James Bowes
@jamesbowes01.bsky.social
The top companies sponsoring work visas for people earning over £50,000 in 2024 (excluding health and care). Green is mostly skilled worker visa, blue mostly global business mobility visa and purple mostly temporary workers. Lots of finance, consulting and tech multinationals.
November 23, 2025 at 10:43 AM
The top companies sponsoring work visas for people earning over £50,000 in 2024 (excluding health and care). Green is mostly skilled worker visa, blue mostly global business mobility visa and purple mostly temporary workers. Lots of finance, consulting and tech multinationals.
The new ILR changes mean people on work visas doing jobs at a graduate level qualify for ILR in 3-10 years (depending on salary), but the vast majority of people in jobs below graduate level have to wait 15 years. This is the region of origin of people by skill level for visa grants Oct 24-Jun 25.
November 22, 2025 at 6:20 PM
The new ILR changes mean people on work visas doing jobs at a graduate level qualify for ILR in 3-10 years (depending on salary), but the vast majority of people in jobs below graduate level have to wait 15 years. This is the region of origin of people by skill level for visa grants Oct 24-Jun 25.
Reposted by James Bowes
Why the Home Office’s “earned settlement” proposals are anti-women
1. Dependants are hit hardest, and most dependants in Skilled Worker families are women. They are pushed onto a 10-year route with no acceleration.
1. Dependants are hit hardest, and most dependants in Skilled Worker families are women. They are pushed onto a 10-year route with no acceleration.
November 22, 2025 at 7:14 AM
Why the Home Office’s “earned settlement” proposals are anti-women
1. Dependants are hit hardest, and most dependants in Skilled Worker families are women. They are pushed onto a 10-year route with no acceleration.
1. Dependants are hit hardest, and most dependants in Skilled Worker families are women. They are pushed onto a 10-year route with no acceleration.
Data for high skilled workers entering on a skilled worker visa on pay year ending June 2023. It’s likely they will have had a pay rise since but still looks like a sizeable minority will be pushed onto the 10 year route. Especially engineers, vets, graphic designers and web designers. (1/2)
November 21, 2025 at 11:50 AM
Data for high skilled workers entering on a skilled worker visa on pay year ending June 2023. It’s likely they will have had a pay rise since but still looks like a sizeable minority will be pushed onto the 10 year route. Especially engineers, vets, graphic designers and web designers. (1/2)
Reposted by James Bowes
These comments by @danielsohege.bsky.social are unfortunately pitch-perfect. The idea that the UK is the Chocolate Factory and that there aren't other countries out there in dire need of nurses, doctors, teachers, carers, and so forth is delusional - and it's going to be too late when people realise
All those people, including current government, who falsely claim migrants are to blame for failings with the NHS, along with infrastructure in general, are in for one hell of a shock with how much worse things will get with Labour's anti-immigration policies.
www.theguardian.com/society/2025...
www.theguardian.com/society/2025...
Overseas-trained doctors leaving the UK in record numbers
Medical bodies warn that hostility towards migrants is behind a 26% rise in departures last year that imperils NHS
www.theguardian.com
November 21, 2025 at 9:52 AM
These comments by @danielsohege.bsky.social are unfortunately pitch-perfect. The idea that the UK is the Chocolate Factory and that there aren't other countries out there in dire need of nurses, doctors, teachers, carers, and so forth is delusional - and it's going to be too late when people realise
Reposted by James Bowes
NHS transitioning from becoming a destination workplace to becoming the largest finishing school for the health systems of Aus, Canada, NZ, the gulf states...
November 21, 2025 at 7:48 AM
NHS transitioning from becoming a destination workplace to becoming the largest finishing school for the health systems of Aus, Canada, NZ, the gulf states...
Does anyone know if time as a student or on the graduate visa will count towards the time required to obtain citizenship under the new rules?
November 20, 2025 at 4:21 PM
Does anyone know if time as a student or on the graduate visa will count towards the time required to obtain citizenship under the new rules?
To qualify for ILR in 5 years you’ll need work in a graduate level job and either earn over £50,270 or be in a named public sector job (eg doctor, nurse, teacher). £125,140 qualifies you in 3 years.
Shockingly a 15 year route will apply for people in medium skilled jobs or care workers.
Shockingly a 15 year route will apply for people in medium skilled jobs or care workers.
