Dan Oehm
@danoehm.bsky.social
🔔 Statistician 🫶 #Rstats 📈 #Dataviz 🏃♂️ Trail runner 🤘 Metalhead ❤️ Dad 🔥 #survivor 🌏 Canberran 🌿 Vego
Survivor Stats db: https://survivorstatsdb.com/
Ramblings: https://gradientdescending.com/
Survivor Stats db: https://survivorstatsdb.com/
Ramblings: https://gradientdescending.com/
Tree is up. Countdown begins 🎄
November 30, 2025 at 10:00 AM
Tree is up. Countdown begins 🎄
I also have a very simple model to predict how many jury votes the finalist will receive based on votes with and votes for the juror. It has been correct for 6 out of 8 New Era seasons.
I'll run this just before the S49 finale, simulating all jury configurations.
#Survivor
I'll run this just before the S49 finale, simulating all jury configurations.
#Survivor
November 30, 2025 at 9:04 AM
I also have a very simple model to predict how many jury votes the finalist will receive based on votes with and votes for the juror. It has been correct for 6 out of 8 New Era seasons.
I'll run this just before the S49 finale, simulating all jury configurations.
#Survivor
I'll run this just before the S49 finale, simulating all jury configurations.
#Survivor
#Survivor49 network
That trio definitely looks powerful! I'm looking forward to Sophi playing her KIP, taking Rizo's idol, playing for Sage, and sending Savannah or Rizo to the jury.
It's in the trio's best interest not to sit next to each other at the end, so let's see what happens.
That trio definitely looks powerful! I'm looking forward to Sophi playing her KIP, taking Rizo's idol, playing for Sage, and sending Savannah or Rizo to the jury.
It's in the trio's best interest not to sit next to each other at the end, so let's see what happens.
November 27, 2025 at 7:07 PM
#Survivor49 network
That trio definitely looks powerful! I'm looking forward to Sophi playing her KIP, taking Rizo's idol, playing for Sage, and sending Savannah or Rizo to the jury.
It's in the trio's best interest not to sit next to each other at the end, so let's see what happens.
That trio definitely looks powerful! I'm looking forward to Sophi playing her KIP, taking Rizo's idol, playing for Sage, and sending Savannah or Rizo to the jury.
It's in the trio's best interest not to sit next to each other at the end, so let's see what happens.
#Survivor49 confessionals per hour
What's interesting is Sage still has the 2nd highest difference between observed and expected after Savannah, and that's more important the Sophi and Rizo having a slightly higher cph in terms of chances of winning
What's interesting is Sage still has the 2nd highest difference between observed and expected after Savannah, and that's more important the Sophi and Rizo having a slightly higher cph in terms of chances of winning
November 27, 2025 at 11:33 AM
#Survivor49 confessionals per hour
What's interesting is Sage still has the 2nd highest difference between observed and expected after Savannah, and that's more important the Sophi and Rizo having a slightly higher cph in terms of chances of winning
What's interesting is Sage still has the 2nd highest difference between observed and expected after Savannah, and that's more important the Sophi and Rizo having a slightly higher cph in terms of chances of winning
#Survivor49 votes with the jury
This is one of my favourite charts. A juror is 1.6x more likely to vote for the finalist they voted with the most - their main alliance. This shows who has voted with whom and who may get their vote. Another data point to infer the position of the remaining players
This is one of my favourite charts. A juror is 1.6x more likely to vote for the finalist they voted with the most - their main alliance. This shows who has voted with whom and who may get their vote. Another data point to infer the position of the remaining players
November 27, 2025 at 11:24 AM
#Survivor49 votes with the jury
This is one of my favourite charts. A juror is 1.6x more likely to vote for the finalist they voted with the most - their main alliance. This shows who has voted with whom and who may get their vote. Another data point to infer the position of the remaining players
This is one of my favourite charts. A juror is 1.6x more likely to vote for the finalist they voted with the most - their main alliance. This shows who has voted with whom and who may get their vote. Another data point to infer the position of the remaining players
#Survivor49 Predictions
With Jawan gone, it's really put Sage in a less favourable position. The top 3 are now:
🔴 Savannah
🔵 Sophi and
🔴 Rizo
with Savannah increasing her chances to 1-in-3! If Savannah doesn't make it to the end, eyes on Sophi.
#Survivor
With Jawan gone, it's really put Sage in a less favourable position. The top 3 are now:
🔴 Savannah
🔵 Sophi and
🔴 Rizo
with Savannah increasing her chances to 1-in-3! If Savannah doesn't make it to the end, eyes on Sophi.
