Zaur Shiriyev
@zaurshiriyev.bsky.social
Nonresident scholar @carnegieendowment.org Scholar-practitioner focused on the Caucasus & beyond. Traveller & story collector
Reposted by Zaur Shiriyev
Have Armenia and Azerbaijan made any more progress towards peace since the White House summit in August? My conversation with @zaurshiriyev.bsky.social for @ceip-politika.bsky.social covers that and more! Check it out now: youtu.be/N3TXiu7LM2s?...
A Geopolitical Shift in the South Caucasus and the Future of TRIPP | Zaur Shiriyev
YouTube video by Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center
youtu.be
October 30, 2025 at 12:22 PM
Have Armenia and Azerbaijan made any more progress towards peace since the White House summit in August? My conversation with @zaurshiriyev.bsky.social for @ceip-politika.bsky.social covers that and more! Check it out now: youtu.be/N3TXiu7LM2s?...
Reposted by Zaur Shiriyev
Does the tail wag the dog? Also, who's the dog?
@zaurshiriyev.bsky.social outlined Baku-Ankara ties – and much more – as Azerbaijan and Armenia work towards a peace deal.
Also covered: transit corridors, regional implications and the Organization of Turkic States.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=yxNK...
@zaurshiriyev.bsky.social outlined Baku-Ankara ties – and much more – as Azerbaijan and Armenia work towards a peace deal.
Also covered: transit corridors, regional implications and the Organization of Turkic States.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=yxNK...
October 8, 2025 at 5:50 AM
Does the tail wag the dog? Also, who's the dog?
@zaurshiriyev.bsky.social outlined Baku-Ankara ties – and much more – as Azerbaijan and Armenia work towards a peace deal.
Also covered: transit corridors, regional implications and the Organization of Turkic States.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=yxNK...
@zaurshiriyev.bsky.social outlined Baku-Ankara ties – and much more – as Azerbaijan and Armenia work towards a peace deal.
Also covered: transit corridors, regional implications and the Organization of Turkic States.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=yxNK...
Reposted by Zaur Shiriyev
🎙️ Live webcast today!
@zaurshiriyev.bsky.social, a nonresident scholar at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, joins us to discuss the Azerbaijan-Armenia peace talks, Zangezur corridor and Organization of Turkic States.
Livestream starts at 1100 UTC / 1400 TRT:
@zaurshiriyev.bsky.social, a nonresident scholar at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, joins us to discuss the Azerbaijan-Armenia peace talks, Zangezur corridor and Organization of Turkic States.
Livestream starts at 1100 UTC / 1400 TRT:
LIVE SOON: How Azerbaijan-Armenia peace talks might reshape the region with Zaur Shiriyev
Starting Oct 7 at 7:00 AM EDT
open.substack.com
October 7, 2025 at 7:12 AM
🎙️ Live webcast today!
@zaurshiriyev.bsky.social, a nonresident scholar at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, joins us to discuss the Azerbaijan-Armenia peace talks, Zangezur corridor and Organization of Turkic States.
Livestream starts at 1100 UTC / 1400 TRT:
@zaurshiriyev.bsky.social, a nonresident scholar at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, joins us to discuss the Azerbaijan-Armenia peace talks, Zangezur corridor and Organization of Turkic States.
Livestream starts at 1100 UTC / 1400 TRT:
Reposted by Zaur Shiriyev
Just published, my piece on the U.S. Armenia-Azerbaijan deal and its prospects. There is a lot of hard work still to be done, I argue, but the shared coincidence of interests that neither country wants Russia as a guarantor has been transformative. www.foreignaffairs.com/armenia/unli...
An Unlikely Road to Peace in the South Caucasus
How common cause against Russia enabled an American deal.
www.foreignaffairs.com
September 22, 2025 at 8:33 AM
Just published, my piece on the U.S. Armenia-Azerbaijan deal and its prospects. There is a lot of hard work still to be done, I argue, but the shared coincidence of interests that neither country wants Russia as a guarantor has been transformative. www.foreignaffairs.com/armenia/unli...
