Devolved Election Projections
@devolvedelections.bsky.social
A range of simple tools to create your own results of the Scottish, Welsh, Northern Irish and London Elections 🗳️
https://devolvedelections.co.uk/
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https://devolvedelections.co.uk/
Donate: https://buymeacoffee.com/devolvedelections
Our Projection on the latest Survation/True North Advisors poll for May's Holyrood Election
🎗️ SNP — 58
🌹 Lab — 19
➡️ Ref — 19
🌳 Con — 13
🐤 LD — 11
🌱 GP — 9
devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/
🎗️ SNP — 58
🌹 Lab — 19
➡️ Ref — 19
🌳 Con — 13
🐤 LD — 11
🌱 GP — 9
devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/
January 15, 2026 at 1:10 PM
Our Projection on the latest Survation/True North Advisors poll for May's Holyrood Election
🎗️ SNP — 58
🌹 Lab — 19
➡️ Ref — 19
🌳 Con — 13
🐤 LD — 11
🌱 GP — 9
devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/
🎗️ SNP — 58
🌹 Lab — 19
➡️ Ref — 19
🌳 Con — 13
🐤 LD — 11
🌱 GP — 9
devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/
A projection based on a remarkable @yougov.co.uk for @itvnews.bsky.social and @cardiffuni.bsky.social
🌼 PC — 40
➡️ Ref — 27
🌱 GP — 15
🌹 Lab — 6
🌳 Con — 5
🐤 LD — 3
devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/
🌼 PC — 40
➡️ Ref — 27
🌱 GP — 15
🌹 Lab — 6
🌳 Con — 5
🐤 LD — 3
devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/
January 13, 2026 at 6:56 PM
A projection based on a remarkable @yougov.co.uk for @itvnews.bsky.social and @cardiffuni.bsky.social
🌼 PC — 40
➡️ Ref — 27
🌱 GP — 15
🌹 Lab — 6
🌳 Con — 5
🐤 LD — 3
devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/
🌼 PC — 40
➡️ Ref — 27
🌱 GP — 15
🌹 Lab — 6
🌳 Con — 5
🐤 LD — 3
devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/
Our projection based on the latest @findoutnow.bsky.social poll for May's Senedd election.
➡️ Ref — 34
🌼 PC — 33
🌹 Lab — 10
🌱 GP — 9
🌳 Con — 7
🐤 LD — 3
From devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/
➡️ Ref — 34
🌼 PC — 33
🌹 Lab — 10
🌱 GP — 9
🌳 Con — 7
🐤 LD — 3
From devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/
January 11, 2026 at 2:34 PM
Our projection based on the latest @findoutnow.bsky.social poll for May's Senedd election.
➡️ Ref — 34
🌼 PC — 33
🌹 Lab — 10
🌱 GP — 9
🌳 Con — 7
🐤 LD — 3
From devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/
➡️ Ref — 34
🌼 PC — 33
🌹 Lab — 10
🌱 GP — 9
🌳 Con — 7
🐤 LD — 3
From devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/
A DevolvedElection Projection based on the latest @mileendinstitute.bsky.social / @savanta.bsky.social poll.
Lab — 11 Seats
Con — 4
Ref — 4
Greens — 4
LD — 2
Ind/Other — 0
Lab — 11 Seats
Con — 4
Ref — 4
Greens — 4
LD — 2
Ind/Other — 0
January 8, 2026 at 8:40 AM
A DevolvedElection Projection based on the latest @mileendinstitute.bsky.social / @savanta.bsky.social poll.
Lab — 11 Seats
Con — 4
Ref — 4
Greens — 4
LD — 2
Ind/Other — 0
Lab — 11 Seats
Con — 4
Ref — 4
Greens — 4
LD — 2
Ind/Other — 0
After some upgrades to our system our first projection of the year for the next NI Assembly:
☘️ SF — 22
🦁 DUP — 21
🤝 AP — 14
🔷 UUP — 10
🌹 SDLP — 9
Ⓣ TUV — 9
✊ PBP — 2
🌱 GP — 2
⚫ Ind — 1
devolvedelections.co.uk/northern-ire...
