Macroeconomic and civilian industrial policies will be vital. Some thoughts
1/
Not entirely sure Dalia or my proposals are particularly radical anymore - Germany needs to start making moves to level the playing field with China or accept widespread industrial damage from Chinas subsidies, undervalued exchange rate, closed off home market, and overcapacities.
3/
3/
November 12, 2025 at 9:29 PM
Not entirely sure Dalia or my proposals are particularly radical anymore - Germany needs to start making moves to level the playing field with China or accept widespread industrial damage from Chinas subsidies, undervalued exchange rate, closed off home market, and overcapacities.
3/
3/
The changing role of China is essential in Germanys industrial decline and a key reason why industrial production has slumped back to 2005 levels.
Good to see it receive the prominence it deserves - it wasn’t always so in the debate.
That deficit will blow our far wider still.
2/
Good to see it receive the prominence it deserves - it wasn’t always so in the debate.
That deficit will blow our far wider still.
2/
November 12, 2025 at 9:29 PM
The changing role of China is essential in Germanys industrial decline and a key reason why industrial production has slumped back to 2005 levels.
Good to see it receive the prominence it deserves - it wasn’t always so in the debate.
That deficit will blow our far wider still.
2/
Good to see it receive the prominence it deserves - it wasn’t always so in the debate.
That deficit will blow our far wider still.
2/
Weer een mooie podcast van PG Kroeger en Jaap Jansen.
Het economische verhaal van Argentinie is een tragedie en Nederland lijkt er geenzins op.
Het economische verhaal van Argentinie is een tragedie en Nederland lijkt er geenzins op.
November 11, 2025 at 10:08 AM
Weer een mooie podcast van PG Kroeger en Jaap Jansen.
Het economische verhaal van Argentinie is een tragedie en Nederland lijkt er geenzins op.
Het economische verhaal van Argentinie is een tragedie en Nederland lijkt er geenzins op.
"...as the drag from low levels of domestic household consumption is no longer masked by a turbo-charged property sector."
Still, the ECB is 100% right to say diversion from US tariffs isn't the core issue - China's explosive exports predate the second Trump administration (see nice chart).
3/
Still, the ECB is 100% right to say diversion from US tariffs isn't the core issue - China's explosive exports predate the second Trump administration (see nice chart).
3/
November 11, 2025 at 9:49 AM
"...as the drag from low levels of domestic household consumption is no longer masked by a turbo-charged property sector."
Still, the ECB is 100% right to say diversion from US tariffs isn't the core issue - China's explosive exports predate the second Trump administration (see nice chart).
3/
Still, the ECB is 100% right to say diversion from US tariffs isn't the core issue - China's explosive exports predate the second Trump administration (see nice chart).
3/
Erik Nielsen with another good example of why bureaucracy isn’t really Germanys main woe.
The US wastes 3x the resources on healthcare admin 👀
The US wastes 3x the resources on healthcare admin 👀
November 9, 2025 at 9:14 PM
Erik Nielsen with another good example of why bureaucracy isn’t really Germanys main woe.
The US wastes 3x the resources on healthcare admin 👀
The US wastes 3x the resources on healthcare admin 👀
One of the most self-destructive things Germany could do is to reverse the green transition now.
Renewables expansion has been on a tear but Germany has seen reversals before, unfortunately. And the country still does not have oil or gas and isn’t getting any anytime soon (ever).
Renewables expansion has been on a tear but Germany has seen reversals before, unfortunately. And the country still does not have oil or gas and isn’t getting any anytime soon (ever).
November 9, 2025 at 3:28 PM
One of the most self-destructive things Germany could do is to reverse the green transition now.
Renewables expansion has been on a tear but Germany has seen reversals before, unfortunately. And the country still does not have oil or gas and isn’t getting any anytime soon (ever).
Renewables expansion has been on a tear but Germany has seen reversals before, unfortunately. And the country still does not have oil or gas and isn’t getting any anytime soon (ever).
A fun chart. AI as a general purpose tech. Is this time different or not? And if so will it lead to walhalla or human extinction? Take your pick.
November 7, 2025 at 12:05 PM
A fun chart. AI as a general purpose tech. Is this time different or not? And if so will it lead to walhalla or human extinction? Take your pick.
Fascinating.
The bluffers guide to the railway bubble vs the actual historians.
And why Britain has such a lousy railway system.
The bluffers guide to the railway bubble vs the actual historians.
And why Britain has such a lousy railway system.
November 6, 2025 at 6:10 PM
Fascinating.
The bluffers guide to the railway bubble vs the actual historians.
And why Britain has such a lousy railway system.
The bluffers guide to the railway bubble vs the actual historians.
And why Britain has such a lousy railway system.