November 20, 2025 at 1:23 PM
To qualify for ILR in 5 years you’ll need work in a graduate level job and either earn over £50,270 or be in a named public sector job (eg doctor, nurse, teacher). £125,140 qualifies you in 3 years.
Shockingly a 15 year route will apply for people in medium skilled jobs or care workers.
Shockingly a 15 year route will apply for people in medium skilled jobs or care workers.
If 60% of nurses are considering leaving over these changes then it could be even higher in other occupations. Healthcare workers have more secure jobs and lower fees than people working in other industries, including crucially no NHS surcharge.
Today’s anouncement is going to be devastating.
“Keir Starmer has vowed to curb net migration, with plans to force migrants to wait as long as 10 years to apply to settle in the UK instead of automatically gaining settled status after five years.”
www.theguardian.com/society/2025...
“Keir Starmer has vowed to curb net migration, with plans to force migrants to wait as long as 10 years to apply to settle in the UK instead of automatically gaining settled status after five years.”
www.theguardian.com/society/2025...
Up to 50,000 nurses could quit UK over immigration plans, survey suggests
Exclusive: union leaders say proposed changes are immoral and could threaten patient safety if there is staff exodus
www.theguardian.com
November 20, 2025 at 10:56 AM
If 60% of nurses are considering leaving over these changes then it could be even higher in other occupations. Healthcare workers have more secure jobs and lower fees than people working in other industries, including crucially no NHS surcharge.
Updated net migration projection after yesterday‘s update on British citizens emigrating and the lower than expected number of work visa applications in October.
I expect dependant numbers to fall further and we haven’t yet seen the new policies on ILR or salary thresholds so this may fall further.
I expect dependant numbers to fall further and we haven’t yet seen the new policies on ILR or salary thresholds so this may fall further.
November 19, 2025 at 2:18 PM
Updated net migration projection after yesterday‘s update on British citizens emigrating and the lower than expected number of work visa applications in October.
I expect dependant numbers to fall further and we haven’t yet seen the new policies on ILR or salary thresholds so this may fall further.
I expect dependant numbers to fall further and we haven’t yet seen the new policies on ILR or salary thresholds so this may fall further.
It’s worth noting that the majority of refugees who’ve arrived since 2005 will be affected by this as they don’t have ILR or citizenship yet. Numbers were high in the early 90s and early 2000s but were otherwise low until recently.
Keir Starmer's spokesman insisted on Monday that "clearly these changes will not be retrospective" for those already granted asylum, as Reform have been demanding.
Now we learn they will be
inews.co.uk/news/politic...
Now we learn they will be
inews.co.uk/news/politic...
November 19, 2025 at 12:48 PM
It’s worth noting that the majority of refugees who’ve arrived since 2005 will be affected by this as they don’t have ILR or citizenship yet. Numbers were high in the early 90s and early 2000s but were otherwise low until recently.
Reposted by James Bowes
Net migration now estimated to have fallen from 944,000 to 345,000 in Dec ‘24.
Some projections even suggest David Cameron’s old target of “tens of thousands” could be met. ukandeu.ac.uk/the-coming-c...
Some projections even suggest David Cameron’s old target of “tens of thousands” could be met. ukandeu.ac.uk/the-coming-c...
The coming collapse in immigration to the United Kingdom - UK in a changing Europe
James Bowes analyses the fall in net migration to the UK as a result of government policies and explores some of the political and economic consequences.
ukandeu.ac.uk
November 18, 2025 at 12:36 PM
Net migration now estimated to have fallen from 944,000 to 345,000 in Dec ‘24.
Some projections even suggest David Cameron’s old target of “tens of thousands” could be met. ukandeu.ac.uk/the-coming-c...
Some projections even suggest David Cameron’s old target of “tens of thousands” could be met. ukandeu.ac.uk/the-coming-c...
Between this and the lower than expected number of work visa applications in October, it looks like net migration will fall much lower than I predicted (Which was 70,000-170,000 for 2026).
Net migration was 345,000 in 2024, the Office for National Statistics now estimates - 20% lower than its first estimate of 431,000: www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula.... The update includes much higher emigration of British citizens than previously thought.
Improving long-term international migration statistics, updating our methods and estimates - Office for National Statistics
Headline findings and revised estimates from updated data and new methods to estimate long-term international migration of British and EU+ nationals. These are official statistics in development.
www.ons.gov.uk
November 18, 2025 at 10:46 AM
Between this and the lower than expected number of work visa applications in October, it looks like net migration will fall much lower than I predicted (Which was 70,000-170,000 for 2026).