☘️ SF — 22
🦁 DUP — 21
🤝 AP — 14
🔷 UUP — 10
🌹 SDLP — 9
Ⓣ TUV — 9
✊ PBP — 2
🌱 GP — 2
⚫ Ind — 1
devolvedelections.co.uk/northern-ire...
January 1, 2026 at 4:49 PM
After some upgrades to our system our first projection of the year for the next NI Assembly:
☘️ SF — 22
🦁 DUP — 21
🤝 AP — 14
🔷 UUP — 10
🌹 SDLP — 9
Ⓣ TUV — 9
✊ PBP — 2
🌱 GP — 2
⚫ Ind — 1
devolvedelections.co.uk/northern-ire...
☘️ SF — 22
🦁 DUP — 21
🤝 AP — 14
🔷 UUP — 10
🌹 SDLP — 9
Ⓣ TUV — 9
✊ PBP — 2
🌱 GP — 2
⚫ Ind — 1
devolvedelections.co.uk/northern-ire...
After some upgrades to our system our first projection of the year for May's Scottish Parliamentary elections is:
SNP 🎗️ — 62
Lab 🌹 — 18
Con 🌳 — 11
GP 🌱 — 11
LD 🐤 — 10
Ref ➡️ — 17
Alba 🔵 — 0
devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/
SNP 🎗️ — 62
Lab 🌹 — 18
Con 🌳 — 11
GP 🌱 — 11
LD 🐤 — 10
Ref ➡️ — 17
Alba 🔵 — 0
devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/
January 1, 2026 at 3:14 PM
After some upgrades to our system our first projection of the year for May's Scottish Parliamentary elections is:
SNP 🎗️ — 62
Lab 🌹 — 18
Con 🌳 — 11
GP 🌱 — 11
LD 🐤 — 10
Ref ➡️ — 17
Alba 🔵 — 0
devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/
SNP 🎗️ — 62
Lab 🌹 — 18
Con 🌳 — 11
GP 🌱 — 11
LD 🐤 — 10
Ref ➡️ — 17
Alba 🔵 — 0
devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/
Exactly this.
Scotland, Wales & NI are ridiculously underpolled.
Between late September and Late November:
- Scotland had 2 polls (1 of those was commssioned by a party)
- Wales had 1 - despite one of the most remarkable by-elections in recent history.
- NI had 1
Westminster had over 40.
Scotland, Wales & NI are ridiculously underpolled.
Between late September and Late November:
- Scotland had 2 polls (1 of those was commssioned by a party)
- Wales had 1 - despite one of the most remarkable by-elections in recent history.
- NI had 1
Westminster had over 40.
Come for the chart of shifting party support, stay for the fury at the fact we're going to have one of the most consequential Scottish (and definitely most consequential Welsh) elections since devolution, yet the Westminster media can't stop speculating about PM Farage in 2029 long enough to care.
December 30, 2025 at 12:05 PM
Exactly this.
Scotland, Wales & NI are ridiculously underpolled.
Between late September and Late November:
- Scotland had 2 polls (1 of those was commssioned by a party)
- Wales had 1 - despite one of the most remarkable by-elections in recent history.
- NI had 1
Westminster had over 40.
Scotland, Wales & NI are ridiculously underpolled.
Between late September and Late November:
- Scotland had 2 polls (1 of those was commssioned by a party)
- Wales had 1 - despite one of the most remarkable by-elections in recent history.
- NI had 1
Westminster had over 40.
