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Hyperlexic @hyperlexic.bsky.social · 4m

yeah I think we should have taken PG&E when it went bankrupt. monopoly rate regulation seems doomed to regulatory capture.

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Hyperlexic @hyperlexic.bsky.social · 8m

Ok signing off for now.

If this thread interested you I’d say: follow @volts.wtf and @canarymedia.com! and listen to @volts.wtf’s podcast, it’s fantastic!

Hyperlexic @hyperlexic.bsky.social · 13m

But I wouldn’t fully trust my word on this. Moreover not sure who to trust - basically every group has very material financial interests that shape their analysis. (eg solar industry & legacy home solar customers are biased, so are the utilities, etc)

Hyperlexic @hyperlexic.bsky.social · 28m

honestly “rate case” is such an arcane area that I’m not going to try to answer…

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Hyperlexic @hyperlexic.bsky.social · 16m

My layman’s understanding is that the big drivers are:
1) the utilities are spending A LOT on hardening the grid
2) we put all that on per-kWh rate costs, not on baseline connect fees
3) legacy home solar users therefore aren’t paying for the grid upgrade costs

Hyperlexic @hyperlexic.bsky.social · 39m

(maybe later I’ll try to look up exactly how much is going into grid retrofit but I think it’s on the order of $5-10 billion a year statewide, and that’s a big portion of the rates)

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Hyperlexic @hyperlexic.bsky.social · 18m

Helpful clarification / correction #1.

To be clear: I don’t work in this space, I’m not an expert, hence my “layman” description above. I might be off in particulars but I’m confident I’m right on the trends!

Honest J @frangsbo.bsky.social · 27m

Gas will go to zero first in the spring, when load is low because far less air conditioning load is needed. (In some areas of the state more transmission may be needed). May, April, March in that order. Summer will probably take another decade.

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Hyperlexic @hyperlexic.bsky.social · 20m

how reliable is the imports emissions measure do you think?

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Reposted by Hyperlexic

Steven Beschloss @stevenbeschloss.bsky.social · 22m

Elected Republicans are getting desperate. Their lies are getting more ridiculous. They’re now trying to discourage protest by claiming No Kings will be a hate rally with terrorists. Millions of Americans have the chance to demonstrate how wrong they are.

www.americaamerica.news/p/will-you-s...

Will You Stand Up for the Right of Peaceful Protest?

A Saturday Prompt

www.americaamerica.news

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Hyperlexic @hyperlexic.bsky.social · 22m

probably I’m making a bad assumption that the peak was on solstice.

Hyperlexic @hyperlexic.bsky.social · 23m

Huh - why does this show a much lower peak do you think?

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Hyperlexic @hyperlexic.bsky.social · 23m

Btw here’s the prior year graph for the same day. Battery peak is up 20% YOY.

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Hyperlexic @hyperlexic.bsky.social · 26m

thanks! yes that’s more accurate. looks like current gas peaks are more late summer / early fall.

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Hyperlexic @hyperlexic.bsky.social · 28m

honestly “rate case” is such an arcane area that I’m not going to try to answer…

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Hyperlexic @hyperlexic.bsky.social · 29m

Link to branch. At peak this year utility scale batteries were providing 8.5 gigawatts of power. (I don’t think that include home batteries but IDK).

Hyperlexic @hyperlexic.bsky.social · 34m

Depends on time of year obviously but looking back to solstice, batteries were the largest source of power in twilight (8:20 pm). Looks like ~1/3 of demand at that point.

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Hyperlexic @hyperlexic.bsky.social · 30m

play around here. www.caiso.com/todays-outlo...

Hyperlexic @hyperlexic.bsky.social · 31m

Equinox batteries were ~1/5 of supply at peak, 3rd largest source.

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Hyperlexic @hyperlexic.bsky.social · 33m

Depends on time of year obviously but looking back to solstice, batteries were the largest source of power in twilight (8:20 pm). Looks like ~1/3 of demand at that point.

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Hyperlexic @hyperlexic.bsky.social · 39m

(maybe later I’ll try to look up exactly how much is going into grid retrofit but I think it’s on the order of $5-10 billion a year statewide, and that’s a big portion of the rates)

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Hyperlexic @hyperlexic.bsky.social · 41m

as an aside, California electricity is really expensive, but AFAIK it’s not because of solar / renewables - it’s because we’re putting billions into hardening the grid against climate change & wildfire.

Hyperlexic @hyperlexic.bsky.social · 3d

We have got to do something about electricity rates in California.

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Hyperlexic @hyperlexic.bsky.social · 43m

i think only if you keep the mirrors focused on a point but IDK

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Hyperlexic @hyperlexic.bsky.social · 44m

That’s where, as @volts.wtf keeps pointing out, California will have a really interesting new problem / opportunity: what do do with all this excess power in summer months?

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Hyperlexic @hyperlexic.bsky.social · 45m

The cost of new solar + battery will keep going down so that blue gas line will keep going down just due to economics.

Pretty soon gas will go to 0 in the summer months.

After we’ll keep building such that gas will go towards 0 in WINTER months - meaning huge solar overcapacity in the summer.

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Hyperlexic @hyperlexic.bsky.social · 48m

My layman’s take on the graph below is that solar + battery is now cheap enough that economically “carbon free power” is now a completely solved problem in California in the summer.

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Hyperlexic @hyperlexic.bsky.social · 50m

this thread triggered by this latest update

Solar is crushing gas power in California this year

The state’s combination of solar and battery plants has pushed clean generation of electricity to new heights, offering a welcome reprieve from high gas…

www.canarymedia.com

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Hyperlexic @hyperlexic.bsky.social · 52m

(when it was planned in the late 00s, this seemed like a reasonable solution for “carbon-free power in the afternoon and evening” - have a big vat of molten sodium that could keep running steam generators late in the day. it wasn’t clear that “a bunch of computer batteries” would be cheaper”)

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Hyperlexic @hyperlexic.bsky.social · 57m

(this project gets a lot of flack from right wing pollution fans, but it wasn’t “failed” - it was just a big bet on a technology that turned out to be more expensive than PV solar + batteries. but guess what - EVERYTHING is turning out to be more expensive than PV + batteries)

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