Spencer Greenberg
@spencrgreenberg.bsky.social
A mathematician/entrepreneur in social science. On here, I write about psychology, critical thinking, philosophy, tech, and society.
If you predict that something will happen by date X and it doesn't, then your prediction is false. If we were to use early/late then we'd actually need three categories "early", "late", and "we don't know because it still hasn't happened" which would be more confusing/less concise.
June 22, 2025 at 4:27 PM
If you predict that something will happen by date X and it doesn't, then your prediction is false. If we were to use early/late then we'd actually need three categories "early", "late", and "we don't know because it still hasn't happened" which would be more confusing/less concise.
If you found this interesting, I'd appreciate a follow at @spencrgreenberg.bsky.social
And you can hear the entire detailed conversation about this topic (with Greg Lopez) on the Clearer Thinking podcast, here: podcast.clearerthinking.org/episode/267/...
And you can hear the entire detailed conversation about this topic (with Greg Lopez) on the Clearer Thinking podcast, here: podcast.clearerthinking.org/episode/267/...
June 22, 2025 at 2:51 PM
If you found this interesting, I'd appreciate a follow at @spencrgreenberg.bsky.social
And you can hear the entire detailed conversation about this topic (with Greg Lopez) on the Clearer Thinking podcast, here: podcast.clearerthinking.org/episode/267/...
And you can hear the entire detailed conversation about this topic (with Greg Lopez) on the Clearer Thinking podcast, here: podcast.clearerthinking.org/episode/267/...
4) As Greg Lopez describes it, Stoic growth is a 3 stage training loop:
1️⃣ Discipline of Desire – value only what’s “up to us.”
2️⃣ Discipline of Action – act intentionally & prosocially.
3️⃣ Discipline of Assent – have moment-to-moment vigilance.
1️⃣ Discipline of Desire – value only what’s “up to us.”
2️⃣ Discipline of Action – act intentionally & prosocially.
3️⃣ Discipline of Assent – have moment-to-moment vigilance.
June 22, 2025 at 2:51 PM
4) As Greg Lopez describes it, Stoic growth is a 3 stage training loop:
1️⃣ Discipline of Desire – value only what’s “up to us.”
2️⃣ Discipline of Action – act intentionally & prosocially.
3️⃣ Discipline of Assent – have moment-to-moment vigilance.
1️⃣ Discipline of Desire – value only what’s “up to us.”
2️⃣ Discipline of Action – act intentionally & prosocially.
3️⃣ Discipline of Assent – have moment-to-moment vigilance.
3) Many people believe that Stoicism is about becoming immune to negative events. That's not the point of it, though! The goal is actually to be the best human being in terms of virtue and character.
June 22, 2025 at 2:51 PM
3) Many people believe that Stoicism is about becoming immune to negative events. That's not the point of it, though! The goal is actually to be the best human being in terms of virtue and character.
2) The rival answers of what to optimize for:
• Cyrenaicism → momentary physical pleasure
• Epicureanism → stable mental pleasure by removing distress
• Pyrrhonism → ataraxia (mental tranquillity) through radical doubt
• Stoicism → virtue/character excellence
• Cyrenaicism → momentary physical pleasure
• Epicureanism → stable mental pleasure by removing distress
• Pyrrhonism → ataraxia (mental tranquillity) through radical doubt
• Stoicism → virtue/character excellence
June 22, 2025 at 2:51 PM
2) The rival answers of what to optimize for:
• Cyrenaicism → momentary physical pleasure
• Epicureanism → stable mental pleasure by removing distress
• Pyrrhonism → ataraxia (mental tranquillity) through radical doubt
• Stoicism → virtue/character excellence
• Cyrenaicism → momentary physical pleasure
• Epicureanism → stable mental pleasure by removing distress
• Pyrrhonism → ataraxia (mental tranquillity) through radical doubt
• Stoicism → virtue/character excellence
1) Telos = a single, overriding end worth building a life around.
These Greco-Roman schools start by insisting that something is "the thing for which you value for its own sake." They each proclaimed that there is a (different) single best thing to pursue.
These Greco-Roman schools start by insisting that something is "the thing for which you value for its own sake." They each proclaimed that there is a (different) single best thing to pursue.
June 22, 2025 at 2:51 PM
1) Telos = a single, overriding end worth building a life around.
These Greco-Roman schools start by insisting that something is "the thing for which you value for its own sake." They each proclaimed that there is a (different) single best thing to pursue.
These Greco-Roman schools start by insisting that something is "the thing for which you value for its own sake." They each proclaimed that there is a (different) single best thing to pursue.
Here's what Musk says about his own predictions (see image).
And if you'd like to read our full report with our method, here it is: www.clearerthinking.org/post/how-goo...
And if you'd like to read our full report with our method, here it is: www.clearerthinking.org/post/how-goo...
April 18, 2025 at 2:42 PM
Here's what Musk says about his own predictions (see image).
And if you'd like to read our full report with our method, here it is: www.clearerthinking.org/post/how-goo...
And if you'd like to read our full report with our method, here it is: www.clearerthinking.org/post/how-goo...
Link to participate in the study on hotly debated topics in academic psychology:
www.guidedtrack.com/programs/bek...
It covers topics like:
• effects of social media on teen mental health
• fraud in academic psychology
• the interpretation of controversial findings
Thank you!
www.guidedtrack.com/programs/bek...
It covers topics like:
• effects of social media on teen mental health
• fraud in academic psychology
• the interpretation of controversial findings
Thank you!
March 15, 2025 at 3:48 PM
Link to participate in the study on hotly debated topics in academic psychology:
www.guidedtrack.com/programs/bek...
