James Bowes
@jamesbowes01.bsky.social
Reposted by James Bowes
It's not that hard. We don't have to let workers or students come here in the first place - as long as we are willing to bear the economic, tax and other costs of not doing so. But if we do let them in, we should treat them decently. And their children!
Child poverty is the fault of the parents, says the Labour Home Secretary. Or the fault of the children for existing. I'm not sure but it seems to be one of the two.
"Are you worried that there will be an impact on child poverty?"
Home Secretary "This is a system of economic migration ... they chose to bring their families with them" is the underlying principle.
Home Secretary "This is a system of economic migration ... they chose to bring their families with them" is the underlying principle.
February 6, 2026 at 10:12 AM
It's not that hard. We don't have to let workers or students come here in the first place - as long as we are willing to bear the economic, tax and other costs of not doing so. But if we do let them in, we should treat them decently. And their children!
Reposted by James Bowes
Labour MP @tonyvaughanmp.bsky.social Opened the Westminster Hall debate on the ‘earned settlement’ proposals, leading calls to abandon the plans to double migrants’ wait for settlement.
'Let us be a country that always honours its debts, not just its financial ones, but its moral ones too'
'Let us be a country that always honours its debts, not just its financial ones, but its moral ones too'
February 3, 2026 at 9:23 PM
Labour MP @tonyvaughanmp.bsky.social Opened the Westminster Hall debate on the ‘earned settlement’ proposals, leading calls to abandon the plans to double migrants’ wait for settlement.
'Let us be a country that always honours its debts, not just its financial ones, but its moral ones too'
'Let us be a country that always honours its debts, not just its financial ones, but its moral ones too'
This was particularly bad in 2023. The Home Office have clamped down hard on visa applications from abroad, so this is becoming less common. However, it sounds like there's still a big problem with this when people apply for a visa in country (something we have very little data about).
A Times investigation has found that visa agents are selling Skilled Worker visas for positions that don't exist.
It's well worth reading the full article (link in the next post), but here's how it works.
It's well worth reading the full article (link in the next post), but here's how it works.
January 28, 2026 at 6:27 PM
This was particularly bad in 2023. The Home Office have clamped down hard on visa applications from abroad, so this is becoming less common. However, it sounds like there's still a big problem with this when people apply for a visa in country (something we have very little data about).
January 23, 2026 at 2:07 PM
Canada has beaten us to having negative net migration. It’s likely to be the same story in the U.K. by the end of this year.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
Canada's population drops as country caps immigration
Canada's population declined by more than 76,000 people between July and October, driven by a drop in foreign students and temporary workers.
www.bbc.co.uk
January 22, 2026 at 5:03 PM
Canada has beaten us to having negative net migration. It’s likely to be the same story in the U.K. by the end of this year.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
Whilst immigration restrictions are the main reason for the fall in net migration, they’re not the only reason. There has been a huge drop in demand for most high skilled jobs since 2022. Only financial analysts and (not for much longer with the new training rules) doctors have broken this trend.
January 16, 2026 at 3:51 PM
Whilst immigration restrictions are the main reason for the fall in net migration, they’re not the only reason. There has been a huge drop in demand for most high skilled jobs since 2022. Only financial analysts and (not for much longer with the new training rules) doctors have broken this trend.
Prioritising British medical graduates for training posts is likely to result in a significant fall in immigration of doctors. Most that come are taking up training posts. Some doctors will still come to train of course, as not all places will be filled, just not as many as currently.
January 14, 2026 at 11:59 AM
Prioritising British medical graduates for training posts is likely to result in a significant fall in immigration of doctors. Most that come are taking up training posts. Some doctors will still come to train of course, as not all places will be filled, just not as many as currently.
Reposted by James Bowes
The immigration doom loop in full swing.
Chasing the xenophobes is a doomed strategy both economically *and* politically.
