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Ed Hill

@edmhill.bsky.social

2.9K followers 960 following 940 posts

Researcher in mathematical epidemiology & infectious disease modelling. Affiliations: Civic Health Innovation Labs (CHIL) @livunichil.bsky.social, @thepandemicinst.bsky.social, @livuni-phps.bsky.social‬, @livuni-iph.bsky.social, @liverpooluni.bsky.social.

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Ed Hill @edmhill.bsky.social · 16d

1/ 🎧 New 'Health Data Decoded' episode! #SciComm

❓ How can you build coalitions + drive impact at scale across public, private & third sectors?

👤 Guest: Annemarie Naylor, Director of HealthTech & Innovation Growth at University of Liverpool!

📹 YouTube: www.youtube.com/watch?v=w6Va...

📻 Spotify👇

Health Data Decoded | Civic HealthTech Innovation Zone (CHI-Zone) – Annemarie Naylor [Ep. 7]

open.spotify.com

Reposted by Ed Hill

Jess Bridgen @jessicabridgen.bsky.social · 2d

A PhD opportunity to work on real-time modelling and calibration methods with me and Chris Jewell at Lancaster University iddjobs.org/jobs/real-ti...

IDDjobs — Real-time Modelling for Infection Control. PhD in Mathematical AI. — Lancaster University

Find infectious disease dynamics modelling jobs, studentships, and fellowships.

Ed Hill @edmhill.bsky.social · 15h

📰 DEFRA avian influenza update on 11 Oct 2025 #IDEpi #OneHealth 🧪

🐦 HPAI H5N1 was confirmed in captive birds near Stockbridge, Hampshire.

📊 80 confirmed HPAI H5N1 cases in poultry & other captive birds in UK from 04 Nov 2024.
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England: 71
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 Scotland: 3
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 Wales: 2
🇬🇧 Northern Ireland: 4

Bird flu: near Stockbridge, Test Valley, Hampshire (AIV 2025 63)

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 was confirmed in captive birds near Stockbridge, Test Valley, Hampshire (AIV 2025 63) on 11 October 2025.

Reposted by Ed Hill

Public Health, Policy and Systems @ University of Liverpool @livuni-phps.bsky.social · 1d

📣 Event news: Our first PHPS Postgraduate Research presentation day was held on 16 Sep 2025!

🎤 Event had two forms of presentation: 5-minute lightning talks and 15-minute talks.

👥 Contributions from 11 PGRs

🎉 Congrats to talk prize winners Louise Allen (5 min talk) & Rosalyn Arnold (15 min talk)!

Photo of some of the participants from the University of Liverpool Public Health, Policy and Systems Postgraduate Research presentation day, held on 16 September 2025 in The Library at the Guild.

The presentation day featured two forms of presentation (5-minute lightning talks and 15-minute talks), with contributions from 11 postgraduate researchers at different stages of their research to a broad audience that provided varied feedback, rich discussions and networking opportunities.

Many staff were also in attendance to support our PGR community and learn about their exciting research.

Prizes were awarded to the following talks:
5-min talk: Louise Allen - “A Core Outcome Set for Children with Cerebral Visual Impairment plus Profound Learning Disabilities”
15-min talk: Rosalyn Arnold - “Food insecurity in households with children”

Ed Hill @edmhill.bsky.social · 1d

6/ Future JUNIPER Fellowship plans

💪 This was the first round of the JUNIPER fellowship scheme & it was highly competitive showing the strength of ECRs in the field.

⏰ Anticipate further rounds of fellowships being awarded, with the next call for applications planned for January 2026.