Reposted by James Bowes
MAJOR UPDATE:
Shabana Mahmood has confirmed that there will be an announcement on the earned-settlement (ILR) consultation later this week.
Oh dear God, help us—Skilled Workers, healthcare workers, care workers, BNOs and everyone who came to the UK in good faith under the five-year route to ILR.
Shabana Mahmood has confirmed that there will be an announcement on the earned-settlement (ILR) consultation later this week.
Oh dear God, help us—Skilled Workers, healthcare workers, care workers, BNOs and everyone who came to the UK in good faith under the five-year route to ILR.
November 17, 2025 at 8:20 PM
MAJOR UPDATE:
Shabana Mahmood has confirmed that there will be an announcement on the earned-settlement (ILR) consultation later this week.
Oh dear God, help us—Skilled Workers, healthcare workers, care workers, BNOs and everyone who came to the UK in good faith under the five-year route to ILR.
Shabana Mahmood has confirmed that there will be an announcement on the earned-settlement (ILR) consultation later this week.
Oh dear God, help us—Skilled Workers, healthcare workers, care workers, BNOs and everyone who came to the UK in good faith under the five-year route to ILR.
Reposted by James Bowes
Labour is a “godsend” for Farage says the far-right.
November 16, 2025 at 7:11 AM
Labour is a “godsend” for Farage says the far-right.
Reposted by James Bowes
There is a significant amount of secondary asylum seeking across Europe. Towards the UK has been a tenth of this (2019). (It could rise - for example, if there was data sharing across countries & we were not part of that. 2024-25 patterns show it is unlikely to be for reasons the Home Sec gives)
November 15, 2025 at 8:19 AM
There is a significant amount of secondary asylum seeking across Europe. Towards the UK has been a tenth of this (2019). (It could rise - for example, if there was data sharing across countries & we were not part of that. 2024-25 patterns show it is unlikely to be for reasons the Home Sec gives)
Reposted by James Bowes
"Oi, I know we expect you not to riot as we continue to barrel towards you all losing your jobs in three years BUT we expect you to line up to be labelled racists for the rest of your professional lives whilst we do so."
Starmer cabinet really just trying to inspire revolt at this point.
Starmer cabinet really just trying to inspire revolt at this point.
NEW: Labour MPs are pushing back against the Home Office's robust 'Danish-style' asylum & immigration plans. One MP: “The policy of chasing Reform will not build confidence but fear". Another: “Weak governments don’t get to push through controversial policy.”
www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025...
www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025...
No 10 tells Labour MPs it expects support for tough new asylum policies
Some backbenchers already opposing planned immigration crackdown seen as ‘economically and culturally illiterate’
www.theguardian.com
November 14, 2025 at 5:41 PM
"Oi, I know we expect you not to riot as we continue to barrel towards you all losing your jobs in three years BUT we expect you to line up to be labelled racists for the rest of your professional lives whilst we do so."
Starmer cabinet really just trying to inspire revolt at this point.
Starmer cabinet really just trying to inspire revolt at this point.
An update on one of the graphs in my recent article about falling immigration. Visa applications have fallen further this month, suggesting the 46,000 fall in the white paper from the July changes was an underestimate. Even before an inevitable drop in dependant numbers over time.
November 13, 2025 at 10:18 AM
An update on one of the graphs in my recent article about falling immigration. Visa applications have fallen further this month, suggesting the 46,000 fall in the white paper from the July changes was an underestimate. Even before an inevitable drop in dependant numbers over time.
Reposted by James Bowes
A key recent discussion about UK migration has been people's rights to settle permanemently - or "indefinite leave to remain" - but how many people have this status? Our latest piece gives you the info (NB - doesn't include EU settlement scheme) migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/co...
How many migrants in the UK have settlement? - Migration Observatory
This commentary estimates the number of non-EU citizens who currently have settlement, also known as indefinite leave to remain (ILR).
migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk
November 10, 2025 at 1:29 PM
A key recent discussion about UK migration has been people's rights to settle permanemently - or "indefinite leave to remain" - but how many people have this status? Our latest piece gives you the info (NB - doesn't include EU settlement scheme) migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/co...
