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Il Pomodoro

@dabenner.bsky.social

3K followers 660 following 18K posts

Dad, cyclist, pianist, lawyer

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Il Pomodoro @dabenner.bsky.social · 1m

I was arguing it was mostly social media and vibes but interest rates still being high mattered on the margin. Will decided to screenshot after i detached quote (don't need to deal with the loons he attracts). This is how we handle 93% agreement apparently.

Il Pomodoro @dabenner.bsky.social · 3m

It also amuses me to do that. Fortunately I haven't had to deal with the people Will drives to psychosis in my mentions - so far. I saw this (after folding laundry) because Josh Marshall is currently making similar arguments to wit just accept 93% agreement and move on with your life.

Il Pomodoro @dabenner.bsky.social · 4m

I detached the quote because I do not accept the practice of quote tweeting mid discussion, but evidently this point was so important to make in this exact manner to go back and screenshot.

Will Stancil @whstancil.bsky.social · 1h

When people claim to be voting based on some problem that doesn’t exist, be it food price inflation, crime increases, or immigrant caravans, “they’re lying and/or misinformed” IS the most parsimonious explanation.

“They’re expressing sublimated anger over something else” is much more convoluted.

Il Pomodoro @dabenner.bsky.social · 8m

You know who would actually be a good college coach? Nick Sirianni.

Il Pomodoro @dabenner.bsky.social · 9m

James do you like crabs?

Il Pomodoro @dabenner.bsky.social · 10m

I knew when Franklin didn't go for 2 to win the game against Oregon, they would lose the game. I did not expect the wheels to fall off entirely for the next two weeks.

Il Pomodoro @dabenner.bsky.social · 19m

He looks old

Il Pomodoro @dabenner.bsky.social · 59m

They got Jalen on a team friendly deal but top pick is a bit overstated.

Il Pomodoro @dabenner.bsky.social · 1h

The fact they barred nationwide injunctions while denying every stay under the sun is the most thumb on the scale thing imaginable. All DOJ lawyers have to do is run the clock.

Il Pomodoro @dabenner.bsky.social · 1h

This is the entire crux of the criticism. If it's housekeeping stuff pending rulings on the merits, it's entirely left to district court discretion. If they can't write a long merits opinion, stay out of it.

Aaron Rupar @atrupar.com · 2h

Amy Coney Barrett defends heavy use of the shadow docket: "If we wrote a long opinion, it might give the impression that we have finally resolved the issue, and in none of these cases have we finally resolved the issue."

Il Pomodoro @dabenner.bsky.social · 1h

This is the entire crux of the criticism. If it's housekeeping stuff pending rulings on the merits, it's entirely left to district court discretion. If they can't write a long merits opinion, stay out of it.

Aaron Rupar @atrupar.com · 2h

Amy Coney Barrett defends heavy use of the shadow docket: "If we wrote a long opinion, it might give the impression that we have finally resolved the issue, and in none of these cases have we finally resolved the issue."

Il Pomodoro @dabenner.bsky.social · 1h

The point I readied earlier is it's far more common for people to ignore inflation to blame a pet peeve. But I do think issues like specific global macro trends and prez too old probably less salient next time.

Il Pomodoro @dabenner.bsky.social · 1h

I don't mean scammy as in theft per se I mean as highly aggravating to deal with. Being nickeld and dimed with junk fees etc

Il Pomodoro @dabenner.bsky.social · 1h

Tighter consumer credit was bad for younger voters and pushed them into very scammy alternatives

Il Pomodoro @dabenner.bsky.social · 1h

Interest would eat my entire home equity if I tried to move closer to my new job in fact

Il Pomodoro @dabenner.bsky.social · 1h

I think both points Cai makes are correct here, including about the personalization.

Il Pomodoro @dabenner.bsky.social · 1h

Yes the parsimonious explanation is everyone was lying. You're mostly right but this specific type of inflation mattered on the margin is obviously too complex for you to understand.

Il Pomodoro @dabenner.bsky.social · 2h

Man I mostly agree with you, but the more likely explanation is voters don't understand the relationship between prices and interest rates and feel cereal prices are safe to talk about. Criticially the end of ZIRP also made our tech overlords go insane.

Il Pomodoro @dabenner.bsky.social · 2h

Media reported eggs and stuff, but when you note people didn't complain when they were higher, what *was* higher when they did complain? You can think of the notifications for auto debit as Posts if it helps.

Il Pomodoro @dabenner.bsky.social · 2h

The other thing is if you finance a car in 2023 (ahem) when inflation rates start falling your note does not go down.

Il Pomodoro @dabenner.bsky.social · 2h

Turnout falling off among more credit exposed people. The specific items people complained about the most, housing and cars, typically financed. Why do people not like paying more for credit despite no increase of personal risk of default, or even a decrease, answers itself.

Il Pomodoro @dabenner.bsky.social · 2h

But also it's more common to see bad actors ignoring inflation to blame it on things that were objectively even less important to marginal voters like trans rights.

Il Pomodoro @dabenner.bsky.social · 2h

Typical and marginal voters aren't the same, and what they were mad about was higher interest rates to curb inflation. It's evident in who was less motivated. It was the largest, not only factor, but what you are right about it was the least controllable one so it does function as an excuse.

Il Pomodoro @dabenner.bsky.social · 2h

Their inner life is what makes them selfish Tyler

Il Pomodoro @dabenner.bsky.social · 2h

I shared it for the reasons I posted about it. If you don't want to read it, move on.

Il Pomodoro @dabenner.bsky.social · 2h

Don't come into my mentions and tell me to fuck myself. This is my feed, I will share whatever i want whenever I want to share it.