Callum Thomas
@topdowncharts.bsky.social
Head of Research & Founder at Topdown Charts
(chart-driven macro insights for investors)
(chart-driven macro insights for investors)
Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm www.chartstorm.info/p/weekly-s-a...
This week: decennial cycles, ups and downs, Consumer Staples, REITs, equity capital markets in focus, ETF bubble, private vs public markets, commodities...
This week: decennial cycles, ups and downs, Consumer Staples, REITs, equity capital markets in focus, ETF bubble, private vs public markets, commodities...
December 7, 2025 at 1:45 AM
Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm www.chartstorm.info/p/weekly-s-a...
This week: decennial cycles, ups and downs, Consumer Staples, REITs, equity capital markets in focus, ETF bubble, private vs public markets, commodities...
This week: decennial cycles, ups and downs, Consumer Staples, REITs, equity capital markets in focus, ETF bubble, private vs public markets, commodities...
Market Cycle Guidebook - November 2025
Asset class views, macro outlook, long-term expectations, and over 70 charts tracking macro policy, cycle data, and valuations across a global multi-asset universe...
Download report: www.topdowncharts.pro/p/market-cyc...
Asset class views, macro outlook, long-term expectations, and over 70 charts tracking macro policy, cycle data, and valuations across a global multi-asset universe...
Download report: www.topdowncharts.pro/p/market-cyc...
December 6, 2025 at 7:25 PM
Market Cycle Guidebook - November 2025
Asset class views, macro outlook, long-term expectations, and over 70 charts tracking macro policy, cycle data, and valuations across a global multi-asset universe...
Download report: www.topdowncharts.pro/p/market-cyc...
Asset class views, macro outlook, long-term expectations, and over 70 charts tracking macro policy, cycle data, and valuations across a global multi-asset universe...
Download report: www.topdowncharts.pro/p/market-cyc...
Higher For Longer?
Ultimately bond yields reflect the state of growth and inflation, so unless we get a recession or shock (driving growth/inflation lower), then bond yields might just linger higher for longer...
Fixed Income Outlook: www.chartstorm.info/p/off-topic-...
Ultimately bond yields reflect the state of growth and inflation, so unless we get a recession or shock (driving growth/inflation lower), then bond yields might just linger higher for longer...
Fixed Income Outlook: www.chartstorm.info/p/off-topic-...
December 5, 2025 at 8:00 PM
Higher For Longer?
Ultimately bond yields reflect the state of growth and inflation, so unless we get a recession or shock (driving growth/inflation lower), then bond yields might just linger higher for longer...
Fixed Income Outlook: www.chartstorm.info/p/off-topic-...
Ultimately bond yields reflect the state of growth and inflation, so unless we get a recession or shock (driving growth/inflation lower), then bond yields might just linger higher for longer...
Fixed Income Outlook: www.chartstorm.info/p/off-topic-...
Commodities are transitioning from cyclical bear to New Cyclical Bull Market.
These are the key charts to watch: gold.topdowncharts.com/p/goldnugget...
These are the key charts to watch: gold.topdowncharts.com/p/goldnugget...
December 5, 2025 at 7:40 PM
Commodities are transitioning from cyclical bear to New Cyclical Bull Market.
These are the key charts to watch: gold.topdowncharts.com/p/goldnugget...
These are the key charts to watch: gold.topdowncharts.com/p/goldnugget...
The most underestimated and hated asset class right now (US Treasuries) is looking quite interesting I must say.
Definitely a contrarian setup.
But definitely worth looking into...
Further thoughts: www.chartstorm.info/p/off-topic-...
Definitely a contrarian setup.
But definitely worth looking into...
Further thoughts: www.chartstorm.info/p/off-topic-...
December 4, 2025 at 9:55 PM
The most underestimated and hated asset class right now (US Treasuries) is looking quite interesting I must say.
Definitely a contrarian setup.
But definitely worth looking into...
Further thoughts: www.chartstorm.info/p/off-topic-...
Definitely a contrarian setup.
But definitely worth looking into...
Further thoughts: www.chartstorm.info/p/off-topic-...
S&P size indexes relative performance
Basically everything that's not mega caps have underperformed --- even large caps have seen significant underperformance (i.e. the S&P500 excluding the top 100 stocks)
Highly unusual, but whenever it happens like this eventually you see some give-back...
From
Basically everything that's not mega caps have underperformed --- even large caps have seen significant underperformance (i.e. the S&P500 excluding the top 100 stocks)
Highly unusual, but whenever it happens like this eventually you see some give-back...
