Energy, emissions, & climate
CICERO Center for International Climate Research, Oslo, Norway
https://cicero.oslo.no/en/employees/glen-peters
Glen Vecchione is an American composer, lyricist, poet, and writer. With David Dusing he co-authored the music and lyrics to the musical The Legend of Frankie and Johnny. He is the author and illustrator of several non-fiction books for children and young adults; many of them written on science related topics or on children's games. He has also published poetry for adults in several literary journals. Under the pseudonym Glen Peters he wrote the novel Where the Nights Smell Like Bread. .. more
Fossil CO2 emissions continue to rise in 2025 while the terrestrial carbon sink recovers to pre-El Niño strength.
The key findings are covered in two reports this year:
* ESSDD (preprint): essd.copernicus.org/preprints/es...
* Nature: www.nature.com/articles/s41...
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I should double check: www.equinor.com/about-us/202...
He is saying oil demand is higher than expected a few years ago. No. The opposite is true.
The IEA added a new scenario. Compare the last time that scenario was done in 2019...
He keeps comparing across scenarios, not across how the same scenario changes in time
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He said that the IEA said no need for new oil and gas before, now they say more oil and gas needed. This is wrong.
The no new oil and gas is if demand drops in line with 1.5C, and always has been.
1/
Reposted by Richard S.J. Tol, Jussi T. Eronen
It's now 94%, best guess. /1
unfccc.int/sites/defaul...
(unless someone comes up with new bigger budgets)
3/3
Or, if India (or China) had grown as the last few years, coal would have risen.
Basically, coal in 2025 is on a very delicate balance.
Similar case for oil (not as drastic).
2/
The country level changes are all rather small & often contrast previous years.
We project coal to increase, because it is flat everywhere and rising in the US.
1/
Reposted by Alistair Munro, Jussi T. Eronen, Béatrice Cointe
There is a lot of uncertainties on overshoot, but there is one thing that we are 100% sure about:
GHG emissions need to go down >90% in decades for overshoot to be a reality.
www.swp-berlin.org/publikation/...
Reposted by Glen P. Peters, Jussi T. Eronen
It's now 94%, best guess. /1
unfccc.int/sites/defaul...
Reposted by Glen P. Peters
This 2-page doc sets out the division of labour:
Turkey = host and "COP31 president"
Australia = "president of negotiations"
unfccc.int/sites/def...
More feasible is that the authors didn't assess all the literature or didn't do a good enough job. That is not censorship. Did you mention this in the IPCC review cycles?
Reposted by Glen P. Peters, Juan Cole
Reposted by Glen P. Peters
robbieandrew.github.io/china/
Reposted by Tuomas Mattila