Finally, huge thanks to everyone who supported and gave feedback during this project, especially indebted to my supervisors - Anouk Rigterink and @pmkuhn.bsky.social!

Key results:
1️⃣Shifts in territorial control increase in the territory within enclave & mixed settings.

2️⃣Battle-related violence increases only in the mixed setting.

3️⃣These impacts in enclave & mixed settings are stronger in rebel-controlled territories.

🇵🇭 The study uses fine-grained data from the civil war between the New People's Army (NPA) and the Philippine government, 2012–2014.

Here is what is new:
1️⃣A new moderator – spatial configuration of territorial control (homogeneous / enclave / mixed).

2️⃣Studies both shifts in territorial control and battle-related violence.

3️⃣ Introduces a new disaster exposure measure using high-resolution precipitation data 🌧️.

Why do natural disasters escalate conflict in some areas but not others? 🌪️🔫

This paper offers new insight by introducing a new moderator of the spatial configuration of territorial control and finds that the impact of natural disasters varies across these spatial configurations.

🚨Kicking off my first post with a publication!

My first peer-reviewed article - “The Impact of Natural Disasters on the Ongoing Civil War: The Role of Spatial Configuration of Territorial Control” - now out in Journal of Conflict Resolution!

📖Read: doi.org/10.1177/0022...

🧵What is new👇

Why do natural disasters escalate conflict in some areas but not others? 🌪️🔫
This paper offers new insight by introducing a new moderator of the spatial configuration of territorial control and finds that the impact of natural disasters varies across these spatial configurations.