#Survivor
November 27, 2025 at 11:14 AM
#Survivor49 Predictions
With Jawan gone, it's really put Sage in a less favourable position. The top 3 are now:
🔴 Savannah
🔵 Sophi and
🔴 Rizo
with Savannah increasing her chances to 1-in-3! If Savannah doesn't make it to the end, eyes on Sophi.
#Survivor
With Jawan gone, it's really put Sage in a less favourable position. The top 3 are now:
🔴 Savannah
🔵 Sophi and
🔴 Rizo
with Savannah increasing her chances to 1-in-3! If Savannah doesn't make it to the end, eyes on Sophi.
#Survivor
The chances of surviving subsequent Tribal Councils decrease after winning back-to-back IICs.
This means Savannah has a 75%, 65%, and 44% chance of surviving the next 1, 2, and 3 tribal councils unprotected - ~10% points lower than equal chance, a clear decrease.
1/
#Survivor
This means Savannah has a 75%, 65%, and 44% chance of surviving the next 1, 2, and 3 tribal councils unprotected - ~10% points lower than equal chance, a clear decrease.
1/
#Survivor
November 25, 2025 at 10:37 AM
The chances of surviving subsequent Tribal Councils decrease after winning back-to-back IICs.
This means Savannah has a 75%, 65%, and 44% chance of surviving the next 1, 2, and 3 tribal councils unprotected - ~10% points lower than equal chance, a clear decrease.
1/
#Survivor
This means Savannah has a 75%, 65%, and 44% chance of surviving the next 1, 2, and 3 tribal councils unprotected - ~10% points lower than equal chance, a clear decrease.
1/
#Survivor
Code for those inclined
November 22, 2025 at 4:42 AM
Code for those inclined
- 23 players have played an idol successfully for themselves after merge (changing the outcome of the tribal)
- 6 went on to win the game
- 4 of those players won at least one IIC after playing the idol
- 2 won all IICs after playing the idol (Mike S30, Rachel S47)
#Survivor
- 6 went on to win the game
- 4 of those players won at least one IIC after playing the idol
- 2 won all IICs after playing the idol (Mike S30, Rachel S47)
#Survivor
November 22, 2025 at 4:42 AM
- 23 players have played an idol successfully for themselves after merge (changing the outcome of the tribal)
- 6 went on to win the game
- 4 of those players won at least one IIC after playing the idol
- 2 won all IICs after playing the idol (Mike S30, Rachel S47)
#Survivor
- 6 went on to win the game
- 4 of those players won at least one IIC after playing the idol
- 2 won all IICs after playing the idol (Mike S30, Rachel S47)
#Survivor
#Survivor49 predictions
Savannah has edged further ahead, followed by Jawan and Sage. If Sage and Jawan manage to send Savannah to the Jury, I think one of them will win.
It's hard to see how Steven, Kristina, or Sophie can win from here.
#Survivor
Savannah has edged further ahead, followed by Jawan and Sage. If Sage and Jawan manage to send Savannah to the Jury, I think one of them will win.
It's hard to see how Steven, Kristina, or Sophie can win from here.
#Survivor
November 21, 2025 at 5:19 AM
#Survivor49 predictions
Savannah has edged further ahead, followed by Jawan and Sage. If Sage and Jawan manage to send Savannah to the Jury, I think one of them will win.
It's hard to see how Steven, Kristina, or Sophie can win from here.
#Survivor
Savannah has edged further ahead, followed by Jawan and Sage. If Sage and Jawan manage to send Savannah to the Jury, I think one of them will win.
It's hard to see how Steven, Kristina, or Sophie can win from here.
#Survivor
#Survivor49 vote network
There's a clear standout group here. I expect it's a matter of which Uli duo convinces Hina to vote with them at the next tribal, and how the advantages get used. Could be a big tribal.
1/3
There's a clear standout group here. I expect it's a matter of which Uli duo convinces Hina to vote with them at the next tribal, and how the advantages get used. Could be a big tribal.
1/3
November 21, 2025 at 5:03 AM
#Survivor49 vote network
There's a clear standout group here. I expect it's a matter of which Uli duo convinces Hina to vote with them at the next tribal, and how the advantages get used. Could be a big tribal.
1/3
There's a clear standout group here. I expect it's a matter of which Uli duo convinces Hina to vote with them at the next tribal, and how the advantages get used. Could be a big tribal.
