Stephen Senn
@stephensenn.bsky.social
Swiss & British statistician.
“You will find that multivariate analysis is an excellent way of finding answers when you don’t know the questions.” Sayings of Confuseus
(Now corrected Previous version was a “no know” due to His Grand Sagacity having a senior moment .)
(Now corrected Previous version was a “no know” due to His Grand Sagacity having a senior moment .)
November 25, 2025 at 9:58 AM
“You will find that multivariate analysis is an excellent way of finding answers when you don’t know the questions.” Sayings of Confuseus
(Now corrected Previous version was a “no know” due to His Grand Sagacity having a senior moment .)
(Now corrected Previous version was a “no know” due to His Grand Sagacity having a senior moment .)
"we probably do not need to worry about the fact that the actual effect of one treatment rather than the other is not the same for all patients. Quite limited knowledge about an average improvement is the best that we can do" John Tukey, Controlled Clinical Trials, 1993 p282
November 24, 2025 at 12:01 PM
"we probably do not need to worry about the fact that the actual effect of one treatment rather than the other is not the same for all patients. Quite limited knowledge about an average improvement is the best that we can do" John Tukey, Controlled Clinical Trials, 1993 p282
"I recall 4 or 5 statisticians, including David Cox, Ram Gnanadesikan and myself, driving from London to Sheffield. The question arose of how often each of us used multivariate techniques. The answers I recall were in the range from 1 in 50 to 1 in 200." John Tukey, ISR, 1991, p130
November 24, 2025 at 11:47 AM
"I recall 4 or 5 statisticians, including David Cox, Ram Gnanadesikan and myself, driving from London to Sheffield. The question arose of how often each of us used multivariate techniques. The answers I recall were in the range from 1 in 50 to 1 in 200." John Tukey, ISR, 1991, p130
The 16:26 LNER from Newcastle to Peterborough
1) The departures board states leaving from platform 3
2) An audio announcement states leaving from platform 2
3) Bur another audio says the next train from platform 2 will be to Dundee.
4) Where the platform notice says Peterborough .
Bravo #LNER
1) The departures board states leaving from platform 3
2) An audio announcement states leaving from platform 2
3) Bur another audio says the next train from platform 2 will be to Dundee.
4) Where the platform notice says Peterborough .
Bravo #LNER
November 23, 2025 at 4:35 PM
The 16:26 LNER from Newcastle to Peterborough
1) The departures board states leaving from platform 3
2) An audio announcement states leaving from platform 2
3) Bur another audio says the next train from platform 2 will be to Dundee.
4) Where the platform notice says Peterborough .
Bravo #LNER
1) The departures board states leaving from platform 3
2) An audio announcement states leaving from platform 2
3) Bur another audio says the next train from platform 2 will be to Dundee.
4) Where the platform notice says Peterborough .
Bravo #LNER
Reposted by Stephen Senn
Do Counterfactuals Break Bayesianism?
And What Are Causal Bounds Useful For?
In this week's issue of Causal Python Weekly:
1/
#CausalSky #MLSky #EconSky #StatSky #EpiSky
And What Are Causal Bounds Useful For?
In this week's issue of Causal Python Weekly:
1/
#CausalSky #MLSky #EconSky #StatSky #EpiSky
November 23, 2025 at 1:48 PM
Do Counterfactuals Break Bayesianism?
And What Are Causal Bounds Useful For?
In this week's issue of Causal Python Weekly:
1/
#CausalSky #MLSky #EconSky #StatSky #EpiSky
And What Are Causal Bounds Useful For?
In this week's issue of Causal Python Weekly:
1/
#CausalSky #MLSky #EconSky #StatSky #EpiSky
“The CDC used to be legendary but is now interested in the mythical.” Sayings of Confuseus
November 22, 2025 at 10:48 AM
“The CDC used to be legendary but is now interested in the mythical.” Sayings of Confuseus
“In Switzerland you can have muesli for tea and in Britain you can have a measly imitation for breakfast but in America you will soon be able to have measles anytime at all.” Sayings of Confuseus
November 22, 2025 at 9:25 AM
“In Switzerland you can have muesli for tea and in Britain you can have a measly imitation for breakfast but in America you will soon be able to have measles anytime at all.” Sayings of Confuseus
99% of all subgroup analyses give the others a bad name.