Here’s my net migration model projected forwards two years (plus past figures). Net migration actually looks like hovering at about 300,000 in 2025 before coming crashing down in 2026. The government must avoid the temptation to cut immigration even further when they see these figures. (1/2)
November 7, 2025 at 1:09 PM
Here’s my net migration model projected forwards two years (plus past figures). Net migration actually looks like hovering at about 300,000 in 2025 before coming crashing down in 2026. The government must avoid the temptation to cut immigration even further when they see these figures. (1/2)
Reposted by James Bowes
Yesterday I helped give a presentation on immigration law options to a room full of people trapped by the Health and Care Visa.
Promised work, paid £££, unable to work and can't find new sponsors.
This crisis i wrote a thread on 5 months ago isn't going away.
Promised work, paid £££, unable to work and can't find new sponsors.
This crisis i wrote a thread on 5 months ago isn't going away.
The debate around care visas in the political space boils down to people saying stuff like this - we desperately need people.
It's a good soundbite but...
A significant surge in care visas were issued since 2020 in response to sector demand and yet the problem of shortage has persisted.
Why?
It's a good soundbite but...
A significant surge in care visas were issued since 2020 in response to sector demand and yet the problem of shortage has persisted.
Why?
BREAKING: “We will be closing the care worker visa for overseas recruitment” - Home Secretary Yvette Cooper
Don’t we have a desperate shortage of care workers?
Don’t we have a desperate shortage of care workers?
November 7, 2025 at 7:53 AM
Yesterday I helped give a presentation on immigration law options to a room full of people trapped by the Health and Care Visa.
Promised work, paid £££, unable to work and can't find new sponsors.
This crisis i wrote a thread on 5 months ago isn't going away.
Promised work, paid £££, unable to work and can't find new sponsors.
This crisis i wrote a thread on 5 months ago isn't going away.
Reposted by James Bowes
"Home Office data suggests that recent immigrants are more likely to be working than British nationals and make higher wages than them."
✍️ Lauren Gilbert argues that migrants to the UK are net fiscal contributors, adding much more to the economy than they take out,
ukandeu.ac.uk/lower-migrat...
✍️ Lauren Gilbert argues that migrants to the UK are net fiscal contributors, adding much more to the economy than they take out,
ukandeu.ac.uk/lower-migrat...
Lower migration is bad news for the UK economy - UK in a changing Europe
Lauren Gilbert argues that migrants to the UK are net fiscal contributors, adding much more to the economy than they take out, and that the recent collapse in immigration will harm the UK's economic p...
ukandeu.ac.uk
November 6, 2025 at 4:52 PM
"Home Office data suggests that recent immigrants are more likely to be working than British nationals and make higher wages than them."
✍️ Lauren Gilbert argues that migrants to the UK are net fiscal contributors, adding much more to the economy than they take out,
ukandeu.ac.uk/lower-migrat...
✍️ Lauren Gilbert argues that migrants to the UK are net fiscal contributors, adding much more to the economy than they take out,
ukandeu.ac.uk/lower-migrat...
Reposted by James Bowes
On 4 November, the Home Affairs Committee met with the Migration Advisory Committee to discuss the proposed changes to ILR. They brought up some very interesting points.
Part 1
Part 1
November 6, 2025 at 10:16 AM
On 4 November, the Home Affairs Committee met with the Migration Advisory Committee to discuss the proposed changes to ILR. They brought up some very interesting points.
Part 1
Part 1
Reposted by James Bowes
The far right want you to believe that immigration causes an explosion of crime.
It's simply untrue.
Crime has gone down - and crucially, we are a markedly less violent society than we once were.
It's simply untrue.
Crime has gone down - and crucially, we are a markedly less violent society than we once were.
November 5, 2025 at 8:30 AM
The far right want you to believe that immigration causes an explosion of crime.
It's simply untrue.
Crime has gone down - and crucially, we are a markedly less violent society than we once were.
It's simply untrue.
Crime has gone down - and crucially, we are a markedly less violent society than we once were.
People from these 80 overseas universities are now eligible for a 2 year work visa with the right to bring dependants. But if they studied at even a top ranking British university they’d have no right to bring dependants and from 2027 will be limited to 18 months. www.gov.uk/government/p...
High Potential Individual visa: global universities list 2025
www.gov.uk
November 4, 2025 at 2:37 PM
People from these 80 overseas universities are now eligible for a 2 year work visa with the right to bring dependants. But if they studied at even a top ranking British university they’d have no right to bring dependants and from 2027 will be limited to 18 months. www.gov.uk/government/p...