1/3
#Survivor49 confessionals per hour
Savannah has a difference between obs and exp of +2.3 followed by Sophi (+0.6), Sage (+0.5). All OG Hina are below 0.
Rizo has a difference of 0 which suggests he's not going to go all the way. There's a story here, but explained with the predictions.
Savannah has a difference between obs and exp of +2.3 followed by Sophi (+0.6), Sage (+0.5). All OG Hina are below 0.
Rizo has a difference of 0 which suggests he's not going to go all the way. There's a story here, but explained with the predictions.
November 21, 2025 at 4:42 AM
#Survivor49 confessionals per hour
Savannah has a difference between obs and exp of +2.3 followed by Sophi (+0.6), Sage (+0.5). All OG Hina are below 0.
Rizo has a difference of 0 which suggests he's not going to go all the way. There's a story here, but explained with the predictions.
Savannah has a difference between obs and exp of +2.3 followed by Sophi (+0.6), Sage (+0.5). All OG Hina are below 0.
Rizo has a difference of 0 which suggests he's not going to go all the way. There's a story here, but explained with the predictions.
The advantage returned in S44. In ep 1 Lauren won the Bank Your Vote advantage on a journey
Yeah, the first two players to find the first two BYV advantages were named Lauren! Ask me what the odds are.
Lauren banked it in ep 1, Jaime received it in ep 9 and played it unsuccessfully for Heidi.
3/
Yeah, the first two players to find the first two BYV advantages were named Lauren! Ask me what the odds are.
Lauren banked it in ep 1, Jaime received it in ep 9 and played it unsuccessfully for Heidi.
3/
November 18, 2025 at 11:42 AM
The advantage returned in S44. In ep 1 Lauren won the Bank Your Vote advantage on a journey
Yeah, the first two players to find the first two BYV advantages were named Lauren! Ask me what the odds are.
Lauren banked it in ep 1, Jaime received it in ep 9 and played it unsuccessfully for Heidi.
3/
Yeah, the first two players to find the first two BYV advantages were named Lauren! Ask me what the odds are.
Lauren banked it in ep 1, Jaime received it in ep 9 and played it unsuccessfully for Heidi.
3/
Lauren in S35 was the first to find the Bank Your Vote advantage. She found it in ep 8 at camp.
She never used the advantage to bank her vote and was voted out with it in ep11.
2/
She never used the advantage to bank her vote and was voted out with it in ep11.
2/
November 18, 2025 at 11:42 AM
Lauren in S35 was the first to find the Bank Your Vote advantage. She found it in ep 8 at camp.
She never used the advantage to bank her vote and was voted out with it in ep11.
2/
She never used the advantage to bank her vote and was voted out with it in ep11.
2/
Here's a short history of the Bank Your Vote advantage, some stats, and a controversial idea.
The Bank Your Vote advantage has only appeared 3 times - S35, S44, and most recently S49.
🧵 1/
#Survivor #Survivor49
The Bank Your Vote advantage has only appeared 3 times - S35, S44, and most recently S49.
🧵 1/
#Survivor #Survivor49
November 18, 2025 at 11:42 AM
Here's a short history of the Bank Your Vote advantage, some stats, and a controversial idea.
The Bank Your Vote advantage has only appeared 3 times - S35, S44, and most recently S49.
🧵 1/
#Survivor #Survivor49
The Bank Your Vote advantage has only appeared 3 times - S35, S44, and most recently S49.
🧵 1/
#Survivor #Survivor49
#Survivor49 Predictions
Ep 8 was very good for Savannah—winning immunity, bagging an advantage, and getting a lot of screen time put her at the top of the leaderboard with a 1-in-5 chance of winning.
Ep 8 was very good for Savannah—winning immunity, bagging an advantage, and getting a lot of screen time put her at the top of the leaderboard with a 1-in-5 chance of winning.
November 14, 2025 at 8:13 AM
#Survivor49 Predictions
Ep 8 was very good for Savannah—winning immunity, bagging an advantage, and getting a lot of screen time put her at the top of the leaderboard with a 1-in-5 chance of winning.
Ep 8 was very good for Savannah—winning immunity, bagging an advantage, and getting a lot of screen time put her at the top of the leaderboard with a 1-in-5 chance of winning.
Jawan is actually in a pretty good position. The total number of votes with other players is a good indicator of making it deep in the game.