November 20, 2025 at 2:41 PM
99% of all subgroup analyses give the others a bad name.
A lovely day for a walk in the #Pentlands I started in Carlops, diverted into Windy Gowl, ascended Mount Maw (wind and snowdrifts made this tough) and am now enjoying a pint in The Gordon Arms in West Linton #hiking #Scotland
November 20, 2025 at 2:37 PM
A lovely day for a walk in the #Pentlands I started in Carlops, diverted into Windy Gowl, ascended Mount Maw (wind and snowdrifts made this tough) and am now enjoying a pint in The Gordon Arms in West Linton #hiking #Scotland
“Many nowadays are obsessed with counterfactuals but old school statisticians count the factuals.” Sayings of Confuseus
November 18, 2025 at 6:59 PM
“Many nowadays are obsessed with counterfactuals but old school statisticians count the factuals.” Sayings of Confuseus
Today’s walk was to Balerno along the Water of Leith. The herons were in evidence. #hiking #Scotland #Edinburgh
November 15, 2025 at 2:58 PM
Today’s walk was to Balerno along the Water of Leith. The herons were in evidence. #hiking #Scotland #Edinburgh
A similar walk today to last Saturday’s but this time accompanied by my wife #hiking #Pentlands #Scotland
November 14, 2025 at 1:54 PM
A similar walk today to last Saturday’s but this time accompanied by my wife #hiking #Pentlands #Scotland
You may think that 10,000 social scientists can’t be wrong but have you considered split-plot analyses?
November 11, 2025 at 5:56 PM
You may think that 10,000 social scientists can’t be wrong but have you considered split-plot analyses?
“You will find that many repeated measures analyses deserve to be placed in the spit-pot.” Sayings of Confuseus
November 11, 2025 at 5:49 PM
“You will find that many repeated measures analyses deserve to be placed in the spit-pot.” Sayings of Confuseus
You categorised patients as responders or non responders by dichotomising a change from baseline?
You triple criminal!
You triple criminal!
November 8, 2025 at 7:33 PM
You categorised patients as responders or non responders by dichotomising a change from baseline?
You triple criminal!
You triple criminal!
Today’s walk was from Silverburn to Flotterstone via the Silverburn Quarry, The Kirk Rd, Carnethy, Turnhouse & “The Biscuit Tin” to a pint of Pentland IPA at the Flotterstone Inn
November 8, 2025 at 1:46 PM
Today’s walk was from Silverburn to Flotterstone via the Silverburn Quarry, The Kirk Rd, Carnethy, Turnhouse & “The Biscuit Tin” to a pint of Pentland IPA at the Flotterstone Inn
Just finished reading this novel by my brother-in-law and am impressed. Software development and maintenance as a relentless treadmill to which the programmers and coders are chained.
A nice touch is that imagines a Britain in which Thanet is still an island.
A nice touch is that imagines a Britain in which Thanet is still an island.
Human Software is now available via Waterstones, Barnes and Noble, Amazon and many others including Kobo, Leanpub.
For all the ways to buy in paperback and e-book:
humansoftwarebook.com/how-to-purch...
#booksky #writingcommunity #selfpublished
For all the ways to buy in paperback and e-book:
humansoftwarebook.com/how-to-purch...
#booksky #writingcommunity #selfpublished
November 3, 2025 at 9:18 PM
Just finished reading this novel by my brother-in-law and am impressed. Software development and maintenance as a relentless treadmill to which the programmers and coders are chained.
A nice touch is that imagines a Britain in which Thanet is still an island.
A nice touch is that imagines a Britain in which Thanet is still an island.
Today we had a family lunch at The Boat in Catherine-de-Barnes followed by a walk along the canal. #Warwickshire
November 2, 2025 at 8:28 PM
Today we had a family lunch at The Boat in Catherine-de-Barnes followed by a walk along the canal. #Warwickshire
Stop interpreting clinical trials as if they were surveys.
www.linkedin.com/pulse/illegi...
www.linkedin.com/pulse/illegi...