Reposted by Zaur Shiriyev
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan & Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev’s White House summit may transform the South Caucasus’ future, with a peace deal announcement. Philip Gamaghelyan & @zaurshiriyev.bsky.social warn that peace remains fragile: carnegieendowment.org/emissary/202...
As They Edge Toward Peace, Armenia and Azerbaijan Must Resist Old Habits
Whether the Washington summit marks a breakthrough or distraction will depend on both leaders’ commitment to finish what they started.
carnegieendowment.org
August 7, 2025 at 9:11 PM
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan & Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev’s White House summit may transform the South Caucasus’ future, with a peace deal announcement. Philip Gamaghelyan & @zaurshiriyev.bsky.social warn that peace remains fragile: carnegieendowment.org/emissary/202...
Reposted by Zaur Shiriyev
My article on how the Philharmonic Orchestra in #Odesa/#Odessa has played on through all the travails of wartime, and the story of its amazing American conductor, Hobart Earle, who has been with them since 1991.
In today’s FT magazine (sorry, behind a paywall). www.ft.com/content/9dc6...
In today’s FT magazine (sorry, behind a paywall). www.ft.com/content/9dc6...
How Odesa’s Philharmonic Orchestra played on through the war
A Ukrainian orchestra and their American conductor withstood Russian missiles to bring music to the city
www.ft.com
July 12, 2025 at 12:38 PM
My article on how the Philharmonic Orchestra in #Odesa/#Odessa has played on through all the travails of wartime, and the story of its amazing American conductor, Hobart Earle, who has been with them since 1991.
In today’s FT magazine (sorry, behind a paywall). www.ft.com/content/9dc6...
In today’s FT magazine (sorry, behind a paywall). www.ft.com/content/9dc6...
Shared a few thoughts (for what they're worth) on the Russia–Azerbaijan tensions:
www.nytimes.com/2025/07/02/w...
www.nytimes.com/2025/07/02/w...
Russia-Azerbaijan Tensions Soar, Threatening Moscow’s Influence
www.nytimes.com
July 2, 2025 at 4:10 PM
Shared a few thoughts (for what they're worth) on the Russia–Azerbaijan tensions:
www.nytimes.com/2025/07/02/w...
www.nytimes.com/2025/07/02/w...
Reposted by Zaur Shiriyev
A formal peace agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia would put a definitive end to a decades-long conflict—and help prevent Russia from reasserting itself in the South Caucasus, argues @zaurshiriyev.bsky.social.
The Precarious Power of Azerbaijan
A delayed peace with Armenia endangers a new regional order.
www.foreignaffairs.com
June 11, 2025 at 6:34 PM
A formal peace agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia would put a definitive end to a decades-long conflict—and help prevent Russia from reasserting itself in the South Caucasus, argues @zaurshiriyev.bsky.social.
Reposted by Zaur Shiriyev
www.foreignaffairs.com/azerbaijan/p... Zaur's piece on Azerbaijan is excellent, authoritative, comprehensive and asks the hard questions about the country's future @zaurshiriyev.bsky.social
The Precarious Power of Azerbaijan
A delayed peace with Armenia endangers a new regional order.
www.foreignaffairs.com
May 27, 2025 at 9:48 AM
www.foreignaffairs.com/azerbaijan/p... Zaur's piece on Azerbaijan is excellent, authoritative, comprehensive and asks the hard questions about the country's future @zaurshiriyev.bsky.social
Reposted by Zaur Shiriyev
A formal peace agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia would cement a “new order in the South Caucasus,” writes @zaurshiriyev.bsky.social. “Yet it is unclear whether Azerbaijan will embrace the opportunity.”
The Precarious Power of Azerbaijan
A delayed peace with Armenia endangers a new regional order.
www.foreignaffairs.com
May 26, 2025 at 2:54 PM
A formal peace agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia would cement a “new order in the South Caucasus,” writes @zaurshiriyev.bsky.social. “Yet it is unclear whether Azerbaijan will embrace the opportunity.”
