Darren Olivier
@darren.africandefence.net
4.1K followers 6.6K following 450 posts
Director at African Defence Review (@africandefence) Covering African conflicts with a specific focus on Southern Africa. Email: [email protected] Signal: https://signal.me/#eu/9yYQ7ONQJ8KYa71byz4avvZuSICtMLWim0AlDOYqYwwZhOSZaVpGKLUzYPBqrJAM
Posts Media Videos Starter Packs
Reposted by Darren Olivier
aviationmarlene.bsky.social
An incredible design, that of the Payen "PA.350-CD" racing aircraft designed in 1934 and intended for the Deutsch race in 1935 and then in 1938 before falling into oblivion.
With an engine of only 220 hp and a delta wing, it was supposed to reach a speed of 500 km/h.
darren.africandefence.net
Also, the headline says 'Russian' flights, but the only one mentioned, TransAvia, is from Belarus, not Russia. The same is true for the TransAvia aircraft I tracked, which was registered in Belarus.

I've not seen any direct or indirect link to Russia in the Libya flights.
darren.africandefence.net
I also can't verify the article's claims about false flight plans and transponders being switched off. The flight I tracked was emitting ADS-B transponder signals correctly the entire time, first from Lanseria to Nairobi, then from Lanseria to Benghazi. It wasn't switched off.
darren.africandefence.net
That means the Upington Il-76 doesn't appear to have been carrying anything from Russia, Belarus, or Iran to South Africa, and there was no government involvement at all. So that entire controversy appears to be a storm in a teacup created by premature speculative reporting.
darren.africandefence.net
As for the Upington Abakan Il-76, despite what the article says my information does not support it having any involvement with this Libyan scheme.
As far as I can tell the Dept of Transport's statement, that the aircraft delivered cargo originally from Somalia, is accurate.
darren.africandefence.net
This has always been a weak point in any sanctions regime, that it's difficult to police civilian equipment that's exported via third countries and only militarised/armed on arrival. But the SA govt would no doubt be investigating the people involved for breaching SA PMC laws.
darren.africandefence.net
However, it's also unlikely that these helicopters fell under South African arms export regulations, through the NCACC, as they're civilian-registered and demilitarised. That means there'd be no End-User Certificate and no legal requirement in SA to verify end user delivery.
darren.africandefence.net
Libya remains under a UN arms embargo, with limited exceptions allowed. It could be argued that those who delivered these helicopters to the LNA are in breach of the embargo, even if these are civilian/demilitarised helicopters and only armed on arrival.
darren.africandefence.net
It's true that several privately-owned & demilitarised/civilian South African Gazelle & Puma helicopters have turned up in Benghazi, after ostensibly being sold to buyers in Jordan. At least one of the flights, on 19 September, flew from Lanseria to Nairobi, and then to Benghazi.
darren.africandefence.net
The reporting on the Gazelle & Puma helicopters going to the Libyan National Army aligns with info I've received.
But it's unclear if there are export controls on the aircraft or that transponders were switched off, and I see no link to the Abakan Il-76 it mentions.

www.news24.com/citypress/ne...
SA helicopters smuggled to Libyan warlord via Russian flights | News24
Several Gazelle helicopters have been covertly exported from SA to controversial Libyan warlord General Khalifa Haftar, using Russian charter flights and fake flight routes.
www.news24.com
Reposted by Darren Olivier
jamiemctrusty.bsky.social
11th October 1938: First flight of the Westland Whirlwind. The most heavily armed single-seat fighter in the world when introduced, it was also faster than its contemporaries at low level. However, it suffered from poor performance at altitude.
📷 Airfix / Roy Cross
🧵1/6
Artwork from a vintage Airfix kit depicting a Westland Whirlwind. It’s a sleek twin inline-engined, single seat fighter with a distinctive ‘T’ position horizontal stabiliser at the top of its tailfin. Four 20mm cannon, belching fire, protrude beyond the propeller spinners. The aircraft is depicted flying above a layer of cloud, through which a column of brownish smoke is ascending. Another Whirlwind can be seen in the background.
darren.africandefence.net
For instance, both SunSat and SumbandilaSat, South Africa's first satellites, were extensively tested at these Houwteq (later Denel Spaceteq) facilities in the 1990s and 2000s.
darren.africandefence.net
The spy satellite programme ended in the early 1990s. Thereafter Houwteq reused the tech to develop GreenSat, one of the first high-resolution civilian earth observation satellites, which never launched, and to test satellites for both SA & foreign customers.

www.news24.com/business/eco...
Former top-secret satellite plant in Grabouw getting R62m facelift | News24
A satellite plant outside Grabouw, which was used to test an apartheid-era spy satellite that was later canned, is being given a multimillion-rand facelift.
www.news24.com
darren.africandefence.net
So I don't expect a significant diplomatic impact from this. If it had been a system that fell under the Wassenaar dual-use system & hadn't been properly tracked it would be a different story.

But many Western commercial parts are in Russian drones.

www.bbc.com/news/article...
British parts found in Russian drones, Zelesnky says
The Ukrainian leader says British-made microcomputers were used in weapons launched at Ukraine this weekend.
www.bbc.com
darren.africandefence.net
It's virtually impossible to prevent purely commercial equipment not subject to dual-use export controls from being re-exported by buyers to countries like Russia. Neither the company nor the government has any reasonable means to prevent or monitor it, they're too widely sold.
darren.africandefence.net
I think more is being made of this than is warranted.
The part, the SF-20/B from Lightware, is a commercial LIDAR sensor. The laser in it is a ~900nm, ~1.8mW device, putting it very far below the Wassenaar dual-use limits requiring export controls & NCACC approval.

www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
South Africa Investigates How It Made a Part for Russian Drones
The manufacturer says it’s unclear how Russia obtained the equipment because it isn’t supposed to be sold for military use.
www.bloomberg.com
Reposted by Darren Olivier
angierasmussen.bsky.social
I don’t know who needs to hear this but the CDC is being eviscerated right now. America is not going to have any kind of outbreak response capacity after tonight. Americans’ health data is no longer secure. Say goodbye to federal public health in any capacity. It’s a disaster. We won’t recover.
Reposted by Darren Olivier
sherylnyt.bsky.social
BREAKING: Friday night massacre underway at CDC. Doznes of "disease detectives," high-level scientists, entire Washington staff and editors of the MMWR (Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report) have all been RIFed and received the following notice:
Reposted by Darren Olivier
sensehofstede.nl
Developing nations rack up US$3.9 bln in net debt payments to China a year, study finds – Reuters: ‘Developing nations are now paying more to service debt owed to China than they receive in new loans’
www.reuters.com
Reposted by Darren Olivier
nicholasgrossman.bsky.social
The widespread media decision to frame international affairs as "will Donnie get the prize he wants?" is pathetic.

He's not the protagonist of human events. And to the extent he's a significant character in world affairs, whether or not he gets a prize is one of the least important things about it.
darren.africandefence.net
I co-wrote an explainer about the sudden increase in Il-76 flights into South Africa in recent weeks, and why all but one are normal & not controversial.

Only the Upington flight still has open questions about its purpose.

www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2025...
www.dailymaverick.co.za
Reposted by Darren Olivier
jacksapoch.bsky.social
NEW: Since October 2023, the IDF Spokesperson's Unit has released dozens of 3D animations illustrating alleged Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iranian sites

The style is now unmistakable: satellite zoom-ins, black & white wireframes, and red-textured houses - a new visual language of war