/end

Ed Hill @edmhill.bsky.social · 1d

5/ JUNIPER Fellow spotlight: Katharine Sherratt (@kathsherratt.bsky.social) - LSHTM

🧪 Research interests: Evaluating “team science” approaches to modelling work during infectious disease outbreaks

📋 Fellowship plans: Work across JUNIPER network to to explore challenges in evaluating model outputs

Katharine Sherratt

London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine

Katharine Sherratt is a research fellow at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. Her research is on real time analysis and modelling during public health crises with a particular focus on rapid evidence synthesis and methods for evaluating the quality and impact of modelling work. She is particularly interested in developing and evaluating collaborative “team science” approaches to modelling work during infectious disease outbreaks. Previously Katharine worked at the Wellcome trust before training in epidemiology. During the COVID-19 response, Katharine contributed to the UK’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies and developing modelling infrastructure for the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control.

Ed Hill @edmhill.bsky.social · 1d

4/ JUNIPER Fellow spotlight: Joe Hilton (@joebhilton.bsky.social) - University of Manchester

🧪 Research interests: Role of population heterogeneity in different aspects of public health

📋 Fellowship plans: Lead JUNIPER activities that bridge gap between health economics & mathematical epidemiology

Joe Hilton

University of Manchester

Joe Hilton is a research fellow in mathematical modelling at the Manchester Centre for Health Economics (MCHE) within the University of Manchester, with a background in infectious disease epidemiology. He is interested in the role of population heterogeneity in different aspects of public health, ranging from household-level patterns of viral transmission to risk-stratified screening and treatment programs for non-communicable diseases. His research includes case studies of specific diseases, outbreaks, and policies, as well as methodological work focused on developing new techniques for modelling and inference, with a focus on stochastic processes and Bayesian statistics. A key component of Joe’s role within MCHE is to bridge the gap between health economics and mathematical epidemiology, both by developing new standards for simulation and uncertainty quantification in health economic analyses and by bringing economic insights about the value of interventions and information into the study of infectious disease control policies.

Ed Hill @edmhill.bsky.social · 1d

3/ JUNIPER Fellow spotlight: Emilie Finch (@emiliefinch.bsky.social) - University of Cambridge

🧪 Research interests: Role of population immunity, human behaviour & climate in driving viral transmission

📋 Fellowship plans: Lead activities on integrating novel data streams within epidemic models

Emilie Finch

University of Cambridge
Emilie is a postdoctoral researcher in the Pathogen Dynamics Unit at the University of Cambridge. Her research focuses on developing mathematical and statistical models to understand the drivers of arboviral transmission, assess future epidemic potential, and evaluate the impact of interventions. She is particularly interested in understanding the role of immunity, climate and behaviour on outbreak dynamics, and her current work involves modelling vaccine and Wolbachia-based strategies for dengue control. She previously completed a PhD at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine and also worked for the UK Health Security Agency modelling team.

Ed Hill @edmhill.bsky.social · 1d

2/ JUNIPER Fellows activities

💻 Help lead research activities within the JUNIPER partnership

🏫 Undertake research visits to relevant JUNIPER members

👓 Input into JUNIPER's longer term strategic vision

💬 Work with the Plus magazine team to develop skills communicating their work to non-experts

Three promising early career researchers from the JUNIPER partnership have been awarded fellowships as part of a new scheme recognising their role in our network and their potential to make a significant contribution to the epidemic modelling community in the near future.

The JUNIPER fellowship scheme was launched in summer 2025 with the aim of supporting early career epidemic modellers to develop leadership skills and grow their research network as they transition to becoming independent researchers. Fellows will help lead research activities within the JUNIPER partnership, undertake research visits to relevant JUNIPER members and input into the longer term strategic vision for the partnership. They will also work with the Plus magazine team to develop skills in communicating their work to non-experts.

Ed Hill @edmhill.bsky.social · 1d

1/ Congrats to first 3️⃣ awardees of a new JUNIPER fellowship scheme supporting early career researchers (ECRs) 🧪 #IDsky

JUNIPER fellowship scheme aims:

▶️ Support ECR epidemic modellers to develop leadership skills

▶️ Grow their research network as they transition to becoming independent researchers

JUNIPER @juniper-network.bsky.social · 3d

We're really excited to announce the first awardees of the new JUNIPER fellowship scheme focused on supporting ECRS: @kathsherratt.bsky.social @joebhilton.bsky.social & @emiliefinch.bsky.social . Find out more about our new fellows here: maths.org/juniper/arti...