It covers topics like:
• effects of social media on teen mental health
• fraud in academic psychology
• the interpretation of controversial findings
Thank you!
www.guidedtrack.com/programs/bek...
It covers topics like:
• effects of social media on teen mental health
• fraud in academic psychology
• the interpretation of controversial findings
Thank you!
And here's the meta-analysis that I mentioned which compared exposure therapy to other methods:
"Psychological approaches in the treatment of specific phobias: A meta-analysis"
bit.ly/405wFJQ
"Psychological approaches in the treatment of specific phobias: A meta-analysis"
bit.ly/405wFJQ
December 25, 2024 at 1:31 AM
And here's the meta-analysis that I mentioned which compared exposure therapy to other methods:
"Psychological approaches in the treatment of specific phobias: A meta-analysis"
bit.ly/405wFJQ
"Psychological approaches in the treatment of specific phobias: A meta-analysis"
bit.ly/405wFJQ
The process is tough but simple. If an acute fear is limiting your life or potential, Exposure Therapy is likely to help, as it helped me overcome my fear of approaching strangers.
If you found this helpful, I’d appreciate a follow. I'm new to bluesky! Me: bsky.app/profile/spen...
If you found this helpful, I’d appreciate a follow. I'm new to bluesky! Me: bsky.app/profile/spen...
bsky.app
December 25, 2024 at 1:31 AM
The process is tough but simple. If an acute fear is limiting your life or potential, Exposure Therapy is likely to help, as it helped me overcome my fear of approaching strangers.
If you found this helpful, I’d appreciate a follow. I'm new to bluesky! Me: bsky.app/profile/spen...
If you found this helpful, I’d appreciate a follow. I'm new to bluesky! Me: bsky.app/profile/spen...
If real exposure is too hard or impossible, you can do “Imaginal Exposure,” vividly picturing the feared scenario until you feel genuine anxiety and ride it out.
Note that setbacks and flare-ups are normal—sometimes you need “refresher” exposures to stay on track.
Note that setbacks and flare-ups are normal—sometimes you need “refresher” exposures to stay on track.
December 25, 2024 at 1:31 AM
If real exposure is too hard or impossible, you can do “Imaginal Exposure,” vividly picturing the feared scenario until you feel genuine anxiety and ride it out.
Note that setbacks and flare-ups are normal—sometimes you need “refresher” exposures to stay on track.
Note that setbacks and flare-ups are normal—sometimes you need “refresher” exposures to stay on track.
Exposure Therapy is often easiest with specific triggers. However, it may not fully generalize to different triggers. Expect to repeat the process for each major fear and different situations. Vary your exposure to cover multiple scenarios.
December 25, 2024 at 1:31 AM
Exposure Therapy is often easiest with specific triggers. However, it may not fully generalize to different triggers. Expect to repeat the process for each major fear and different situations. Vary your exposure to cover multiple scenarios.
A useful add-on is to track your “Subjective Units of Distress” (SUDS) from 0 to 100 before, during, and after each exposure. This helps you measure your progress and decide when to level up.
December 25, 2024 at 1:31 AM
A useful add-on is to track your “Subjective Units of Distress” (SUDS) from 0 to 100 before, during, and after each exposure. This helps you measure your progress and decide when to level up.
Step 4: Repeat the process! A single long exposure (like letting a harmless spider crawl on you for 2 hours) can work in some cases, but usually multiple exposures are needed. As one level in the fear hierarchy gets easier, move up your hierarchy to the next level.
December 25, 2024 at 1:31 AM
Step 4: Repeat the process! A single long exposure (like letting a harmless spider crawl on you for 2 hours) can work in some cases, but usually multiple exposures are needed. As one level in the fear hierarchy gets easier, move up your hierarchy to the next level.
Be sure to design your exposures so that they won’t harm others or be a major nuisance. You want to tackle your irrational fears, not create problems for other people.
December 25, 2024 at 1:31 AM
Be sure to design your exposures so that they won’t harm others or be a major nuisance. You want to tackle your irrational fears, not create problems for other people.
Instead of using coping behaviors, Feel the fear fully. It won’t harm you. Running away tells your brain the danger is real or that fear itself is dangerous; staying put teaches it you’re actually safe.
December 25, 2024 at 1:31 AM
Instead of using coping behaviors, Feel the fear fully. It won’t harm you. Running away tells your brain the danger is real or that fear itself is dangerous; staying put teaches it you’re actually safe.
Another key: avoid “safety behaviors.” If you have a phobia of flying and always research plane safety first, your brain thinks, “Planes are safe if I research,” not “Planes are safe.” You must teach your brain the right rule, and coping behaviors interfere with that.
December 25, 2024 at 1:31 AM
Another key: avoid “safety behaviors.” If you have a phobia of flying and always research plane safety first, your brain thinks, “Planes are safe if I research,” not “Planes are safe.” You must teach your brain the right rule, and coping behaviors interfere with that.
You can also do “Flooding” by jumping straight to your worst fear, but it’s intense. If you bail out prematurely, it can backfire. Most people prefer gradual exposure for a higher chance of success.
December 25, 2024 at 1:31 AM
You can also do “Flooding” by jumping straight to your worst fear, but it’s intense. If you bail out prematurely, it can backfire. Most people prefer gradual exposure for a higher chance of success.
If you bail early, you reinforce fear. But if you stay put when nothing awful happens, your anxiety typically falls. Your brain learns. It predicted doom, but doom never came. So, it starts to predict less doom.
December 25, 2024 at 1:31 AM
If you bail early, you reinforce fear. But if you stay put when nothing awful happens, your anxiety typically falls. Your brain learns. It predicted doom, but doom never came. So, it starts to predict less doom.