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James Franklin

@franklinjamesl.bsky.social

2.5K followers 290 following 510 posts

Former Chief, Hurricane Specialist Unit, National Hurricane Center, NOAA/NWS (retired). Mostly weather posts, with occasional forays into grammar and usage, word play, and south Florida sports.

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James Franklin @franklinjamesl.bsky.social · 1d

Also have to say I prefer the Yes version of "America" over Simon and Garfunkel's, although both are great.

James Franklin @franklinjamesl.bsky.social · 1d

Guess it says something about my musical tastes that I know the Yes version but never knew it was a Beatles song.

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James Franklin @franklinjamesl.bsky.social · 1d

I fear that as well, since the administration acts as though merely being in the same agency where climate work occurs is a good enough reason for a cut.

James Franklin @franklinjamesl.bsky.social · 1d

One factor that should keep dynamical guidance relevant is that forecasters can (often) tease out *why* a dynamical model is doing what it's doing. A limitation of an AI model for a forecaster is that it's basically a black box, which makes its output hard to weigh against other things.

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James Franklin @franklinjamesl.bsky.social · 1d

Kim, while 2025 is the first truly "live" test in an operational framework, these results are consistent with their 2023-24 retrospective validations. So I'm quite optimistic these results will prove to be representative.

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James Franklin @franklinjamesl.bsky.social · 2d

The homogeneous sample isn't huge, but this is what is in the public decks for EAII vs GDMI. Also EAII is at a disadvantage since it's a 12-h interpolation half the time while GDMI is (almost) always a 6-h interpolation.

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James Franklin @franklinjamesl.bsky.social · 2d

Only caveat is I don’t have EMXI (not in the public decks), but hard to believe EMXI could be doing *that* well.

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James Franklin @franklinjamesl.bsky.social · 2d

With about 80% of the precincts reporting I've seen enough. GDMI - Google DeepMind is going to win the seat for best track model in 2025. The race for best intensity model is still too close to call, but GDMI is right there with the consensus and OFCL. Quite a remarkable campaign.

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James Franklin @franklinjamesl.bsky.social · 2d

I'm okay with the Penn State thing - haven't been a fan since "intercepted Giftopoulos". All I ask is for a cut of that buyout check.

James Franklin @franklinjamesl.bsky.social · 3d

Can't decide if having Neil Jacobs in place now makes NOAA RIFs any less likely. Thoughts?

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James Franklin @franklinjamesl.bsky.social · 3d

A shameless plug. ;-)

James Franklin @franklinjamesl.bsky.social · 3d

From the NHC TCR: "The rain in Spain was mainly less than 2 inches, although 3.30 inches fell in the plain at Cordoba."

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James Franklin @franklinjamesl.bsky.social · 4d

I can't replace what the administration will withhold, but I'm proud of my alma mater and will increase my annual donation as best I can.
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/10/u...

M.I.T. Rejects a White House Offer for Special Funding Treatment

www.nytimes.com

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James Franklin @franklinjamesl.bsky.social · 8d

I don't suppose we original season ticket holders are getting another one of these...

James Franklin @franklinjamesl.bsky.social · 9d

Uh oh, sounds like we lost. I'd know that except...I stopped watching them last year. Got my Panthers, got my Canes.

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James Franklin @franklinjamesl.bsky.social · 11d

While there's a break in the action I thought I'd update the guidance verification for the season (alas, with EMXI not included). Google DeepMind maintaining its edge with track and competitive with the better models for intensity. HMON also having a fine year.

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James Franklin @franklinjamesl.bsky.social · 11d

Complex indeed, and of course it’s not only about information but also the ability to leave. But at least we should be making the information as accurate and appropriate as we can. Merging hazards undermines that.

James Franklin @franklinjamesl.bsky.social · 11d

Your comments about people needing to know when *not* to evacuate are on point, and this is one reason why I’m so opposed to new hurricane scales that include multiple hazards. Once you start raising the category based on ANY hazard, you make it more likely the wrong people will leave.

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James Franklin @franklinjamesl.bsky.social · 14d

Neither can live while the other survives.

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James Franklin @franklinjamesl.bsky.social · 14d

Imbermeldo.

James Franklin @franklinjamesl.bsky.social · 14d

Also Department of Commerce.

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James Franklin @franklinjamesl.bsky.social · 15d

Neat list, Michael. Does this include depression stages of decaying storms?

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James Franklin @franklinjamesl.bsky.social · 16d

That’s actually comforting to see. Thank you. Both plots show the two main options, and both show a preference for the landfall scenario. But with so few members, the collection of deterministic runs doesn’t display the uncertainty as nicely.

James Franklin @franklinjamesl.bsky.social · 16d

It’s interesting that the ensemble plot shows the two main options while that range of possibilities isn’t apparent in the deterministic solutions. Which is your point, of course, but better shown if the two were from the same initial time.

James Franklin @franklinjamesl.bsky.social · 16d

Can you show the deterministic tracks and ensemble tracks from the same time? One of the above is from 12Z and the other is from 06Z. That’d be a cleaner comparison.