JUNIPER welcomes first awardees of new fellowship scheme focused on supporting early career researchers | Juniper

Three promising early career researchers from the JUNIPER partnership have been awarded fellowships as part of a new scheme recognising their role in our network and their potential to make a signific...

Ed Hill @edmhill.bsky.social · 2d

5/ Resources

Report 🔗: www.gov.uk/government/s...

National flu & COVID-19 surveillance data: 9 October 2025 (week 341)

🔗: assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/68e795...

National flu & COVID-19 surveillance reports: 2025 to 2026 season repository

🔗: www.gov.uk/government/s...

/end

National flu and COVID-19 surveillance reports: 2025 to 2026 season

National influenza (flu) and COVID-19 report, monitoring COVID-19 activity, seasonal flu and other seasonal respiratory illnesses.

Ed Hill @edmhill.bsky.social · 2d

4/ Seasonal influenza vaccine uptake in GP patients: 2- & 3-year-old children

📊 Data up to end of week 40 2025 (05 Oct 2025), from 99.1% of GP practices reporting weekly vaccine uptake data

▶️ 18.0% in all 2 year olds
▶️ 17.8% in all 3 year olds

💉 Uptake vs equivalent week in 2024/25: ↘️

Influenza vaccine uptake in GP patients

Weekly vaccine uptake data is provisional.

Influenza vaccination is reported by GP practice through the ImmForm website. ImmForm provides a secure online platform for vaccine uptake data collection for several immunisation surveys, including the seasonal influenza vaccine uptake collection. Details can be found at sources of surveillance data for influenza, COVID-19 and other respiratory viruses: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/sources-of-surveillance-data-for-influenza-covid-19-and-other-respiratory-viruses#vaccine-uptake

For the 2025 to 2026 season’s vaccination programme, as in previous seasons children and pregnant women have been eligible since 1 September. For this current season and the previous season (2025 to 2026 and 2024 to 2025 seasons respectively), adult groups (excluding pregnant women) were eligible from the start of October (01 October 2025 and 03 October 2024 respectively), rather than 1 September as in previous seasons. See the Timing section of the annual flu letter for more information: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/national-flu-immunisation-programme-plan-2025-to-2026

Up to the end of week 40 of 2025 (Sunday 5 October 2025), the provisional proportion of people in England who had received an influenza vaccine this season in targeted groups was as follows:

Children (99.1% of GP practices reporting):
- 18.0% of children aged 2 years
- 17.8% in children aged 3 years

Up to the end of week 40 of 2025 (Sunday 5 October 2025), the provisional proportion of people in England who had received an influenza vaccine this season in targeted groups was as follows:

Children (99.1% of GP practices reporting):
- 18.0% of children aged 2 years
- 17.8% in children aged 3 years

Ed Hill @edmhill.bsky.social · 2d

3/ Vaccine uptake in GP patients

💉 Provisional data up to 05 Oct 2025, from 99.2% of GP practices reporting weekly vaccine uptake

▶️ 65+ years: 20.3% (⬆️ vs equivalent week in 2024/2025)
▶️ Under 65 years in clinical risk group: 8.7% (⬆️ vs equiv wk 24/25)
▶️ Pregnant women: 16.6% (⬆️ vs equiv wk 24/25)

Influenza vaccine uptake in GP patients.

Weekly vaccine uptake data is provisional.