From
December 4, 2025 at 8:38 PM
S&P size indexes relative performance
Basically everything that's not mega caps have underperformed --- even large caps have seen significant underperformance (i.e. the S&P500 excluding the top 100 stocks)
Highly unusual, but whenever it happens like this eventually you see some give-back...
From
Basically everything that's not mega caps have underperformed --- even large caps have seen significant underperformance (i.e. the S&P500 excluding the top 100 stocks)
Highly unusual, but whenever it happens like this eventually you see some give-back...
From
Rate Cuts = Commodities Up. 📈
A global pivot to rate cuts over the past 2 years has set up a major tailwind to growth ...and ultimately higher commodity prices.
Commodity Outlook: gold.topdowncharts.com/p/goldnugget...
A global pivot to rate cuts over the past 2 years has set up a major tailwind to growth ...and ultimately higher commodity prices.
Commodity Outlook: gold.topdowncharts.com/p/goldnugget...
December 4, 2025 at 6:39 PM
Rate Cuts = Commodities Up. 📈
A global pivot to rate cuts over the past 2 years has set up a major tailwind to growth ...and ultimately higher commodity prices.
Commodity Outlook: gold.topdowncharts.com/p/goldnugget...
A global pivot to rate cuts over the past 2 years has set up a major tailwind to growth ...and ultimately higher commodity prices.
Commodity Outlook: gold.topdowncharts.com/p/goldnugget...
Which stage in the cycle?
December 4, 2025 at 1:29 AM
Which stage in the cycle?
The history of US interest rates is one of long-term cycles...
Up phases, and down phases.
High rates, low rates.
But something stands out >> these cycles used to take a long time to run their course. The recent upcycle was faster and sharper.
Is this the beginning of cycle compression?
Explai
Up phases, and down phases.
High rates, low rates.
But something stands out >> these cycles used to take a long time to run their course. The recent upcycle was faster and sharper.
Is this the beginning of cycle compression?
Explai
December 4, 2025 at 12:10 AM
The history of US interest rates is one of long-term cycles...
Up phases, and down phases.
High rates, low rates.
But something stands out >> these cycles used to take a long time to run their course. The recent upcycle was faster and sharper.
Is this the beginning of cycle compression?
Explai
Up phases, and down phases.
High rates, low rates.
But something stands out >> these cycles used to take a long time to run their course. The recent upcycle was faster and sharper.
Is this the beginning of cycle compression?
Explai
Gold is Expensive.
Commodities are Cheap.
Rotation time?
Thoughts: gold.topdowncharts.com/p/goldnugget...
Commodities are Cheap.
Rotation time?
Thoughts: gold.topdowncharts.com/p/goldnugget...
December 3, 2025 at 9:52 PM
Gold is Expensive.
Commodities are Cheap.
Rotation time?
Thoughts: gold.topdowncharts.com/p/goldnugget...
Commodities are Cheap.
Rotation time?
Thoughts: gold.topdowncharts.com/p/goldnugget...
Bonds are still in a bear market...
But here's some clues on the next steps: www.chartstorm.info/p/off-topic-...
But here's some clues on the next steps: www.chartstorm.info/p/off-topic-...
December 3, 2025 at 8:49 AM
Bonds are still in a bear market...
But here's some clues on the next steps: www.chartstorm.info/p/off-topic-...
But here's some clues on the next steps: www.chartstorm.info/p/off-topic-...
Commodity flows signal 🚨
We saw similar surge when commodities turned up from the 2020 crash lows, again accelerating into the 2022 blow-off top, and also earlier back in 2015/16 when commodities started basing after the Supercycle bust.
Bullish signal: gold.topdowncharts.com/p/goldnugget...
We saw similar surge when commodities turned up from the 2020 crash lows, again accelerating into the 2022 blow-off top, and also earlier back in 2015/16 when commodities started basing after the Supercycle bust.
Bullish signal: gold.topdowncharts.com/p/goldnugget...
December 2, 2025 at 8:54 PM
Commodity flows signal 🚨
We saw similar surge when commodities turned up from the 2020 crash lows, again accelerating into the 2022 blow-off top, and also earlier back in 2015/16 when commodities started basing after the Supercycle bust.
Bullish signal: gold.topdowncharts.com/p/goldnugget...
We saw similar surge when commodities turned up from the 2020 crash lows, again accelerating into the 2022 blow-off top, and also earlier back in 2015/16 when commodities started basing after the Supercycle bust.
Bullish signal: gold.topdowncharts.com/p/goldnugget...
Here's some of my favorite charts from the early years of the Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm (2015-2021)
Which one is your fav?
Link: www.chartstorm.info/p/weekly-s-a...
Which one is your fav?
Link: www.chartstorm.info/p/weekly-s-a...