Illegible Eligible
Several times recently, in published papers and in papers I have been asked to review, I have come across the quite incorrect claim that the eligibility criteria of a clinical trial define the target ...
www.linkedin.com
November 2, 2025 at 10:50 AM
Stop interpreting clinical trials as if they were surveys.
www.linkedin.com/pulse/illegi...
www.linkedin.com/pulse/illegi...
The target population for the research question is the population of people who would satisfy the eligibility criteria. “
Wrong x 2
1) The eligibility criteria define who doesn’t come into the trial not who does.
2) We generalise from quite different trials to populations eg bioequivalence trials.
Wrong x 2
1) The eligibility criteria define who doesn’t come into the trial not who does.
2) We generalise from quite different trials to populations eg bioequivalence trials.
November 1, 2025 at 7:03 PM
The target population for the research question is the population of people who would satisfy the eligibility criteria. “
Wrong x 2
1) The eligibility criteria define who doesn’t come into the trial not who does.
2) We generalise from quite different trials to populations eg bioequivalence trials.
Wrong x 2
1) The eligibility criteria define who doesn’t come into the trial not who does.
2) We generalise from quite different trials to populations eg bioequivalence trials.
Reposted by Stephen Senn
I'm on bookbub! www.bookbub.com/books/human-...
Human Software: A Life in I.T. - A Novel by Richard W. Bown - BookBub
AI, data centres, job losses, globalization. What happens when AI tries to ruin your life? Even if you don t work in tech, this story pulls you in with its vivid world-building and well-rounded charac...
www.bookbub.com
October 31, 2025 at 1:20 PM
I'm on bookbub! www.bookbub.com/books/human-...
Reposted by Stephen Senn
'Tea and Grit: A Bicycle Journey along the Silk Road' is coming soon! #Syria #Türkiye #Iran #CentralAsia #Uzbekistan #Tajikistan #SilkRoad #CycleTouring #TravelWriting #Poetry
Please 🚴 this way to find out more and sign-up to alerts: www.helenwatsonwriting.com/home
Please 🚴 this way to find out more and sign-up to alerts: www.helenwatsonwriting.com/home
October 27, 2025 at 7:49 PM
'Tea and Grit: A Bicycle Journey along the Silk Road' is coming soon! #Syria #Türkiye #Iran #CentralAsia #Uzbekistan #Tajikistan #SilkRoad #CycleTouring #TravelWriting #Poetry
Please 🚴 this way to find out more and sign-up to alerts: www.helenwatsonwriting.com/home
Please 🚴 this way to find out more and sign-up to alerts: www.helenwatsonwriting.com/home
Today we had a circular walk from Torphin with our son, daughter-in-law and our two granddaughters. A cold day out but with beautiful sunshine.
#hiking #Pentlands
#hiking #Pentlands
October 25, 2025 at 2:06 PM
Today we had a circular walk from Torphin with our son, daughter-in-law and our two granddaughters. A cold day out but with beautiful sunshine.
#hiking #Pentlands
#hiking #Pentlands
Reposted by Stephen Senn
New blogpost on my concerns about Wellcome LEAP new $50m program on autism/microbiome links. deevybee.blogspot.com/2025/10/a-le...
#autism #microbiome #biomarkers #diagnostic
#autism #microbiome #biomarkers #diagnostic
A LEAP into the future, or off a cliff: Wellcome LEAP's new $50M program
A few days ago, I saw this post on LinkedIn: How does the gut microbiome shape early brain development? That’s what FORM, a new $50 million...
deevybee.blogspot.com
October 20, 2025 at 1:53 PM
New blogpost on my concerns about Wellcome LEAP new $50m program on autism/microbiome links. deevybee.blogspot.com/2025/10/a-le...
#autism #microbiome #biomarkers #diagnostic
#autism #microbiome #biomarkers #diagnostic
A misty day in the Pentlands. I did a circular from W Linton via Upper Cairn, N Muir Hill, Nether Cairn, Mendick Hill and the bridge on the West Water. #hiking #Pentlands #Scotland
October 16, 2025 at 1:54 PM
A misty day in the Pentlands. I did a circular from W Linton via Upper Cairn, N Muir Hill, Nether Cairn, Mendick Hill and the bridge on the West Water. #hiking #Pentlands #Scotland