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Semra Sevi

@semrasevi.bsky.social

1.4K followers 3.1K following 33 posts

Assistant Professor of Political Science at the University of Toronto www.semrasevi.com

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Semra Sevi @semrasevi.bsky.social · Sep 4

Congrats, Jacob!!

Reposted by Semra Sevi

Inessa De Angelis @inessadeangelis.bsky.social · Sep 4

Which Canadian MPs are on Bluesky and what do they post?

My new paper w/ @rohanalexander.bsky.social in @cjps-rcsp.bsky.social unpacks these questions, finding MPs
use it like Twitter to discuss policy, the Ottawa bubble & constituency

Read more: doi.org/10.1017/S000...

#polsky #commsky #cdnpoli

What are Canadian Members of Parliament Doing on Bluesky? research note abstract

Semra Sevi @semrasevi.bsky.social · Sep 4

Congrats! Can't wait to read this.

Semra Sevi @semrasevi.bsky.social · Aug 16

Very cool! Looking forward to read these. The last one is intriguing 😉

Semra Sevi @semrasevi.bsky.social · Aug 16

Thanks. Republicans appear more biased, but that doesn't mean they're more likely to hide it. We didn't measure overt bias.

Semra Sevi @semrasevi.bsky.social · Aug 15

Thanks! Would love to hear more about what you're doing with list experiments.

Semra Sevi @semrasevi.bsky.social · Aug 15

🚨NEW STUDY: Do Americans support a woman president? Our list experiment during the 2024 election, when @kamalaharris.com was on the ballot, reveals hidden bias, and it's more widespread than you'd expect.

journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...

Do Voters Support a Female President? Evidence from a List Experiment - Semra Sevi, Can Mekik, 2025

Public opinion polls indicate that a significant portion of the American public would be willing to vote for a qualified female presidential candidate. However,...

journals.sagepub.com

Semra Sevi @semrasevi.bsky.social · Aug 10

Congrats, Alex!! I’m so happy for you!

Reposted by Semra Sevi

Political Science Research and Methods @psrm.bsky.social · Jul 21

🪃Do legislators trade proposals?

➡️Leveraging a lottery in the Canadian Parliament, @semrasevi.bsky.social & D.P. Green find little evidence MPs second motions to gain favor. Support seems driven by shared interests, not quid pro quo www.cambridge.org/core/journal... #FirstView

Semra Sevi @semrasevi.bsky.social · Jul 11

Why is reciprocity so weak in 🇨🇦?

Strong party discipline limits side deals even in the more flexible world of PMBs.

Our study, using a rare real-world lottery, shows:

Legislative support often reflects shared values, not traded favours.

Not all politics is transactional.

Semra Sevi @semrasevi.bsky.social · Jul 11

So why second at all?

✅ Shared party
✅ Common values
✅ Constituency interests

In other words: homophily, not horse-trading.

Sometimes, MPs just support what they believe in, not because they expect payback.

Semra Sevi @semrasevi.bsky.social · Jul 11

Weak evidence for strategic seconding.

MPs with better lottery spots are slightly more likely to second others, and there's almost no evidence that favours are returned in future parliaments.

Semra Sevi @semrasevi.bsky.social · Jul 11

We tested two things:

🔁 Do MPs second each other within the same parliament?
🔄 Do they return favors across different parliaments?

The results?

Semra Sevi @semrasevi.bsky.social · Jul 11

After a PMB is introduced, MPs can formally second it to show support.

If reciprocity exists, we’d expect MPs with good lottery spots to second others hoping to get support back when it’s their turn.

Semra Sevi @semrasevi.bsky.social · Jul 11

In Canada, MPs are randomly assigned a spot in a lottery that determines who can introduce a private member’s bill (PMB).

This lets us test:

· Who supports whom

· Whether support gets repaid

· If it’s loyalty, strategy or something else

Semra Sevi @semrasevi.bsky.social · Jul 11

🚨NEW PAPER: Do legislators trade favours?

My latest with Donald Green uses a natural lottery in the Canadian Parliament to test whether MPs return favours when others support their proposals.

Our findings may surprise you.👇

www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

Semra Sevi @semrasevi.bsky.social · Jun 9

Thanks, Rohan!

Semra Sevi @semrasevi.bsky.social · Jun 9

What changed?

When party labels appeared on ballots, voters relied more on partisan cues than indiv. candidate familiarity. Result? The personal edge of incumbents disappeared. Party > Person.

Link: www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

@uoft.bsky.social

The Incumbency Advantage in Canadian Elections | Canadian Journal of Political Science/Revue canadienne de science politique | Cambridge Core

The Incumbency Advantage in Canadian Elections

www.cambridge.org

Semra Sevi @semrasevi.bsky.social · Jun 9

FINDING #2: Party matters more than person

Incumbency advantage:
Liberals pre-1972: +16 pts
Conservatives pre-1972: +8 pts (not significant)
Post-1972: Both parties? Advantage vanishes.

Semra Sevi @semrasevi.bsky.social · Jun 9

Using data from 1867 to 2021, and a RDD, I estimate the causal impact of incumbency on electoral success.

FINDING #1: The incumbency advantage shrank dramatically.

✅ Before 1972: Incumbents had a 15-point edge.
❌ After 1972: Just 2 points, and no longer significant.

Semra Sevi @semrasevi.bsky.social · Jun 9

Before 1972, Canadian ballots showed only:
• Candidate names
• Occupations

No party labels. No shortcuts for voters.

Then came a 1970 law: Starting in 1972, ballots began listing party affiliations alongside candidate names.

Semra Sevi @semrasevi.bsky.social · Jun 9

🚨NEW PAPER: Do incumbents really have an edge in elections?

Research says yes. But what happens when party labels are added to the ballot?

A natural experiment from Canadian elections tells an interesting story👇🧵

Reposted by Semra Sevi

University of Toronto @utoronto.ca · May 9

From classroom to control room: #UofT students join Global News on election night 🗳️ uoft.me/bzJ

Sevi and her students worked behind the scenes in the busy newsroom

Reposted by Semra Sevi

U of T Faculty of Arts & Science @artsci.utoronto.ca · May 1

#UofTArtSci students joined @globalnews.ca on election night, working behind the scenes in the newsroom to help call live results — an unforgettable hands-on experience.

Read more: bit.ly/3YpJPQL

Professor Semra Sevi and her students standing behind a global news desk.

Semra Sevi @semrasevi.bsky.social · May 1

Thank you!!