Our projection for the 2026 Scottish Parliamentary election based on the latest @findoutnow.bsky.social poll for @scotnational.bsky.social
🎗️ SNP — 58
➡️ Ref — 27
🌹 Lab — 13
🌱 GP — 13
🐤 LD — 10
🌳 Con — 8
🔵 Alba — 0
⚪ Other — 0
devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/
🎗️ SNP — 58
➡️ Ref — 27
🌹 Lab — 13
🌱 GP — 13
🐤 LD — 10
🌳 Con — 8
🔵 Alba — 0
⚪ Other — 0
devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/
December 29, 2025 at 6:50 PM
Our projection for the 2026 Scottish Parliamentary election based on the latest @findoutnow.bsky.social poll for @scotnational.bsky.social
🎗️ SNP — 58
➡️ Ref — 27
🌹 Lab — 13
🌱 GP — 13
🐤 LD — 10
🌳 Con — 8
🔵 Alba — 0
⚪ Other — 0
devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/
🎗️ SNP — 58
➡️ Ref — 27
🌹 Lab — 13
🌱 GP — 13
🐤 LD — 10
🌳 Con — 8
🔵 Alba — 0
⚪ Other — 0
devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/
Our projection for the next NI Assembly election:
☘️ SF — 23
🦁 DUP — 19
🤝 AP — 12
🔷 UUP — 10
🌹 SDLP — 11
Ⓣ TUV — 10
✊ PBP — 2
🌱 GP — 2
⚫ Ind — 1
devolvedelections.co.uk/northern-ire...
☘️ SF — 23
🦁 DUP — 19
🤝 AP — 12
🔷 UUP — 10
🌹 SDLP — 11
Ⓣ TUV — 10
✊ PBP — 2
🌱 GP — 2
⚫ Ind — 1
devolvedelections.co.uk/northern-ire...
December 21, 2025 at 12:34 PM
Our projection for the next NI Assembly election:
☘️ SF — 23
🦁 DUP — 19
🤝 AP — 12
🔷 UUP — 10
🌹 SDLP — 11
Ⓣ TUV — 10
✊ PBP — 2
🌱 GP — 2
⚫ Ind — 1
devolvedelections.co.uk/northern-ire...
☘️ SF — 23
🦁 DUP — 19
🤝 AP — 12
🔷 UUP — 10
🌹 SDLP — 11
Ⓣ TUV — 10
✊ PBP — 2
🌱 GP — 2
⚫ Ind — 1
devolvedelections.co.uk/northern-ire...
Our latest Nowcast projection for Scottish Parliament election 2026:
SNP 🎗️ — 63
Lab 🌹 — 18
Ref ➡️ — 17
Con 🌳 — 11
GP 🌱 — 10
LD 🐤 — 10
Alba 🔵 — 0
Other ⚪ — 0
devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/
SNP 🎗️ — 63
Lab 🌹 — 18
Ref ➡️ — 17
Con 🌳 — 11
GP 🌱 — 10
LD 🐤 — 10
Alba 🔵 — 0
Other ⚪ — 0
devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/
December 21, 2025 at 11:44 AM
Our latest Nowcast projection for Scottish Parliament election 2026:
SNP 🎗️ — 63
Lab 🌹 — 18
Ref ➡️ — 17
Con 🌳 — 11
GP 🌱 — 10
LD 🐤 — 10
Alba 🔵 — 0
Other ⚪ — 0
devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/
SNP 🎗️ — 63
Lab 🌹 — 18
Ref ➡️ — 17
Con 🌳 — 11
GP 🌱 — 10
LD 🐤 — 10
Alba 🔵 — 0
Other ⚪ — 0
devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/
After some recent polls our Nowcast for Senedd 2026 is:
➡️ Ref — 37
🌼 PC — 33
🌹 Lab — 13
🌳 Con — 5
🌱 GP — 5
🐤 LD — 3
devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/
➡️ Ref — 37
🌼 PC — 33
🌹 Lab — 13
🌳 Con — 5
🌱 GP — 5
🐤 LD — 3
devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/
December 20, 2025 at 1:02 PM
After some recent polls our Nowcast for Senedd 2026 is:
➡️ Ref — 37
🌼 PC — 33
🌹 Lab — 13
🌳 Con — 5
🌱 GP — 5
🐤 LD — 3
devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/
➡️ Ref — 37
🌼 PC — 33
🌹 Lab — 13
🌳 Con — 5
🌱 GP — 5
🐤 LD — 3
devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/
We ran the new Senedd numbers 1000 times with regional variation and different polling errors.
