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Ewan Hoyle

@ewanhoyle.bsky.social

330 followers 800 following 660 posts

Lead strategist at Sprint for PR, the progressive campaign for the electoral reform that protects us all from illegitimate right-wing rule. Progressive co-operation can deliver the reform we need in this parliament.

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Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 1d

I joined the Green Party last month.
I did that after asking someone to have a look at some data that I suspected would show them having overtaken the Labour Party.
I think the 100/1 odds on them being the largest party after the next election are generous. ewanhoyle.substack.com/p/green-part...

Green Party supporters are too clever by half.

Tactical considerations at the ballot box and in polling have built up a Green Trojan Horse in UK politics.

ewanhoyle.substack.com

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Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 1h

There's an accumulation of polling evidence suggesting the Greens are already a more popular party than Labour.

If they can turn that popularity into voting intention, then there could be a tipping point where the polls move very quickly against Labour.

open.substack.com/pub/ewanhoyl...

Green Party supporters are too clever by half.

Tactical considerations at the ballot box and in polling have built up a Green Trojan Horse in UK politics.

open.substack.com

1 26

Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 3h

I think the strategies I'm proposing should make it very clear that both Lib Dems and Greens would be in the mix to form a government.

It's definitely another potential reason why Green votes were very few and far between in 2024, though.

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Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 8h

Yeah, so the ranked preference data just gives so much more depth to assist understanding of political thought and behaviour.

Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 8h

recorded as Conservative voters.

Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 8h

It's mad that voting intention is how we bundle people for all other analysis when around 30% of Labour voters prefer other parties.

You'll have a lot of supporters of progressive parties voting Conservative tactically against Reform UK in FPTP elections in the future, but they'll just be...

Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 9h

I think what is needed is a very specific polling question eg. "Some electoral systems allow you to rank parties in order of which parties you would want to represent you. How would you rank the main UK parties in a general election under such a system?"

Others will word it better.

Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 10h

I genuinely think even the pollsters don't understand what's going on.

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Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 19h

I've thoughts on how that can change

open.substack.com/pub/ewanhoyl...

Green Party supporters are too clever by half.

Tactical considerations at the ballot box and in polling have built up a Green Trojan Horse in UK politics.

open.substack.com

Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 19h

Would be interested in your thoughts on this 👇

open.substack.com/pub/ewanhoyl...

Green Party supporters are too clever by half.

Tactical considerations at the ballot box and in polling have built up a Green Trojan Horse in UK politics.

open.substack.com

1 1

Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 19h

48% would rank them dead last

d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/Gr...

Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 19h

They are the most unpopular party

Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 20h

The Greens have overtaken Labour.

open.substack.com/pub/ewanhoyl...

Green Party supporters are too clever by half.

Tactical considerations at the ballot box and in polling have built up a Green Trojan Horse in UK politics.

open.substack.com

Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 21h

Party social media posts that actually make me laugh 😃

The Green Party of England & Wales @greenparty.org.uk · 2d

Making hope normal again! 💚

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Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 22h

Mad that Sultana saw the issue Greens were trusted least on (defence), and decided she should be more radically deviant from public opinion. 🤯

Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 22h

What was the 2nd reason the Greens weren't doing better @lewisgoodall.com ?

Was it tactical voting?

open.substack.com/pub/ewanhoyl...

Green Party supporters are too clever by half.

Tactical considerations at the ballot box and in polling have built up a Green Trojan Horse in UK politics.

open.substack.com

Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 1d

They are the only party with a serious position on this issue.

Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 1d

Wrong!! Educate yourself.
There's a lot of people who think it's ok to leave lucrative drug markets in the hands of violent criminal gangs that recruit children to carry out their work. That is the madness here.

Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 1d

Some very pessimistic statements about the prospects for the Greens.

There's some polling that suggests they already lead Labour in ranked preferences and favourability. If they can transform that into voting intention, Labour are in deep trouble. open.substack.com/pub/ewanhoyl...

Green Party supporters are too clever by half.

Tactical considerations at the ballot box and in polling have built up a Green Trojan Horse in UK politics.

open.substack.com

Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 1d

Ultimately, there needs to be a new party of the centre-right for people who are talented and who respect the British people and reality. Such a party only becomes of definite benefit to British politics under a ranked electoral system like the Single Transferable Vote.

Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 1d

Green Party supporters are too clever by half.

Tactical considerations at the ballot box and in polling have built up a Green Trojan Horse in UK politics.

ewanhoyle.substack.com

1 6

Reposted by Ewan Hoyle

TheBossRoss @thebossross.bsky.social · 2d

This conversation.

Thank you, #BBCWest / #BBCBristol - it's good to see you can still do it.

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Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 2d

19% in August 2023, and 16% in May 2024. This is broadly comparable to the first ranking numbers for YouGov's "how would you rank?" in favourability.

Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 2d

"would you consider voting for?" is still distorted by tactical considerations under FPTP, though.
"Suppose all the of following political parties were equally likely to win your seat at a general election. Which party would you most like to win?" is the Electoral Calculus question that gave Grn...

Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 2d

Total over 5?:
Green 30%
Reform 26%
Lib Dem 25%
Con 23%
Lab 23%

Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 2d

Would this have the Green Party leading on a "total like" score (people scoring them over 5)?