Darren Olivier
@darren.africandefence.net
Director at African Defence Review (@africandefence)
Covering African conflicts with a specific focus on Southern Africa.
Email: [email protected]
Signal: darren.13
Covering African conflicts with a specific focus on Southern Africa.
Email: [email protected]
Signal: darren.13
Notably, the South African government & the SANDF have been completely radio silent on the continued presence of the Iranian warships in SA waters almost a week after Exercise Will For Peace.
My best guess is the delay was caused by technical problems, but some transparency would be nice.
My best guess is the delay was caused by technical problems, but some transparency would be nice.
IRIS Naghdi corvette of the Iranian navy departed Simon's Town this morning and was later spotted off Betty's Bay.
(Photographer unknown)
(Photographer unknown)
January 22, 2026 at 10:29 AM
Notably, the South African government & the SANDF have been completely radio silent on the continued presence of the Iranian warships in SA waters almost a week after Exercise Will For Peace.
My best guess is the delay was caused by technical problems, but some transparency would be nice.
My best guess is the delay was caused by technical problems, but some transparency would be nice.
Reposted by Darren Olivier
I was on @Powerfm987 (again) this am. I said Iran’s participation in naval Ex Will for Peace points to a serious breakdown in decision-making, weak coordination between the Presidency, Defence and foreign affairs, and dangerous geopolitical risks for SA.
on.soundcloud.com/4ObuRiVOGL9S...
on.soundcloud.com/4ObuRiVOGL9S...
PowerFM 260122
Ramaphosa Says South Africa Must Review How SANDF Arranges Military Exercises After Iran Controversy.
Thabiso Tema is in conversation with Defence analyst, Dean Wingrin.
soundcloud.com
January 22, 2026 at 8:16 AM
I was on @Powerfm987 (again) this am. I said Iran’s participation in naval Ex Will for Peace points to a serious breakdown in decision-making, weak coordination between the Presidency, Defence and foreign affairs, and dangerous geopolitical risks for SA.
on.soundcloud.com/4ObuRiVOGL9S...
on.soundcloud.com/4ObuRiVOGL9S...
Reposted by Darren Olivier
As great powers abandon rules and values for their own interests, middle powers like Canada have a choice: compete with each other for favour or act together with impact.
January 21, 2026 at 8:59 PM
As great powers abandon rules and values for their own interests, middle powers like Canada have a choice: compete with each other for favour or act together with impact.
Reposted by Darren Olivier
I think we’ve got better and more culturally-varied street food than I could have imagined, cool jackets galore, and drugs that make us think we’re really fast and strong before they kill us.
we're getting all the downsides of cyberpunk (social alienation, ruthless hyper capitalism, digital mass surveillance state) but none of the promised upsides (cheap street food, cool jackets, super drugs that make you really fast and strong before they kill you)
January 20, 2026 at 10:02 PM
I think we’ve got better and more culturally-varied street food than I could have imagined, cool jackets galore, and drugs that make us think we’re really fast and strong before they kill us.
Reposted by Darren Olivier
As has been the norm at year-end, SA Army personnel on the national border protection tasking Operation Corona had their hands full coping with undocumented people entering South Africa, with Zimbabweans in the majority.
defenceweb.co.za/security/bor...
defenceweb.co.za/security/bor...
SA Army soldiers stop 2 800 illegals and confiscate contraband worth R7 million in December - DefenceWeb
As has been the norm at year-end, SA Army personnel on the national border protection tasking Operation Corona had their hands full coping with undocumented
defenceweb.co.za
January 21, 2026 at 12:46 PM
As has been the norm at year-end, SA Army personnel on the national border protection tasking Operation Corona had their hands full coping with undocumented people entering South Africa, with Zimbabweans in the majority.
defenceweb.co.za/security/bor...
defenceweb.co.za/security/bor...
Reposted by Darren Olivier
In SA, as in many states facing fiscal pressure and complex security demands, there has been a growing reliance on Commercial Off-The-Shelf (COTS) and foreign-developed technologies to fill capability gaps quickly, carrying risks that cannot be ignored.
defenceweb.co.za/industry/ind...
defenceweb.co.za/industry/ind...