(1/3)
archive.ph/pyVLg
Chasing the xenophobes is a doomed strategy both economically *and* politically.
(1/3)
archive.ph/pyVLg
January 10, 2026 at 3:52 AM
The immigration doom loop in full swing.
Chasing the xenophobes is a doomed strategy both economically *and* politically.
(1/3)
archive.ph/pyVLg
Chasing the xenophobes is a doomed strategy both economically *and* politically.
(1/3)
archive.ph/pyVLg
Reposted by James Bowes
Spineless, hopeless. (It was Mike Tapp, but can’t imagine the PM doing different).
January 5, 2026 at 8:50 AM
Spineless, hopeless. (It was Mike Tapp, but can’t imagine the PM doing different).
Change in small boat arrivals in the UK from 2024 to 2025 split by month and quarter. It’s clear that the recent fall is a real fall not just a seasonal one.
The biggest factor is likely to be fewer people reaching Europe, but recent harsher rules here may also be putting people off.
The biggest factor is likely to be fewer people reaching Europe, but recent harsher rules here may also be putting people off.
January 5, 2026 at 9:46 AM
Change in small boat arrivals in the UK from 2024 to 2025 split by month and quarter. It’s clear that the recent fall is a real fall not just a seasonal one.
The biggest factor is likely to be fewer people reaching Europe, but recent harsher rules here may also be putting people off.
The biggest factor is likely to be fewer people reaching Europe, but recent harsher rules here may also be putting people off.
Reposted by James Bowes
Britain’s population could start shrinking sooner than we think
Successive changes to immigration rules are seeing visa applications plummet. Meanwhile, revisions to data - plus an expected student exodus next year - should send the official emigration figures higher
1/4
Successive changes to immigration rules are seeing visa applications plummet. Meanwhile, revisions to data - plus an expected student exodus next year - should send the official emigration figures higher
1/4
December 21, 2025 at 11:37 AM
Britain’s population could start shrinking sooner than we think
Successive changes to immigration rules are seeing visa applications plummet. Meanwhile, revisions to data - plus an expected student exodus next year - should send the official emigration figures higher
1/4
Successive changes to immigration rules are seeing visa applications plummet. Meanwhile, revisions to data - plus an expected student exodus next year - should send the official emigration figures higher
1/4
Far more people in medium-skilled jobs who came in 2023 were sponsored by employers whose license has been revoked than in 2022. This is particularly bad for temporary shortage list jobs.
Excludes health and care, only includes jobs with 100+ visas for entry and employers sponsoring 6+ visas. (1/2)
Excludes health and care, only includes jobs with 100+ visas for entry and employers sponsoring 6+ visas. (1/2)
December 18, 2025 at 4:35 PM
Far more people in medium-skilled jobs who came in 2023 were sponsored by employers whose license has been revoked than in 2022. This is particularly bad for temporary shortage list jobs.
Excludes health and care, only includes jobs with 100+ visas for entry and employers sponsoring 6+ visas. (1/2)
Excludes health and care, only includes jobs with 100+ visas for entry and employers sponsoring 6+ visas. (1/2)
A good summary of the salary thresholds review yesterday: www.msn.com/en-gb/news/u...
MSN
www.msn.com
December 18, 2025 at 9:41 AM
A good summary of the salary thresholds review yesterday: www.msn.com/en-gb/news/u...
Recommendations (which the government may or may not accept):
1. Keep headline salary threshold of £41,700.
2. Lower occupational going rates back to 25th percentile.
3. Lower threshold for TSL list jobs (like the ISL).
4. Scrap discounts for people with PhDs.
www.gov.uk/government/p...
1. Keep headline salary threshold of £41,700.
2. Lower occupational going rates back to 25th percentile.
3. Lower threshold for TSL list jobs (like the ISL).
4. Scrap discounts for people with PhDs.
www.gov.uk/government/p...