Total votes with others:
1. Jawan 20
2. Sophi 20
3. Rizo 15
4. Alex 14
5. Savannah 12
6. Sage 11
7. Sophie 9
8. Steven 8
9. Kristina 6
#Survivor49
Total votes with others:
1. Jawan 20
2. Sophi 20
3. Rizo 15
4. Alex 14
5. Savannah 12
6. Sage 11
7. Sophie 9
8. Steven 8
9. Kristina 6
#Survivor49
November 14, 2025 at 8:09 AM
Jawan is actually in a pretty good position. The total number of votes with other players is a good indicator of making it deep in the game.
Total votes with others:
1. Jawan 20
2. Sophi 20
3. Rizo 15
4. Alex 14
5. Savannah 12
6. Sage 11
7. Sophie 9
8. Steven 8
9. Kristina 6
#Survivor49
Total votes with others:
1. Jawan 20
2. Sophi 20
3. Rizo 15
4. Alex 14
5. Savannah 12
6. Sage 11
7. Sophie 9
8. Steven 8
9. Kristina 6
#Survivor49
#Survivor49 confessionals per hour
Top 10 at ep 8:
1. Yam Yam 2.4x 🏆
2. Savannah 1.9x 4️⃣9️⃣
3. Carolyn 1.8x 🥈
4. Q 1.7x
5. Charlie 1.6x 🥈
6. Kenzie 1.5x 🏆
7. Carson 1.5x
8. Katurah 1.4x
9. Emily 1.4x
10. Evvie 1.4x
The number means X times more than expected. Only Savannah is in the top 10.
Top 10 at ep 8:
1. Yam Yam 2.4x 🏆
2. Savannah 1.9x 4️⃣9️⃣
3. Carolyn 1.8x 🥈
4. Q 1.7x
5. Charlie 1.6x 🥈
6. Kenzie 1.5x 🏆
7. Carson 1.5x
8. Katurah 1.4x
9. Emily 1.4x
10. Evvie 1.4x
The number means X times more than expected. Only Savannah is in the top 10.
November 14, 2025 at 7:59 AM
#Survivor49 confessionals per hour
Top 10 at ep 8:
1. Yam Yam 2.4x 🏆
2. Savannah 1.9x 4️⃣9️⃣
3. Carolyn 1.8x 🥈
4. Q 1.7x
5. Charlie 1.6x 🥈
6. Kenzie 1.5x 🏆
7. Carson 1.5x
8. Katurah 1.4x
9. Emily 1.4x
10. Evvie 1.4x
The number means X times more than expected. Only Savannah is in the top 10.
Top 10 at ep 8:
1. Yam Yam 2.4x 🏆
2. Savannah 1.9x 4️⃣9️⃣
3. Carolyn 1.8x 🥈
4. Q 1.7x
5. Charlie 1.6x 🥈
6. Kenzie 1.5x 🏆
7. Carson 1.5x
8. Katurah 1.4x
9. Emily 1.4x
10. Evvie 1.4x
The number means X times more than expected. Only Savannah is in the top 10.
#Survivor49 Chances of winning
Here are the estimated chances of winning for each player in the F10. Sage is in the top spot, followed by Alex and Jawan.
It's early days, and anything can happen, so watch this space.
#Survivor
Here are the estimated chances of winning for each player in the F10. Sage is in the top spot, followed by Alex and Jawan.
It's early days, and anything can happen, so watch this space.
#Survivor
November 9, 2025 at 8:01 AM
#Survivor49 Chances of winning
Here are the estimated chances of winning for each player in the F10. Sage is in the top spot, followed by Alex and Jawan.
It's early days, and anything can happen, so watch this space.
#Survivor
Here are the estimated chances of winning for each player in the F10. Sage is in the top spot, followed by Alex and Jawan.
It's early days, and anything can happen, so watch this space.
#Survivor
With Nate gone the oldest players in the game are Kristina and Steven (35) and the average age has dropped below 30.
Not the youngest group at this stage of the game. That goes to:
1. S16 (27.3)
2. S36 (27.8)
3. S15 (27.9)
4. S6 (29.6)
5. S49 (29.7)
#Survivor49
Not the youngest group at this stage of the game. That goes to:
1. S16 (27.3)
2. S36 (27.8)
3. S15 (27.9)
4. S6 (29.6)
5. S49 (29.7)
#Survivor49
November 8, 2025 at 10:20 PM
With Nate gone the oldest players in the game are Kristina and Steven (35) and the average age has dropped below 30.
