Adam Kucharski
@adamjkucharski.bsky.social
Epidemiologist/mathematician. Professor at London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine. Author of The Rules of Contagion and The Perfect Bet. Views own.
New book Proof: The Uncertain Science of Certainty available now: proof.kucharski.io
New book Proof: The Uncertain Science of Certainty available now: proof.kucharski.io
Making emails much easier to write and send with AI will make us all more productive, will it?
My inbox says otherwise...
My inbox says otherwise...
November 25, 2025 at 8:47 AM
Making emails much easier to write and send with AI will make us all more productive, will it?
My inbox says otherwise...
My inbox says otherwise...
Reposted by Adam Kucharski
I think this is probably right and also a complete disaster. Just an utter unwilligness to learn from what we all collectively went through just a few years ago…
The default pandemic strategy for many countries does now seem to be "Play it by ear then lockdown and wait for a vaccine"
November 24, 2025 at 10:11 PM
I think this is probably right and also a complete disaster. Just an utter unwilligness to learn from what we all collectively went through just a few years ago…
Reposted by Adam Kucharski
I fear this exactly. Failing to adequately prepare increases the likelihood of lockdowns. No one should want this.
The default pandemic strategy for many countries does now seem to be "Play it by ear then lockdown and wait for a vaccine"
November 24, 2025 at 8:31 PM
I fear this exactly. Failing to adequately prepare increases the likelihood of lockdowns. No one should want this.
The default pandemic strategy for many countries does now seem to be "Play it by ear then lockdown and wait for a vaccine"
November 24, 2025 at 8:17 PM
The default pandemic strategy for many countries does now seem to be "Play it by ear then lockdown and wait for a vaccine"
Reposted by Adam Kucharski
it just didn't have the legs 😢
Turns out interest in Metaverse had about a ~9 month half life.
November 24, 2025 at 9:55 AM
it just didn't have the legs 😢
Reposted by Adam Kucharski
There's absolutely no way anyone could've predicted this.
Turns out interest in Metaverse had about a ~9 month half life.
November 24, 2025 at 9:38 AM
There's absolutely no way anyone could've predicted this.
New paper on climate variation and the importance of considering serotype competition in dengue dynamics, with @emiliefinch.bsky.social @drrachellowe.bsky.social and others www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Climate variation and serotype competition drive dengue outbreak dynamics in Singapore - Nature Communications
Dengue early warning systems integrating climate information are an important tool for epidemic preparedness and response. Here, the authors develop a prediction model that incorporates clim...
www.nature.com
November 24, 2025 at 9:51 AM
New paper on climate variation and the importance of considering serotype competition in dengue dynamics, with @emiliefinch.bsky.social @drrachellowe.bsky.social and others www.nature.com/articles/s41...
I'm afraid to report that 'verse' has been decline since the 1800s
November 24, 2025 at 9:20 AM
I'm afraid to report that 'verse' has been decline since the 1800s
Turns out interest in Metaverse had about a ~9 month half life.
November 23, 2025 at 8:51 PM
Turns out interest in Metaverse had about a ~9 month half life.
Reposted by Adam Kucharski
Another exercise in critical evaluation of statistics from Adam. Short version: when a study looks at a lot of related outcomes and finds one pointing in the opposite direction to all the others, there's a good chance it's a statistical phantom.
Notice anything unusual about the below estimates, which show how much exposure to a certain chemical is associated with neurodevelopmental conditions?
Take a moment to write down what you think is happening, then read the full story: kucharski.substack.com/p/is-this-pa...
Take a moment to write down what you think is happening, then read the full story: kucharski.substack.com/p/is-this-pa...
November 23, 2025 at 4:57 PM
Another exercise in critical evaluation of statistics from Adam. Short version: when a study looks at a lot of related outcomes and finds one pointing in the opposite direction to all the others, there's a good chance it's a statistical phantom.
How popular AI apps produce a non-scientist’s idea of quality science kucharski.substack.com/p/the-shallo...
November 23, 2025 at 4:38 PM
How popular AI apps produce a non-scientist’s idea of quality science kucharski.substack.com/p/the-shallo...
Can you guess which of these quotes are about COVID, and which about the 1918 influenza pandemic?
Answers here: kucharski.substack.com/p/how-will-h...
