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Dan Oehm

@danoehm.bsky.social

640 followers 1.2K following 570 posts

🔔 Statistician 🫶 #Rstats 📈 #Dataviz 🏃‍♂️ Trail runner 🤘 Metalhead ❤️ Dad 🔥 #survivor data analyst 🌏 Canberran Survivor Stats db: https://survivorstatsdb.com/ Ramblings: https://gradientdescending.com/

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Dan Oehm @danoehm.bsky.social · Jan 4

I guess I'm over here as well and hoping it can achieve the critical mass needed to sustain people's interest.

Most people will know me for my data viz, R, and stats stuff. I'm also a runner, mountain biker, and a Dad. I mostly fit R around those other things!

Anyway, hi all 👋

Dan Oehm @danoehm.bsky.social · 1d

Yeah, at ep5, high CPH can mean either making it deep in the game or flying too close to the sun.

Statistically, after ep5, a player with a CPH 2x higher than expected is about 30% more likely to make the final tribal council than another player in the middle.

Dan Oehm @danoehm.bsky.social · 2d

#Survivor49 confessionals per hr (CPH)

Top 10:
1. Yam Yam 2.7x 🏆
2. Carolyn 2.4x ⭐
3. Savannah 2.4x 👈👀👈
4. Emily 1.9x
5. Kenzie 1.7x 🏆
6. Charlie 1.7x ⭐
7. Jesse 1.7x
8. Sam 1.6x ⭐
9. Sai 1.6x
10. Elie 1.6x

Key:
🏆 Winner
⭐ Finalist
Nx more CPH than expected

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Dan Oehm @danoehm.bsky.social · 2d

Is it causal? Maybe. Those two things changed at the same time so can't be certain if one is more influential than the other.

But at the end of the day, there's an association that can be measured from the data, and I find that pretty cool.

Dan Oehm @danoehm.bsky.social · 2d

I wouldn't call this conclusive, but it appears that 3 starting tribes and more combined immunity reward challenges increase the chances that some players will avoid Tribal Council in the first 5 episodes, potentially to merge.

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Dan Oehm @danoehm.bsky.social · 2d

Finally, I fit a model to see if there was an association between the number of combined immunity reward challenges and the number of players who had not attended tribal in 5 episodes, while controlling for the number of starting tribes.

Both variables are significant‼️

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Dan Oehm @danoehm.bsky.social · 2d

So, I charted how many combined immunity and reward challenges there have been.

The trend looks pretty familiar to me! There's definitely an increasing trend.

The two big spikes are Redemption Island seasons to put them aside.

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Dan Oehm @danoehm.bsky.social · 2d

I had a theory (and others as well listening to the discourse) that only having combined immunity and reward challenges creates a compounding effect and increases the likelihood of disaster tribes, and consequently more likely some players won't go to Tribal.

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Dan Oehm @danoehm.bsky.social · 2d

The chart shows how many players have not attended Tribal Council in the first 5 episodes of the season.

Notice a trend?

8/11 seasons had 3 starting tribes and there's clearly been a change since S25

What may have changed?

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Dan Oehm @danoehm.bsky.social · 2d

The table shows that 6/12 players are yet to go to Tribal Council at all. Half the cast haven't had the chance to play the game yet.

imo It's much more interesting if everyone has gone to Tribal at least once, lines have been drawn and alliances formed before the merge.

And check this out...

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Dan Oehm @danoehm.bsky.social · 2d

Today's #Survivor rabbit hole

After #Survivor49 ep 5, two things stood out:
1. Every player left in the game that has gone to tribal council has a 100% successful boot % (assuming ep4 was a split vote).
2. Half the players haven't been to Tribal Council

What I found out about 2 is kind of cool 👇 🧵