Review of salary requirements
Report on the salary requirements and discounts for the Skilled Worker, Health and Care Worker, Global Business Mobility and Scale-up routes.
www.gov.uk
December 17, 2025 at 4:15 PM
Recommendations (which the government may or may not accept):
1. Keep headline salary threshold of £41,700.
2. Lower occupational going rates back to 25th percentile.
3. Lower threshold for TSL list jobs (like the ISL).
4. Scrap discounts for people with PhDs.
www.gov.uk/government/p...
1. Keep headline salary threshold of £41,700.
2. Lower occupational going rates back to 25th percentile.
3. Lower threshold for TSL list jobs (like the ISL).
4. Scrap discounts for people with PhDs.
www.gov.uk/government/p...
Reposted by James Bowes
I wrote this 18 months ago
"Net migration is falling sharply...since just before the pandemic, all job growth has been driven by immigration...it’s far from clear where any future labour force growth will come from."
ukandeu.ac.uk/immigration-...
"Net migration is falling sharply...since just before the pandemic, all job growth has been driven by immigration...it’s far from clear where any future labour force growth will come from."
ukandeu.ac.uk/immigration-...
December 16, 2025 at 9:17 AM
I wrote this 18 months ago
"Net migration is falling sharply...since just before the pandemic, all job growth has been driven by immigration...it’s far from clear where any future labour force growth will come from."
ukandeu.ac.uk/immigration-...
"Net migration is falling sharply...since just before the pandemic, all job growth has been driven by immigration...it’s far from clear where any future labour force growth will come from."
ukandeu.ac.uk/immigration-...
Reposted by James Bowes
Labour needs growth. But if it insists on preventing growth that might come from migration or Europe, something will have to give—perhaps their time in government, writes @benansell.bsky.social.
Labour’s Mr Micawber politics
The government hopes that ‘something will turn up’ to produce growth, but curbing immigration will only harm the economy
www.prospectmagazine.co.uk
December 15, 2025 at 4:52 PM
Labour needs growth. But if it insists on preventing growth that might come from migration or Europe, something will have to give—perhaps their time in government, writes @benansell.bsky.social.
Reposted by James Bowes
Few thoughts on the "Polish exodus" from the UK.
1. It's not an 'exodus', it's a slow drip. We're fine, thanks.
2. Migration is really complicated.
3. The absolute cheek of the very same media attacking Poles for years lamenting their departure.
4. What you can do?
THREAD 🧵
1. It's not an 'exodus', it's a slow drip. We're fine, thanks.
2. Migration is really complicated.
3. The absolute cheek of the very same media attacking Poles for years lamenting their departure.
4. What you can do?
THREAD 🧵
December 14, 2025 at 7:13 PM
Few thoughts on the "Polish exodus" from the UK.
1. It's not an 'exodus', it's a slow drip. We're fine, thanks.
2. Migration is really complicated.
3. The absolute cheek of the very same media attacking Poles for years lamenting their departure.
4. What you can do?
THREAD 🧵
1. It's not an 'exodus', it's a slow drip. We're fine, thanks.
2. Migration is really complicated.
3. The absolute cheek of the very same media attacking Poles for years lamenting their departure.
4. What you can do?
THREAD 🧵
MSN
www.msn.com
December 12, 2025 at 5:16 PM
The new basic compliance assessment rules seem to be having a bigger than expected impact too. For most of 2025, student visa applications were 8% higher than 2024. But figures for November 2025 are 14% lower than November 2024. Not the biggest month but points to a smaller January intake next year.
December 11, 2025 at 10:16 AM
The new basic compliance assessment rules seem to be having a bigger than expected impact too. For most of 2025, student visa applications were 8% higher than 2024. But figures for November 2025 are 14% lower than November 2024. Not the biggest month but points to a smaller January intake next year.
The restrictions on work visa rules brought in in July are cutting immigration much more than predicted. Dependant numbers remain higher, but will fall over time as most will be dependants of immigrants already here.
