Jason McDaniel
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valisjason.bsky.social
Jason McDaniel
@valisjason.bsky.social
890 followers 440 following 55 posts
Political scientist at San Francisco State University
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Reposted by Jason McDaniel
adambonica.bsky.social
Study after study shows campaign ads barely move the needle. So where does money’s real power come from? I ranked the five ways money corrupts politics—from least to most corrosive. What I’ve learned from 15 years of tracking political money:
Money Doesn't Buy Elections. It Does Something Worse.
Campaign ads barely move the needle. The real influence is hiding in plain sight.
open.substack.com
December 6, 2025 at 8:22 PM
Reposted by Jason McDaniel
warrenterra.bsky.social
A version of the Simpsons "Lionel Hutz" newspaper ad modified to use the words in Keith's post. So bright red punctuation modifies otherwise grey text from "KILL THEM ALL" to "KILL THEM ALL?" and from "NO SURVIVORS" to "NO, SURVIVORS!"
December 4, 2025 at 6:22 AM
Reposted by Jason McDaniel
johnpfaff.bsky.social
This would have to be the single biggest partisan shift in democratic history that didn't involve a civil war or the equivalent, right?

Just stunning.

I suppose Whig Party in the US comes closest? But it was more a shift, and wasn't in power at its collapse. And was part of prelude to civil war.
leftiestats.bsky.social Stats for Lefties 🍉🏳️‍⚧️ @leftiestats.bsky.social · 3d
📊 Seat estimate | Labour wipeout

➡️ REF: 360 (+355)
🟢 GRN: 79 (+75)
🟠 LD: 72 (-)
🔵 CON: 48 (-73)
🟡 SNP: 45 (+36)
🟢 PLAID: 7 (+3)
🔴 LAB: 4 (-407)

Based on @findoutnowUK poll, 3 Dec (+/- vs GE24)
December 4, 2025 at 5:07 PM
Reposted by Jason McDaniel
mjsdc.bsky.social
Major decision. In D.C., ICE/CBP can no longer arrest immigrants without a warrant unless they find individualized probable cause of a flight risk.

"Viewing all immigrants potentially subject to removal as criminals is, as a legal matter, plain wrong." www.documentcloud.org/documents/26...
For the reasons discussed below, plaintiffs’ motion to enjoin preliminarily defendants from continuing any policy or practice of conducting warrantless civil immigration arrests in the District without making individualized probable cause determinations as to each arrestee’s risk of escape, as required by 8 U.S.C. § 1357(a)(2), is granted, and a final decision on the requested certification of a class and both subclasses will be reserved for a later time. Defendants are preliminarily enjoined from enforcing their policy of conducting warrantless civil immigration arrests without probable cause to believe that the arrestee is likely to escape before an administrative warrant can be obtained; and only plaintiffs’ proposed Unassessed Escape Risk Class is provisionally certified. 3
December 3, 2025 at 3:29 PM
Reposted by Jason McDaniel
yonahfreemark.com
Downzoning was used by cities around the world to preserve neighborhood aesthetics & protect property values.

New evidence from Chicago in @findingspress.org ⏬ shows downzoning's effects over several decades:
—Massive drop in housing construction
—Higher home prices
—Increased racial segregation
Downzoning Chicago: How Local Land Use Policy Has Reduced Housing Construction and Reinforced Segregation | Published in Findings
By Yonah Freemark, George Kisiel. Downzonings were used by US cities in the postwar period to preserve neighborhood character. These land-use policies were associated with lower housing supply, higher...
findingspress.org
December 1, 2025 at 2:44 PM
Reposted by Jason McDaniel
lareviewofbooks.bsky.social
"At the very least, many residents feel that there are de facto two
Californias."

From our upcoming Security issue, Nevin Kallepalli probes political resentment: https://lareviewofbooks.org/article/the-secessionists-of-shasta-county/
A faded photo of Shasta Resevoir
December 1, 2025 at 4:59 PM
Reposted by Jason McDaniel
daniellaurison.bsky.social
Lower-income people are less likely to vote than higher-income people, across racial groups - and that gap has been growing.

That’s a real problem for the future of US democracy.

It’s not apathy or ignorance - for many, it’s a sense that politics is not for or about them.