December 2, 2025 at 4:00 PM
Here's some of my favorite charts from the early years of the Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm (2015-2021)
Which one is your fav?
Link: www.chartstorm.info/p/weekly-s-a...
Which one is your fav?
Link: www.chartstorm.info/p/weekly-s-a...
Something big is coming...
...Gold is speaking:
2026 Commodities Bull Market?
Analysis: gold.topdowncharts.com/p/goldnugget...
...Gold is speaking:
2026 Commodities Bull Market?
Analysis: gold.topdowncharts.com/p/goldnugget...
December 2, 2025 at 9:34 AM
Something big is coming...
...Gold is speaking:
2026 Commodities Bull Market?
Analysis: gold.topdowncharts.com/p/goldnugget...
...Gold is speaking:
2026 Commodities Bull Market?
Analysis: gold.topdowncharts.com/p/goldnugget...
US S&P stock index valuations
-Mega Caps = extreme expensive
-Large [500 ex-100 largest] = elevated
-Mid [400] + Small [600] = cheap
Source: www.chartstorm.info/p/weekly-s-a...
-Mega Caps = extreme expensive
-Large [500 ex-100 largest] = elevated
-Mid [400] + Small [600] = cheap
Source: www.chartstorm.info/p/weekly-s-a...
December 2, 2025 at 5:36 AM
US S&P stock index valuations
-Mega Caps = extreme expensive
-Large [500 ex-100 largest] = elevated
-Mid [400] + Small [600] = cheap
Source: www.chartstorm.info/p/weekly-s-a...
-Mega Caps = extreme expensive
-Large [500 ex-100 largest] = elevated
-Mid [400] + Small [600] = cheap
Source: www.chartstorm.info/p/weekly-s-a...
Chart of the Week - Bond Allocations
(an ominous pattern in portfolio allocations has been detected...)
Here's why we need to have a rethink about bonds: entrylevel.topdowncharts.com/p/chart-of-t...
(an ominous pattern in portfolio allocations has been detected...)
Here's why we need to have a rethink about bonds: entrylevel.topdowncharts.com/p/chart-of-t...
December 1, 2025 at 8:34 PM
Chart of the Week - Bond Allocations
(an ominous pattern in portfolio allocations has been detected...)
Here's why we need to have a rethink about bonds: entrylevel.topdowncharts.com/p/chart-of-t...
(an ominous pattern in portfolio allocations has been detected...)
Here's why we need to have a rethink about bonds: entrylevel.topdowncharts.com/p/chart-of-t...
One to watch in 2026... 👀
Commodities are cheap + have a lot of tailwinds set to come into play in the coming months/years.
8 Reasons to expect upside: entrylevel.topdowncharts.com/p/chart-of-t...
Commodities are cheap + have a lot of tailwinds set to come into play in the coming months/years.
8 Reasons to expect upside: entrylevel.topdowncharts.com/p/chart-of-t...
December 1, 2025 at 8:58 AM
One to watch in 2026... 👀
Commodities are cheap + have a lot of tailwinds set to come into play in the coming months/years.
8 Reasons to expect upside: entrylevel.topdowncharts.com/p/chart-of-t...
Commodities are cheap + have a lot of tailwinds set to come into play in the coming months/years.
8 Reasons to expect upside: entrylevel.topdowncharts.com/p/chart-of-t...
Markets are completely unphased by the US military build-up off the coast of Venezuela.
Which is strange, because it's a clearly observable known unknown...
Risk pricing too Complacent?
Things to monitor: www.chartstorm.info/p/weekly-s-a...
Which is strange, because it's a clearly observable known unknown...
Risk pricing too Complacent?
Things to monitor: www.chartstorm.info/p/weekly-s-a...
December 1, 2025 at 3:52 AM
Markets are completely unphased by the US military build-up off the coast of Venezuela.
Which is strange, because it's a clearly observable known unknown...
Risk pricing too Complacent?
Things to monitor: www.chartstorm.info/p/weekly-s-a...
Which is strange, because it's a clearly observable known unknown...
Risk pricing too Complacent?
Things to monitor: www.chartstorm.info/p/weekly-s-a...
Silver gaining ground vs Gold
(from cheap levels)
Expect to see more of this as global growth accelerates into 2026 and boosts silver (due to industrial uses) more than gold...
From: www.chartstorm.info/p/off-topic-...
(from cheap levels)
Expect to see more of this as global growth accelerates into 2026 and boosts silver (due to industrial uses) more than gold...
From: www.chartstorm.info/p/off-topic-...
November 30, 2025 at 10:34 PM
Silver gaining ground vs Gold
(from cheap levels)
Expect to see more of this as global growth accelerates into 2026 and boosts silver (due to industrial uses) more than gold...
