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Jonathan Portes

@jdportes.bsky.social

63K followers 610 following 4.1K posts

Professor of Economics and Public Policy, King's College London; Senior Fellow, UK in a Changing Europe. Immigration, economics, public policy. Personal views only; usual disclaimers apply. Books: Immigration (Sage), Capitalism (Quercus) .. more

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Jonathan Daniel Portes is a professor of Economics and Public Policy at the School of Politics & Economics of King's College, London and a senior fellow at UK in a Changing Europe.

Source: Wikipedia

Political science 31%

Economics 28%

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Reposted by Jonathan Portes

Sunder Katwala (sundersays) @sundersays.bsky.social · 1h

X is doing nothing about antisemitic abuse & hatred in the last week. (It is a breach of its legal duties to fail to offer an equal service to those with a protected characteristic, if the regulators want to do their job of keeping it within the law)

www.thejc.com/news/uk/excl...

EXCLUSIVE: Study reveals flood of blood-curdling Jew-hate following Manchester attack - The Jewish Chronicle

The Centre for Countering Digital Hate analysed social media posts following last week’s atrocity

www.thejc.com

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Jonathan Portes @jdportes.bsky.social · 5h

...but the fundamental error here (as with many other articles blaming fiscal framework and/or OBR) is that these are 2nd order issues.

Ultimately, it's fiscal sustainability (as judged by markets short-term that's the constraint. The UK needs some combination of higher growth and higher taxes...

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Jonathan Portes @jdportes.bsky.social · 5h

No link/reference for this - but it's implausible to blame Brexit-related *uncertainty* (as opposed to the actual impacts of Brexit itself!) for knocking off 2% of GDP.

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https://www.ft.com/content/1c4de788-6fbc-4ed7-ab5d-41b4d570e542

It is well established that policy uncertainty of this type lowers growth and jobs and raises borrowing costs. The average rise in UK policy uncertainty since last year’s Budget is more than one standard deviation. Based on past studies, that would knock around 0.5-2 per cent off UK growth in the near term. Negative effects on business investment are larger still, at around 3-5 per cent, and longer lasting.

The path and peak of UK policy uncertainty over the past year eerily mimics the pattern at the time of the Brexit referendum. The uncertainty effects of the latter are estimated to have reduced UK GDP by 1.5-2.5 per cent and business investment by 3-6 per cent in the years after it. We are already beginning to see the effects in subdued sentiment, and higher precautionary saving, among UK businesses and consumers.

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Jonathan Portes @jdportes.bsky.social · 5h

This from Andy Haldane gets some basic stuff wrong, notably this:

"A £30bn will need to be filled in this year’s Budget,e ven though a stalled economy needs a 1% of GDP fiscal tightening like a hole in the head."

Just wrong. Not how the fiscal framework works at all.

www.ft.com/content/1c4d...

The UK’s failing fiscal framework is a Brexit tribute act

The path and peak of policy uncertainty over the past year eerily mimics sentiment at the time of the 2016 referendum

www.ft.com

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Jonathan Portes @jdportes.bsky.social · 5h

I wouldn't claim to be making an evidence-based assessment but my reading is the editorial line has been very Islamophobic for a long time but that the obsession with trans people is newer, and the virulently anti-immigration/xenophobia is really down to Gallagher (since 2022)

Jonathan Portes @jdportes.bsky.social · 5h

It's pretty obvious what I meant to anyone who knows the history here (several people posted it).

Reposted by Jonathan Portes

Sarah Elizabeth Cox @oispooky.bsky.social · 8h

This month in 1909 -

Lady Wrestler Violet Stanley, who had recently performed at the Agricultural Hall, Islington was imprisoned for three months for keeping a brothel. She was later done for sex work as Emily Baillie, and in 1911 for using counterfeit coins in Newcastle as Rose Daley.

LADY WRESTLER SENT TO PRISON At the Clerkenwell Police-court on Saturday afternoon, Bertram Young, 26, described as a salesman, and Violet Stanley, 22, a “lady wrestler,” were charged with assisting in the management of a brothel at Caledonian-road, between the 11th and 17th September. Mr Bramall prosecuted for the Islington Borough Council, and Mr. Harry Ricketts appeared for the defence. Sub-divisional Inspector Rogers, G division, executed the warrant, after the usual police observation, and in the coarse of the case it was stated that both the prisoners had travelled the country as wrestlers - the lady having given an exhibition side show in the Agricultural hall. The couple had cohabited together. When the police raided the premises in Caledonian-road a loaded revolver, ready cocked, and two "life preservers” were found there.

