Especially when you’re young or writing / learning about a new topic

Everyone knows someone like this 😀

It’s fair!

But they treat High-Truss societies as though they were Kwasi-EM.

Thanks - so it’s really about future elections

What’s the implication? Any risk to funds being spent?

Also looking forward to the new reasoning model!

Lol who thought those names were a good idea for their firms?

Not sure if they specifically go in Dec or Jan, but it does seem like the recent frustrating period kicking the can might be over.

100% on all of what you said

Btw I would not invest in a necloud - but this is more about McKinsey doing crap work

Their colocation cost is above Semianalysis numbers too!

On guarantees not guaranteeing full utilisations, I agree, but that’s a risk assumption not a base case as shown by McKinsey.

The depreciation part is off since they are massively overstating the cost of purchasing a b200. Power is also overstated lol

I think the article is objectively correct that GPU prices will fall over time, but they miss the fact that the largest Neoclouds are renting out for 5 years and both Coreweave + Nebius have moved away from just IaaS

Also, their assumptions are off for both depreciation and collocation colocation.

That McKinsey model is very wrong btw.

I quickly checked with Gemini who agrees with me.

The bigger issue here is this is an extremely messy policy. One of the reasons LVNAVs MMFs were created was that in 2008, cash like assets saw their value fall below par. That led to a sharp tightening of regulations to define what cash like is!