Welsh First Minister Eluned Morgan holds her seat just 15% of the time.
Rhun ap Iorwerth is safe as houses.
devolvedelections.co.uk/wales-projects
Welsh First Minister Eluned Morgan holds her seat just 15% of the time.
Rhun ap Iorwerth is safe as houses.
devolvedelections.co.uk/wales-projects
December 17, 2025 at 9:26 AM
We ran the new Senedd numbers 1000 times with regional variation and different polling errors.
Welsh First Minister Eluned Morgan holds her seat just 15% of the time.
Rhun ap Iorwerth is safe as houses.
devolvedelections.co.uk/wales-projects
Welsh First Minister Eluned Morgan holds her seat just 15% of the time.
Rhun ap Iorwerth is safe as houses.
devolvedelections.co.uk/wales-projects
A projection on that shock @cardiffuni.bsky.social / @yougov.co.uk poll
🌼 PC — 39
➡️ Ref — 37
🌹 Lab — 6
🌱 GP — 6
🌳 Con — 5
🐤 LD — 3
devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/
🌼 PC — 39
➡️ Ref — 37
🌹 Lab — 6
🌱 GP — 6
🌳 Con — 5
🐤 LD — 3
devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/
December 17, 2025 at 9:08 AM
A projection on that shock @cardiffuni.bsky.social / @yougov.co.uk poll
🌼 PC — 39
➡️ Ref — 37
🌹 Lab — 6
🌱 GP — 6
🌳 Con — 5
🐤 LD — 3
devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/
🌼 PC — 39
➡️ Ref — 37
🌹 Lab — 6
🌱 GP — 6
🌳 Con — 5
🐤 LD — 3
devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/
A projection based on the latest @irishinstitute.bsky.social for the next NI Assembly election:
☘️ SF — 25
🦁 DUP — 20
🤝 AP — 16
🔷 UUP — 10
Ⓣ TUV — 7
🌹 SDLP — 6
🌱 GP — 3
✊ PBP — 2
⚫ Ind — 1
devolvedelections.co.uk/northern-ire...
☘️ SF — 25
🦁 DUP — 20
🤝 AP — 16
🔷 UUP — 10
Ⓣ TUV — 7
🌹 SDLP — 6
🌱 GP — 3
✊ PBP — 2
⚫ Ind — 1
devolvedelections.co.uk/northern-ire...
December 15, 2025 at 11:50 AM
A projection based on the latest @irishinstitute.bsky.social for the next NI Assembly election:
☘️ SF — 25
🦁 DUP — 20
🤝 AP — 16
🔷 UUP — 10
Ⓣ TUV — 7
🌹 SDLP — 6
🌱 GP — 3
✊ PBP — 2
⚫ Ind — 1
devolvedelections.co.uk/northern-ire...
☘️ SF — 25
🦁 DUP — 20
🤝 AP — 16
🔷 UUP — 10
Ⓣ TUV — 7
🌹 SDLP — 6
🌱 GP — 3
✊ PBP — 2
⚫ Ind — 1
devolvedelections.co.uk/northern-ire...
Our projection for Senedd ‘26 based on the latest @nation.cymru / Beaufort Research Poll:
➡️ Ref — 30
🌼 PC — 29
🌹 Lab — 22
🌳 Con — 8
🌱 GP — 7
If this happened, it could be wipeout for the Lib Dems and a huge moment for the Greens.
From @devolvedelections.bsky.social
➡️ Ref — 30
🌼 PC — 29
🌹 Lab — 22
🌳 Con — 8
🌱 GP — 7
If this happened, it could be wipeout for the Lib Dems and a huge moment for the Greens.