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Reposted by Jonathan Portes

Tim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 10h

"The wealth tax debate shouldn’t be separate from the one about how we tax property and pensions – that’s where most of the country’s wealth sits." c/o @resfoundation.bsky.social Bet it will continue to be, though. 🙄

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Reposted by Jonathan Portes

Nell Henderson @nellhenderson.bsky.social · 10h

Must see TV: PIIE’s Adam S. Posen on why inflation impact from tariffs and deportations has been lagged www.piie.com/newsroom/sho...

Adam S. Posen on why inflation impact from tariffs and deportations has been lagged

Adam S. Posen explains at the Peterson Institute for International Economics Global Economic Prospects Fall 2025 event the effects of US policies like tariffs and deportations on inflation, the labor ...

www.piie.com

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Reposted by Jonathan Portes

Giles Wilkes @gilesyb.bsky.social · 11h

"One study attributes 30-50% of American productivity gains between 1990 and 2010 to skilled migrants. When it shuts the door to mobile talent, America is giving up one of the main ingredients of its success."
www.economist.com/leaders/2025...
From The Economist

Donald Trump’s fortress economy is starting to hurt America

The pain from trade and immigration restrictions cannot be postponed forever

www.economist.com

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Reposted by Jonathan Portes, Rafael H. M. Pereira

Diane Coyle @dianecoyle1859.bsky.social · 12h

High-profile departures from the US - congrats to @econ.uzh.ch

Department of Economics @Universität Zürich 🇨🇭 @econ.uzh.ch · 12h

We are thrilled to welcome Esther Duflo and Abhijit Banerjee as the new Lemann Foundation Professors to our department, beginning in the summer of 2026.

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Reposted by Diane Coyle, Jonathan Portes, Sascha O. Becker , and 6 more Diane Coyle, Jonathan Portes, Sascha O. Becker, Stefanie Walter, Gernot Wagner, Maya Sen, Kai Gehring, Simon Wiederhold, Colm O’Cinneíde

Department of Economics @Universität Zürich 🇨🇭 @econ.uzh.ch · 12h

We are thrilled to welcome Esther Duflo and Abhijit Banerjee as the new Lemann Foundation Professors to our department, beginning in the summer of 2026.

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Reposted by Jonathan Portes

Ewan McGaughey @ewanmg.bsky.social · 14h

🌹 "Democratic socialism and the law" is the topic of my inaugural lecture - next Wednesday 6.30pm, Great Hall, King's College, London.

➡️ Come along! There's even a reception afterwards. Check out the abstract, and register free here: www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/inaugural-...

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Reposted by Jonathan Portes

Tim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 14h

Just realised, listening to @thetwomatts.bsky.social pod this week, that I forgot to recommend this fab piece on Bobby J by @youngvulgarian.marieleconte.com, written before his 'another white face' schtick but very telling anyway.

Robert Jenrick, the hollow man

He heads into the Conservative conference as the stricken party’s likely next leader. But this opportunistic ‘saviour’ could kill off the Tories completely

www.thenewworld.co.uk

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Reposted by Jonathan Portes

Sunder Katwala (sundersays) @sundersays.bsky.social · 14h

Unrolled thresd: on claims to have workable, costed Trump-style mass deportation plans from the Conservatives and Restore Britain

What are they each claiming for their plans?

skywriter.blue/pages/did:pl...

Page by Sunder Katwala (sundersays) | @sundersays.bsky.social

The Conservatives have pledged they will increase the number of deportations to 150k/year - while significantly reducing the size of the civil service - without increasing government spending and tax...

skywriter.blue

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Reposted by Jonathan Portes

Omar Khan @omaromalleykhan.bsky.social · 15h

A well known 1983 election poster

42 yrs on, the opposing view 'You can't be British/English if you're Black' is still defended. Powell & the Monday Club did then call for *voluntary* repatriation, a view the Thatcher govt rejected

Many of course disagree(d) w/the poster's claims for other reasons

1983 Conservative election poster stating 'Labour Says He's Black. Tories Say He's British', outlining how their policies will create 'a more equal, more prosperous Britain'

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Jonathan Portes @jdportes.bsky.social · 15h

LOL.

You, falsely, claimed that Canada rolled over the deal and we got *exactly the same benefits*

Alan, correctly, pointed out they didn't, and we got a worse deal - which *you yourself have admitted*

Why continue to humiliate yourself like this? .