Influenza vaccination is reported by GP practice through the ImmForm website. ImmForm provides a secure online platform for vaccine uptake data collection for several immunisation surveys, including the seasonal influenza vaccine uptake collection. Details can be found at sources of surveillance data for influenza, COVID-19 and other respiratory viruses: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/sources-of-surveillance-data-for-influenza-covid-19-and-other-respiratory-viruses#vaccine-uptake

For the 2025 to 2026 season’s vaccination programme, as in previous seasons children and pregnant women have been eligible since 1 September. For this current season and the previous season (2025 to 2026 and 2024 to 2025 seasons respectively), adult groups (excluding pregnant women) were eligible from the start of October (01 October 2025 and 03 October 2024 respectively), rather than 1 September as in previous seasons. See the Timing section of the annual flu letter for more information: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/national-flu-immunisation-programme-plan-2025-to-2026

Up to the end of week 40 of 2025 (Sunday 5 October 2025), the provisional proportion of people in England who had received an influenza vaccine this season in targeted groups was as follows:

Adults (99.2% of GP practices reporting through Immform):

- 8.7% in those aged under 65 years in a clinical risk group
- 16.6% in all pregnant women
- 20.3% in all those aged over 65 years

For pregnant women in the previous season (2024 to 2025 season) data should be interpreted with caution due to issues with the denominator for this group at that time in the previous season.

Up to the end of week 40 of 2025 (Sunday 5 October 2025), the provisional proportion of people in England who had received an influenza vaccine this season in targeted groups was as follows:

Adults (99.2% of GP practices reporting through Immform):

- 8.7% in those aged under 65 years in a clinical risk group
- 16.6% in all pregnant women
- 20.3% in all those aged over 65 years

For pregnant women in the previous season (2024 to 2025 season) data should be interpreted with caution due to issues with the denominator for this group at that time in the previous season.

Ed Hill @edmhill.bsky.social · 2d

2/ Influenza activity level (AL) indicators

🔬 Lab surveillance influenza positivity: ⬆️ (AL: Baseline)

🥼 Influenza-like illnesses GP consultations: ⬆️ (AL: Baseline)

🧬 GP swabbing positivity: ⬇️ (AL: Baseline)

🏥 Hospital admissions: N/A (AL: Baseline)

🚑 ICU admissions: N/A (AL: Baseline)

Influenza activity showed increasing activity across indicators, particularly in young adults, and was at baseline levels. Emergency department (ED) attendances for influenza-like-illness (ILI) increased. The number of influenza-confirmed acute respiratory infections (ARI) remained low.

Weekly influenza vaccine uptake for the 2025 to 2026 season is reported for the first time this season. Data is for week 40 (up to 5 October 2025).

Indicator: Laboratory surveillance
Trend: Increasing
Level: Baseline
Data: Influenza positivity increased with a weekly mean positivity rate of 3.3% compared with 1.9% in the previous week.

Indicator: Influenza-like illnesses (ILI) General Practice (GP) consultations
Trend: Increasing
Level: Baseline
Data: The weekly ILI consultation rate increased to 4.2 per 100,000 registered population in participating GP practices compared with 3.3 per 100,000 in the previous week.

Indicator: GP swabbing positivity
Trend: Decreasing
Level: Baseline
Data: In week 39 2025, among all tested samples, 0.4% were positive for influenza, compared with 0.9% in the previous week

Indicator: Hospital admissions
Trend: Not available
Level: Baseline
Data: The overall weekly hospital admission rate for influenza was 0.67 per 100,000. This surveillance formally starts in week 40 so comparisons to the previous week are not possible.

Indicator: ICU/HDU admissions
Trend: Not available
Level: Baseline
Data: The overall weekly ICU or HDU admission rate for influenza was 0.03 per 100,000. This surveillance formally starts in week 40 so comparisons to the previous week are not possible.

Laboratory-confirmed cases

The Second Generation Surveillance System (SGSS) captures test result information for notifiable infectious diseases, including COVID-19 and influenza, from laboratories in England. The unified sample dataset (USD), used to calculate the percentage tests positive for SARS-CoV-2 among all SARS-CoV-2 tests, stores all SARS-CoV-2 test results reported to SGSS, Respiratory DataMart, and UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) laboratories.

