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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 1d

Want to see the range of possible outcomes at the next NI Assembly election if the polls aren't perfect?

We regularly run 1000 simulations to see how likely it is that each party wins their target seats.

Wales, Scotland and London are in the works.

👉 devolvedelections.co.uk/ni-projects/

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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 12d

Our projection for Scottish Parl '26 based on the Norstat poll for @thetimes.com :
🎗️ SNP — 56
➡️ Ref — 24
🌹 Lab — 20
🐤 LD — 12
🌳 Con — 10
🌱 GP — 7
🔵 Alba — 0
⚪ Other — 0
From @devolvedelections.bsky.social
devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/

Devolved Elections - Devolved Parliament Projection Tool

Create and share your own Devolved Parliament election projections. Interactive, educational, and up-to-date!

devolvedelections.co.uk

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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 14d

This is a projection based solely on todays poll. The Greens are on 10 in our Nowcast.

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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 15d

Holyrood Projection based on the latest Survation/Scotland in Union Poll:

🎗️ SNP — 63
🌹 Lab — 18
➡️ Ref — 18
🌳 Con — 12
🐤 LD — 11
🌱 GP — 7
🔵 Alba — 0
⚪ Other — 0
From @devolvedelections.bsky.social devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/

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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 23d

A projection based on the latest Barn Cymru poll for YouGov for ITV Cymru Wales and Cardiff University for Senedd ‘26:

➡️ Ref — 37
🌼 PC — 36
🌹 Lab — 13
🌳 Con — 5
🐤 LD — 3
🌱 GP — 2

From
@devolvedelections.bsky.social

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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 27d

We've been busy on the other site as Ireland's presidential election gets into full swing

Ireland Election Projections @irishelection.bsky.social · 27d

We've introduced an Irish Presidential Election projection!

Enter your first preferences and play with their transfer freindliness to project a winner.

irishelections.ie/presidential/

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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · Aug 29

Not all of these outcomes are equally likely and we only allow variation within the margin of error (about 2.5%).

There are some surprising outcomes that need small, but very specific, polling misses.

Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · Aug 29

Scotland update:
We all know polls are not perfect, so we've added a new preset to help visualise the uncertainty of polling.

Below are some outcomes that are just a normal polling miss away based on current numbers

The numbers change with every click

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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · Aug 27

We've added a new Margin of Error preset to our Northern Ireland projection!

It creates random votes share near the Nowcast so you can see what could happen with a normal polling miss.

Just click it again for a different scenario.

devolvedelections.co.uk/northern-ire...

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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · Aug 27

Graham Simpson (Central Region) defects from Conservative to Reform becoming their only MSP.

He's likely to hold a seat in the new region of Central and Lothians West.

devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/

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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · Aug 19

Our first guest opinion piece from Lewis Norton looking ahead to the elections in Scotland and Wales.

2026 Devolved Elections: The Conservatives' Defining Test

devolvedelections.co.uk/blog/norton-...

Devolved Elections - Devolved Parliament Projection Tool

Create and share your own Devolved Parliament election projections. Interactive, educational, and up-to-date!

devolvedelections.co.uk

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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · Aug 16

We tested how a Single NI Unionist Party *could* do at the next election.

DUP + UUP + TUV: 38
A Unified Party: 38

devolvedelections.co.uk/blog/single-...

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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · Aug 15

A projection based on the latest
@belfasttelegraph.co.uk / @lucidtalk.bsky.social
poll for NI Assembly ‘27:

☘️ SF — 24
🦁 DUP — 16
🤝 AP — 14
🔷 UUP — 10
🌹 SDLP — 10
Ⓣ TUV — 12
✊ PBP — 2
🌱 GP — 1
⚫ Ind — 1

From devolvedelections.co.uk/northern-ire...

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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · Jul 31

Thanks, and no offence taken! We know they did badly before but a lot has changed - Labour's collapse mainly.

The projection from this poll has it a three way tie, all on very low shares (which does feel harsh on Labour).

Reform are a bit further back in our Nowcast average.

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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · Jul 31

We'll be ready!

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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · Jul 31

These numbers are very similar to the recent by-election results in Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse.

It puts Reform within 3% of winning in all three border seats.

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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · Jul 31

The latest @scotvoting.bsky.social / @yougov.co.uk poll for the next Holyrood election:

🎗️ SNP — 58
🌹 Lab — 24
🌳 Con — 8
🌱 GP — 10
🐤 LD — 10
➡️ Ref — 19
🔵 Alba — 0
⚪ Other — 0

devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/

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Reposted by Devolved Election Projections

Ireland Election Projections @irishelection.bsky.social · Jul 29

🗳️🇮🇪Who’s Winning? We Actually Have the Data.

We’ve launched irishelections.ie — the place where Irish election projections make sense.
📊 Real-time seat forecasts
📈 Constituency breakdowns
🤓 Politics, but with fewer opinions and more numbers

👉 irishelections.ie

Irish Election Projections

Create and share your own Irish election projections. Interactive, educational, and up-to-date!

irishelections.ie

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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · Jul 26

We have a little something for that too!

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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · Jul 26

Our latest Nowcast for the 2026 Senedd election:

Ref — 31 Seats
PC — 28
Lab — 25
Con — 6
LD — 4
GP — 2

devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/

Devolved Elections - Devolved Parliament Projection Tool

Create and share your own Devolved Parliament election projections. Interactive, educational, and up-to-date!

devolvedelections.co.uk

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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · Jul 26

Today's Nowcast for the next Assembly Election:

SF — 24 Seats
DUP — 20
AP — 15
UUP — 10
SDLP — 10
TUV — 10
GP — 1

devolvedelections.co.uk/northern-ire...

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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · Jul 26

Our current Scottish Parliamentary Nowcast:

SNP — 60 Seats
Lab — 22
Con — 12
GP — 11
LD — 7
Ref — 17
Alba — 0

devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/

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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · Jul 25

We're going to tweak this a bit more before we make it public, but we thought it was useful to show you how it *could* look.

devolvedelections.co.uk

Devolved Elections - Devolved Parliament Projection Tool

Create and share your own Devolved Parliament election projections. Interactive, educational, and up-to-date!

devolvedelections.co.uk

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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · Jul 25

In Scotland, Your Party could win list seats in most/all regions. They could cost Labour some constituency seats and possibly tip some Tory-SNP maginals over the line for the Conservatives.

This would all equalise on the list.

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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · Jul 25

In Wales, they could get 2 seats but could cost Labour 5! Reform and the Tories grabbing some 6th seats as the left splits.

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