From @devolvedelections.bsky.social
December 12, 2025 at 4:37 PM
Our projection for Senedd ‘26 based on the latest @nation.cymru / Beaufort Research Poll:
➡️ Ref — 30
🌼 PC — 29
🌹 Lab — 22
🌳 Con — 8
🌱 GP — 7
If this happened, it could be wipeout for the Lib Dems and a huge moment for the Greens.
From @devolvedelections.bsky.social
➡️ Ref — 30
🌼 PC — 29
🌹 Lab — 22
🌳 Con — 8
🌱 GP — 7
If this happened, it could be wipeout for the Lib Dems and a huge moment for the Greens.
From @devolvedelections.bsky.social
Our projection for Scottish Parl '26 based on the latest @Ipsos_in_the_UK / @STVNews poll
🎗️ SNP — 63
🌹 Lab — 18
🌳 Con — 10
🌱 GP — 16
🐤 LD — 5
➡️ Ref — 17
🔵 Alba — 0
⚪ Other — 0
devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/
🎗️ SNP — 63
🌹 Lab — 18
🌳 Con — 10
🌱 GP — 16
🐤 LD — 5
➡️ Ref — 17
🔵 Alba — 0
⚪ Other — 0
devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/
December 10, 2025 at 1:31 PM
Our projection for Scottish Parl '26 based on the latest @Ipsos_in_the_UK / @STVNews poll
🎗️ SNP — 63
🌹 Lab — 18
🌳 Con — 10
🌱 GP — 16
🐤 LD — 5
➡️ Ref — 17
🔵 Alba — 0
⚪ Other — 0
devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/
🎗️ SNP — 63
🌹 Lab — 18
🌳 Con — 10
🌱 GP — 16
🐤 LD — 5
➡️ Ref — 17
🔵 Alba — 0
⚪ Other — 0
devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/
Reposted by Devolved Election Projections
An IrishElections projection on the latest Ireland/Thinks
Sunday Independent poll
☘️ Sinn Féin — 50 Seats
🟩 Fianna Fáil — 45
⭐ Fine Gael — 37
🟪 Social Democrats — 16
💬 Independent — 8 🌹
Labour — 7
🟢 Independent Ireland — 6
🌳 Aontú — 4
✊ PBP-S — 1
Sunday Independent poll
☘️ Sinn Féin — 50 Seats
🟩 Fianna Fáil — 45
⭐ Fine Gael — 37
🟪 Social Democrats — 16
💬 Independent — 8 🌹
Labour — 7
🟢 Independent Ireland — 6
🌳 Aontú — 4
✊ PBP-S — 1
December 7, 2025 at 5:16 PM
An IrishElections projection on the latest Ireland/Thinks
Sunday Independent poll
☘️ Sinn Féin — 50 Seats
🟩 Fianna Fáil — 45
⭐ Fine Gael — 37
🟪 Social Democrats — 16
💬 Independent — 8 🌹
Labour — 7
🟢 Independent Ireland — 6
🌳 Aontú — 4
✊ PBP-S — 1
Sunday Independent poll
☘️ Sinn Féin — 50 Seats
🟩 Fianna Fáil — 45
⭐ Fine Gael — 37
🟪 Social Democrats — 16
💬 Independent — 8 🌹
Labour — 7
🟢 Independent Ireland — 6
🌳 Aontú — 4
✊ PBP-S — 1
Our latest experiment looking at Reform UK's chances in Northern Ireland based on the most recent @lucidtalk.bsky.social poll, in @sluggerotoolepols.bsky.social
sluggerotoole.com/2025/11/15/s...
sluggerotoole.com/2025/11/15/s...
Some tentative prospects for Reform UK in Northern Ireland…
Eoghan Kelly is a postdoc on the University of Edinburgh’s Scottish Election Study and has lectured in Irish politics at Queen’s. Here, he uses his new election projection site to see how reform might...
sluggerotoole.com
November 18, 2025 at 8:02 PM
Our latest experiment looking at Reform UK's chances in Northern Ireland based on the most recent @lucidtalk.bsky.social poll, in @sluggerotoolepols.bsky.social
sluggerotoole.com/2025/11/15/s...
sluggerotoole.com/2025/11/15/s...