As of 7 October 2025, influenza positivity in week 40 increased with a weekly average positivity rate of 3.3% compared with 1.9% in the previous week.

Influenza positivity rates were highest in those aged between 15 and 24 years at a weekly average positivity rate of 17.7%. This has increased from 9.3% among those aged between 15 and 24 years in week 39.

Influenza hospital admissions

Surveillance of influenza hospitalisations to all levels of care is based on data from a small sentinel network of acute NHS trusts in England.

Please note that SARI Watch data is provisional and subject to retrospective updates. Rates are presented per 100,000 trust catchment population.

Influenza hospitalisations to all levels of care in week 40 2025 based on 24 sentinel NHS trusts in England were as follows:
- the overall weekly hospital admission rate for influenza was 0.67 per 100,000. This surveillance formally starts in week 40 so comparisons to the previous week are not possible
- this rate is in the baseline impact range (less than 1.95 per 100,000)
- hospital admission rates for influenza were highest in those aged 85 years and over (2.89 per 100,000).
- there were 71 new hospital admissions for influenza (58 influenza A(not subtyped), 4 influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, 5 influenza A(H3N2), and 4 influenza B)

Influenza ICU or HDU admissions

Surveillance of admissions to ICU or HDU for influenza is mandatory with data required from all acute NHS trusts in England.

Please note that SARI Watch data is provisional and subject to retrospective updates. Rates are presented per 100,000 trust catchment population.

Influenza ICU-HDU admissions in week 4 2025 based on 105 NHS trusts in England were as follows:
- he overall ICU or HDU rate for influenza remained stable at 0.03 per 100,000. This surveillance formally starts in week 40 so comparisons to the previous week are not possible
- this rate is in the baseline impact range (less than 0.1 per 100,000)
- there were 13 new ICU or HDU admissions for influenza (11 influenza A(not subtyped), 1 influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, 0 influenza A(H3N2), and 1 influenza B)

Ed Hill @edmhill.bsky.social · 2d

1/ Seasonal influenza summary from latest @ukhsa.bsky.social surveillance report. #IDSky #EpiSky 🧪

🗓️ Based on data up to week 40 2025 (29 Sep – 05 Oct 2025)

📊 Seasonal influenza at baseline levels in England, though activity increasing across indicators.

Report 🔗: www.gov.uk/government/s...

National flu and COVID-19 surveillance report: 9 October 2025 (week 41)

Reposted by Ed Hill

Alessia Melegaro @alemelegaro.bsky.social · 2d

New preprint out:

Interesting data on vaccination and other preventive behaviours across different EU countries.

Social contact data for disease transmission as well as discussion matrices for opinion dynamics.

IMMUNE study funded by the @european
@dondenacentre.bsky.social

elicolosi.bsky.social @elicolosi.bsky.social · 3d

🚀 New preprint alert!

“Advancing coupled behavioural-epidemic models: An interdisciplinary framework for the collection of empirical data”

🔗 www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...

1/6

Advancing coupled behavioural-epidemic models: An interdisciplinary framework for the collection of empirical data

Infection control requires integrating behavioural dynamics into epidemic models. However, models often overlook behavioural complexity due to limited empirical data. We adopted an interdisciplinary a...

www.medrxiv.org

Reposted by Ed Hill

Prof. Michael Fuhrer @michaelsfuhrer.bsky.social · 6d

The UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) has been estimating excess deaths in the UK due to Covid-19 and influenza since 2022.

Here’s a visualization of their latest results. I’ll walk you through it.

www.gov.uk/government/s...

