Both Rachel and Gabler had slightly fewer votes with the jury (-2) than Sam and Sue, and Cassidy, respectively. A more complex model picks up Rachel and Gabler but misses a couple of others. I find it interesting how well a simple model does.

Yeah it didn't seem like he spent much time gauging the reactions, but maybe he didn't have to! It will be interesting to see if he sowed some doubt into Kristina and Steven.

I'm at the point where I can think of the most likely scenario but also know that's not happening this season!

Everyone loves an underdog story so maybe they're leading up to a Sage-Savannah clash and Sage comes out on top 🤔. Looking forward to ep11!

For those who want to dive further into how I measured this relationship you can read this post.

gradientdescending.com/do-jurors-vo...

Winning 3 consecutive IICs makes a player's chances even worse:
- 70% chance of surviving the next TC (vs 86%)
- 45% chance of surviving the 2nd (vs 71%)

Blog post coming soon with the gorey stats, model, and code.

6/

In summary, given where Savannah is in the game, she has a:
- 75% chance of surviving the next TC (vs 86%)
- 65% chance of surviving the 2nd (vs 71%)
- 44% chance of surviving the 3rd (vs 57%)

Definitely not quite as big as I thought, but definitely lower.

5/

The analysis used all 48 seasons. Given the game can differ a lot e.g. when they merge, number of challenges, when they win 2 back-to-back challenges, I've taken all the different probabilities into account to estimate this effect.

4/

Answer: Yes!

Intuitively, it makes sense. The effect isn't quite as big as I would have thought, but it is statistically significant.

3/

Inspired by the challenge stats @joshkettles.bsky.social shared, I wanted to look into it a bit deeper, but reframing the problem slightly:

Are the chances of surviving subsequent Tribal Councils lower after winning back-to-back individual immunity challenges?

2/

bsky.app/profile/josh...

Code for those inclined

Rizo may need to rely on winning an IIC after playing his idol and I don't like his chances. He hasn't performed particularly well.

In which case, he may as well hold onto it for as long as he can. If he gets voted out with it, well that's not too dissimilar from being voted out at the next tribal.

Yeah it looks that way. I think Rizo is going to have to rely on winning a challenge after playing the idol which I can't see happening (if he's not voted out with the idol)

True! I was just trying to highlight the non-winning finalists. Should have used a different emoji!