James Franklin
@franklinjamesl.bsky.social
Former Chief, Hurricane Specialist Unit, National Hurricane Center, NOAA/NWS (retired). Mostly weather posts, with occasional forays into grammar and usage, word play, and south Florida sports.
Was happy to chat with NPR’s Greg Allen for this story. Not mentioned here but importantly, Google’s DeepMind AI model performed well not only this year, but similarly well in retrospective tests from previous seasons. It’s a really exciting step forward.
Meteorologists are surprised that the weather model that did the best job forecasting hurricanes this year was a new one, introduced by Google. AI may be the beginning of a new era of forecasting. n.pr/49MFa1M
As the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season ends, the future of forecasting is AI
Meteorologists are surprised that the weather model that did the best job forecasting hurricanes this year was a new one, introduced by Google. AI may be the beginning of a new era of forecasting.
n.pr
November 30, 2025 at 3:52 AM
Was happy to chat with NPR’s Greg Allen for this story. Not mentioned here but importantly, Google’s DeepMind AI model performed well not only this year, but similarly well in retrospective tests from previous seasons. It’s a really exciting step forward.
Because one can’t have too many jerseys, I’ve added another…
November 26, 2025 at 11:54 PM
Because one can’t have too many jerseys, I’ve added another…
Weighing the deep mysteries of life tonight: two spaces or one after a sentence, periods inside or outside of quotation marks, and do we go to the Panthers’ game or the Canes’ game tomorrow? And do I really need those last two apostrophes?
November 15, 2025 at 5:27 AM
Weighing the deep mysteries of life tonight: two spaces or one after a sentence, periods inside or outside of quotation marks, and do we go to the Panthers’ game or the Canes’ game tomorrow? And do I really need those last two apostrophes?
Same old story with the Canes. Now let’s see if the Panthers can salvage something of this so-far crappy day.
November 1, 2025 at 7:58 PM
Same old story with the Canes. Now let’s see if the Panthers can salvage something of this so-far crappy day.
They keep trying that play. I don’t think it works as well as they think it works. (Done in Princess Bride accent.)
November 1, 2025 at 7:25 PM
They keep trying that play. I don’t think it works as well as they think it works. (Done in Princess Bride accent.)
Here are updated verifications for 2025, AL/EP combined, EMXI not available. Impressed that NHC is beating everything, including consensus, for intensity, and everything but Google DeepMind (GDMI) for track. Rough year for GFS and the statistical intensity aids. Banner year for GDMI.
October 31, 2025 at 4:52 PM
Here are updated verifications for 2025, AL/EP combined, EMXI not available. Impressed that NHC is beating everything, including consensus, for intensity, and everything but Google DeepMind (GDMI) for track. Rough year for GFS and the statistical intensity aids. Banner year for GDMI.
Haven’t watched the Dolphins in weeks. Why did I decide to put myself through this again tonight?
October 31, 2025 at 12:54 AM
Haven’t watched the Dolphins in weeks. Why did I decide to put myself through this again tonight?
The sequence of NHC forecasts verifying at 28/18Z, roughly the time of landfall, is quite remarkable given the spread of the guidance and the track turns involved. Five days worth of OFCLs consistently focused on the western ⅔ of Jamaica, and with remarkable steadiness in timing. Nicely done NHC!
October 30, 2025 at 12:47 AM
The sequence of NHC forecasts verifying at 28/18Z, roughly the time of landfall, is quite remarkable given the spread of the guidance and the track turns involved. Five days worth of OFCLs consistently focused on the western ⅔ of Jamaica, and with remarkable steadiness in timing. Nicely done NHC!
Nice piece from Nature on the GDM AI model and, sadly, a missed opportunity for research on what made Melissa special due to the government shutdown.
We wrote about the Google DeepMind AI forecast model that has been doing quite well in predicting Atlantic #hurricane tracks & intensities this year. Thanks @bmcnoldy.bsky.social @franklinjamesl.bsky.social for insights, @NOAA for working without pay:
www.nature.com/articles/d41...
🧪🌀
www.nature.com/articles/d41...
🧪🌀
This ‘impressive’ AI model predicted Hurricane Melissa’s perilous growth
An artificial-intelligence tool is helping to crack the challenge of forecasting hurricane intensity.
www.nature.com
October 29, 2025 at 9:02 PM
Nice piece from Nature on the GDM AI model and, sadly, a missed opportunity for research on what made Melissa special due to the government shutdown.
Regarding the sonde from yesterday morning with the 219-kt spot wind, highest dropsonde wind ever seen in a TC, AOML/HRD shared the raw data and I took a look this morning. They’ll have the final call, but I see nothing wrong with the ob and I suspect it’s going to hold up.
October 29, 2025 at 5:54 PM
Regarding the sonde from yesterday morning with the 219-kt spot wind, highest dropsonde wind ever seen in a TC, AOML/HRD shared the raw data and I took a look this morning. They’ll have the final call, but I see nothing wrong with the ob and I suspect it’s going to hold up.
Not surprised by the we-need-a-cat-6 chatter. To me, adding a C6 is a marketing gimmick that would be counterproductive in helping people respond to approaching hurricane winds. But it does give me an excuse to link to something I previously posted about scales:
substack.com/home/post/p-...
substack.com/home/post/p-...
Please, No New Hurricane Scales
The Saffir-Simpson Scale has limitations. A new scale would have even more.
substack.com
October 29, 2025 at 4:09 PM
Not surprised by the we-need-a-cat-6 chatter. To me, adding a C6 is a marketing gimmick that would be counterproductive in helping people respond to approaching hurricane winds. But it does give me an excuse to link to something I previously posted about scales:
substack.com/home/post/p-...
substack.com/home/post/p-...