In a report out in Jan +
Chart with Turnout on the Y axis & election year (2016, 2020, and 2024) on the X axis. 6 lines, 3 for White, Black, and Hispanic in households making over $100k/year, 3 for the same groups in households making under $30k/year. Overall you can see turnout increasing among higher-income people in all three racial groups, and declining (White and Black) or staying flat (Hispanic) among low-income people; the turnout gap by income is much larger in 2024 than in 2020 or 2016. from 2016 -> 2024: - White $100k turnout goes from 65% to 78% while white under $30k turnout goes from 55% to 49% - Black over $100k turnout goes from 51% to 64% while Black under $30k turnout goes from 48% to 33% - Hispanic over $100k turnout goes from 52% to 67% while Hispanic under $30k turnout stays flat at about 36% (higher in 2020 at 42%). Caption: "Our analysis, Cooperative Election Survey Data, Validated Votes." image of a report cover, with a US flag in the background, and the text "The Political Disconnect: Working-Class and Low-Income People on What Politics Means to Them and How They Might be Mobilized”
December 1, 2025 at 4:11 PM
Reposted by Jason McDaniel
debbiejsr.bsky.social
Today is the official publication day of "Everyday Democracy"!
🧵
December 1, 2025 at 4:38 PM
Reposted by Jason McDaniel
jacksantucci.bsky.social
Interesting article on the proportional representation/housing policy nexus: commonwealthbeacon.org/opinion/how-...
How a 1940 electoral system reform in Cambridge made its 2025 housing breakthrough possible   - CommonWealth Beacon
This is more than just a housing “win.” It’s a triumph for Cambridge’s unique brand of representative democracy—one that balances citywide priorities with fair representation for diverse communities.
commonwealthbeacon.org
November 30, 2025 at 7:52 PM
Reposted by Jason McDaniel
theatlantic.com
Patti Smith spoke with @amyweissmeyer.bsky.social over matcha lattes about her new memoir, “Bread of Angels.” In the book, Smith reflects on her lifetime of reinvention—and the twists in her story that have surprised even her. Read more from their conversation:
Patti Smith’s Family Secrets
Nearing 80, the punk poet reflects on the twists in her story that have surprised even her.
bit.ly
November 30, 2025 at 1:15 AM
Reposted by Jason McDaniel
yonahfreemark.com
What happens when you downzone?

Our new open-access research paper in @findingspress.org investigates effects of decades of downzoning in Chicago.

Findings:
—Downzoned areas added 1/7th of the new units as comparable non-downzoned areas;
—Downzoned areas became more white & were more expensive.
Downzoning Chicago: How Local Land Use Policy Has Reduced Housing Construction and Reinforced Segregation | Published in Findings
By Yonah Freemark, George Kisiel. Downzonings were used by US cities in the postwar period to preserve neighborhood character. These land-use policies were associated with lower housing supply, higher...
findingspress.org
November 26, 2025 at 8:33 PM
Reposted by Jason McDaniel
joshgoddard98.bsky.social
Really excited to share my new article published in @electoralstudies.bsky.social!

1/7
November 26, 2025 at 4:25 PM
Reposted by Jason McDaniel
sarahobolt.bsky.social
🚨 LSE Assistant Professor in Political Science 🚨

We’re hiring a tenure-track assistant professor - any area of empirical political science - to join our wonderful Government Dept @lsegovernment.bsky.social

Any questions, please reach out to me

📣 Please share! 📣

jobs.lse.ac.uk/Vacancies/W/...
November 25, 2025 at 8:38 AM
Reposted by Jason McDaniel
simonwdc.bsky.social
Three things about the Witkoff tapes:

1) It appears Western intelligence services have decided to let Witkoff (and Trump) know they have recordings of their traitorous conversations w/Russia.

2) This Ukraine "deal" was all Witkoff's idea.