The dangers of foreign technology dependencies in security and military operations - DefenceWeb
Modern military and security operations are increasingly shaped by digital technologies. From command and control (C2) systems and intelligence analytics to
defenceweb.co.za
January 21, 2026 at 12:43 PM
In SA, as in many states facing fiscal pressure and complex security demands, there has been a growing reliance on Commercial Off-The-Shelf (COTS) and foreign-developed technologies to fill capability gaps quickly, carrying risks that cannot be ignored.
defenceweb.co.za/industry/ind...
defenceweb.co.za/industry/ind...
Reposted by Darren Olivier
So Naghdi is back in port. Maybe a technical problem?
January 21, 2026 at 1:29 PM
So Naghdi is back in port. Maybe a technical problem?
This, again, highlights a worrying & fundamental breakdown in coordination between the Presidency, DIRCO, the DOD, and their respective cabinet ministers.
Up until a few years ago, while the relationship wasn’t great, there was still coordination via the ICTS & NOCPM.
www.news24.com/politics/mil...
Up until a few years ago, while the relationship wasn’t great, there was still coordination via the ICTS & NOCPM.
www.news24.com/politics/mil...
Military may have kept govt in the dark on Iran’s role in naval drill for 2 months | News24
South Africa’s top diplomats and trade negotiators learned about Iran’s inclusion in the now-infamous naval drill in False Bay not from the defence department or the military, but via the media, sever...
www.news24.com
January 21, 2026 at 9:49 AM
This, again, highlights a worrying & fundamental breakdown in coordination between the Presidency, DIRCO, the DOD, and their respective cabinet ministers.
Up until a few years ago, while the relationship wasn’t great, there was still coordination via the ICTS & NOCPM.
www.news24.com/politics/mil...
Up until a few years ago, while the relationship wasn’t great, there was still coordination via the ICTS & NOCPM.
www.news24.com/politics/mil...
This is a very good op-ed.
It both goes into detail on how severely coordination between the Presidency, DIRCO, and the DOD has broken down, and speaks about how the incident has sparked a fresh debate in government to clearly specify SA’s foreign policy interests.
www.news24.com/business/car...
It both goes into detail on how severely coordination between the Presidency, DIRCO, and the DOD has broken down, and speaks about how the incident has sparked a fresh debate in government to clearly specify SA’s foreign policy interests.
www.news24.com/business/car...
Carol Paton | Have the generals gone rogue, or did Cyril and Angie forget to tell them what to do? | News24
The Iranian debacle illustrates the collapse of civilian leadership of the military and has endangered our national interest, writes Carol Paton.
www.news24.com
January 21, 2026 at 9:48 AM
This is a very good op-ed.
It both goes into detail on how severely coordination between the Presidency, DIRCO, and the DOD has broken down, and speaks about how the incident has sparked a fresh debate in government to clearly specify SA’s foreign policy interests.
www.news24.com/business/car...
It both goes into detail on how severely coordination between the Presidency, DIRCO, and the DOD has broken down, and speaks about how the incident has sparked a fresh debate in government to clearly specify SA’s foreign policy interests.
www.news24.com/business/car...
It’s unclear why the Iranians took so much longer to depart. Exercise participants will typically leave immediately after an exercise is over, as a mark of diplomatic politeness, and the other participants left days ago.
I’d hope the reason was technical, rather than petulant.
I’d hope the reason was technical, rather than petulant.
Iranian warships leave Cape Town. Having completed the maritime Exercise Will for Peace last Friday, Iranian navy corvette Naghdi has only this morning departed Simon's Town harbour. At the same time, forward base ship Makran departed Table Bay Harbour in Cape Town.
January 21, 2026 at 8:59 AM
It’s unclear why the Iranians took so much longer to depart. Exercise participants will typically leave immediately after an exercise is over, as a mark of diplomatic politeness, and the other participants left days ago.
I’d hope the reason was technical, rather than petulant.
I’d hope the reason was technical, rather than petulant.
Reposted by Darren Olivier
We can build walls or we can be more ambitious — and build something better, stronger, and more just.
January 20, 2026 at 10:56 PM
We can build walls or we can be more ambitious — and build something better, stronger, and more just.
Reposted by Darren Olivier
on the evening of 9/11 i worked in the operations center at the state department helping field incoming calls & cables. ally after ally promised support under the north atlantic charter. trump is shredding the bonds that make that kind of support natural.
FWIW, the one and only time Article 5 has formally been invoked was following 9/11 -- by NATO and on behalf of the United States, without it having to make any request.
Trump: "The big fear I have with NATO is we spend tremendous amounts of money with NATO and I know we'll come to their rescue, but I just really do question whether or not they'll come to ours. Just saying."