Idle thought having nothing to do with Melissa while listening to the in-arena host at the Panthers game…is “Coke Zero Sugar” Coke Zero with sugar, or a Coke with zero sugar? A hyphen in the brand name sure would help.
October 28, 2025 at 10:53 PM
Idle thought having nothing to do with Melissa while listening to the in-arena host at the Panthers game…is “Coke Zero Sugar” Coke Zero with sugar, or a Coke with zero sugar? A hyphen in the brand name sure would help.
Differences between satellite and recon tend to put a smile on this old flyer’s face. Although more often than not, the winds catch up to the satellite signature.
October 27, 2025 at 3:28 AM
Differences between satellite and recon tend to put a smile on this old flyer’s face. Although more often than not, the winds catch up to the satellite signature.
How can someone recruit so well and manage a game so poorly?
October 25, 2025 at 11:32 PM
How can someone recruit so well and manage a game so poorly?
Google DeepMind (GDMI) has done real well this year. When NHC today mentioned the GDM ensembles showing most reaching C5 intensity, I was curious how GDMI was doing for RI. Using the HFIP RI metric, turns out only so-so. HMON, HCCA, and OFCL are the standouts for RI so far. Sample still small.
October 25, 2025 at 6:40 PM
Google DeepMind (GDMI) has done real well this year. When NHC today mentioned the GDM ensembles showing most reaching C5 intensity, I was curious how GDMI was doing for RI. Using the HFIP RI metric, turns out only so-so. HMON, HCCA, and OFCL are the standouts for RI so far. Sample still small.
To paraphrase Gary Bettman, while it may be difficult to give Legacy ticket holders a Stanley Cup ring once, to do it twice in a row is almost impossible. Grateful that the Panthers really know how to take care of their most loyal fans. (But they still desperately need help at C4 and RD3.)
October 24, 2025 at 5:07 PM
To paraphrase Gary Bettman, while it may be difficult to give Legacy ticket holders a Stanley Cup ring once, to do it twice in a row is almost impossible. Grateful that the Panthers really know how to take care of their most loyal fans. (But they still desperately need help at C4 and RD3.)
With about 80% of the precincts reporting I've seen enough. GDMI - Google DeepMind is going to win the seat for best track model in 2025. The race for best intensity model is still too close to call, but GDMI is right there with the consensus and OFCL. Quite a remarkable campaign.
October 13, 2025 at 2:45 PM
With about 80% of the precincts reporting I've seen enough. GDMI - Google DeepMind is going to win the seat for best track model in 2025. The race for best intensity model is still too close to call, but GDMI is right there with the consensus and OFCL. Quite a remarkable campaign.
I'm okay with the Penn State thing - haven't been a fan since "intercepted Giftopoulos". All I ask is for a cut of that buyout check.
October 13, 2025 at 12:28 AM
I'm okay with the Penn State thing - haven't been a fan since "intercepted Giftopoulos". All I ask is for a cut of that buyout check.
I can't replace what the administration will withhold, but I'm proud of my alma mater and will increase my annual donation as best I can.
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/10/u...
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/10/u...
M.I.T. Rejects a White House Offer for Special Funding Treatment
www.nytimes.com
October 10, 2025 at 6:18 PM
I can't replace what the administration will withhold, but I'm proud of my alma mater and will increase my annual donation as best I can.
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/10/u...
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/10/u...
I don't suppose we original season ticket holders are getting another one of these...
October 6, 2025 at 9:46 PM
I don't suppose we original season ticket holders are getting another one of these...
While there's a break in the action I thought I'd update the guidance verification for the season (alas, with EMXI not included). Google DeepMind maintaining its edge with track and competitive with the better models for intensity. HMON also having a fine year.
October 3, 2025 at 11:14 PM
While there's a break in the action I thought I'd update the guidance verification for the season (alas, with EMXI not included). Google DeepMind maintaining its edge with track and competitive with the better models for intensity. HMON also having a fine year.
Really tired of hearing all the complaints about how I can’t win the big one.
September 28, 2025 at 12:36 PM
Really tired of hearing all the complaints about how I can’t win the big one.
Waiting for news on Barkov's surgery and timeline is the first time in months I've wished I still had an X account.
September 26, 2025 at 6:52 PM
Waiting for news on Barkov's surgery and timeline is the first time in months I've wished I still had an X account.
While we wait for Imelda's shoe to drop, here's how the Google Deepmind (GDMI) has done this year against the regular guidance (apart from EMXI, which isn't in the public decks). For track, GDMI is a bit ahead of everything else, while for intensity it's in the middle of the pack.
September 26, 2025 at 6:42 PM
While we wait for Imelda's shoe to drop, here's how the Google Deepmind (GDMI) has done this year against the regular guidance (apart from EMXI, which isn't in the public decks). For track, GDMI is a bit ahead of everything else, while for intensity it's in the middle of the pack.
I've come to appreciate the way Alan sees the big picture and communicates it so efficiently and clearly, whether he's talking about general weather, tropical cyclones, or budget issues. I can't recommend his newsletter more highly for anyone with a stake in NOAA or an interest in weather.
We have been lucky to avoid a major hurricane landfall so far this season - but as the tropics heat up and a gov't shutdown looms, I wanted to take a deep dive into where we stand with federal staffing and budget. TLDR: it’s not great. More: tinyurl.com/bdedmty4
BalancedWx Special: Federal staffing and budget updates as possible shutdown looms
Staffing levels and morale still concerning as head into the fall
tinyurl.com
September 24, 2025 at 11:05 PM
I've come to appreciate the way Alan sees the big picture and communicates it so efficiently and clearly, whether he's talking about general weather, tropical cyclones, or budget issues. I can't recommend his newsletter more highly for anyone with a stake in NOAA or an interest in weather.