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James Bowes @jamesbowes01.bsky.social · 18h

Is the uptick in family visa applications because of a rush by refugees to apply for family reunification before the ban?

James Bowes @jamesbowes01.bsky.social · 19h

Excluding social care, for jobs below graduate level it’s roughly a 40:40:20 split of jobs initially recommended for the TSL: jobs that have dropped below NQF level 3 : jobs that remain NQF level 3 but not on the TSL.

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James Bowes @jamesbowes01.bsky.social · 19h

Top 20 occupations below graduate level. Red is the ones being downgraded to NQF level 1-2 (not just the jobs ineligible for TSL/ISL)

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James Bowes @jamesbowes01.bsky.social · 19h

Red are the ones that would be below NQF level 3 (technically care workers always were but had an exemption).

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James Bowes @jamesbowes01.bsky.social · 20h

Also what happens at visa renewal if a job is removed from the TSL or ISL?

James Bowes @jamesbowes01.bsky.social · 20h

It may be worth looking into what happens with the occupations that are downgraded from NQF level 3 to NQF level 1-2. Normally this means people can renew their visa only if it’s the same employer and occupation. If so this will affect a lot of people (even if care workers get an exemption).

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James Bowes @jamesbowes01.bsky.social · 20h

Slight increase in student visa grants. I think this is probably because of clampdowns in other countries, but maybe also because it’s harder to get a work visa now so people are exploring other ways of coming here (eg you pretty much have to study here first to get a job as a care worker).

James Bowes @jamesbowes01.bsky.social · 20h

Most people doing jobs downgraded from NQF6 will get transitional protections as they already have a work visa. But it could be significant to remove sales accounts and business development managers and financial accounts managers. These are often well paid jobs too.

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James Bowes @jamesbowes01.bsky.social · 20h

They’ll probably find an exemption for care workers, senior care workers and auxiliary nurses. But they’ll be tempted not to for chefs, butchers, catering and bar managers, shopkeepers, sales supervisors, sales administrators etc.

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James Bowes @jamesbowes01.bsky.social · 20h

Hidden within this report they’ve proposed downgrading 4 jobs to NQF3-5 and 31 jobs to NQF level 1-2. The latter could be significant as normal protocol when this happens is that visas can only be renewed if they’re for the same occupation and same employer.

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James Bowes @jamesbowes01.bsky.social · 21h

Most visa applications for construction workers get rejected now. There was a huge drop in grants in quarter 2 of 2025 and that was before the ban on dependants.

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James Bowes @jamesbowes01.bsky.social · 21h

You can see why so much gets built in the East Midlands relative to other areas here.

James Bowes @jamesbowes01.bsky.social · 22h

I can’t see there being much uptake for temporary visas that don‘t lead to settlement and don’t have the right to bring dependants.

James Bowes @jamesbowes01.bsky.social · 1d

Yes, even though the NHS doesn’t currently need to recruit many nurses overseas it certainly can’t afford to lose the immigrant nurses it already has. This policy is particularly nasty as it’s an attack on immigrants already here, changing the rules on them after they’ve arrived.

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James Bowes @jamesbowes01.bsky.social · 1d

It depends on what terms we could join the customs union on. Turkey have a customs union with the EU but get none of the benefits of the free trade agreements the EU signs with third countries.

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James Bowes @jamesbowes01.bsky.social · 1d

I’m doing one in data analysis.

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James Bowes @jamesbowes01.bsky.social · 1d

Work purposes*

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James Bowes @jamesbowes01.bsky.social · 1d

In many respects the push for Brexit was a reaction to David Cameron’s policy of having immigration for work purposely only from the EU and not from non-EU countries. Of course EU immigration was going to rise massively to fill the gap.

bsky.app/profile/jame...

James Bowes @jamesbowes01.bsky.social · 5d

You might be thinking, surely immigration restrictions won't work as they've always failed in the past. However, David Cameron was very actually successful at cutting non-EU immigration dramatically. The only thing is EU immigration increased to fill the gap, which couldn't happen this time. (6/x)

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James Bowes @jamesbowes01.bsky.social · 2d

There are a lot of Roma in Italy though so there could genuinely be a lot of Italian Roma. In the UK census they clustered heavily in London.

James Bowes @jamesbowes01.bsky.social · 2d

Most games work well for me normally, but there are a few that I just can't get working. Bully always crashes for example. (I still can't believe they actually made that as a game haha).

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James Bowes @jamesbowes01.bsky.social · 2d

I assume they’ll prioritise UK graduates now. Most of the applications are from overseas. The acceptance rate is already much higher amongst U.K. graduates than international applicants but it’s not 100%.

James Bowes @jamesbowes01.bsky.social · 2d

Sometimes I wonder if he’s trying to get himself kicked out of the Conservatives to make himself a martyr but it’s just not working as Kemi lets anything go.

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James Bowes @jamesbowes01.bsky.social · 3d

Yes, banking type jobs have held up best (but have still fallen). Accounting has fallen a lot, and consulting has fallen somewhat. Nursing is the most extreme (because of budgetary issues in the NHS) but also IT is pretty steep. Doctors will fall if they prioritise UK graduates for training posts.

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James Bowes @jamesbowes01.bsky.social · 3d

I think it does risk the pipeline from international students as whilst they may well get a job paying the new entrant rate, they’ll struggle to be earning the higher of £41,700 and the median salary for their occupation within 4 years of graduation. Maybe in banking they’ll be okay.

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James Bowes @jamesbowes01.bsky.social · 3d

The other uncertainty is whether the jobs market and economy will pick up for high skilled jobs. If this happens we could see an increase in high skilled workers (not to 2022 levels), but only if they aren’t made to wait 10 years for ILR.

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