December 11, 2025 at 9:55 AM
The restrictions on work visa rules brought in in July are cutting immigration much more than predicted. Dependant numbers remain higher, but will fall over time as most will be dependants of immigrants already here.
The number of people crossing the Channel by small boat following the government's announcement of draconian rules for refugees. Not sure if this is just a coincidence but the announcement was made 17th November and the last crossing was 14th November.
December 3, 2025 at 6:34 PM
The number of people crossing the Channel by small boat following the government's announcement of draconian rules for refugees. Not sure if this is just a coincidence but the announcement was made 17th November and the last crossing was 14th November.
Why are my figures suggesting net migration will be negative in 2026 and 2027? Two reasons:
1. The fall in student emigration won't start until the latter half of 2027. Huge numbers of graduate visas were granted Jan 24-Jun 25.
2. The 15 year wait for ILR many people face will cause a mass exodus.
1. The fall in student emigration won't start until the latter half of 2027. Huge numbers of graduate visas were granted Jan 24-Jun 25.
2. The 15 year wait for ILR many people face will cause a mass exodus.
December 3, 2025 at 6:20 PM
Why are my figures suggesting net migration will be negative in 2026 and 2027? Two reasons:
1. The fall in student emigration won't start until the latter half of 2027. Huge numbers of graduate visas were granted Jan 24-Jun 25.
2. The 15 year wait for ILR many people face will cause a mass exodus.
1. The fall in student emigration won't start until the latter half of 2027. Huge numbers of graduate visas were granted Jan 24-Jun 25.
2. The 15 year wait for ILR many people face will cause a mass exodus.
Reposted by James Bowes
Net migration is plummeting. Why can’t Labour say so? | Heather Stewart
Net migration is plummeting. Why can’t Labour say so? | Heather Stewart
An honest debate is needed on this polarising topic as sectors such as social care struggle with recruitment
www.theguardian.com
November 30, 2025 at 12:01 PM
Net migration is plummeting. Why can’t Labour say so? | Heather Stewart
Revised net migration projection based on yesterday’s data, the new ILR policy and an expected gradual decline in dependant numbers (Currently dependant applications are double main applicant applications for work visas but this won’t last).
Yes it is negative in 2026. Roughly -110,000 to -10,000.
Yes it is negative in 2026. Roughly -110,000 to -10,000.
November 28, 2025 at 5:47 PM
Revised net migration projection based on yesterday’s data, the new ILR policy and an expected gradual decline in dependant numbers (Currently dependant applications are double main applicant applications for work visas but this won’t last).
Yes it is negative in 2026. Roughly -110,000 to -10,000.
Yes it is negative in 2026. Roughly -110,000 to -10,000.
Reposted by James Bowes
📉 The ONS has published stats that say net migration to UK drops 69% year on year
🤓 But we already knew that thanks to @jamesbowes01.bsky.social
You can read his piece predicting the collapse in net migration and its economic and political consequences here 👇
ukandeu.ac.uk/the-coming-c...
🤓 But we already knew that thanks to @jamesbowes01.bsky.social
You can read his piece predicting the collapse in net migration and its economic and political consequences here 👇
ukandeu.ac.uk/the-coming-c...
The coming collapse in immigration to the United Kingdom - UK in a changing Europe
James Bowes analyses the fall in net migration to the UK as a result of government policies and explores some of the political and economic consequences.
ukandeu.ac.uk
November 27, 2025 at 12:12 PM
📉 The ONS has published stats that say net migration to UK drops 69% year on year
🤓 But we already knew that thanks to @jamesbowes01.bsky.social
You can read his piece predicting the collapse in net migration and its economic and political consequences here 👇
ukandeu.ac.uk/the-coming-c...
🤓 But we already knew that thanks to @jamesbowes01.bsky.social
You can read his piece predicting the collapse in net migration and its economic and political consequences here 👇
ukandeu.ac.uk/the-coming-c...