Answers here: kucharski.substack.com/p/how-will-h...
November 23, 2025 at 1:45 PM
Can you guess which of these quotes are about COVID, and which about the 1918 influenza pandemic?
Answers here: kucharski.substack.com/p/how-will-h...
Answers here: kucharski.substack.com/p/how-will-h...
Notice anything unusual about the below estimates, which show how much exposure to a certain chemical is associated with neurodevelopmental conditions?
Take a moment to write down what you think is happening, then read the full story: kucharski.substack.com/p/is-this-pa...
Take a moment to write down what you think is happening, then read the full story: kucharski.substack.com/p/is-this-pa...
November 23, 2025 at 11:28 AM
Notice anything unusual about the below estimates, which show how much exposure to a certain chemical is associated with neurodevelopmental conditions?
Take a moment to write down what you think is happening, then read the full story: kucharski.substack.com/p/is-this-pa...
Take a moment to write down what you think is happening, then read the full story: kucharski.substack.com/p/is-this-pa...
Reposted by Adam Kucharski
I am grateful for @adamjkucharski.bsky.social. He takes such care to deconstruct a claim made by the director of National Institutes of Health on excess mortality during the pandemic. We need sober analyses more than ever right now, even amidst the madness.
kucharski.substack.com/p/excess-mor...
kucharski.substack.com/p/excess-mor...
Excess mortality or excessive assumptions?
How to make a popular metric tell any story you like
kucharski.substack.com
November 22, 2025 at 10:29 PM
I am grateful for @adamjkucharski.bsky.social. He takes such care to deconstruct a claim made by the director of National Institutes of Health on excess mortality during the pandemic. We need sober analyses more than ever right now, even amidst the madness.
kucharski.substack.com/p/excess-mor...
kucharski.substack.com/p/excess-mor...
If you can make my talk on 'how certain is certain enough?' at @lshtm.bsky.social on Monday, see you there! www.lshtm.ac.uk/newsevents/e...
If you can't make it (or want a taster) here are some of the things it will cover: 📡 🍺 🤖 ✈️ 🦠 🌔 ⌨️ 🚀 ❤️ 👥 ⚖️ 🎲
If you can't make it (or want a taster) here are some of the things it will cover: 📡 🍺 🤖 ✈️ 🦠 🌔 ⌨️ 🚀 ❤️ 👥 ⚖️ 🎲
November 22, 2025 at 6:28 PM
If you can make my talk on 'how certain is certain enough?' at @lshtm.bsky.social on Monday, see you there! www.lshtm.ac.uk/newsevents/e...
If you can't make it (or want a taster) here are some of the things it will cover: 📡 🍺 🤖 ✈️ 🦠 🌔 ⌨️ 🚀 ❤️ 👥 ⚖️ 🎲
If you can't make it (or want a taster) here are some of the things it will cover: 📡 🍺 🤖 ✈️ 🦠 🌔 ⌨️ 🚀 ❤️ 👥 ⚖️ 🎲
Anyone else spend a lot of this morning looking up v = 311 + 0.6*T ?
November 22, 2025 at 1:41 PM
Anyone else spend a lot of this morning looking up v = 311 + 0.6*T ?
Reposted by Adam Kucharski
In another year dedicated to fiction, it's interesting that I began with John Kay and Mervyn A. King's Radical Uncertainty and am almost finishing the year with @adamjkucharski.bsky.social 's Proof, two non-fiction books on some fictional assurances we collect through life and decision making.
November 22, 2025 at 12:55 PM
In another year dedicated to fiction, it's interesting that I began with John Kay and Mervyn A. King's Radical Uncertainty and am almost finishing the year with @adamjkucharski.bsky.social 's Proof, two non-fiction books on some fictional assurances we collect through life and decision making.
Nice to see Proof get a mention in the @stcatharines.bsky.social alumni magazine. Although looks like I’ve been outdone by Richard ‘5 books and a Pixar show’ Ayoade.
November 22, 2025 at 1:04 PM
Nice to see Proof get a mention in the @stcatharines.bsky.social alumni magazine. Although looks like I’ve been outdone by Richard ‘5 books and a Pixar show’ Ayoade.
