Hyperlexic
@hyperlexic.bsky.social
3.3K followers 1.6K following 20K posts
Queer East Bay GenX native & parent. He/him. Had my mask pic before the fascists. Follow me so I can disappoint you.
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hyperlexic.bsky.social
yeah I think we should have taken PG&E when it went bankrupt. monopoly rate regulation seems doomed to regulatory capture.
hyperlexic.bsky.social
Ok signing off for now.

If this thread interested you I’d say: follow @volts.wtf and @canarymedia.com! and listen to @volts.wtf’s podcast, it’s fantastic!
hyperlexic.bsky.social
But I wouldn’t fully trust my word on this. Moreover not sure who to trust - basically every group has very material financial interests that shape their analysis. (eg solar industry & legacy home solar customers are biased, so are the utilities, etc)
hyperlexic.bsky.social
honestly “rate case” is such an arcane area that I’m not going to try to answer…
hyperlexic.bsky.social
My layman’s understanding is that the big drivers are:
1) the utilities are spending A LOT on hardening the grid
2) we put all that on per-kWh rate costs, not on baseline connect fees
3) legacy home solar users therefore aren’t paying for the grid upgrade costs
hyperlexic.bsky.social
(maybe later I’ll try to look up exactly how much is going into grid retrofit but I think it’s on the order of $5-10 billion a year statewide, and that’s a big portion of the rates)
hyperlexic.bsky.social
Helpful clarification / correction #1.

To be clear: I don’t work in this space, I’m not an expert, hence my “layman” description above. I might be off in particulars but I’m confident I’m right on the trends!
frangsbo.bsky.social
Gas will go to zero first in the spring, when load is low because far less air conditioning load is needed. (In some areas of the state more transmission may be needed). May, April, March in that order. Summer will probably take another decade.
hyperlexic.bsky.social
how reliable is the imports emissions measure do you think?
Reposted by Hyperlexic
stevenbeschloss.bsky.social
Elected Republicans are getting desperate. Their lies are getting more ridiculous. They’re now trying to discourage protest by claiming No Kings will be a hate rally with terrorists. Millions of Americans have the chance to demonstrate how wrong they are.

www.americaamerica.news/p/will-you-s...
Will You Stand Up for the Right of Peaceful Protest?
A Saturday Prompt
www.americaamerica.news
hyperlexic.bsky.social
probably I’m making a bad assumption that the peak was on solstice.
hyperlexic.bsky.social
Huh - why does this show a much lower peak do you think?
hyperlexic.bsky.social
Btw here’s the prior year graph for the same day. Battery peak is up 20% YOY.
hyperlexic.bsky.social
thanks! yes that’s more accurate. looks like current gas peaks are more late summer / early fall.
hyperlexic.bsky.social
honestly “rate case” is such an arcane area that I’m not going to try to answer…
hyperlexic.bsky.social
Link to branch. At peak this year utility scale batteries were providing 8.5 gigawatts of power. (I don’t think that include home batteries but IDK).
hyperlexic.bsky.social
Depends on time of year obviously but looking back to solstice, batteries were the largest source of power in twilight (8:20 pm). Looks like ~1/3 of demand at that point.
hyperlexic.bsky.social
Equinox batteries were ~1/5 of supply at peak, 3rd largest source.
hyperlexic.bsky.social
Depends on time of year obviously but looking back to solstice, batteries were the largest source of power in twilight (8:20 pm). Looks like ~1/3 of demand at that point.
hyperlexic.bsky.social
(maybe later I’ll try to look up exactly how much is going into grid retrofit but I think it’s on the order of $5-10 billion a year statewide, and that’s a big portion of the rates)
hyperlexic.bsky.social
as an aside, California electricity is really expensive, but AFAIK it’s not because of solar / renewables - it’s because we’re putting billions into hardening the grid against climate change & wildfire.
hyperlexic.bsky.social
We have got to do something about electricity rates in California.
hyperlexic.bsky.social
i think only if you keep the mirrors focused on a point but IDK
hyperlexic.bsky.social
That’s where, as @volts.wtf keeps pointing out, California will have a really interesting new problem / opportunity: what do do with all this excess power in summer months?
hyperlexic.bsky.social
The cost of new solar + battery will keep going down so that blue gas line will keep going down just due to economics.

Pretty soon gas will go to 0 in the summer months.

After we’ll keep building such that gas will go towards 0 in WINTER months - meaning huge solar overcapacity in the summer.
hyperlexic.bsky.social
My layman’s take on the graph below is that solar + battery is now cheap enough that economically “carbon free power” is now a completely solved problem in California in the summer.
hyperlexic.bsky.social
(when it was planned in the late 00s, this seemed like a reasonable solution for “carbon-free power in the afternoon and evening” - have a big vat of molten sodium that could keep running steam generators late in the day. it wasn’t clear that “a bunch of computer batteries” would be cheaper”)
hyperlexic.bsky.social
(this project gets a lot of flack from right wing pollution fans, but it wasn’t “failed” - it was just a big bet on a technology that turned out to be more expensive than PV solar + batteries. but guess what - EVERYTHING is turning out to be more expensive than PV + batteries)