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Dan Oehm

Dan Oehm

@danoehm.bsky.social

640 followers 1.2K following 580 posts

🔔 Statistician 🫶 #Rstats 📈 #Dataviz 🏃‍♂️ Trail runner 🤘 Metalhead ❤️ Dad 🔥 #survivor data analyst 🌏 Canberran 🌿 Vego Survivor Stats db: https://survivorstatsdb.com/ Ramblings: https://gradientdescending.com/

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Dan Oehm @danoehm.bsky.social · Jan 4

I guess I'm over here as well and hoping it can achieve the critical mass needed to sustain people's interest.

Most people will know me for my data viz, R, and stats stuff. I'm also a runner, mountain biker, and a Dad. I mostly fit R around those other things!

Anyway, hi all 👋

Dan Oehm @danoehm.bsky.social · 3h

Yep, that's me! Thank you 🙏, it's always great to hear from people who use it 🙂

Dan Oehm @danoehm.bsky.social · 3h

💯

Dan Oehm @danoehm.bsky.social · 3h

I know! There was no discussion about eggs, it jumped straight to let's kill 'em and eat 'em!! Not sure if they plan to eat the hens as well, I'll have to keep an eye on how many are left, but I hope they make the right decision and not do that!

Dan Oehm @danoehm.bsky.social · 4h

I'm pretty sure Jeff said one rooster and three egg laying hens and they ate the rooster. Will watch again to confirm though!

Dan Oehm @danoehm.bsky.social · 5h

- The eggs are eaten the morning of merge at Kele.
- The eggs are evenly shared amongst everyone in the tribe

Happy to change the assumptions on advice from experts on the subject!

Dan Oehm @danoehm.bsky.social · 5h

- The chickens lay one egg each morning (Source: Direct observation from my own chickens; Google)
- Eggs are consumed in the morning
- The chickens were won on day 10 (as per S49), merge at day 14, and final 5 at day 24
- The tribe loses one more person before merge.

Dan Oehm @danoehm.bsky.social · 5h

About the same as 600g of cooked rice 🍚

Assumptions:
- A medium-sized Welsummer chicken is 2250g, 75% of it’s live weight (1688g) once slaughtered (Source: Google)
- An average egg has 7g of protein and 82 calories (Source: Google)

Dan Oehm @danoehm.bsky.social · 5h

In case anyone was wondering, if Kele farm the chicken eggs, bring the chickens to merge and agree to eat them at f5, then a Kele member in the f5 will consume 778 more calories than simply eating one chicken per day and sharing with the tribe from the time they were won 🥚🥚🥚

#Survivor49

Dan Oehm @danoehm.bsky.social · 2d

Yeah, at ep5, high CPH can mean either making it deep in the game or flying too close to the sun.

Statistically, after ep5, a player with a CPH 2x higher than expected is about 30% more likely to make the final tribal council than another player in the middle.

Dan Oehm @danoehm.bsky.social · 2d

#Survivor49 confessionals per hr (CPH)

Top 10:
1. Yam Yam 2.7x 🏆
2. Carolyn 2.4x ⭐
3. Savannah 2.4x 👈👀👈
4. Emily 1.9x
5. Kenzie 1.7x 🏆
6. Charlie 1.7x ⭐
7. Jesse 1.7x
8. Sam 1.6x ⭐
9. Sai 1.6x
10. Elie 1.6x

Key:
🏆 Winner
⭐ Finalist
Nx more CPH than expected

Dan Oehm @danoehm.bsky.social · 2d

Is it causal? Maybe. Those two things changed at the same time so can't be certain if one is more influential than the other.

But at the end of the day, there's an association that can be measured from the data, and I find that pretty cool.

Dan Oehm @danoehm.bsky.social · 2d

I wouldn't call this conclusive, but it appears that 3 starting tribes and more combined immunity reward challenges increase the chances that some players will avoid Tribal Council in the first 5 episodes, potentially to merge.

Dan Oehm @danoehm.bsky.social · 2d

Finally, I fit a model to see if there was an association between the number of combined immunity reward challenges and the number of players who had not attended tribal in 5 episodes, while controlling for the number of starting tribes.

Both variables are significant‼️

Dan Oehm @danoehm.bsky.social · 2d

So, I charted how many combined immunity and reward challenges there have been.

The trend looks pretty familiar to me! There's definitely an increasing trend.

The two big spikes are Redemption Island seasons to put them aside.

Dan Oehm @danoehm.bsky.social · 2d

I had a theory (and others as well listening to the discourse) that only having combined immunity and reward challenges creates a compounding effect and increases the likelihood of disaster tribes, and consequently more likely some players won't go to Tribal.

Dan Oehm @danoehm.bsky.social · 2d

The chart shows how many players have not attended Tribal Council in the first 5 episodes of the season.

Notice a trend?

8/11 seasons had 3 starting tribes and there's clearly been a change since S25

What may have changed?

Dan Oehm @danoehm.bsky.social · 2d

The table shows that 6/12 players are yet to go to Tribal Council at all. Half the cast haven't had the chance to play the game yet.

imo It's much more interesting if everyone has gone to Tribal at least once, lines have been drawn and alliances formed before the merge.

And check this out...

Dan Oehm @danoehm.bsky.social · 2d

Today's #Survivor rabbit hole

After #Survivor49 ep 5, two things stood out:
1. Every player left in the game that has gone to tribal council has a 100% successful boot % (assuming ep4 was a split vote).
2. Half the players haven't been to Tribal Council

What I found out about 2 is kind of cool 👇 🧵

Dan Oehm @danoehm.bsky.social · 6d

😂

Yeah, I had a feeling that we would see a divergence of players we grow to love and players we love to hate. But villains aren't cast anymore so we don't really see that. Otherwise it's a pretty clear trend.

Dan Oehm @danoehm.bsky.social · 6d

Polls are interesting because they're more of a reflection of who responded, rather than what they say about the subject, which makes the age split even more interesting.

There's a lot more to dive into here, but in the meantime, I may be in the market for a brown leather waistcoat.

Dan Oehm @danoehm.bsky.social · 6d

Sol!

He's a huge outlier, and I think we all know why. It's that fine leather waistcoat!

Dan Oehm @danoehm.bsky.social · 6d

One thing stood out to me, though. There were not a lot of older players above the line.

If I fit a line for players over 40 it's basically flat showing there's no relationship and very different from those 18-39.

Except for one player...

Dan Oehm @danoehm.bsky.social · 6d

Kaleb!

Here's a list of the top 10 after accounting for confessionals:

1. Kaleb
2. Sol
3. Frannie
4. Carolyn
5. Kamilla
6. Kellie
7. Thomas
8. Dee
9. Star
10. Emily

(There are a few assumptions at play here, but I won't bore you)

Dan Oehm @danoehm.bsky.social · 6d

Let's zoom in on Love. The positive trend is pretty strong so that's a tick for the first hypothesis.

But, I was wrong about Star given where she sits on the chart (8, 45%).

In that case, who is the most loved player after accounting for confessionals?

Dan Oehm @danoehm.bsky.social · 6d

I've plotted each player - total confessional time x rating

- Love has a strong positive relationship
- Like is flat, therefore no relationship
- Neutral is a negative relationship - the more we see someone, the more we'll have an opinion of them. Makes sense.
- Not a Fan is slightly negative