Our Nowcast for the next NI Assembly.
☘️ SF — 22
🦁 DUP — 17
🤝 AP — 12
🔷 UUP — 10
🌹 SDLP — 12
Ⓣ TUV — 12
✊ PBP — 2
🌱 GP — 2
⚫ Ind — 1
There's a tightening battle within unionism as the TUV reel in the DUP.
Alliance and Sinn Féin are also on the slide, with the Greens and SDLP ticking up.
☘️ SF — 22
🦁 DUP — 17
🤝 AP — 12
🔷 UUP — 10
🌹 SDLP — 12
Ⓣ TUV — 12
✊ PBP — 2
🌱 GP — 2
⚫ Ind — 1
There's a tightening battle within unionism as the TUV reel in the DUP.
Alliance and Sinn Féin are also on the slide, with the Greens and SDLP ticking up.
November 8, 2025 at 11:59 AM
Our Nowcast for the next NI Assembly.
☘️ SF — 22
🦁 DUP — 17
🤝 AP — 12
🔷 UUP — 10
🌹 SDLP — 12
Ⓣ TUV — 12
✊ PBP — 2
🌱 GP — 2
⚫ Ind — 1
There's a tightening battle within unionism as the TUV reel in the DUP.
Alliance and Sinn Féin are also on the slide, with the Greens and SDLP ticking up.
☘️ SF — 22
🦁 DUP — 17
🤝 AP — 12
🔷 UUP — 10
🌹 SDLP — 12
Ⓣ TUV — 12
✊ PBP — 2
🌱 GP — 2
⚫ Ind — 1
There's a tightening battle within unionism as the TUV reel in the DUP.
Alliance and Sinn Féin are also on the slide, with the Greens and SDLP ticking up.
Our current Nowcast for the Senedd 2026 election.
➡️ Ref — 37
🌼 PC — 28
🌹 Lab — 21
🌳 Con — 5
🐤 LD — 3
🌱 GP — 2
There have been no polls since Plaid's convincing victory in Caerphilly so we can't see if it's had a broader effect.
devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/
➡️ Ref — 37
🌼 PC — 28
🌹 Lab — 21
🌳 Con — 5
🐤 LD — 3
🌱 GP — 2
There have been no polls since Plaid's convincing victory in Caerphilly so we can't see if it's had a broader effect.
devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/
November 8, 2025 at 11:48 AM
Our current Nowcast for the Senedd 2026 election.
➡️ Ref — 37
🌼 PC — 28
🌹 Lab — 21
🌳 Con — 5
🐤 LD — 3
🌱 GP — 2
There have been no polls since Plaid's convincing victory in Caerphilly so we can't see if it's had a broader effect.
devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/
➡️ Ref — 37
🌼 PC — 28
🌹 Lab — 21
🌳 Con — 5
🐤 LD — 3
🌱 GP — 2
There have been no polls since Plaid's convincing victory in Caerphilly so we can't see if it's had a broader effect.
devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/
There's not been a lot of polling for the 2026 Scottish Parliament recently so here's the current lay of the land.
SNP 🎗️ — 62
Lab 🌹 — 18
Con 🌳 — 12
GP 🌱 — 10
LD 🐤 — 10
Ref ➡️ — 17
Other ⚪ — 0
devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/
SNP 🎗️ — 62
Lab 🌹 — 18
Con 🌳 — 12
GP 🌱 — 10
LD 🐤 — 10
Ref ➡️ — 17
Other ⚪ — 0
devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/
Devolved Elections - Devolved Parliament Projection Tool
Create and share your own Devolved Parliament election projections. Interactive, educational, and up-to-date!
devolvedelections.co.uk
November 8, 2025 at 11:44 AM
There's not been a lot of polling for the 2026 Scottish Parliament recently so here's the current lay of the land.