Reposted by Jonathan Portes

Na'amod @naamoduk.bsky.social · 1d

As we came together this evening to mourn all the lives lost on and since the 7th of October, we share in the fragile hope of Palestinians and Israelis welcoming the announcement of a ceasefire and hostage deal that will see Israeli and Palestinian families reunite with their loved ones.

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Reposted by Jonathan Portes, Olúfẹ́mi Táíwò

Emissary Of Night | ليلى @diplomatofnight.com · 1d

Netanyahu's mouthpiece, Amit Segal, casually admits on Twitter that his country has been holding 1,700 people from Gaza hostage, including children.

Among other things, according to the decision:

- 250 security prisoners will be released.
- 1,700 residents of the Gaza Strip who were not involved in the events of October 7 and were arrested after the massacre will be released.
- 22 minors under the age of 18, residents of the Gaza Strip who were not involved in the events of October 7 and were arrested after the massacre, will be released.
- 360 bodies of terrorists will be returned.

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Reposted by Jonathan Portes

Emissary Of Night | ليلى @diplomatofnight.com · 1d

"I just think armed resistance to military occupation and apartheid is futile, no I don't support cutting off trade with Israel or imposing arm embargoes or doing any boycotts either" is the exact same thing as "I support Ukraine but wish Ukraine would give up all of its territory for peace".

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Reposted by Jonathan Portes, Gavin A. Schmidt, Alfie Kohn , and 2 more Jonathan Portes, Gavin A. Schmidt, Alfie Kohn, Simon Lester, Dan Immergluck

David Roberts @volts.wtf · 1d

It really can't be said enough: the goal of the "anti-woke" movement was always to destroy social norms against bigotry. And it worked. And there's a whole lot of purportedly "left" thinkers & commentators who helped it -- indeed, it couldn't have been done without them.

They should feel bad.

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Reposted by Jonathan Portes, Lesley A. Hall

Sophie Molly @sophiemolly.co.uk · 1d

www.thepinknews.com/2025/10/09/n...

17-year-old trans girl's suicide over NHS wait times was preventable says coroner

A 17-year-old trans girl's death by suicide over NHS wait times could have been prevented with swift intervention, a coroner has ruled.

www.thepinknews.com

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Jonathan Portes @jdportes.bsky.social · 1d

must have been up early to find it without the usual huge crowds..

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Reposted by Jonathan Portes

Anna Clarke @annaclarke.bsky.social · 1d

Latest stats on greenbelt land published today - I think people are always surprised by this map, which shows that the large majority of land across England is neither built up, nor greenbelt. Most of it's just ordinary, unprotected farmland. www.gov.uk/government/s...

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Jonathan Portes @jdportes.bsky.social · 1d

don't know about "forever", but entirely agree that was both wrong on substance and presentation

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Reposted by Jonathan Portes, Will Jennings, Anand Menon , and 1 more Jonathan Portes, Will Jennings, Anand Menon, Jill Rutter

UK in a Changing Europe @ukandeu.bsky.social · 1d

"Are they [MRPs] any use to anyone at this stage of the Parliament? No! Do something more useful. Stop producing these polls. They're not magic."

Expert pollster @psurridge.bsky.social reflects on polls and electoral reform

Catch up on the discussion in full here 👇 www.youtube.com/live/ivRLHUb...

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Jonathan Portes @jdportes.bsky.social · 1d

Sigh. If you can't/don't want to address the Windrush point that Stephen and others have made, fine, but why make a fool of yourself like this? Embarrassing. Let's leave it.

Jonathan Portes @jdportes.bsky.social · 1d

It's very easy to turn that round. If people are deported /made homeless because of the lack of a secure govt id recording system will *you* be saying the same thing?

Oh wait. That already happened.

I broadly agree with @stephenkb.bsky.social here.

www.ft.com/content/4c35...

Online safety demands trust — ministers should not outsource it

Age verification is needed but government, rather than tech companies, should be responsible for developing tools

www.ft.com

Reposted by Jonathan Portes

Yair Wallach @yairwallach.bsky.social · 1d

Make no mistake. Those who spearheaded the Gaza genocide will try to relaunch it in a more ruthless manner, at the earliest opportunity.
They will fail only if there will be an alternative vision, one of recognition, life and equality for everyone.

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Reposted by Jonathan Portes

James Austin @jamesdaustin.bsky.social · 1d

And, you know, the whole war crimes thing.

So, so many reasons he should spend the rest of his life in jail - along with most members of this Israeli govt

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