In my new piece for Strategic Europe, I look at how the EU and Turkey could work together in the South Caucasus, and what assumptions might need to change to make that possible: carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...
Why the EU Needs Turkey in the South Caucasus
As the South Caucasus undergoes a strategic realignment, the EU and Turkey have an opportunity to recalibrate their engagement. Converging interests in connectivity, stability, and regional integratio...
carnegieendowment.org
May 22, 2025 at 2:35 PM
In my new piece for Strategic Europe, I look at how the EU and Turkey could work together in the South Caucasus, and what assumptions might need to change to make that possible: carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...
Reposted by Zaur Shiriyev
As the South Caucasus undergoes a strategic realignment, the EU & Turkey have an opportunity to recalibrate their engagement.
Converging interests might foster cooperation if long-standing assumptions are set aside, writes @zaurshiriyev.bsky.social.
carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...
Converging interests might foster cooperation if long-standing assumptions are set aside, writes @zaurshiriyev.bsky.social.
carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...
Why the EU Needs Turkey in the South Caucasus
As the South Caucasus undergoes a strategic realignment, the EU and Turkey have an opportunity to recalibrate their engagement. Converging interests in connectivity, stability, and regional integratio...
carnegieendowment.org
May 22, 2025 at 12:24 PM
As the South Caucasus undergoes a strategic realignment, the EU & Turkey have an opportunity to recalibrate their engagement.
Converging interests might foster cooperation if long-standing assumptions are set aside, writes @zaurshiriyev.bsky.social.
carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...
Converging interests might foster cooperation if long-standing assumptions are set aside, writes @zaurshiriyev.bsky.social.
carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...
Rewarding Russian aggression in Ukraine would send shockwaves across Eurasia. For three years, many countries in its former periphery have benefited from Moscow’s weakness. A bad deal now could reverse that—and embolden Russia.
My latest:
🔗 carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...
My latest:
🔗 carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...
Rewarding Russian Aggression Would Send Shockwaves Across Eurasia
From Georgia to Kazakhstan, all eyes are on the negotiations to end the war in Ukraine—and the outcome will determine Moscow’s capacity to project influence.
carnegieendowment.org
April 11, 2025 at 9:49 AM
Rewarding Russian aggression in Ukraine would send shockwaves across Eurasia. For three years, many countries in its former periphery have benefited from Moscow’s weakness. A bad deal now could reverse that—and embolden Russia.
My latest:
🔗 carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...
My latest:
🔗 carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...
Reposted by Zaur Shiriyev
So much going on in the world that this commentary didn't get enough attention @zaurshiriyev.bsky.social on the importance of seizing the moment for an Armenia-Azerbaijan peace deal "Without peace, Baku risks mistaking short-term leverage for lasting influence." carnegieendowment.org/emissary/202...
In the Armenia-Azerbaijan Peace Deal, Russia May Try to Play Spoiler
Moscow’s distraction and weakening regional grip allowed the peace negotiations to begin. But that may not last.
carnegieendowment.org
April 4, 2025 at 9:42 AM
So much going on in the world that this commentary didn't get enough attention @zaurshiriyev.bsky.social on the importance of seizing the moment for an Armenia-Azerbaijan peace deal "Without peace, Baku risks mistaking short-term leverage for lasting influence." carnegieendowment.org/emissary/202...
Reposted by Zaur Shiriyev
Will proposed steps to tariff Russian oil exports help to stop the war? Tune in to this deep dissection of the Russian energy sector, by my colleague Sergey Vakulenko and Elizaveta Fokht on @ceip-politika.bsky.social English-language YouTube channel.
youtu.be/XW-SP0SBiYY?...
youtu.be/XW-SP0SBiYY?...
