Finally, huge thanks to my wonderful co-authors, @yannquilcaille.bsky.social , Ed Byers and Mia Werning, and my ICI colleages at @iiasa.ac.at 🤓

4) WHY it matters:

Our study highlights that:
🛑 Climate adaptation isn’t enough
✅ Equitable development (as in SSP126) is essential to reduce wildfire harm
🌐 Rich and poor countries alike benefit from resilience + mitigation, but the global South gains most
🔥 Climate justice = development justice

3) What the future holds:

By 2070:
📈 Under SSP370 (fossil-fueled development), global wildfire damages could TRIPLE vs SSP126
⚖️ SSP126 not only reduces total damages — it also lessens inequality in who gets hit
💡 Socioeconomic development can buffer climate-driven damage, but only up to a point

2) Our analyses shows the strongest predictors of wildfire damages are:
1️⃣ Human Vulnerability Index (HVI) — the biggest driver
2️⃣ Vapor Pressure Deficit (drier fire seasons = more damage)
3️⃣ Population density near forests — surprisingly, higher density = lower damages

1) As wildfires worsen with climate change, we need to understand not just where they burn — but who pays the price.
🌍 We combine historical data with SSP projections to analyze wildfire economic damages globally through 2070.

Spoiler: Following a sustainable path (SSP126) saves money 💸.