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A game of tariffs: is there demand for tariffs in Europe?

Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte @turnbulldugarte.com · 3h

Thanks for the rec Dan, this looks great!

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Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte @turnbulldugarte.com · 4h

Looking for a citation.

Are there any papers that systematically assess policy responsiveness disparities based on age groups generally or pension eligibility specifically?

Peter Allen @peterallen.bsky.social · 5d

Print and send this chart (from your newsletter on Tuesday) to every household in the country.

A graph from the FT showing government spending by age cohort. Over-70s have more spent on them than any other age cohort.

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Reposted by Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte

Katharina Lawall @katharinalawall.bsky.social · 4h

🚨New paper out at Journal of European Public Policy: Do Europeans want tariffs? No!

Our conjoint experiments show that the mass public does not support tariffs, no matter how they are framed. Full paper below ⬇️

It was great to work on such a timely piece with a stellar team of co-authors ✨

Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte @turnbulldugarte.com · 1d

Tariffs might be the word of 2025.

Given the state of *looks around* we asked: is there demand for tariffs in Europe?

@grahn.bsky.social @katharinalawall.bsky.social @sophiemainz.bsky.social Maria Nordbrandt & I show the answer is a resolute no
@jeppjournal.bsky.social

doi.org/10.1080/1350...

In April 2025, the United States introduced sweeping tariffs on imports from the European Union and the United Kingdom, raising transatlantic tensions and prompting debate over Europe’s response. T...

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Reposted by Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte

Silja Häusermann @siljahausermann.bsky.social · 23d

The call for papers for the first ever EPSS conference 2026 in Belfast is open until November 7th 2025.

epssnet.org/belfast-2026/

@rdassonneville.bsky.social and I will be chairing the section on Electoral and Voting Behavior. We look forward to your submissions and to a fantastic conference!

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Reposted by Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte

Luca Salvadori @lvsalvadori.bsky.social · 1d

How does sexual harassment shape women’s academic careers? At today’s #BellaterraAppliedSeminar, @johannarickne.bsky.social kicks off the series with a fascinating analysis revealing how toxic environments hinder women’s progress and distort meritocracy. @bsebarcelona.bsky.social #GenderEconomics

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Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte @turnbulldugarte.com · 1d

Thank you.

It's definitely a "compound" treatment as the event this is based on is an instance where PP signalled rejection of formal collab. and also described VOX as racist, misogynistic and homophobic.

So not a simple case of rhetorical/policy convergence but rather ostracism.

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Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte @turnbulldugarte.com · 1d

It is indeed. Code is here: osf.io/8rpwf/files

An animated version of the top panel from these.

A game of tariffs: is there demand for tariffs in Europe?

Reposted by Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte

Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte @turnbulldugarte.com · 1d

Tariffs might be the word of 2025.

Given the state of *looks around* we asked: is there demand for tariffs in Europe?

@grahn.bsky.social @katharinalawall.bsky.social @sophiemainz.bsky.social Maria Nordbrandt & I show the answer is a resolute no
@jeppjournal.bsky.social

doi.org/10.1080/1350...

In April 2025, the United States introduced sweeping tariffs on imports from the European Union and the United Kingdom, raising transatlantic tensions and prompting debate over Europe’s response. T...

1 20 39

Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte @turnbulldugarte.com · 1d

1. Camp A wants the right to govern at all costs and can stomach far-right accommodation

2. Camp B wants the right to govern but would prefer a minority gov. or a centrist coalition and is demobilised by thought of far-right in gov.

Since B>A, net effect of accommodation is negative.

Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte @turnbulldugarte.com · 1d

The case of the centre-right, particularly in Spain, is different from the left. Whereas for the left I'm convinced there is a clear negative effect of accommodation, I can see why theoretically there will be asymmetries among centre-right supporters [...]

Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte @turnbulldugarte.com · 1d

2. The consulting class is unlikely to want to correct a prior it's investing significant energy selling to its clients

3. This is not an electoral strategy based on vote-seeking but actually a policy-seeking outcome.

Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte @turnbulldugarte.com · 1d

I think this is a genuine puzzle. I know that @tabouchadi.bsky.social has been asked this frequently of the left too. In the absence of a data-driven answer, the best I can do is theorise.

1. Simple (but wrong) explanations about market transfers are easily translated to strategy [...]

Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte @turnbulldugarte.com · 1d

Yes I don't believe those two explanations are mutually exclusive. An economically competent party on your left and a radical alternative to your right that you then mimic, does not provide you with a fertile ground to win votes

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Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte @turnbulldugarte.com · 1d

The Spanish centre-right is taking a tumble and the far-right is on the rise.

I was lucky enough to present some new causal work on Friday at LSE showing that the PP does better when it signals distinctiveness from VOX.

~1.5K tests, same result. Rejecting far-right benefits centre-right

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Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte @turnbulldugarte.com · 1d

Finally, like I always like to do, some transparency on the process.

This paper was desk rejected twice. It was accepted at JEPP after 1 round of revisions

A game of tariffs: is there demand for tariffs in Europe?

Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte @turnbulldugarte.com · 1d

The paper is available open access here: doi.org/10.1080/1350...

Replication materials here: doi.org/10.7910/DVN/...

In April 2025, the United States introduced sweeping tariffs on imports from the European Union and the United Kingdom, raising transatlantic tensions and prompting debate over Europe’s response. T...

Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte @turnbulldugarte.com · 1d

Our take-home message?

Tariffs — retaliatory or otherwise — are NOT a vote-winning strategy for European politicians.

Leaders seeking “firm” responses to US protectionism might find limited public backing at home. 🗳️🇪🇺

Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte @turnbulldugarte.com · 1d

Across every identifiable subgroup for which we have data — left/right, young/old, man/woman, etc — the pattern is the same.

We find there is NO group that shows majority support for tariffs.

Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte @turnbulldugarte.com · 1d

We pre-registered variation in support for tariffs conditional on levels of (negative) affect towards the US broadly or Trump specifically.

Against our expectation, we find no clear pattern across German and British respondents.

Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte @turnbulldugarte.com · 1d

The results are clear across both countries: Europeans reject tariffs over other protectionist measures

It doesn’t matter if they’re framed as -
• protection for domestic producers
• funding for green policies 🌱
• retaliation against other nations 🇺🇸

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Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte @turnbulldugarte.com · 1d

To find out, we ran two pre-registered conjoint experiments in the aftermath of the tariff news

🇩🇪 Germany – coalition-preference experiment
🇬🇧 United Kingdom – visual candidate-choice experiment

Tariff proposals were tested alongside other policies to simulate realistic political trade-offs.

Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte @turnbulldugarte.com · 1d

In April 2025, on his self-penned 'Liberation Day', the US President launched sweeping tariffs on EU & UK goods rekindling fears of a new trade war 🇺🇸🇪🇺

Polling suggested support for retaliation: but are those attitudes real, or just patriotic reflexes in a heated moment?

A game of tariffs: is there demand for tariffs in Europe?

Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte @turnbulldugarte.com · 1d

Tariffs might be the word of 2025.

Given the state of *looks around* we asked: is there demand for tariffs in Europe?

@grahn.bsky.social @katharinalawall.bsky.social @sophiemainz.bsky.social Maria Nordbrandt & I show the answer is a resolute no
@jeppjournal.bsky.social

doi.org/10.1080/1350...

In April 2025, the United States introduced sweeping tariffs on imports from the European Union and the United Kingdom, raising transatlantic tensions and prompting debate over Europe’s response. T...