Are Trump’s Threats Against Russian Oil Realistic & Can the Kremlin Save Gazprom? | Sergey Vakulenko
YouTube video by Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center
youtu.be
April 2, 2025 at 9:48 AM
Will proposed steps to tariff Russian oil exports help to stop the war? Tune in to this deep dissection of the Russian energy sector, by my colleague Sergey Vakulenko and Elizaveta Fokht on @ceip-politika.bsky.social English-language YouTube channel.
youtu.be/XW-SP0SBiYY?...
youtu.be/XW-SP0SBiYY?...
The text of the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace deal is finalized — but Russia may not want it to succeed. I explore why in my latest commentary:
carnegieendowment.org/emissary/202...
carnegieendowment.org/emissary/202...
In the Armenia-Azerbaijan Peace Deal, Russia May Try to Play Spoiler
Moscow’s distraction and weakening regional grip allowed the peace negotiations to begin. But that may not last.
carnegieendowment.org
March 28, 2025 at 5:46 PM
The text of the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace deal is finalized — but Russia may not want it to succeed. I explore why in my latest commentary:
carnegieendowment.org/emissary/202...
carnegieendowment.org/emissary/202...
Reposted by Zaur Shiriyev
Russia wading in again on the "Zangezur Corridor"/Syunik transit route across Armenia to Azerbaijan. Zakharova says the ARM-AZ-RUS working group has to be revived, talks of the "destructive influence of the West." A sign that Moscow is worried about losing leverage here to EU tass.ru/ekonomika/23...
Захарова: Запад тормозит разблокирование транспортных коммуникаций на Южном Кавказе
Официальный представитель МИД РФ отметила, что позиция Армении тоже нередко вызывает вопросы
tass.ru
March 28, 2025 at 7:39 AM
Russia wading in again on the "Zangezur Corridor"/Syunik transit route across Armenia to Azerbaijan. Zakharova says the ARM-AZ-RUS working group has to be revived, talks of the "destructive influence of the West." A sign that Moscow is worried about losing leverage here to EU tass.ru/ekonomika/23...
My long essay on how Azerbaijan reclaimed its territories—what others shouldn’t try to copy, and what comes next for the South Caucasus.
Not a “recipe”—just the outcome of a long game.
gfsis.org/wp-content/u...
Not a “recipe”—just the outcome of a long game.
gfsis.org/wp-content/u...
gfsis.org
March 21, 2025 at 3:36 PM
My long essay on how Azerbaijan reclaimed its territories—what others shouldn’t try to copy, and what comes next for the South Caucasus.
Not a “recipe”—just the outcome of a long game.
gfsis.org/wp-content/u...
Not a “recipe”—just the outcome of a long game.
gfsis.org/wp-content/u...
Reposted by Zaur Shiriyev
Lots of good food for thought in @zaurshiriyev.bsky.social 's deep essay here on the reasons for Azerbaijan's success in the conflict with Armenia in recent years--and the reasons why it is important for Baku to cut a deal.
gfsis.org/wp-content/u...
gfsis.org/wp-content/u...
gfsis.org
March 21, 2025 at 2:57 PM
Lots of good food for thought in @zaurshiriyev.bsky.social 's deep essay here on the reasons for Azerbaijan's success in the conflict with Armenia in recent years--and the reasons why it is important for Baku to cut a deal.
gfsis.org/wp-content/u...
gfsis.org/wp-content/u...
Reposted by Zaur Shiriyev
My piece on the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace agreement -- a big step forward but a long way to go
carnegieendowment.org/emissary/202...
carnegieendowment.org/emissary/202...
Armenia and Azerbaijan’s Major Step Forward
After decades of conflict, the two moved closer to a peace deal. But outside support, especially from Ankara, is critical to maintain momentum.
carnegieendowment.org
March 18, 2025 at 10:36 AM
My piece on the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace agreement -- a big step forward but a long way to go
carnegieendowment.org/emissary/202...
carnegieendowment.org/emissary/202...
Azerbaijan-Russia relations are evolving, and I shared my insights on the shifting dynamics—please check it out here: caucasuswatch.de/en/interview...