From: www.chartstorm.info/p/off-topic-...
(from cheap levels)
Expect to see more of this as global growth accelerates into 2026 and boosts silver (due to industrial uses) more than gold...
From: www.chartstorm.info/p/off-topic-...
The latest Monthly Gold Market Chartbook has just been released.
There's some very important developments in this edition as gold, silver, and miners progress through the bull market.
Download the pack now: gold.topdowncharts.com/p/gold-marke...
There's some very important developments in this edition as gold, silver, and miners progress through the bull market.
Download the pack now: gold.topdowncharts.com/p/gold-marke...
November 30, 2025 at 7:54 PM
The latest Monthly Gold Market Chartbook has just been released.
There's some very important developments in this edition as gold, silver, and miners progress through the bull market.
Download the pack now: gold.topdowncharts.com/p/gold-marke...
There's some very important developments in this edition as gold, silver, and miners progress through the bull market.
Download the pack now: gold.topdowncharts.com/p/gold-marke...
Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm: www.chartstorm.info/p/weekly-s-a...
This week: monthly observations, technical check, LatAm stocks and geopolitical risk, more on capex, Mid-Caps and size divisions, volume traders, upside opportunities...
This week: monthly observations, technical check, LatAm stocks and geopolitical risk, more on capex, Mid-Caps and size divisions, volume traders, upside opportunities...
November 30, 2025 at 8:44 AM
Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm: www.chartstorm.info/p/weekly-s-a...
This week: monthly observations, technical check, LatAm stocks and geopolitical risk, more on capex, Mid-Caps and size divisions, volume traders, upside opportunities...
This week: monthly observations, technical check, LatAm stocks and geopolitical risk, more on capex, Mid-Caps and size divisions, volume traders, upside opportunities...
It might not be a bubble...
...but if there was one chart that looked bubble-like, this is it.
from the Weekly ChartStorm: www.chartstorm.info/p/weekly-s-a...
...but if there was one chart that looked bubble-like, this is it.
from the Weekly ChartStorm: www.chartstorm.info/p/weekly-s-a...
November 28, 2025 at 7:28 PM
It might not be a bubble...
...but if there was one chart that looked bubble-like, this is it.
from the Weekly ChartStorm: www.chartstorm.info/p/weekly-s-a...
...but if there was one chart that looked bubble-like, this is it.
from the Weekly ChartStorm: www.chartstorm.info/p/weekly-s-a...
Weekly Macro/Multi-Asset Pack
-Treasuries (bull case?)
-EM Fixed Income outlook
-EM Equities (risk-watch)
-LatAm Equities (geopol vs bulls)
-Defensives (right and wrong...)
Highlights + download link: www.topdowncharts.pro/p/weekly-mac...
-Treasuries (bull case?)
-EM Fixed Income outlook
-EM Equities (risk-watch)
-LatAm Equities (geopol vs bulls)
-Defensives (right and wrong...)
Highlights + download link: www.topdowncharts.pro/p/weekly-mac...
November 28, 2025 at 6:33 PM
Weekly Macro/Multi-Asset Pack
-Treasuries (bull case?)
-EM Fixed Income outlook
-EM Equities (risk-watch)
-LatAm Equities (geopol vs bulls)
-Defensives (right and wrong...)
Highlights + download link: www.topdowncharts.pro/p/weekly-mac...
-Treasuries (bull case?)
-EM Fixed Income outlook
-EM Equities (risk-watch)
-LatAm Equities (geopol vs bulls)
-Defensives (right and wrong...)
Highlights + download link: www.topdowncharts.pro/p/weekly-mac...
November 28, 2025 at 9:47 AM
A major secular tailwind behind US Equities has been the rise and rise of foreign stockholders.
I'd call this a strength, a potential weakness, and a reflection of multiple facts-of-life in modern markets.
as featured in the Weekly ChartStorm: www.chartstorm.info/p/weekly-s-a...
I'd call this a strength, a potential weakness, and a reflection of multiple facts-of-life in modern markets.
as featured in the Weekly ChartStorm: www.chartstorm.info/p/weekly-s-a...
November 28, 2025 at 2:50 AM
A major secular tailwind behind US Equities has been the rise and rise of foreign stockholders.
I'd call this a strength, a potential weakness, and a reflection of multiple facts-of-life in modern markets.
as featured in the Weekly ChartStorm: www.chartstorm.info/p/weekly-s-a...
I'd call this a strength, a potential weakness, and a reflection of multiple facts-of-life in modern markets.
as featured in the Weekly ChartStorm: www.chartstorm.info/p/weekly-s-a...