Glen Peters
@glenpeters.bsky.social
Energy, emissions, & climate
CICERO Center for International Climate Research, Oslo, Norway
https://cicero.oslo.no/en/employees/glen-peters
Glen Vecchione is an American composer, lyricist, poet, and writer. With David Dusing he co-authored the music and lyrics to the musical The Legend of Frankie and Johnny. He is the author and illustrator of several non-fiction books for children and young adults; many of them written on science related topics or on children's games. He has also published poetry for adults in several literary journals. Under the pseudonym Glen Peters he wrote the novel Where the Nights Smell Like Bread. .. more
Environmental science
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Glen Peters
@glenpeters.bsky.social
· Nov 13
📢Global Carbon Budget 2025📢
Fossil CO2 emissions continue to rise in 2025 while the terrestrial carbon sink recovers to pre-El Niño strength.
The key findings are covered in two reports this year:
* ESSDD (preprint): essd.copernicus.org/preprints/es...
* Nature: www.nature.com/articles/s41...
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Fossil CO2 emissions continue to rise in 2025 while the terrestrial carbon sink recovers to pre-El Niño strength.
The key findings are covered in two reports this year:
* ESSDD (preprint): essd.copernicus.org/preprints/es...
* Nature: www.nature.com/articles/s41...
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Reposted by Glen P. Peters
Over the whole of 2025, India's national rainfall was only about 6% higher than in 2024, but the record-wet May is one of the reasons for much lower electricity demand last year.
robbieandrew.github.io/india/
robbieandrew.github.io/india/
Well, the collective of individual trees.
Emerging climate impact on carbon sinks in a consolidated carbon budget - Nature
A re-assessment of the global carbon budget shows the natural land sink is substantially smaller than previously estimated, indicating emerging impacts of climate change on the evolution of the carbon...
www.nature.com
CO2 is plant food (CO2 fertilisation), but CO2 also causes climate change (temperature, precipitation changes), which forests tend not to like. Forests don't like being cut down either!
We are crossing a point where the climate change effects become noticeable.
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
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We are crossing a point where the climate change effects become noticeable.
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
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The CO2 fertilisation effect is positive everywhere (a), while the climate effect is negative particularly in Latin America (b), & the land-use change effect (c) is negative across the tropics.
The net effect (d) leads to many sources across the tropics.
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The net effect (d) leads to many sources across the tropics.
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We looked at these effects by region, comparing the competing effects of
* CO2 fertilisation
* climate
* land-use change
SE Asia & Latin America are actually net sources of carbon, despite strong CO2 fertilisation.
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* CO2 fertilisation
* climate
* land-use change
SE Asia & Latin America are actually net sources of carbon, despite strong CO2 fertilisation.
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It means we can better estimate climate feedbacks!
The land & ocean CO₂ sinks are 25% & 7% smaller, than they would have been without the effects of climate change & variability.
Combined, this is equivalent to the total sink (land & ocean) being nearly 20% smaller than otherwise.
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The land & ocean CO₂ sinks are 25% & 7% smaller, than they would have been without the effects of climate change & variability.
Combined, this is equivalent to the total sink (land & ocean) being nearly 20% smaller than otherwise.
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Reposted by Robbie M. Andrew, Richard Waite
In the latest carbon budget, we revised...
* up land-use change emissions
* up the ocean sink (now takes up 29% of total emissions)
* down the land sink (now takes up 21% of total emissions)
* the "budget imbalance" now has zero trend
What does this mean?
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
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* up land-use change emissions
* up the ocean sink (now takes up 29% of total emissions)
* down the land sink (now takes up 21% of total emissions)
* the "budget imbalance" now has zero trend
What does this mean?
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
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In any case, I think the problem is the lack of data and interest in forests between max growth and "old growth".
yes, true. Terminology is not good. "old growth" in Norway will be crappy forests in bad locations, as they had no value & were not harvested. Those forests tell us nothing about "old growth" in productive / fertile areas.
It is not necessary to have a financial transfer at each point. Things can be netted in the supply chain (like MVA).
There will be a multitude of non-financial approaches too. The main point is there is no incentive to keep a forest standing. That can be fixed.
There will be a multitude of non-financial approaches too. The main point is there is no incentive to keep a forest standing. That can be fixed.
You keep looking for problems, not solutions. You can implement a system that just pays a carbon fee at the time of harvest. You get nothing for keeping the forest standing, but you pay if you cut it down. Then the question is to figure out how the rebate system works (duration, quality, etc).
Which does not mean zero harvest (which is how they interpret any discussion related to this issue). It means weighing up different values, the value of harvest versus the value of not harvesting. The latter is currently zero (or even negative with the current incentive structure).
I don't think the barrier is policy options. The barrier is getting over the historical way of thinking about a forest only existing to harvest. Back to my original post / thread. The industry does not see any value in a forest beyond peak increment. The industry needs a paradigm shift in thinking.
Other methods include paying a co2 price at the time of harvest. So you get a credit for growing a forest, a debit for destroying it. This is essentially how the New Zealand system works, I think (you would have to fact check me). There are a multitude of system. So any "but" has a solution.