3) Congressional leaders should demand he be fired.
November 25, 2025 at 8:40 PM
Reposted by Jason McDaniel
andycraig.bsky.social
Good breakdown from @kimwehle.bsky.social on what to do about the pardon power within the limits of its constitutional hard-coding. @theunpopulist.net
Congress Can Toughen Existing Laws to Expose Trump’s Pardon-for-Sale Racket
The Supreme Court’s immunity ruling gave presidents a free pass for corruption, but Congress can still demand transparency
www.theunpopulist.net
November 25, 2025 at 7:50 PM
Reposted by Jason McDaniel
lopatto.bsky.social
I mean I did have other things to do today but fine www.theverge.com/business/828...
Nvidia’s ‘I’m Not Enron’ memo has people asking a lot of questions already answered by that memo
The Streisand Effect strikes again
www.theverge.com
November 24, 2025 at 9:19 PM
Reposted by Jason McDaniel
mirandayaver.bsky.social
Congrats, Rand Paul, you’ve invented health insurance companies.
atrupar.com Aaron Rupar @atrupar.com · 13d
Rand Paul: "What is the Republican plan for healthcare? My plan would allow for people to buy their insurance through a collective. Basically to buy their insurance through Costco or Sam's Club or Amazon."
November 24, 2025 at 9:22 PM
Reposted by Jason McDaniel
owasow.bsky.social
“Experimental data from largest online survey of Irish Americans reveal learning about African Americans with Irish ancestry reduces prejudice among white Irish Americans who identify with Irish American identity, and effects are mostly driven by Republicans…” www.jasmineenglish.net/uploads/1/4/...
Title page) Title page with centered serif text reading “Close Race: Harnessing Multiracialism to Reduce Racial Prejudice*”. Below is the author name “Jasmine English†” and below that the date “October 31, 2025”, all centered with white background. Screenshot of the paper’s abstract in serif font. The text explains that multiracial populations are the fastest growing in the U.S., and the paper examines how learning about African Americans with Irish ancestry influences racial attitudes among white Irish Americans. It reports experimental findings showing that such information reduces racial prejudice, especially among Republicans and those with higher baseline prejudice, and suggests multiracialism may reduce perceived racial distance. Figure 1: Racial Resentment) Coefficient plot titled “Treatment Effects: Racial Resentment.” The x-axis is Coefficient Estimate with a dashed vertical zero line. Four rows correspond to Treat, TreatLinked, TreatClose, and Treat*Important. The interaction terms show larger negative estimates (around −0.05 to −0.18) than in Figure 2, indicating stronger reductions in racial resentment. Model estimates are color-coded and labeled in a legend at bottom left. Table 7: Reduced Racial Essentialism “I was actually very surprised, it’s a much larger percentage than I realized. I guess I’ve been raised that white people are much more likely to be Irish.” “I was really surprised. I honestly had no idea and just thought, like me, Irish is basically white.” “I am surprised, as I think of typical Irish Americans to be very white.” “I was surprised - I had no idea. Usually when I think “Irish” I think of very fair skin, red hair, and blue eyes (like my mom)” “I was surprised! The term African American makes me think their lineage would be purely African, but I suppose no one really has ancestry tied to one place and one place only.” “I was surprised as I believed that Irish people were overwhelmingly White. It makes me more course to know about how such a high percentage of African Americans came to have Irish ancestry.” “That is surprising to me. I always picture people with more fair skin being Irish.” “I was surprised, but once I thought about it made sense. Eventually all of us will have a little bit of all ancestries in us.” Notes: Open-ended responses that illustrate a shift away from racial essentialism among treated respondents.
November 24, 2025 at 9:52 PM
Reposted by Jason McDaniel
espinsegall.bsky.social
Turns out Originalism didn’t start as a reaction to the Warren Court or Brown but as a tool to argue the 15th Amendment was either invalid or didn’t apply to the states. Here’s the real birth story of the doctrine (discovered by a real historian): www.dorfonlaw.org/2025/11/orig...
Originalism's Racist Birth and Subsequent Death
A few weeks ago at the Federalist Society National Convention,  Judge Patrick Bumatay of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 9th Circuit decla...
www.dorfonlaw.org
November 24, 2025 at 1:59 PM
Reposted by Jason McDaniel
jacksantucci.bsky.social
rosecityreform.substack.com/p/a-roadmap-...
A Roadmap for Success or a Troubled Experiment?
A look at what national observers are saying about Portland’s charter reform
rosecityreform.substack.com
November 24, 2025 at 6:02 PM
Reposted by Jason McDaniel
bhighsmith.bsky.social
🚨We analyzed 138 million geocoded property tax records to quantify how municipal boundaries spatially overlap onto economic segregation in every US metro area—creating disparities in localities’ ability to fund public goods. And we made an interactive map of our results! [1/16]
November 24, 2025 at 4:31 PM
Reposted by Jason McDaniel
kevintmorris.bsky.social
We also have a non-academic version of the paper written up over here at the @brennancenter.org:
www.brennancenter.org/our-work/res...
Growing Racial Disparities in Voter Turnout, 2008–2022
The gap is increasing nationwide, especially in counties that had been subject to federal oversight until the Supreme Court invalidated preclearance in 2013.
www.brennancenter.org
November 24, 2025 at 2:37 PM
Reposted by Jason McDaniel
jonathanbernstein.bsky.social
Haven't read the paper so far but will say (as many have said) that if you make it harder for a group to vote and they keep voting at the same rate...it means that they're paying a cost somehow, whether it's in money or time or aggravation or whatever. And likely also true if they do vote less.
kevintmorris.bsky.social Kevin Morris @kevintmorris.bsky.social · 13d
As we all wait for Callais to come down, our piece showing that Shelby County increased the racial turnout gap in most of the covered parts of the country has cleared the replication check and is incoming at JOP.

Gutting the VRA was bad, actually.
November 24, 2025 at 3:54 AM
Reposted by Jason McDaniel
smotus.bsky.social
Giving MTG a 21 space laser salute
a red light beam is coming out of a black object in the dark .
ALT: a red light beam is coming out of a black object in the dark .
media.tenor.com
November 22, 2025 at 3:10 AM