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James Bowes @jamesbowes01.bsky.social · 12h

2. There’s a proposal to remove the new entrant discount for jobs on the Temporary Shortage List and make these ineligible for ILR. People switching from the graduate visa are likely overrepresented on the TSL (eg sales, marketing, data analytics or technical roles) so this would be a big cut. (2/2)

James Bowes @jamesbowes01.bsky.social · 12h

www.gov.uk/government/p...

A few thoughts on this:
1. If jobs are downgraded to NQF level 1-2 then that usually means you can only renew a visa if it’s the same occupation and same employer. The proposal here would affect many of the most common non-graduate jobs for people to do on visas. (1/x)

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James Bowes @jamesbowes01.bsky.social · 12h

Beat me to it.

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James Bowes @jamesbowes01.bsky.social · 19h

ukandeu.ac.uk/diversity-eu...

The surprising diversity of the EU national population in the UK - UK in a changing Europe

James Bowes unpacks the latest census and EU Settlement Scheme data to explore the diversity of the EU national population in the UK.

ukandeu.ac.uk

James Bowes @jamesbowes01.bsky.social · 19h

www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/36-28...

Recent trends in immigration from Canada to the United States

The flow of migrants across international borders is a critical factor shaping national economies, innovation capacity, and societal development in the 21st century. For neighbouring countries with de...

www150.statcan.gc.ca

James Bowes @jamesbowes01.bsky.social · 19h

www.rnz.co.nz/news/politic...

Nearly half of Kiwis applying for Australian citizenship born elsewhere

What the Australian government's official figures say about New Zealanders moving across the Tasman.

www.rnz.co.nz

James Bowes @jamesbowes01.bsky.social · 19h

35% of New Zealanders moving to Australia were born outside of New Zealand (and 48% of New Zealanders applying for Australian citizenship). 60% of Canadians applying for a US employment based green card are born outside of Canada. This is similar to Western Europeans who came to the UK under FoM.

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James Bowes @jamesbowes01.bsky.social · 22h

Pretty much all the Chagossians that came here moved to Crawley and they’re still only about 3% of the population there.

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James Bowes @jamesbowes01.bsky.social · 1d

The number of Iranians crossing the Channel has been higher than the number entering the EU as a whole for a few years now so it’s obvious most were already in Europe. The recent increase in people coming here is Eritreans, Somalis and Sudanese. The former two sometimes but not always via Germany.

James Bowes @jamesbowes01.bsky.social · 1d

I think it’s more than just Dublin. It’s also the new EU laws that are coming in (a presumption to reject an asylum claim if the applicant has been rejected by another EU country) and a tightening of national laws (eg in Germany).

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James Bowes @jamesbowes01.bsky.social · 2d

Is the uptick in family visa applications because of a rush by refugees to apply for family reunification before the ban?

James Bowes @jamesbowes01.bsky.social · 2d

Excluding social care, for jobs below graduate level it’s roughly a 40:40:20 split of jobs initially recommended for the TSL: jobs that have dropped below NQF level 3 : jobs that remain NQF level 3 but not on the TSL.

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James Bowes @jamesbowes01.bsky.social · 2d

Top 20 occupations below graduate level. Red is the ones being downgraded to NQF level 1-2 (not just the jobs ineligible for TSL/ISL)

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James Bowes @jamesbowes01.bsky.social · 2d

Red are the ones that would be below NQF level 3 (technically care workers always were but had an exemption).

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James Bowes @jamesbowes01.bsky.social · 2d

Also what happens at visa renewal if a job is removed from the TSL or ISL?

James Bowes @jamesbowes01.bsky.social · 2d

It may be worth looking into what happens with the occupations that are downgraded from NQF level 3 to NQF level 1-2. Normally this means people can renew their visa only if it’s the same employer and occupation. If so this will affect a lot of people (even if care workers get an exemption).

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James Bowes @jamesbowes01.bsky.social · 2d

Slight increase in student visa grants. I think this is probably because of clampdowns in other countries, but maybe also because it’s harder to get a work visa now so people are exploring other ways of coming here (eg you pretty much have to study here first to get a job as a care worker).

James Bowes @jamesbowes01.bsky.social · 2d

Most people doing jobs downgraded from NQF6 will get transitional protections as they already have a work visa. But it could be significant to remove sales accounts and business development managers and financial accounts managers. These are often well paid jobs too.

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James Bowes @jamesbowes01.bsky.social · 2d

They’ll probably find an exemption for care workers, senior care workers and auxiliary nurses. But they’ll be tempted not to for chefs, butchers, catering and bar managers, shopkeepers, sales supervisors, sales administrators etc.

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James Bowes @jamesbowes01.bsky.social · 2d

Hidden within this report they’ve proposed downgrading 4 jobs to NQF3-5 and 31 jobs to NQF level 1-2. The latter could be significant as normal protocol when this happens is that visas can only be renewed if they’re for the same occupation and same employer.

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James Bowes @jamesbowes01.bsky.social · 2d

Most visa applications for construction workers get rejected now. There was a huge drop in grants in quarter 2 of 2025 and that was before the ban on dependants.

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James Bowes @jamesbowes01.bsky.social · 2d

You can see why so much gets built in the East Midlands relative to other areas here.

James Bowes @jamesbowes01.bsky.social · 2d

I can’t see there being much uptake for temporary visas that don‘t lead to settlement and don’t have the right to bring dependants.

James Bowes @jamesbowes01.bsky.social · 2d

Yes, even though the NHS doesn’t currently need to recruit many nurses overseas it certainly can’t afford to lose the immigrant nurses it already has. This policy is particularly nasty as it’s an attack on immigrants already here, changing the rules on them after they’ve arrived.

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James Bowes @jamesbowes01.bsky.social · 3d

It depends on what terms we could join the customs union on. Turkey have a customs union with the EU but get none of the benefits of the free trade agreements the EU signs with third countries.

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