SNP 🎗️ — 62
Lab 🌹 — 18
Con 🌳 — 12
GP 🌱 — 10
LD 🐤 — 10
Ref ➡️ — 17
Other ⚪ — 0
devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/
SNP 🎗️ — 62
Lab 🌹 — 18
Con 🌳 — 12
GP 🌱 — 10
LD 🐤 — 10
Ref ➡️ — 17
Other ⚪ — 0
devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/
Wales overnight, Scotland the next day. Perfect.
Hopefully, the Senedd doesn't follow Scotland's lead by selfishly insisting we get some sleep.
Hopefully, the Senedd doesn't follow Scotland's lead by selfishly insisting we get some sleep.
Massive change for next year's Holyrood election: there'll be no overnight count. Votes to be counted on the Friday instead.
October 29, 2025 at 1:57 PM
Wales overnight, Scotland the next day. Perfect.
Hopefully, the Senedd doesn't follow Scotland's lead by selfishly insisting we get some sleep.
Hopefully, the Senedd doesn't follow Scotland's lead by selfishly insisting we get some sleep.
A projection based on the latest Beaufort Research Senedd poll for @NationCymru:
➡️ Ref — 35
🌹 Lab — 24
🌼 PC — 24
🌱 GP — 6
🌳 Con — 5
🐤 LD — 2
from: devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/
➡️ Ref — 35
🌹 Lab — 24
🌼 PC — 24
🌱 GP — 6
🌳 Con — 5
🐤 LD — 2
from: devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/
October 21, 2025 at 10:40 AM
A projection based on the latest Beaufort Research Senedd poll for @NationCymru:
➡️ Ref — 35
🌹 Lab — 24
🌼 PC — 24
🌱 GP — 6
🌳 Con — 5
🐤 LD — 2
from: devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/
➡️ Ref — 35
🌹 Lab — 24
🌼 PC — 24
🌱 GP — 6
🌳 Con — 5
🐤 LD — 2
from: devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/
We've launched a new way of understanding polling error in Wales.
We run the Senedd election 1000x with realistic polling errors and regionalised swings.
It tracks parties, individual seats and ideologies.
We'll update it regularly to show changes.
👉 www.devolvedelections.co.uk/wales-projects
We run the Senedd election 1000x with realistic polling errors and regionalised swings.
It tracks parties, individual seats and ideologies.
We'll update it regularly to show changes.
👉 www.devolvedelections.co.uk/wales-projects
October 11, 2025 at 12:52 PM
We've launched a new way of understanding polling error in Wales.
We run the Senedd election 1000x with realistic polling errors and regionalised swings.
It tracks parties, individual seats and ideologies.
We'll update it regularly to show changes.
👉 www.devolvedelections.co.uk/wales-projects
We run the Senedd election 1000x with realistic polling errors and regionalised swings.
It tracks parties, individual seats and ideologies.
We'll update it regularly to show changes.
👉 www.devolvedelections.co.uk/wales-projects
Want to see the range of possible outcomes at the next NI Assembly election if the polls aren't perfect?
We regularly run 1000 simulations to see how likely it is that each party wins their target seats.
Wales, Scotland and London are in the works.
👉 devolvedelections.co.uk/ni-projects/
We regularly run 1000 simulations to see how likely it is that each party wins their target seats.
Wales, Scotland and London are in the works.
👉 devolvedelections.co.uk/ni-projects/
October 9, 2025 at 12:12 PM
Want to see the range of possible outcomes at the next NI Assembly election if the polls aren't perfect?
We regularly run 1000 simulations to see how likely it is that each party wins their target seats.
Wales, Scotland and London are in the works.
👉 devolvedelections.co.uk/ni-projects/
We regularly run 1000 simulations to see how likely it is that each party wins their target seats.
Wales, Scotland and London are in the works.
👉 devolvedelections.co.uk/ni-projects/