1/

Reposted by Ed Hill

The Pandemic Institute @thepandemicinst.bsky.social · 10d

Great first day of our Scientific Meeting, hearing from a range of our funded projects plus colleagues from @ukhsa.bsky.social, FIND, Dstl, @cepi.net and more #TPI2025

Reposted by Ed Hill

Adam Kucharski @adamjkucharski.bsky.social · 11d

At our recent @lshtm.bsky.social event on misinformation, Chris Whitty gave some useful reflections on common causes and some important considerations for handling it.

Full event: www.youtube.com/live/H_nClQ2...

Ed Hill @edmhill.bsky.social · 11d

4/ Episode summary continued

5️⃣ Public Participation and Data Practices – Emily Rempel [Ep. 5]

6️⃣ Health Economics and Equity at Liverpool – Liz Camacho & Will Whitaker [Ep. 6]

7️⃣ Civic HealthTech Innovation Zone (CHI-Zone) – Annemarie Naylor [Ep. 7]

/end

Ed Hill @edmhill.bsky.social · 11d

3/ Episode summary -

1️⃣ Who are we? - Sam Ball & Ed Hill [Ep. 1]

2️⃣ Data Action Accelerator Programme Manager - Seonaid Lafferty [Ep. 2]

3️⃣ Data & software engineering – Albert Brennan [Ep. 3]

4️⃣ Directing research programmes – Andrea Astbury [Ep. 4]

Ed Hill @edmhill.bsky.social · 11d

2/ Health Data Decoded podcast

🗣️ Hear our interdisciplinary research team talking about their work to tackle global health challenges with civic data & technology while driving positive change for the people of the Liverpool City Region.

7️⃣ episodes are now live!

Ed Hill @edmhill.bsky.social · 11d

1/ Today is International Podcasts Day!

🎙️ Earlier this year, Sam Ball and myself launched the @livunichil.bsky.social Health Data Decoded podcast. #PublicHealth #DataScience #SciComm

📹 YouTube: www.youtube.com/@HealthDataD...

🎧 Spotify: open.spotify.com/show/1kbSyvI...

Ed Hill @edmhill.bsky.social · 13d

📰 DEFRA avian influenza update on 28 Sep 2025 #IDEpi #OneHealth 🧪

🐔 HPAI H5N1 confirmed in commercial poultry at a premises near Wetheral, Cumbria.

📊 79 confirmed HPAI H5N1 cases in poultry & other captive birds in UK from 04 Nov 2024.
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England: 70
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 Scotland: 3
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 Wales: 2
🇬🇧 Northern Ireland: 4

Bird flu: near Wetheral, Cumberland, Cumbria (AIV 2025/62)

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 was confirmed in commercial poultry at a premises near Wetheral, Cumberland, Cumbria on 28 September 2025.

Ed Hill @edmhill.bsky.social · 16d

3/ Health Data Decoded

🎙️ Civic Health Innovation Labs (@livunichil.bsky.social) podcast discussing how we can use civic data to improve public health.

🎧 Spotify: open.spotify.com/show/1kbSyvI...

📹 YouTube: www.youtube.com/@HealthDataD...

/end

Health Data Decoded

Welcome to Health Data Decoded! A podcast series from the Civic Health Innovation Labs (CHIL), based at the University of Liverpool. CHIL is an interdisciplinary research centre tackling global hea...

www.youtube.com

Ed Hill @edmhill.bsky.social · 16d

2/ Civic Health Innovation Lab’s Investment Zone programme (CHI-Zone)

🗣️ Annemarie shares experiences leading implementation of CHI-Zone with Integrated Care Board & Liverpool City Region’s Combined Authority

🔗 Annemarie’s webpage: www.liverpool.ac.uk/people/annem...

🔗 CHI-Zone: www.chi-zone.co.uk

CHI-Zone | Empowering Industry to Develop Health and Care Solutions

Discover the Civic HealthTech Innovation Zone, a hub for health and care innovation in the Liverpool City Region. Find out more today.

www.chi-zone.co.uk