The alternative is to harvest the forest, eg 100Mm3 per year, so it is the relative cost wood per m3 versus per tCO2. Harvest also has a cost. So the required carbon price may be much lower to encourage conservation. There are different systems one could use to incentivise conservation.
That took a while. Glad it is finally out!
Bård Lahn
@bard.lahn.no
· 19d
Analysing the use of emissions scenarios in practice - npj Climate Action
npj Climate Action - Analysing the use of emissions scenarios in practice
www.nature.com
New paper! How are emissions scenarios 📉 from the IPCC (and other sources) actually used by decision-makers? We asked them, and the results are out just in time for the holidays 🧑🎄🤶🧑🎄 (with @idasogn.bsky.social & @climansen.bsky.social)
According to the Norwegian National Forest Inventory (NFI), annual tree volume growth continues even in old growth forests.
Peak growth is around 40 years, but after 80 years the annual increment stays constant (meaning the volume grows).
landsskog.nibio.no
Peak growth is around 40 years, but after 80 years the annual increment stays constant (meaning the volume grows).
landsskog.nibio.no
In case you were wondering what it looks like if you use annual CO2 emissions and not cumulative...
(If you turn you head to the side, and use a mirror, you can think of atmospheric CO2 as a proxy for time, then the emissions looks like emissions as a function of time)
(If you turn you head to the side, and use a mirror, you can think of atmospheric CO2 as a proxy for time, then the emissions looks like emissions as a function of time)
There is a strong relationship between temperature & cumulative CO2 emissions.
The relationship is different for CO2 concentration, but approximately linear:
* CO2 concentration grows faster than cumulative emissions
* Declining CO2 emissions leads to declining concentration
rdcu.be/d9Rnm
The relationship is different for CO2 concentration, but approximately linear:
* CO2 concentration grows faster than cumulative emissions
* Declining CO2 emissions leads to declining concentration
rdcu.be/d9Rnm
Yes, that is correct (and was sort of my point). They collect loads of information up until (harvest) maturity, disaggregating into five maturity / harvest classes, but provide no disaggregation past harvest maturity. It is a harvest dominated system, all questions have the same answer: harvest.
Reposted by Richard Betts
My pet theory remains that most of the fuss about 2023 was because most of the projections (from late 2022) were wrong since they got El Nino wrong (they thought it was La Nina).
It is not easy getting El Nino right either: 2023 is either La Nina or El Nino depending on lags and annualisation.
It is not easy getting El Nino right either: 2023 is either La Nina or El Nino depending on lags and annualisation.
Overlooked hydrogen emissions are heating Earth and supercharging methane, research finds
Rising global emissions of hydrogen over the past three decades have added to the planet's warming temperatures and amplified the impact of methane, one of the most potent greenhouse gases, according ...
phys.org
Hydrogen does not directly warm the climate, but interacts with OH to extend the life of CH4.
"More hydrogen means fewer detergents [OH] in the atmosphere, causing methane to persist longer &, therefore, warm the climate longer"
phys.org/news/2025-12...
Article: www.nature.com/articles/s41...
"More hydrogen means fewer detergents [OH] in the atmosphere, causing methane to persist longer &, therefore, warm the climate longer"
phys.org/news/2025-12...
Article: www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Hydrogen emissions are ‘supercharging’ the warming impact of methane - Carbon Brief
The warming impact of hydrogen has been “overlooked” in projections of climate change, authors of the latest “global hydrogen budget” say.
www.carbonbrief.org
The Global Carbon Project has just published the most comprehensive Global Hydrogen Budget to date.
H2, although not a GHG, has an indirect Global Warming Potential 37 times more potent than CO2.
Carbon Brief:
www.carbonbrief.org/hydrogen-emi...
Research paper:
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
H2, although not a GHG, has an indirect Global Warming Potential 37 times more potent than CO2.
Carbon Brief:
www.carbonbrief.org/hydrogen-emi...
Research paper:
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
The global hydrogen budget - Nature
Trends in global H2 sources and sinks are analysed from 1990 to 2020, and a comprehensive budget for the decade 2010–2020 is presented.
www.nature.com
Read the study here: www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Or get the more digestible version from @ayeshatandon.carbonbrief.org @carbonbrief.org
www.carbonbrief.org/hydrogen-emi...
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Or get the more digestible version from @ayeshatandon.carbonbrief.org @carbonbrief.org
www.carbonbrief.org/hydrogen-emi...
5/5
The aggregated temperature effect of H2 is of the order 0.01-0.05C, depending on scenario. This is relatively small, but does not mean H2 is the best energy carrier.
We did not look at H2 substitution in the energy system, that would require different modelling tools.
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We did not look at H2 substitution in the energy system, that would require different modelling tools.
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The climate impacts of H2 depend strongly on the background CH4 emissions.
While it is obviously important to reduce hydrogen leaks, reducing CH4 reduces the production of H2 by oxidation.
We should reduce CH4 emissions anyway, but the H2 effect is yet another reason.
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While it is obviously important to reduce hydrogen leaks, reducing CH4 reduces the production of H2 by oxidation.
We should reduce CH4 emissions anyway, but the H2 effect is yet another reason.
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