Not the youngest group at this stage of the game. That goes to:
1. S16 (27.3)
2. S36 (27.8)
3. S15 (27.9)
4. S6 (29.6)
5. S49 (29.7)
#Survivor49
Not the youngest group at this stage of the game. That goes to:
1. S16 (27.3)
2. S36 (27.8)
3. S15 (27.9)
4. S6 (29.6)
5. S49 (29.7)
#Survivor49
TIL you can turn off the
`summarise()` has grouped output by...
message when using dplyr::summarise by running options(dplyr.summarise.inform = FALSE) 👍
#Rstats
`summarise()` has grouped output by...
message when using dplyr::summarise by running options(dplyr.summarise.inform = FALSE) 👍
#Rstats
November 8, 2025 at 11:14 AM
TIL you can turn off the
`summarise()` has grouped output by...
message when using dplyr::summarise by running options(dplyr.summarise.inform = FALSE) 👍
#Rstats
`summarise()` has grouped output by...
message when using dplyr::summarise by running options(dplyr.summarise.inform = FALSE) 👍
#Rstats
Did Alex and Sophi split their vote, or just not vote together? I wasn't paying attention.
Sophi, Savannah, and Rizo were all on the wrong side of the vote. Historically, this means their chances of winning tank - about 75% lower than players on the right side. They have work to do.
#Survivor49
Sophi, Savannah, and Rizo were all on the wrong side of the vote. Historically, this means their chances of winning tank - about 75% lower than players on the right side. They have work to do.
#Survivor49
November 6, 2025 at 7:31 PM
Did Alex and Sophi split their vote, or just not vote together? I wasn't paying attention.
Sophi, Savannah, and Rizo were all on the wrong side of the vote. Historically, this means their chances of winning tank - about 75% lower than players on the right side. They have work to do.
#Survivor49
Sophi, Savannah, and Rizo were all on the wrong side of the vote. Historically, this means their chances of winning tank - about 75% lower than players on the right side. They have work to do.
#Survivor49
#Survivor49 confessionals per hour
Top 10:
1. Yam Yam - 7 🏆
2. Carolyn - 6.4 🥈
3. Shan - 6.3
4. Savannah - 6.2 4️⃣9️⃣
5. Alex - 5.6 4️⃣9️⃣
6. Sophi - 5.6 4️⃣9️⃣
7. Cody - 5.1
8. Emily - 5.1
9. Kenzie - 5 🏆
10. Sam - 5 🥈
There's a good chance one of those win and another makes the final.
#Survivor
Top 10:
1. Yam Yam - 7 🏆
2. Carolyn - 6.4 🥈
3. Shan - 6.3
4. Savannah - 6.2 4️⃣9️⃣
5. Alex - 5.6 4️⃣9️⃣
6. Sophi - 5.6 4️⃣9️⃣
7. Cody - 5.1
8. Emily - 5.1
9. Kenzie - 5 🏆
10. Sam - 5 🥈
There's a good chance one of those win and another makes the final.
#Survivor
November 6, 2025 at 7:12 PM
#Survivor49 confessionals per hour
Top 10:
1. Yam Yam - 7 🏆
2. Carolyn - 6.4 🥈
3. Shan - 6.3
4. Savannah - 6.2 4️⃣9️⃣
5. Alex - 5.6 4️⃣9️⃣
6. Sophi - 5.6 4️⃣9️⃣
7. Cody - 5.1
8. Emily - 5.1
9. Kenzie - 5 🏆
10. Sam - 5 🥈
There's a good chance one of those win and another makes the final.
#Survivor
Top 10:
1. Yam Yam - 7 🏆
2. Carolyn - 6.4 🥈
3. Shan - 6.3
4. Savannah - 6.2 4️⃣9️⃣
5. Alex - 5.6 4️⃣9️⃣
6. Sophi - 5.6 4️⃣9️⃣
7. Cody - 5.1
8. Emily - 5.1
9. Kenzie - 5 🏆
10. Sam - 5 🥈
There's a good chance one of those win and another makes the final.
#Survivor
If Savannah is on one of the other social platforms, would someone mind sharing this with her? She might be interested in the optimal chicken strategy. tl;dr don't kill it.
#Survivor49
#Survivor49
November 6, 2025 at 10:30 AM
If Savannah is on one of the other social platforms, would someone mind sharing this with her? She might be interested in the optimal chicken strategy. tl;dr don't kill it.
#Survivor49
#Survivor49