January 20, 2026 at 8:47 PM
on the evening of 9/11 i worked in the operations center at the state department helping field incoming calls & cables. ally after ally promised support under the north atlantic charter. trump is shredding the bonds that make that kind of support natural.
Reposted by Darren Olivier
Listening to Trump presser for 40 mins. Rambling, repetitive stream of consciousness. Narcissistic in extreme. Every thought linked back to whether the person or entity voted for or likes Trump. If Biden had delivered this there would have been serious concern about his health.
January 20, 2026 at 7:48 PM
Listening to Trump presser for 40 mins. Rambling, repetitive stream of consciousness. Narcissistic in extreme. Every thought linked back to whether the person or entity voted for or likes Trump. If Biden had delivered this there would have been serious concern about his health.
There are some parts of this with which I agree, especially the recklessness & irresponsibility of sending out troops without adequate support or equipment.
But the language is too sensationalist & the mixing of two very different missions in SAMIDRC & MONUSCO misses key points.
But the language is too sensationalist & the mixing of two very different missions in SAMIDRC & MONUSCO misses key points.
For decades, the SANDF has been entangled in a complex and costly engagement in the DRC, with millions spent, equipment lost, and, most tragically, countless South African soldiers dead.
defenceweb.co.za/sa-defence-s...
defenceweb.co.za/sa-defence-s...
Sent naked into the DRC storm with an impossible mandate - DefenceWeb
For decades, the South African National Defence Force (SANDF) has been entangled in a complex and costly engagement in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC),
defenceweb.co.za
January 20, 2026 at 7:35 PM
There are some parts of this with which I agree, especially the recklessness & irresponsibility of sending out troops without adequate support or equipment.
But the language is too sensationalist & the mixing of two very different missions in SAMIDRC & MONUSCO misses key points.
But the language is too sensationalist & the mixing of two very different missions in SAMIDRC & MONUSCO misses key points.
Reposted by Darren Olivier
This guy doesn’t realise how much of a symptom of the problem he is. A back-combed, permatanned avatar of smugness handing out lectures to people whose responsibilities he can’t even begin to encompass.
Gov. Newsom at Davos rips into world leaders who think they can appease Trump: “I should have brought a bunch of knee pads for all the world leaders.…this is pathetic”
January 20, 2026 at 6:30 PM
This guy doesn’t realise how much of a symptom of the problem he is. A back-combed, permatanned avatar of smugness handing out lectures to people whose responsibilities he can’t even begin to encompass.
Reposted by Darren Olivier
Carney says if middle powers like Canada don't act together, "they're not at the table, they're on the menu."
"When we only negotiate bilaterally w a hegemon we negotiate from weakness. We accept what's offered...this is not sovereignty. It's the performance of sovereignty while accepting subordination..."
Full speech and convo w Carney www.youtube.com/watch?v=WIEH...
January 20, 2026 at 4:25 PM
Carney says if middle powers like Canada don't act together, "they're not at the table, they're on the menu."
This is a key principle for South Africa, and the reason I have argued for it to focus on enhancing its strategic partnerships with both the rest of the region & similar middle powers, in order to collectively constrain great powers.
defenceweb.co.za/editors-pick...
defenceweb.co.za/editors-pick...
January 20, 2026 at 6:55 PM
This is a key principle for South Africa, and the reason I have argued for it to focus on enhancing its strategic partnerships with both the rest of the region & similar middle powers, in order to collectively constrain great powers.
defenceweb.co.za/editors-pick...
defenceweb.co.za/editors-pick...
Reposted by Darren Olivier
Carney: "American hegemony in particular helped provide public goods, a stable financial system... this bargain no longer works. Let me be direct. We are in the midst of a rupture, not a transition... recently, great powers have begun using economic integration as a weapon. Tariffs as leverage ... "
January 20, 2026 at 3:50 PM
Carney: "American hegemony in particular helped provide public goods, a stable financial system... this bargain no longer works. Let me be direct. We are in the midst of a rupture, not a transition... recently, great powers have begun using economic integration as a weapon. Tariffs as leverage ... "
Reposted by Darren Olivier
The Test Flying Academy of SA (TFASA) is again in the crosshairs of the US, after the US Justice Department filed a forfeiture complaint against mission crew trainers that were interdicted in transit from the TFASA to China’s People’s Liberation Army.
defenceweb.co.za/aerospace/ae...
defenceweb.co.za/aerospace/ae...