Zaur Shiriyev: The Lasting Effect of Flight 8243 on Baku’s Relationship to Moscow
To understand the implications of the Azerbaijani Airlines airplane crash on December 25, 2024, for Russian-Azerbaijani relations, we turn to Dr. Zaur Shiriyev, a nonresident scholar at the Carnegie R...
caucasuswatch.de
February 6, 2025 at 4:04 AM
Azerbaijan-Russia relations are evolving, and I shared my insights on the shifting dynamics—please check it out here: caucasuswatch.de/en/interview...
Reposted by Zaur Shiriyev
On Akram Aylisli's wonderful early novel from the 1960s, People and Trees, now in English for the first time in Katherine Young's beautiful translation. A village, where the men are lost to the war, the women are in charge, modernity has arrived and a boy grows up www.the-tls.co.uk/literature/f...
An Azerbaijani author of fierce political courage and local loyalty
People and Trees is a pastoral set in Soviet Azerbaijan in the 1940s. If that sounds dull, then do not be deceived: Akram Aylisli’s novel is anything but.
www.the-tls.co.uk
January 21, 2025 at 5:50 PM
On Akram Aylisli's wonderful early novel from the 1960s, People and Trees, now in English for the first time in Katherine Young's beautiful translation. A village, where the men are lost to the war, the women are in charge, modernity has arrived and a boy grows up www.the-tls.co.uk/literature/f...
I’ve started a Telegram channel, Beyond the Divide, where I share insights on politics, culture, economics, and literature, with a focus on the Caucasus, Türkiye, and Central Asia. Join here: t.me/beyondthediv...
For more, check out my Carnegie colleagues’ Telegram channels: t.me/addlist/l2mF...
For more, check out my Carnegie colleagues’ Telegram channels: t.me/addlist/l2mF...
Beyond the Divide
Reflections on the Caucasus, Türkiye, and Central Asia—politics, culture, and literature, through the lens of Zaur Shiriyev, shared in English and Azerbaijani.
t.me
January 29, 2025 at 1:39 PM
I’ve started a Telegram channel, Beyond the Divide, where I share insights on politics, culture, economics, and literature, with a focus on the Caucasus, Türkiye, and Central Asia. Join here: t.me/beyondthediv...
For more, check out my Carnegie colleagues’ Telegram channels: t.me/addlist/l2mF...
For more, check out my Carnegie colleagues’ Telegram channels: t.me/addlist/l2mF...
Mr. Putin’s statement “is a textbook example of a non-apology apology,” Mr. Shiriyev said in an email interview. “There was no direct acceptance of responsibility, no offer of compensation, and no commitment to hold those responsible accountable.” www.nytimes.com/2024/12/28/w...
Putin Apologizes but Does Not Take Responsibility for Azerbaijani Plane Crash
President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia told the Azerbaijani leader, Ilham Aliyev, in a phone call, “that the tragic incident took place in Russian airspace.”
www.nytimes.com
December 29, 2024 at 11:33 AM
Mr. Putin’s statement “is a textbook example of a non-apology apology,” Mr. Shiriyev said in an email interview. “There was no direct acceptance of responsibility, no offer of compensation, and no commitment to hold those responsible accountable.” www.nytimes.com/2024/12/28/w...
Quoted in @wsj.com on the plane crash: “Baku’s expectation is not only an apology but also an explanation why the pilots’ request to land was denied and why their GPS was jammed over the Caspian Sea—both of which could have saved the plane and its passengers.”
www.wsj.com/world/probe-...
Probe Points to Russian Air Defenses Causing Azerbaijan Airlines Crash
The plane was diverted from Russia and had its GPS jammed before crashing in Kazakhstan, killing 38.
www.wsj.com
December 27, 2024 at 7:42 AM
Quoted in @wsj.com on the plane crash: “Baku’s expectation is not only an apology but also an explanation why the pilots’ request to land was denied and why their GPS was jammed over the Caspian Sea—both of which could have saved the plane and its passengers.”
www.wsj.com/world/probe-...