The COVID inquiry conclusion that lockdown could have been avoided – and subsequent headlines – seems to have been based on a single opinion…
November 22, 2025 at 9:47 AM
The COVID inquiry conclusion that lockdown could have been avoided – and subsequent headlines – seems to have been based on a single opinion…
Reposted by Adam Kucharski
"We need to work out which variants are on the horizon that we need to be concerned about & the ability to have #vaccines"
For Inside Science @adamjkucharski.bsky.social discusses how #COVID variants have evolved since the pandemic & how we can best be prepared.
📻 www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/...
For Inside Science @adamjkucharski.bsky.social discusses how #COVID variants have evolved since the pandemic & how we can best be prepared.
📻 www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/...
BBC Inside Science - What’s in the wording of the COP 30 negotiations? - BBC Sounds
As COP 30 draws to close in Brazil, we speak to a former negotiator.
www.bbc.co.uk
November 21, 2025 at 2:02 PM
"We need to work out which variants are on the horizon that we need to be concerned about & the ability to have #vaccines"
For Inside Science @adamjkucharski.bsky.social discusses how #COVID variants have evolved since the pandemic & how we can best be prepared.
📻 www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/...
For Inside Science @adamjkucharski.bsky.social discusses how #COVID variants have evolved since the pandemic & how we can best be prepared.
📻 www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/...
Reposted by Adam Kucharski
“Engaging and uncondescending.”
PROOF, by epidemiologist and mathematician @adamjkucharski.bsky.social, is a @financialtimes.com Best Book of 2025!
Learn more: bit.ly/4r9KYZn
PROOF, by epidemiologist and mathematician @adamjkucharski.bsky.social, is a @financialtimes.com Best Book of 2025!
Learn more: bit.ly/4r9KYZn
Best books of 2025: Sport, Health and Wellness
Simon Kuper and Anjana Ahuja select their must-read titles
bit.ly
November 20, 2025 at 4:14 PM
“Engaging and uncondescending.”
PROOF, by epidemiologist and mathematician @adamjkucharski.bsky.social, is a @financialtimes.com Best Book of 2025!
Learn more: bit.ly/4r9KYZn
PROOF, by epidemiologist and mathematician @adamjkucharski.bsky.social, is a @financialtimes.com Best Book of 2025!
Learn more: bit.ly/4r9KYZn
Reposted by Adam Kucharski
“Enjoy the result you have found by exploratory subgroup analysis, for you will not find it again.” Sayings of Confuseus
November 20, 2025 at 10:03 AM
“Enjoy the result you have found by exploratory subgroup analysis, for you will not find it again.” Sayings of Confuseus
How much statistical sleight of hand can you spot in this paragraph on the new CDC website, which is now littered with muddled and flawed claims about vaccines and autism? www.cdc.gov/vaccine-safe... 🧵
November 20, 2025 at 9:58 AM
How much statistical sleight of hand can you spot in this paragraph on the new CDC website, which is now littered with muddled and flawed claims about vaccines and autism? www.cdc.gov/vaccine-safe... 🧵
'Is COVID seasonal?' a journalist asks.
Well...
Well...
November 19, 2025 at 7:35 PM
'Is COVID seasonal?' a journalist asks.
Well...
Well...
Reposted by Adam Kucharski
1/ 📰 Fantastic to see the official website for the Global Society for Infectious Disease Dynamics (GSIDD) is now live! #GSIDD #IDsky #EpiSky 🧪
🗺️ GSIDD serves the global community of researchers, practitioners and educators in infectious disease dynamics.
🔗: www.gsidd.org
🗺️ GSIDD serves the global community of researchers, practitioners and educators in infectious disease dynamics.
🔗: www.gsidd.org
Global Society for Infectious Disease Dynamics (GSIDD) | infectious disease dynamics
GSIDD serves the global community of researchers, practitioners, and educators in infectious disease dynamics.
gsidd.org
November 19, 2025 at 6:24 PM
1/ 📰 Fantastic to see the official website for the Global Society for Infectious Disease Dynamics (GSIDD) is now live! #GSIDD #IDsky #EpiSky 🧪
🗺️ GSIDD serves the global community of researchers, practitioners and educators in infectious disease dynamics.
🔗: www.gsidd.org
🗺️ GSIDD serves the global community of researchers, practitioners and educators in infectious disease dynamics.
🔗: www.gsidd.org