Test Flying Academy of South Africa faces US ire over China contract - DefenceWeb
The Test Flying Academy of South Africa (TFASA) is once again in the crosshairs of the United States, after the US Justice Department filed a forfeiture
defenceweb.co.za
January 20, 2026 at 10:39 AM
The Test Flying Academy of SA (TFASA) is again in the crosshairs of the US, after the US Justice Department filed a forfeiture complaint against mission crew trainers that were interdicted in transit from the TFASA to China’s People’s Liberation Army.
defenceweb.co.za/aerospace/ae...
defenceweb.co.za/aerospace/ae...
Reposted by Darren Olivier
Someday corporations and technology companies will pretend they were always against this
January 19, 2026 at 10:51 PM
Someday corporations and technology companies will pretend they were always against this
Reposted by Darren Olivier
Angola has officially inaugurated a production line for the assembly and maintenance of naval vessels, in partnership with France’s CMN.
defenceweb.co.za/sea/sea-sea/...
defenceweb.co.za/sea/sea-sea/...
Angola inaugurates naval vessel production line - DefenceWeb
Angola has officially inaugurated a production line for the assembly and maintenance of naval vessels, in partnership with France’s CMN.
defenceweb.co.za
January 20, 2026 at 10:38 AM
Angola has officially inaugurated a production line for the assembly and maintenance of naval vessels, in partnership with France’s CMN.
defenceweb.co.za/sea/sea-sea/...
defenceweb.co.za/sea/sea-sea/...
Reposted by Darren Olivier
We are watching one of the wildest things a nation-state has ever done: A superpower is committing suicide because the GOP Congress is too cowardly to stand up to the Mad King.
This is one of the wildest moments in all of geopolitics ever.
This is one of the wildest moments in all of geopolitics ever.
Footage shows Danish troops arriving in Greenland as part of a new military deployment. Among the personnel who landed on the island is Major General Peter H. Boysen, Chief of the Danish Army Command. #Greenland
January 19, 2026 at 10:59 PM
We are watching one of the wildest things a nation-state has ever done: A superpower is committing suicide because the GOP Congress is too cowardly to stand up to the Mad King.
This is one of the wildest moments in all of geopolitics ever.
This is one of the wildest moments in all of geopolitics ever.
Reposted by Darren Olivier
I’ve been reading Trump’s "Board of Peace Charter," and despite the name, this isn’t a multilateral institution, it’s a centralised structure built entirely around the authority of one person (Trump).
www.timesofisrael.com/full-text-ch...
www.timesofisrael.com/full-text-ch...
Full text: Charter of Trump’s Board of Peace
No mention of Gaza, which bolsters ToI's reporting that US also envisions panel helping resolve other conflicts worldwide; member countries must pay $1 billion for permanent spot
www.timesofisrael.com
January 20, 2026 at 9:26 AM
I’ve been reading Trump’s "Board of Peace Charter," and despite the name, this isn’t a multilateral institution, it’s a centralised structure built entirely around the authority of one person (Trump).
www.timesofisrael.com/full-text-ch...
www.timesofisrael.com/full-text-ch...
Reposted by Darren Olivier
“We have done so much for America”: Denmark fought alongside the U.S. in Afghanistan. Now, as Trump eyes Greenland, the families of fallen soldiers have a message for him, @isaacstanleybecker.bsky.social reports: theatln.tc/I8nGcxwO
January 19, 2026 at 5:45 PM
“We have done so much for America”: Denmark fought alongside the U.S. in Afghanistan. Now, as Trump eyes Greenland, the families of fallen soldiers have a message for him, @isaacstanleybecker.bsky.social reports: theatln.tc/I8nGcxwO
Reposted by Darren Olivier
As of yesterday (Sunday, 18 January) the SA Air Force (SAAF) has three helicopters working post flood disaster recovery operations.
defenceweb.co.za/aerospace/ae...
defenceweb.co.za/aerospace/ae...
SA sends Oryx to Mozambique to boost post flood search and rescue - DefenceWeb
As of yesterday (Sunday, 18 January) the SA Air Force (SAAF) has three helicopters working post flood disaster recovery operations.
defenceweb.co.za
January 19, 2026 at 11:02 AM
As of yesterday (Sunday, 18 January) the SA Air Force (SAAF) has three helicopters working post flood disaster recovery operations.
defenceweb.co.za/aerospace/ae...
defenceweb.co.za/aerospace/ae...